A Replication of “The Robust Relationship between Taxes and US State Income Growth” (National Tax Journal 2008)

Using state-level data from 1970 to 1999 and a five-year interval approach, Reed provides robust evidence that taxes have a negative effect on state economic growth. Subsequent work by Gale, Krupkin, and Rueben uses more recent data, ending with the five-year period around the Great Recession, and provides evidence that the relationship is not stable. We take a systematic approach to replicating and then updating Reed to include the most recent data possible to see whether the relationship is sensitive to the time period considered. Our analyses corroborate Reed’s findings of a consistently negative and often statistically significant effect of taxes on state economic growth but also suggest that the long-run effects no longer exist in more current years.

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The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature

The Review of Black Political Economy ◽

10.1177/0034644619833655 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 45 (4) ◽

pp. 339-357

Author(s):

Talknice Saungweme ◽

Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Public Debt ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Empirical Studies ◽

Theoretical Models ◽

Empirical Literature ◽

Long Run ◽

Negative Effect ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

This article provides a detailed survey of existing theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of public debt on economic growth in both developing and developed economies. The aim of the article is to add to the existing debate on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in world economies. The survey finds diverse and, in some cases, inconsistent evidence on the relative impact of public debt on economic growth. Although the majority of the surveyed literature supports the negative effect of public debt on economic growth, several other studies have found a long-run positive impact of public debt on economic growth through the fiscal multiplier effect. The article also found that a few other studies support the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH), which states that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is nonexistent. On balance, the article also found that there is a growing body of empirical evidence, which supports the presence of threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and economic growth. Overall, it concludes that theoretical models and empirical studies yield inconclusive results depending on a set of heterogeneous factors, including the level of development of the sampled countries, data coverage, methodology used, and the researchers’ choice of control variables, among other factors. This literature survey differs predominantly from other earlier studies in that it provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between government debt and economic growth, in addition to disentangling public debt into two components, domestic and foreign, and expounding on their relative effects on economic growth.

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Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

Journal of Emerging Economies and Islamic Research ◽

10.24191/jeeir.v5i2.8801 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 16

Author(s):

Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽

Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽

Azlina Hanif

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Energy Use ◽

Electricity Consumption ◽

Panel Estimation ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Long Run ◽

Bidirectional Relationship ◽

Short Run ◽

Using Data ◽

The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

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ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan ◽

10.30908/bilp.v11i1.185 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 1-20

Author(s):

Ari Mulianta Ginting

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Export Performance ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Correction Model ◽

Administration System ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Available Information ◽

Increasing Trends ◽

The Relationship

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

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Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Nexus in Beijing, China

Economies ◽

10.3390/economies7010025 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 25 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Yang Songling ◽

Muhammad Ishtiaq ◽

Bui Thi Thanh

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

Strong Support ◽

Growth Index ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Var Model ◽

Long Run ◽

The Relationship ◽

Beijing China

In the developing economy, tourism is the most visible and steadiest growing facade. Tourism is considered one of the rapidly increasing elements for economic development from the last two decades. Therefore, the proposed study used vector autoregression (VAR) model, error correction model (ECM), and the Granger causality to check the relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth based on the data of the Beijing municipal bureau of statistics from 1994 to 2015. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a replacement variable for the economic growth index, while internal tourism revenue is used as a tourism industry indicator. The study supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis proposed in the existing literature in a different survey of tourism and economic development. The results show that there is a strong relationship in the tourism industry and economic growth in the context of Beijing, and at the same time, tourism creates a more significant increase in long run local real economic accomplishments. The results of the VAR model confirm that in the long run, Beijing’s economic growth is affected by domestic tourism, while the ECM model shows unidirectional results in the short term. Similarly, there is a one-way causal relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth in Beijing, China. The empirical results are in strong support of the concept that tourism causes growth.

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Non-bank financial institutions and economic growth: Evidence from Africa’s three largest economies

South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences ◽

10.4102/sajems.v20i1.1545 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ronald Rateiwa ◽

Meshach J. Aziakpono

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Financial Institutions ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Bank Lending ◽

Series Data ◽

The Sustainable Development ◽

Long Run ◽

The Relationship

Background: In order for the post-2015 world development agenda – termed the sustainable development goals (SDGs) – to succeed, there is a pronounced need to ensure that available resources are used more effectively and additional financing is accessed from the private sector. Given that traditional bank lending has slowed down, the development of non-bank financing has become imperative. To this end, this article intends to empirically test the role of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in stimulating economic growth.Aim: The aim of this article is to empirically test the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the development of NBFIs, and the causality thereof.Setting: The empirical assessment uses time-series data from Africa’s three largest economies, namely, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, over the period 1971–2013.Methods: This article uses the Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model within a country-specific setting.Results: The results showed that the long-run relationship between NBFI development and economic growth is relatively stronger in Egypt and South Africa, than in Nigeria. Evidence in respect of Nigeria shows that such a relationship is weak. The nature of the relationship between NBFI development and economic growth in Egypt is positive and significant, and predominantly bidirectional. This suggests that a virtuous relationship between NBFIs and economic growth exists in Egypt. In South Africa, the relationship is positive and significant and predominantly runs from NBFI development to economic growth, implying a supply-leading phenomenon. In Nigeria, the results are weak and mixed.Conclusion: The study concludes that in countries with more developed financial systems, the role of NBFIs and their importance to the economic growth process are more pronounced. Thus, there is need for developing policies targeted at developing the NBFI sector, given their potential to contribute to economic growth.

