Evolving extreme events caused by climate change: A tail based Bayesian approach for extreme event risk analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2199103
Author(s):  
Mohammad Arif ◽  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Salim Ahmed ◽  
Syed Imtiaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Tail Probability ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
The Impact

Natural hazards are of significant concern for engineering development in the offshore environment. Climate change phenomena are making these concerns even greater. The frequency and extent of natural hazards are undesirably evolving over time; so risk estimation for such events require special consideration. In most cases the existing extreme models (based on the extreme value theory) are unable to capture the changing frequency and extremeness of natural hazards. To capture the evolving frequency and extremeness of natural hazards and their effects on offshore process operations, an advanced probabilistic approach is proposed in this paper. The approach considers a heavy right tail probability model. The model parameter is estimated through the Bayesian inference. Hill and the SmooHill estimators are used to evaluate the lowest and highest exponent of the probability model. The application of the approach is demonstrated through extreme iceberg risk analysis for the Jeanne d’Arc basin. This study shows climate change or global warming is causing to appear a significant number of icebergs every year in the study area. Offshore structures are often designed to withstand the impact of 1 MT icebergs weight; however, the study observes large icebergs (10 MT weight) are sighted in recent years (14% of the total number of cited icebergs for the period of 2002–2017). As a result, the design philosophy needs to be revised. The proposed risk-based approach provides a robust design criterion for offshore structures.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on offshore structures design: A practical case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 101992
Author(s):  
I.A. Mosquera-Mosquera ◽  
Marina L. Simão ◽  
Paulo M. Videiro ◽  
Luis V.S. Sagrilo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Practical Case ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of Climate Change on the Long-Term Response of Offshore Structures: A Study Case

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irvin Alberto Mosquera ◽  
Luis Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽  
Paulo Maurício Videiro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Wave Parameter ◽  
Greenhouse Emissions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Term Response

Abstract This paper discusses the influence of the climate change in the long-term response of offshore structures. The case studied is a linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system under environmental load wave characterized by the JONSWAP spectrum. The wave parameter data used in the analyses were obtained from running the wind wave WaveWatch III with wind field input data derived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs): HadGEM2-ES and MRI-CGCM3 considering historical and future greenhouse emissions scenarios. The study was carried out for two locations: one in the North Atlantic and the other in Brazilian South East Coast. Environmental contours have been used to estimate the extreme long-term response. The results suggest that climate change would affect the structure response and its impact is highly depend on the structure location, the global climate model and the greenhouse emissions scenario selected.

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FATIGUE LIFE OF OFFSHORE STRUCTURES

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-35
Author(s):  
Irvin Alberto Mosquera ◽  
Luis V. S. Sagrilo ◽  
Paulo M. Videiro ◽  
Fernando Sousa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fatigue Life ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Design life of offshore structures is in general in the 20-30 years range, with some cases going up to 50 years. Fatigue is one of the major design criteria for such structures. Climate change may affect the fatigue life of offshore structures, it would be necessary to update the design procedures to take into account climate change effects on structural performance. This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change in the long-term fatigue life of offshore structures due to wave loading. For this purpose, available environmental conditions for two locations (South East Brazilian Coast and North Atlantic Ocean) generated by the HadGEM-2S global climate model, considering RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway - RCP) future scenarios and the historical (past) scenarios are considered. The assessment in both locations is performed for two structural models: an idealized stress spectrum for a generic fatigue hot-spot and a Steel Lazy Wave Riser (SLWR) connected to a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO). Fatigue life is estimated using the S-N curve approach. Results show that the impact on the fatigue life depends on the structure dynamic characteristics, on the geographic location and mainly on the greenhouse emission scenario. In general, for the Brazilian location, when compared to the historical scenario, most of the future scenarios lead to slightly higher fatigue damages (lower fatigue lives). On the other hand, for the North Atlantic location, there is not a clear trend for future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Climate change and Forest disturbances in Europe: an economic analysis of the losses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaume Sempere ◽  
Jose Maria Da-Rocha ◽  
Javier García-Cutrín ◽  
María-Luisa Chas-Amil ◽  
Eduardo Sánchez-Llamas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Forest Disturbance ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Climate warming is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the mid to long term (Lindner et al., 2010; Bolte et al., 200); Morin et al., 2018; Dale et al. (2000), Seidl et al., 2011)). Here, we combine a (dynamic general equilibrium) model of forest management with inter-country input-output tables (Remond-Tiedrez et al., 2019)) to estimate the economic effect on the EU-28 and USA economies of changes in the output of the forestry and logging sectors due to extreme forest disturbance events. Given our model results, we estimate that the impact on the EU-28 economy will be equivalent to the value of wood damaged multiplied 3.32 fold [3.00-3.44]. We find that the economic cost of a global pan-European extreme event (a pulse of 450 M m3) could be 120.4 billion Euros in the EU-28 and and 1.7 billion in the USA (i.e. 0.926 and 0.015% of their respective GDPs). Finally, we explore how to design incentives to increase the economic resilience of the response of forestry and logging companies to expected future climate change. Using a heterogeneous companies model, we show that payments to landowners to conserve forest increase economic resilience.

