scholarly journals Polls and the Pandemic: Estimating the Electoral Effects of a SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak

2020 ◽  
pp. 147892992097918
Author(s):  
Indraneel Sircar
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Power ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
County Level ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and the associated Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have had far-reaching health, economic, social and political impacts. The latter is the focus of this research note, which proposes using a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the electoral impact of reported SARS-CoV-2 infection rates. The approach is illustrated using data from the 2020 Croatian parliamentary election. The outcomes of interest are the vote shares for the dominant Croatian Democratic Union party, as well as the turnout. The analysis concludes that there is no evidence that reported county-level infection rates affected Croatian Democratic Union support or turnout. However, results using this approach may be affected by the statistical power of the analysis, issues related to causal identification and reliability of infection rate measures. Nonetheless, the difference-in-differences approach can potentially be applied in contexts around the world to estimate the electoral impact of reported SARS-CoV-2 infection rates.

scholarly journals Digital Tracing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: User Appraisal, Emotion, and Continuance Intention

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 608
Author(s):  
Ayoung Suh ◽  
Mengjun Li
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Personal Privacy ◽  
Continuance Intention ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreak ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Technological Affordances ◽  
Method Approach

This study explores how people appraise the use of contact tracing apps during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in South Korea. Despite increasing attention paid to digital tracing for health disasters, few studies have empirically examined user appraisal, emotion, and their continuance intention to use contact tracing apps for disaster management during an infectious disease outbreak. A mixed-method approach combining qualitative and quantitative inquiries was employed. In the qualitative study, by conducting interviews with 25 people who have used mobile apps for contact tracing, the way users appraise contact tracing apps for COVID-19 was explored. In the quantitative study, using data collected from 506 users of the apps, the interplay among cognitive appraisal (threats and opportunities) and its association with user emotion, and continuance intention was examined. The findings indicate that once users experience loss emotions, such as anger, frustration, and disgust, they are not willing to continue using the apps. App designers should consider providing technological affordances that enable users to have a sense of control over the technology so that they do not experience loss emotions. Public policymakers should also consider developing measures that can balance public health and personal privacy.

scholarly journals Investigation of the genetic variation in ACE2 on the structural recognition by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingyi Guo ◽  
Zhishan Chen ◽  
Yumin Xia ◽  
Weiqiang Lin ◽  
Hongzhi Li
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
S Protein ◽  
Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 ◽  
Missense Variants ◽  
Catalytic Metal ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), through its surface spike glycoprotein (S-protein) recognition on the receptor Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in humans. However, it remains unclear how genetic variations in ACE2 may affect its function and structure, and consequently alter the recognition by SARS-CoV-2. Methods: We have systemically characterized missense variants in the gene ACE2 using data from the Genome Aggregation Database (gnomAD; N = 141,456). To investigate the putative deleterious role of missense variants, six existing functional prediction tools were applied to evaluate their impact. We further analyzed the structural flexibility of ACE2 and its protein-protein interface with the S-protein of SARS-CoV-2 using our developed Legion Interfaces Analysis (LiAn) program.Results: Here, we characterized a total of 12 ACE2 putative deleterious missense variants. Of those 12 variants, we further showed that p.His378Arg could directly weaken the binding of catalytic metal atom to decrease ACE2 activity and p.Ser19Pro could distort the most important helix to the S-protein. Another seven missense variants may affect secondary structures (i.e. p.Gly211Arg; p.Asp206Gly; p.Arg219Cys; p.Arg219His, p.Lys341Arg, p.Ile468Val, and p.Ser547Cys), whereas p.Ile468Val with AF = 0.01 is only present in Asian.Conclusions: We provide strong evidence of putative deleterious missense variants in ACE2 that are present in specific populations, which could disrupt the function and structure of ACE2. These findings provide novel insight into the genetic variation in ACE2 which may affect the SARS-CoV-2 recognition and infection, and COVID-19 susceptibility and treatment.

scholarly journals Forecasting COVID-19 cases in Algeria using logistic growth and polynomial regression models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed LOUNIS ◽  
Babu Malavika
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Logistic Growth Model ◽  
Polynomial Regression Models ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Polynomial Regression Model