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A NOTE ON INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND INCOME INEQUALITY

Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽

10.1017/s1365100508070491 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 138-147 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Yi Jin

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Income Inequality ◽

Endogenous Growth ◽

Money Growth ◽

Relative Importance ◽

Long Run ◽

Endogenous Growth Model ◽

The Relationship ◽

Negative Growth

This paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model with capital and skill heterogeneity to analyze the relationship among inflation, growth, and income inequality. In the model inflation, growth, and inequality are jointly determined. We show that an increase in the long-run money growth rate raises inflation and reduces growth, but its effect on income inequality depends on the relative importance of the two types of heterogeneity. Inequality shrinks with the rise of inflation when capital heterogeneity dominates and enlarges when skill heterogeneity dominates. Therefore, our model supports a negative (positive) inflation–inequality relationship and a positive (negative) growth–inequality relationship when capital (skill) heterogeneity dominates. In any event, inflation and growth are negatively related.

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The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies ◽

10.1108/ajems-06-2021-0291 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽

Asrat Tsegaye ◽

Kin Sibanda

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Financial Development ◽

Granger Causality Test ◽

Causality Test ◽

Content Type ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

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Can One Promote a Delegation of the Bilateral Aid to Multilateral Donors to Improve Foreign Aid Effect on Economic Growth in ECOWAS (Note 1) Countries?

Advances in Politics and Economics ◽

10.22158/ape.v2n1p51 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 51

Author(s):

W. Jean Marie Kébré

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Panel Data ◽

Least Squares ◽

Foreign Aid ◽

Bilateral Aid ◽

Multilateral Aid ◽

Multilateral Institutions ◽

Negative Effect ◽

High Degree ◽

The Relationship

This article analyzes the relationship between external aid and economic growth in the ECOWAS region, with a focus on bilateral and multilateral aid effects. The key idea behind this analysis is an argument of Svensson (2000) that multilateral aid is more effective than bilateral aid because of the high degree of altruism of bilateral donors. He therefore suggested a delegation of bilateral aid to multilateral institutions. To appreciate his suggestion, this analysis used panel data from the 16 ECOWAS countries from the period 1984 to 2014. The results of the estimates, based on the dynamic least squares estimator (DOLS), show a negative effect of foreign aid on economic growth. This negative effect on economic growth persists when the components of aid are introduced into the model. In addition, results highlight that governance is a channel through which foreign aid affect positively economic growth. In these conditions, bilateral aid is more effective on economic growth than multilateral aid. These results about foreign aid received by ECOWAS countries invalidates Svensson’s (<a title="Svensson, 2000 #5" href="#_ENREF_1">2000</a>) theory. Therefore, a delegation of bilateral aid to multilateral institutions is not relevant because bilateral aid contributes more to economic growth if governance is taken into account.

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PENGARUH KORUPSI, DEMOKRASI DAN POLITIK TERHADAP KEMISKINAN DI DELAPAN NEGARA ASEAN DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI

Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/jkep.v1i3.7711 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 845

Author(s):

Yolanda Yolanda

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Predictor Variable ◽

Combination Method ◽

Annual Reports ◽

Series Data ◽

Transparency International ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Asean Countries ◽

The Relationship

This study aims the influence of corruption, democracy and politics on poverty in ASEAN countries with economic growth as a moderating variable. The method used is using the panel regression model. This data uses a combination method between time series data from 2013 - 2016 and a cross section consisting of 8 countries. Data obtained from World Bank annual reports, Transparency International and Freedom House. The results of this study indicate that (1) Corruption Perception Index (CPI) has a significant and negative effect on poverty, meaning that if the CPI increases then poverty will decrease (2) Democracy has no significant and negative effect on poverty. This means that if democracy increases, poverty will decrease (3) Politics has a significant and negative effect on poverty, meaning that if politics increases, poverty will decrease (4) Economic growth has a significant and positive effect on poverty, meaning if economic growth increases then poverty will decline (3) Economic growth unable to moderate the relationship between corruption, democracy and politics towards poverty in 8 ASEAN countries. Economic growth as an interaction variable is a predictor variable (Predictor Moderate Variable), which means that economic growth is only an independent variable.

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FDI and Economic Growth in EU13 Countries: Cointegration and Causality Tests

Journal of Competitiveness ◽

10.7441/joc.2020.03.03 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 47-63

Author(s):

Vlatka Bilas ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

European Union ◽

Annual Data ◽

Foreign Direct Investments ◽

Causality Test ◽

Panel Ardl ◽

Long Run ◽

Causality Tests ◽

The Relationship

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.

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