scholarly journals Diagnostic evaluation and Bayesian Updating: Practical solutions to common problems

Evaluation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-515
Author(s):  
Barbara Befani
Keyword(s):  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Diagnostic Evaluation ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
The Third ◽  
Bayes Formula ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Common Problems ◽  
Influence Process ◽  
Empirical Material

This article discusses several practical issues arising with the application of diagnostic principles to theory-based evaluation (e.g. with Process Tracing and Bayesian Updating). It is structured around three iterative application steps, focusing mostly on the third. While covering different ways evaluators fall victims to confirmation bias and conservatism, the article includes suggestions on which theories can be tested, what kind of empirical material can act as evidence and how to estimate the Bayes formula values/update confidence, including when working with ranges and qualitative confidence descriptors. The article tackles evidence packages (one of the most problematical practical issues), proposing ways to (a) set boundaries of single observations that can be considered independent and handled numerically; (b) handle evidence packages when numerical probability estimates are not available. Some concepts are exemplified using a policy influence process where an institution’s strategy has been influenced by a knowledge product by another organisation.

The experience of non-traditional study of the poetics of literary works (on the example of the book “Fontanelle” by Meir Shalev)

2021 ◽  
pp. 58-75
Author(s):  
Vadim Markovich Rozin
Keyword(s):  
New World ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Literary Work ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Family ◽  
Gradual Development ◽  
History Of ◽  
Family And Marriage ◽  
Nontraditional Approach ◽  
Empirical Material

This article offers a nontraditional approach towards studying the poetics of literary work, which considers personality of the reader and analysis of the reality that he reconstructs and experiences. The empirical material is comprised on the authorial analysis of the poetics of Meir Shalev's novel “Fontanelle”. This literary work features the four major themes: love of the protagonist Michael, creation of the new world from its inception, the characteristic of life values of a person, and discussion of the peculiarities of reality that Meir Shalev builds as an artist. In the first theme, the author reveals several images of love, reflecting on the mystical love of the protagonist for the young woman Ana, love in the family and marriage, love for children. At the same time, the author discusses not only the way that Meir Shalev understands and describes love in “Fontanelle”, but also talks about the own interpretation of love. In the plotline of the second theme, the author also distinguishes two lines: the story the protagonist’s grandfather Apupa, who carries his beloved Amuma on his shoulders across the country, seeking a place where they could create a home and family; and the story of gradual development of a small settlement into a city, created by Apupa and Amuma on the mountain, and several Jewish families at the lower valley. Discussing in the third topic the anchors of human life, the author emphasizes such values as effort, love, family and family line, creativity, indicating that Michael is not alone, he is loved, he gets involved in family history, as well as the history of Israel and Jewish culture, drawing strength in the heroes of this story. The last part of the article gives characteristic to the reality of “Fontanelle” and explains why the author liked it.

scholarly journals PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN HUTANG PADA USAHA KECIL DAN MENENGAH (UKM) DI PULAU LOMBOK: SUATU PERSPEKTIF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siti Aisyah Hidayati ◽  
Embun Suryani ◽  
M Muhdin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Factor Group ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
The Third ◽  
Lombok Island

The purpose of this study is to find out what factors determine decision making of debt and what are the most dominant factors in  decision making of debt for SMEs on the island of Lombok.  This research is an explanatory research with quantitative approach. The population is all SMEs located in Lombok island. The sample is selected by Non probability sampling technique with a judgment sampling method where the SMEs that selected as samples are SMEs in handicraft industry of pottery and already exporting the products. Of the existing population, there are 25 (twenty five) SMEs that can be sampled. Respondents in this study are managers who also the owner of the SMEs. Data was collected using questionnaire. To achieve the research objectives, the data obtained will be processed according to needs using Factor Analysis.The results of this study indicate there are three groups of factors that determine  decision making of debt, namely the First Factor Group consists of: Variable Excessive Optimism, Variable Overconfidence, Variable Confirmation Bias and Variable Aversion to sure loss. This factor is named Factor Overconfidence. The Second Factor Group consisted of Representativeness Variables, Avaibility Variables and Anchoring and Adjustment Variables. This factor is named the Avaibility Factor. The third factor group consists of Affect Variables and Aversion Loss Variables. This factor is named the Factor of Loss Aversion. The most dominant factor in determining debt decision making for SMEs in Lombok Island is the Overconfidence factor group consisting of Variable Excessive Optimism, Variable Overconfidence, Variable Confirmation Bias and Variable Aversion to sure loss .