Abstract The novel Coronavirus respiratory disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still expanding through the world since it started in Wuhan (China) on December 2019 reporting a number of more than 84.4 millions cases and 1.8 millions deaths on January 3rd 2021.In this work and to forecast the COVID-19 cases in Algeria, we used two models: the logistic growth model and the polynomial regression model using data of COVID-19 cases reported by the Algerian ministry of health from February 25th to December 2nd, 2020. Results showed that the polynomial regression model fitted better the data of COVID-19 in Algeria the Logistic model. The first model estimated the number of cases on January, 19th 2021 at 387673 cases. This model could help the Algerian authorities in the fighting against this disease.

scholarly journals Situation analysis of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-14
Author(s):  
Kiran Paudel ◽  
Prashamsa Bhandari ◽  
Yadav Prasad Joshi
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
The Status ◽  
Exponential Trend ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is currently a major threat to global health in an unprecedented manner. The global pandemic of COVID-19 has affected 215 countries and territories including Nepal. Until 1st June 2020, altogether 1,811 COVID-19 positive cases were diagnosed using RT-PCR. This study aimed to analyze the status of COVID-19 cases in Nepal and South Asian countries. A retrospective study from 23rd January to 1st June 2020 was conducted using data of the Ministry of Home Affairs, Nepal and Worldometer homepages. The primary case records during the pre and post lockdown periods were examined. Spatial distribution was observed. An exponential trend line was plotted and COVID-19 situation in South Asian countries was assessed. Of 1,811 COVID-19 cases, the highest number (38.3%) was reported in Province 2. Out of 77 districts, 59 were affected. In Fifty-eight districts, primary cases appeared during the lockdown period. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases showed the exponential pattern of distribution in Nepal. In South Asian countries, India had the highest number of cases and case fatality rate (CFR). There were no cases of CFR in Bhutan. The Novel Coronavirus emergence in Nepal has become a serious challenge to the various sectors including public health. The emergence of primary cases even in the lockdown period needs a detailed study in the future.

scholarly journals Social Insurance, Welfare Codes, and the Spread of Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-52
Author(s):  
Tadashi Adino ◽  
Moein Mirani Ahangar Kolaei ◽  
Eser Demir ◽  
Tolga Constantinou ◽  
Mostafa Toranji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Insurance ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Disadvantaged Population ◽  
Criteria Pollutants ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Low Educated

This paper explores disparities in the effect of pollution on confirmed cases of Covid-19 based on counties’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Using data on all US counties on a daily basis over the year 2020 and applying a rich panel data fixed effect model, we document that: 1) there are discernible social and demographic disparities in the spread of Covid-19. Blacks, low educated, and poorer people are at higher risks of being infected by the new disease. 2) The criteria pollutants including Ozone, CO, PM10, and PM2.5 have the potential to accelerate the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. 3) The disadvantaged population is more vulnerable to the effects of pollution on the spread of coronavirus. Specifically, the effects of pollution on confirmed cases become larger for blacks, low educated, and counties with lower average wages in 2019.

scholarly journals Increases in Use of Psychiatric Sick Leave During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Healthcare Workers in a Municipality of Argentina. Observed Versus Expected Cases in 2020 compared to Historical data.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustina M Marconi ◽  
Ursula S Myers ◽  
Alfredo M Retamar ◽  
Ivanna Jazmin Freddi ◽  
Rafael Zamora
Keyword(s):  
Sick Leave ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Psychological Symptoms ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Municipal Level ◽  
Wide Pressure

Abstract Background: The severe respiratory syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS CoV 2) has caused world-wide pressure on the healthcare workers attempting to treat millions of individuals ill with COVID-19, in addition to their regular duties. Aims: examine the use of psychiatric leave by Argentinian healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic; explore differences by gender. Methods: analysis of “excess of psychiatric sick leave” in health workers at a municipal level for Buenos Aires, January- October 2020. We used historical cases of psychiatric sick leave (2015-2019) and those requested in 2020. The differences between gender were determined using difference in proportions among groups. Results: The excess of psychiatric sick leave in 2020 compared to historical data was 161.90%. The difference in proportion per sex showed a significant 59.34% towards female. Conclusions: healthcare workers in the Argentinian municipality of Vicente Lopez used significantly higher number of psychiatric sick leaves during pandemic. The higher rates of psychiatric sick leave used by female replicate findings of higher rates of psychological symptoms in female healthcare workers.

