Millionaires or Job Creators: What Really Happens to Employment Growth When You Stick It to the Rich?

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-141
Author(s):  
Ahiteme N. Houndonougbo ◽  
Matthew N. Murray
Keyword(s):  
Employment Growth ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Tax Changes

We provide empirical evidence on the consequences of relatively higher tax burdens on the rich for aggregate employment growth using a newly constructed time series for 1947 through 2011 derived from the US Statistics of Income. In response to shifts in the relative federal tax burden toward the rich, we find statistically significant positive effects on employment growth in the short run and some evidence of negative effects on employment growth in the long run. Among our robustness checks, we use the Romer and Romer narrative record analysis to restrict our sample to a period of exclusively exogenous tax changes. The results hold in the restricted sample and are also consistent across alternative specifications and estimation methods, including unrestricted and Bayesian vector autoregressive.

scholarly journals NAFTA, Social Unionism, and Labour Movement Power in Canada and the United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Robinson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Labour Movement ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Negative Impacts

This paper considers how the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is likely to affect labour movement power in Canada and the United States. The paper is divided into four parts. It first defines the concept of « labour movement power », breaking it down into its component parts. It next considers why we should care about what happens to labour movement power. It then outlines the principal negative and positive effects that the NAFTA is likely to have on labour movement power. Attention is also given to the beneficial consequences that the fight against the NAFTA has already had for the labour movement. It is argued that the NAFTA 's negative impacts are likely to outweight its positive ones in the short run and that the positive effects could substantially outweight its negative effects over the medium to long run. Whether it does will depend upon choices made in the next few years by labour movement leaders and activists.

scholarly journals Do Human Capital Investment and Technological Innovation Have a Permanent Effect on Population Health? An Asymmetric Analysis of BRICS Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang-Gao Hu ◽  
Li-Peng Yao
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Health ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Human Capital Investment ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the asymmetric impact of human capital investment, and technological innovation on population health from the years spanning from 1991 to 2019, by using a panel of the BRICS countries. For this purpose, we have employed the PMG panel NARDL approach, which captures the long-run and short-run dynamics of the concerned variables. The empirical results show that human capital investment and technological innovation indeed happen to exert asymmetric effects on the dynamics of health in BRICS countries. Findings also reveal that increased human capital investment and technological innovation have positive effects on health, while the deceased human capital investment and technological innovation tend to have negative effects on population health in the long run. Based on these revelations, some policy recommendations have been proposed for BRICS economies.

scholarly journals Multi-Factor Crime in Malaysia, 1980 – 2013: Bounds Testing of Level Relationships and Granger Non-Causality Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Dullah Mulok ◽  
Mori Kogid ◽  
Rozilee Asid ◽  
Jaratin Lily
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the relationship between criminal activities and the multi-macroeconomic factors of economic growth, unemployment, poverty, population and inflation in Malaysia from 1980 to 2013. The ARDL bounds testing of the level relationship was used to establish the long-run relation, and the Toda-Yamamoto Augmented VAR approach was used to test the short-run impact based on partial Granger non-causality analysis. Empirical results suggest that economic growth, inflation, poverty and population are significant factors affecting criminal activities in Malaysia with economic growth and poverty recording positive effects, whereas negative effects were recorded for inflation and population in the long-term. Further investigation using Granger non-causality analysis revealed that only population does Granger caused the criminal activities in the short-run. The findings provide useful information for policymakers to strengthen the existing crime-related policies in order to improve safety and security while maintaining economic sustainability in Malaysia.

scholarly journals When the Poor Buy the Rich: New Evidence on Wealth Effects of Cross-Border Acquisitions

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Hong-Hai Ho ◽  
Thi-Hanh Vu ◽  
Ngoc-Tien Dao ◽  
Manh-Tung Ho ◽  
Quan-Hoang Vuong
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Merging And Acquisition

The growing trend of merging and acquisition (M&A) investments from emerging to developed market economies over the last two decades motivates the question on the long-run effects of M&A on the wealth of emerging markets. This paper contributes to the current literature on cross-border M&A (CBMA) by focusing on the long-term effects of this event on the bidder’s stock return in emerging markets. To address the challenges of finding an accurate measure for the effects, this study applies the propensity score matching framework in tandem with difference-in-differences (DID) on a comprehensive dataset over the 1990–2010 period. The analyses show evidence of systematic detrimental impacts of cross-border M&A on shareholders’ welfare in the long run, to a certain extent, diverging from the existing literature, which mainly highlights the positive effects for certain types of M&A. The striking finding is that such strong negative effects remain persistent even when various factors previously known as capable of suppressing underperformance are considered. Our study is in line with the growing landscape of cross-border mergers and acquisitions from the “poor” to the “rich” countries.

Does Energy Constraint Facilitate the Japanese Technical Change?