scholarly journals Landslides vs Archaeology

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-205
Author(s):  
Anton Larsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Local Case ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Impacted Site ◽  
Geological Phenomenon

Landslides are one of the few types of natural hazards that have affected Sweden regularly in the recent past. We can expect that this geological phenomenon will only increase in frequency in the near future given the ongoing processes of anthropogenic climate change, and this likelihood motivates some historical retrospection. This paper explores how landslides have impacted archaeological sites in Västra Götaland, the country’s most landslide-prone region, from the mid-twentieth century onwards, and how, in turn, archaeologists have had to respond to these disasters. The 1957 Göta, 1973 Fröland, 1977 Tuve and 2006 Småröd landslides are highlighted in particular, as is the landslide-impacted site Hjälpesten. Connections are made to other different but related archaeologies of hazard and disaster, providing insights into the impact that climate change has had and will have on the discipline. While the paper showcases a set of local case studies, it is further argued that its findings have relevance for other areas as well, calling for the attention of the cultural heritage sector.

Anthropogenic causes of landslides and their implications for monitoring

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaushik Ramanathan ◽  
Nirmala Vasudevan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
The Impact

<p>Are we justified in referring to all landslides as natural hazards? With the effects of climate change, landslide incidences are increasing all over the world, and many of them accompany floods and occur due to extreme weather events. It has been unequivocally established that humans are responsible for global climate change. Further, landslides also occur in deforested areas. Even if one were to discount the effects of deforestation on climate change and the subsequent occurrence of landslides, one cannot ignore the fact that deforestation leads to slope instabilities in multiple ways. It decreases the effective retaining strength of the slope materials and also exposes more slope material to weathering and consequent leaching. Thus, deforestation and climate change, caused directly or indirectly by human beings, have a significant bearing on landslide occurrence. Furthermore, several catastrophic landslides in recent times have occurred due to indiscriminate human activity, such as constructing dams and other structures on fragile slopes, blasting slopes for road construction without providing adequate toe support, excessive mining, constructing faulty retaining structures on unstable slope material, etc. Over the years, such human activity has resulted in landslides of all types and at various scales. Whether a landslide is natural, caused due to anthropogenic factors, or a combination of the two, the investigation approach and monitored parameters remain the same; we still need to identify the various causative factors and quantify their rates of change over time in the run up to the landslide event. However, we need a paradigm shift in our perspective and treatment of landslides. We need to accept that human activity is, or can be, responsible for landslide occurrence. With this change in perspective, we would monitor slopes with an increased awareness that human actions could negatively impact slope stability. This, in turn, would entail monitoring at every stage to ensure that no human activity adversely impacts the natural balance, thus paving the way for truly sustainable development. We would be doing great disservice to the investigation and monitoring of landslides by such preconceived notions as all landslides are natural hazards. It is high time that we accept our part in compounding the problem of landslide occurrences and come up with solutions to monitor the impact of human activity on the environment to prevent landslides.</p>

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tanker Design

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen ◽  
Torfinn Ho̸rte ◽  
Rolf Skjong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Structure Design ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Global warming and extreme weather events reported in the last years have attracted a lot of attention in academia, industry and media. The ongoing debate around the observed climate change has focused on three important questions: will occurrence of extreme weather events increase in the future, which geographical locations will be most affected, and to what degree will climate change have impact on future ship traffic and design of ships and offshore structures? The present study shortly reviews the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, AR4, [1] and other relevant publications regarding projections of meteorological and oceanographic conditions in the 21st century and beyond with design needs in focus. Emphasis is on wave climate and its potential implications on safe design and operations of ship structures. A risk based approach for marine structure design accounting for climate change is proposed. The impact of expected wave climate change on ship design is demonstrated for five oil tankers, ranging from Product tanker to VLCC. Consequences of climate change for the hull girder failure probability and hence the steel weight of the deck in the midship region is shown. Recommendations for future research activities allowing adaptation to climate change are given.