The Effects of Germany’s Statutory Minimum Wage on Employment and Welfare Dependency

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 330-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Schmitz
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Welfare Recipients ◽  
County Level ◽  
Welfare Dependency ◽  
Welfare Receipt ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Regular Employment ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Marginal Employment ◽  
The Difference

AbstractIn January 2015, Germany introduced a federal, statutory minimum wage of 8.50 € per hour. This study evaluates the effects of this policy on regular and marginal employment and on welfare dependency. Based on the county-level administrative data, this study uses the difference-in-differences technique, exploiting regional variation in the bite of the minimum wage, i.e., the county-specific share of employees paid less than 8.50 € before the introduction of the minimum wage. The minimum wage had a considerable negative effect on marginal employment. There is also some indication that regular employment was slightly reduced. Concerning welfare dependency, the minimum wage reduced the number of working welfare recipients, with some indication that about one half of them left welfare receipt due to the minimum wage.

Fatherhood, marriage and male labor market outcomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 125-143
Author(s):  
Elena Kotyrlo ◽  
◽  
Ilya Bulgakov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Family Life ◽  
Labor Market Outcomes ◽  
Work Life ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Individual Effects ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Male Labour

We explore the relationship between fatherhood and marriage and male labour outcomes. We challenge the direction of causality. The difference in differences method for three periods (before, per year, and after an event in family life) allows establishing whether changes in family life follow changes in work life or vice versa. The results are obtained using data from RLMS‐HSE for individuals and households in the period 2014–2017. We find limited confirmation of individual effects. They can be attributed to both direct and inverse relationships between male labour outcome and changes in family life.

scholarly journals Inferring True COVID19 Infection Rates From Deaths

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian McCulloh ◽  
Kevin Kiernan ◽  
Trevor Kent
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Time To Death ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Co Morbidity ◽  
The World ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, commonly known as COVID19 has become a global pandemic in early 2020. The world has mounted a global social distancing intervention on a scale thought unimaginable prior to this outbreak; however, the economic impact and sustainability limits of this policy create significant challenges for government leaders around the world. Understanding the future spread and growth of COVID19 is further complicated by data quality issues due to high numbers of asymptomatic patients who may transmit the disease yet show no symptoms; lack of testing resources; failure of recovered patients to be counted; delays in reporting hospitalizations and deaths; and the co-morbidity of other life-threatening illnesses. We propose a Monte Carlo method for inferring true case counts from observed deaths using clinical estimates of Infection Fatality Ratios and Time to Death. Findings indicate that current COVID19 confirmed positive counts represent a small fraction of actual cases, and that even relatively effective surveillance regimes fail to identify all infectious individuals. We further demonstrate that the miscount also distorts officials' ability to discern the peak of an epidemic, confounding efforts to assess the efficacy of various interventions.

scholarly journals Does the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccine provide protection from COVID-19?

2020 ◽  
Vol 72 ◽  
pp. 17-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumya Roy
Keyword(s):  
Interleukin 1 ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Bacillus Calmette Guerin ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Prevention And Cure ◽  
Heterologous Protection ◽  
Necrosis Factor ◽  
Pro Inflammatory Cytokines

Objective: The novel coronavirus pandemic is ravaging throughout the world. It has infected more than 1.2 million people and killed more than 64,000. Frantic research is underway to find prevention and cure. Of late, Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) has been speculated as a possible protection from COVID-19. We sought to investigate the evidence behind the claim. Material and Methods: Data were collected regarding the total number of COVID-19 cases per million and total number of COVID-19 deaths per million in various countries. The BCG vaccination policies of these countries were also obtained. Results: It was seen that the countries with no universal BCG policy had a mean 1272.9 (median 795) cases per million and 80.7 deaths (median 18) per million population. On the contrary, the countries with a universal BCG vaccination policy had a mean 131.2 (median 40) cases per million and 4 deaths (median 1) per population. The difference is highly significant (P < 0.001). Conclusion: The data strongly support the hypothesis that BCG may offer protection from COVID-19. Heterologous protection offered by BCG through production of trained immunity, epigenetic reprogramming of monocytes, non-specific activation of NK cells, and increase of pro-inflammatory cytokines (particularly, tumor necrosis factor [TNF]-alpha and interleukin 1 beta) production may be the mechanism behind its cross- protection against the novel coronavirus.

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