2013 ◽  
Vol 664 ◽  
pp. 1166-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hong ◽  
Jia Lin Guan ◽  
Hong Wei Su
Keyword(s):  
Technical Change ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Energy Costs ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run

This study challenges the traditional wisdom that soaring energy prices exert negative effects upon economic growth. For an industrialized country with very tight energy supply constraints, increasing energy costs may drive the firms to seek for technical change and innovation to compete internationally. Using the Japanese monthly data ranging from 1975 to 2010, this study tests for the assumption of endogenous cost-driven technical change. We identify a long-run equilibrium co-integrating relationship among the Japanese industrial production, energy prices, export volumes and export prices. Although energy prices are negatively associated with Japanese industrial production in static equilibrium, the results of Granger causality tests show that an increase in domestic energy costs has significantly positive effects on Japan’s industrial production as well as on export volumes and prices, in both short-run and long-run. We document that the seemingly paradox strongly suggests an endogenous technological change driven by energy costs in Japan.

Effect van de COVID-19 pandemie op geluk in Nederland

2021 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-330
Author(s):  
Ruut Veenhoven ◽  
Martijn Burger ◽  
Emma Pleeging
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Dutch Population ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Happy Life ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Short Run

Abstract Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on happiness in The Netherlands In the media we read mainly about negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on our subjective wellbeing, such as increased depression, anxiety and loneliness. There is less attention for possible positive effects and for this reason it is worth examining how the life-satisfaction of the Dutch population has developed during the pandemic. In the short run, this will help policy makers to balance loss of happiness against loss of lives and in the long run it will help to examine which policies have resulted in the lowest loss of happy life years. In this article, we describe observed effects on happiness in the Netherlands during the pandemic (until spring 2021) using three empirical approaches: 1) trend in subsequent survey studies, 2) analysis of a panel study, and 3) analysis of a dairy study in which mood during daily activities was measured. Average life-satisfaction declined by about 4% of which 3% between summer 2020 and spring 2021. Whereas in the early days of the pandemic, the Dutch population only reported a minor loss of happiness, the decline has become substantial at the end of the road.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Co-integration with score-driven models: an application to US real GDP growth, US inflation rate, and effective federal funds rate

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Szabolcs Blazsek ◽  
Alvaro Escribano ◽  
Adrian Licht
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us

Abstract Nonlinear co-integration is studied for score-driven models, using a new multivariate dynamic conditional score/generalized autoregressive score model. The model is named t-QVARMA (quasi-vector autoregressive moving average model), which is a location model for the multivariate t-distribution. In t-QVARMA, I(0) and co-integrated I(1) components of the dependent variables are included. For t-QVARMA, the conditions of the maximum likelihood estimator and impulse response functions (IRFs) are presented. A limiting special case of t-QVARMA, named Gaussian-QVARMA, is a Gaussian-VARMA specification with I(0) and I(1) components. As an empirical application, the US real gross domestic product growth, US inflation rate, and effective federal funds rate are studied for the period of 1954 Q3 to 2020 Q2. Statistical performance and predictive accuracy of t-QVARMA are superior to those of Gaussian-VAR. Estimates of the short-run IRF, long-run IRF, and total IRF impacts for the US data are reported.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Keynesian Theory of Employment and Sectoral Job Creation: The Case of the South African Manufacturing Sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-143
Author(s):  
Thomas Habanabakize ◽  
Paul-Francois Muzindutsi
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
The South ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Integration Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Investment Spending

Abstract The manufacturing sector is one of the backbones of the South African economy, and yet is one of the economic sectors facing challenges in job creation. This study analysed the long-run and short-run effects of aggregate expenditure components on job creation in the South African manufacturing sector. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) with Johansen co-integration approach was used to analyse quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. The findings are that there is a long-run relationship between aggregate expenditure and job creation in the South African manufacturing sector, with government and investment spending being the major components of aggregate expenditure that create jobs in the South African manufacturing sector. Conversely, consumption spending destroys jobs in the manufacturing sector, while net exports have no significant effect on job creation. The short-run relationship between variables was not significant. Recommendations are that more effort should be put into investment spending, and government should spend more on investment than on consumption spending - in order to increase job creation in the manufacturing sector.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate on Stock Market Returns Volatility in India.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nenavath Sre ◽  
Suresh Naik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract The paper investigates the effect of exchange and inflation rate on stock market returns in India. The study uses monthly, quarterly and annual inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the RBI and market returns computed from the Indian share market index from January, 2000 to June, 2020.The paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model for investigating the effect on Indian Stock markets. The GARCH and its corresponding Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to explore the long- and short-run relationship between the India Stock market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The paper shows that there exists a long term relationship but there is no short-run relationship between Indian market returns and inflation. But, there is periodicity of inflation monthly considerable long run and short-run relationship between them existed. The outcome also illustrates a significant short-run relationship between NSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for short run and it was significantly shown the positive effects on the stock market returns and making it a desirable attribute of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.

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