scholarly journals Climate change and Forest disturbances in Europe: an economic analysis of the losses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose-Maria Da-Rocha ◽  
Javier Garcia-Cutrin ◽  
Jaume Sempere ◽  
Maria-Jose Gutierrez ◽  
Maria-Luisa Chas-Amil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Forest Disturbance ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Climate warming is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the mid to long term. Here, we combine a model of forest management with inter-country input-output tables to estimate the economic effect on the EU-28 and USA economies of changes in the output of the forestry and logging sectors due to extreme forest disturbance events. Given our model results, we estimate that the impact on the EU-28 economy will be equivalent to the value of wood damaged multiplied 3.32 fold [3.00-3.44]. We find that the economic cost of a global pan-European extreme event (a pulse of 450 M m3) could be 120.4 billion Euros in the EU-28 and and 1.7 billion in the USA (i.e. 0.926 and 0.015% of their respective GDPs). Finally, we explore how to design incentives to increase the economic resilience of the response of forestry and logging companies to expected future climate change. Using a heterogeneous companies model, we show that payments to landowners to conserve forest increase economic resilience.

Infrastructure opportunities for the resilience of tomorrow’s cities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Pregnolato
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Urban Policy ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
World Population ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

<p>The world evolves. Cities have become the most common human settlement (>50% world population is urban). They act as major centres of economic activity and innovation, but also as hubs of crucial challenges. Cities are increasingly complex systems which have to address the enhanced demand, as well as sustainability criteria (e.g. meeting the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement target). Cities are also increasingly suffering from the impact of extreme weather, which are expected to threat US$4 trillion of assets by 2030 [1].</p><p>Science evolves too. New technology (e.g. Internet of Things) and concepts (e.g. smart cities) are emerging to manage risks and develop strategies for climate mitigation and adaptation. Infrastructure plays a core role in developing urban resilience, since they underpin all the key activities and constitute the backbone of a city. When infrastructure is robust and able to adapt, the whole city becomes less vulnerable to natural disasters.</p><p>Yet urban research does not fully fulfil the need of decision-makers: existing studies are mostly silo-based (e.g. based on single disciplines), or provide little scope for a business case, or do not offer platforms of practical implementation. Also, the uptake of developed technology (which requires specific expertise) is sometimes difficulty and seen as a further barrier.</p><p>This award lecture will review the major challenges that cities are facing today, and illustrate available tools to assess impact to infrastructure, alongside adaptation and technology options. Various international case studies will be presented regarding flooding and road networks [2, 3, 4, 5].</p><p>In the future, research and practice needs to interlink to innovate urban policy for mitigating urban climate change and adapting. Cities have never had so many and powerful tools available to tackle their challenges: while there is an immense potential, its realisation is still to unfold. The next decades are critical for developing schemes that address climate and sustainability goals, which could be solely successful with the application of latest science to practical contingencies.</p><p><strong>Reference</strong></p><p>[1] X Bai, RJ Dawson, D Ürge-Vorsatz, GC Delgado, AS Barau, S Dhakal, et al. (2018). Six research priorities for cities and climate change. Nature 555 (7694), 23-25. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-02409-z</p><p>[2] M Pregnolato, A Ford, V Glenis, S Wilkinson, R Dawson (2017). Impact of climate change on disruption to urban transport networks from pluvial flooding. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 23 (4), 04017015. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000372</p><p>[3] C Arrighi, M Pregnolato, RJ Dawson, F Castelli (2019). Preparedness against mobility disruption by floods. Science of the Total Environment 654, 1010-1022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.191</p><p>[4] C Arrighi, M Pregnolato, F Castelli (2020). Indirect flood impacts and cascade risk across interdependent linear infrastructures. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-371</p><p>[5] M Pregnolato, AO Winter, D Mascarenas, AD Sen, P Bates, MR Motley (2020). Assessing flooding impact to riverine bridges: an integrated analysis. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-375</p>

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