scholarly journals “I’ve had it!” Group therapy for interdisciplinary researchers

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Jurmu ◽  
Johanna Ylipulli ◽  
Anna Luusua
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Group Therapy ◽  
Best Practices ◽  
Human Computer Interaction ◽  
Interdisciplinary Research ◽  
Industrial Design ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Common ◽  
Common Problems

<div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>In this workshop, we reflect on and share the fun and frustrations of working in interdisciplinary research. We ask participants to openly reflect on their experiences of interdisciplinarity. What approaches have worked and what have failed? In addition to identifying phenomena, we aim to sketch out the next decade of interdisciplinary research in computing, especially in HCI. The third paradigm of Human-Computer Interaction focuses on the qualitative aspects of use experience and the situatedness of technologies. This new orientation has drawn in researchers from various other research and arts backgrounds and traditions, including the social sciences, architecture and industrial design among others. Therefore, we consider this third paradigm to be inherently interdisciplinary. Through workshop participants’ reflection of their own experiences, we strive to identify the common problems and pitfalls of interdisciplinary research, and to celebrate successes, as well as share best practices. </span></p></div></div></div>

scholarly journals PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN HUTANG PADA USAHA KECIL DAN MENENGAH (UKM) DI PULAU LOMBOK: SUATU PERSPEKTIF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siti Aisyah Hidayati ◽  
Embun Suryani ◽  
M Muhdin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Factor Group ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
The Third ◽  
Lombok Island

The purpose of this study is to find out what factors determine decision making of debt and what are the most dominant factors in  decision making of debt for SMEs on the island of Lombok.  This research is an explanatory research with quantitative approach. The population is all SMEs located in Lombok island. The sample is selected by Non probability sampling technique with a judgment sampling method where the SMEs that selected as samples are SMEs in handicraft industry of pottery and already exporting the products. Of the existing population, there are 25 (twenty five) SMEs that can be sampled. Respondents in this study are managers who also the owner of the SMEs. Data was collected using questionnaire. To achieve the research objectives, the data obtained will be processed according to needs using Factor Analysis.The results of this study indicate there are three groups of factors that determine  decision making of debt, namely the First Factor Group consists of: Variable Excessive Optimism, Variable Overconfidence, Variable Confirmation Bias and Variable Aversion to sure loss. This factor is named Factor Overconfidence. The Second Factor Group consisted of Representativeness Variables, Avaibility Variables and Anchoring and Adjustment Variables. This factor is named the Avaibility Factor. The third factor group consists of Affect Variables and Aversion Loss Variables. This factor is named the Factor of Loss Aversion. The most dominant factor in determining debt decision making for SMEs in Lombok Island is the Overconfidence factor group consisting of Variable Excessive Optimism, Variable Overconfidence, Variable Confirmation Bias and Variable Aversion to sure loss .Keyword:Behavioral finance, decision making of debt, SMEs

Let’s Find a Barn and Put On a Show

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 550-555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beverly A. Chiarulli
Keyword(s):  
Fourth Graders ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Public Programs ◽  
School Class ◽  
The Third ◽  
Common Problems ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Goals And Objectives

AbstractArchaeologists are regularly asked to present public programs. The audiences are varied, as are the settings. Often, the programs are one-time events, and archaeologists usually talk about current or favorite projects. However, public programs may run into unexpected problems because they take archaeologists into unfamiliar situations. In addition, not all programs, including some that seem successful, leave the audience with the message the archaeologist intended to convey; occasionally, the audience will even receive the opposite message. This article is designed to help anyone preparing public programs to avoid some common problems. The lessons fit into three groups. The first group consists of knowledge lessons: know your audience, know their interests, and know their community. The second group consists of logistical lessons: how many programs or classes should be involved? How long should each program last, and what facilities should be used? The third group consists of development lessons for both you and your audience, including building goals and objectives into the program and using appropriate assessment methods. It also includes creating networks that support your program. Can you develop the individual encounters into a coherent approach? Whether a program is designed for a single school class of 30 fourth graders or for a booth at a county fair visited by 4,000 fairgoers, each one should be designed to provide a coherent message to the audience.

Socialisation and decision-making in the Council of the European Union

2016 ◽  
pp. 122-140
Author(s):  
Kamil Ławniczak
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
European Union ◽  
Final Section ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
Constructivist Approach ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Third ◽  
Constructivist Perspective ◽  
Causal Framework ◽  
Oriented Approach

The complex system of decision-making in the Council of the European Union has many specific features which require explanation. This article presents a constructivist approach to this problem and focuses on the influence of socialisation. First, it explains why inquiry into the decision-making in the Council from the constructivist perspective is justified and then proposes the use of process-tracing, a method that allows to trace causal mechanisms linking the effects of socialisation and the characteristics of decision-making in the Council. Second, a typology of socialisation mechanisms and effects is presented. The third section is an attempt to use the inductive variety of process-tracing in order to explain certain qualities of decision-making in the Council. The final section outlines the theory-oriented approach to process-tracing, which could follow from the presented conceptualisation and explains the need to include the constitutive aspects of socialisation within the causal framework of process-tracing research.

The Newborn Child, ed. 3, by David Vulliamy, M.D., F.R.C.P., D.C.H. Baltimore: The Williams & Wilkins Company, 1972, 189 pp., $11.75

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1973 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 317-317
Author(s):  
Mary Ellen Avery
Keyword(s):  
The Third ◽  
Subject Headings ◽  
Newborn Child ◽  
Common Problems ◽  
Wilkins Company

The third edition of this well-known primer has been revised and updated to become a timely and useful guide. Among its attributes are its small size (it fits a lab coat pocket beautifully), frequent subject headings, clarity of style, and emphasis on common problems. The illustrations are relatively few in number but pertinent. The book is recommended for students, residents, and nurses who first become associated with a nursery service. It serves as a readable and useful introduction.

Process Tracing and Bayesian Updating for impact evaluation

Evaluation ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Befani ◽  
Gavin Stedman-Bryce
Keyword(s):  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Process Tracing

scholarly journals Perception, Logic and Plurality of Rational Representations of the World

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 37-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor F. Mikhailov
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Experience ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Core ◽  
Cognitive Operations ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Mathematical Problems ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Logical Rules ◽  
Empirical Material

The article covers such issues as the relevance of the theory of perception as a multi-level information processing, the methodological role of the concept of representation and the relation of neurodynamic structures to subjective experience. The author critically reviews the philosophical presumptions underlying the various concepts of “local rationality,” the core of which is constituted by the belief that large ethnic cultures generate or are based on their own rationality and their own logic. Three statements are successively considered: (a) thinking is based on the inherent rules of rationality, (b) logic is an extract of rationality, and (c) types of rationality are geographically consistent with large ethnocultural communities. Empirical arguments are presented that demonstrate equivocality (if not falsity) of the first two theses. In particular, firstly, it is shown that the genuine rationality of thinking lies not in following the rules that are immanent to it, but in the development of thinking and, more broadly, cognitive operations towards optimization of certain indicators of the cognitive or motor system that are important for survival and adaptation. In addition, this rationality is multivariate, and the choice between variants is often weakly determined or even random. Thus, the first statement turns out to be refuted. Secondly, by reference to the well-known experiments, it is shown that most people do not explicitly follow some declared logical rules in solving even logical or mathematical problems, and yet there is reason to consider their behavior rational. The third thesis, as shown with some limited empirical material, appears to be partially confirmed. Nevertheless, the demonstration of the doubtfulness of the first two theses makes the conclusion that different nations have different logics insufficiently substantiated.

scholarly journals The “living together” argument in the European Court of Human Rights case-law

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 9-34
Author(s):  
Tania Pagotto
Keyword(s):  
Case Law ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Legal Analysis ◽  
The Third ◽  
European Court ◽  
Living Together ◽  
Legal Justification ◽  
Proportionality Test ◽  
Full Face ◽  
Empirical Material

This article analyses the three cases where the argument of “living together” was engaged by the ECtHR and accepted as a legal justification for the prohibition of the full-face veils (burqa and niqab): SAS v. France (2014), Belcacemi and Oussar v. Belgium (2017), and Dakir v. Belgium (2017). It analyses the proposed concept of “living together” itself, explaining its content and its development in the French and Belgian contexts. The paper argues that there is a lack of a robust legal analysis sufficient to legitimize this new argument. Finally, it makes the case for more fact-oriented decisions and the need for the Court to engage in evaluating all the knowledge it obtains, including empirical material brought by the third parties’ interventions. This could be beneficial for two reasons: facilitating the application of the proportionality test and protecting the Court itself from dangerous challenges to its authority.

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