scholarly journals Landslides vs Archaeology

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-205
Author(s):  
Anton Larsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Local Case ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Impacted Site ◽  
Geological Phenomenon

Landslides are one of the few types of natural hazards that have affected Sweden regularly in the recent past. We can expect that this geological phenomenon will only increase in frequency in the near future given the ongoing processes of anthropogenic climate change, and this likelihood motivates some historical retrospection. This paper explores how landslides have impacted archaeological sites in Västra Götaland, the country’s most landslide-prone region, from the mid-twentieth century onwards, and how, in turn, archaeologists have had to respond to these disasters. The 1957 Göta, 1973 Fröland, 1977 Tuve and 2006 Småröd landslides are highlighted in particular, as is the landslide-impacted site Hjälpesten. Connections are made to other different but related archaeologies of hazard and disaster, providing insights into the impact that climate change has had and will have on the discipline. While the paper showcases a set of local case studies, it is further argued that its findings have relevance for other areas as well, calling for the attention of the cultural heritage sector.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Fadia Maghsood ◽  
Hamidreza Moradi ◽  
Ali Reza Massah Bavani ◽  
Mostafa Panahi ◽  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Northern Iran ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Flood Source

This study assessed the impact of climate change on flood frequency and flood source area at basin scale considering Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 General Circulation Models (CMIP5 GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Talar River Basin in northern Iran. Four empirical approaches including the Sangal, Fill–Steiner, Fuller, and Slope-based methods were used to estimate the Instantaneous Peak Flow (IPF) on a daily basis. The calibrated SWAT model was run under the two RCP scenarios using a combination of twenty GCMs from CMIP5 for the near future (2020–40). To assess the impact of climate change on flood frequency pattern and to quantify the contribution of each subbasin on the total discharge from the Talar River Basin, Flood Frequency Index (FFI) and Subbasin Flood Source Area Index (SFSAI) were used. Results revealed that the projected climate change will likely lead to an average discharge decrease in January, February, and March for both RCPs and an increase in September and October for RCP 8.5. The maximum and minimum temperature will likely increase for all months in the near future. The annual precipitation could increase by more than 20% in the near future. This is likely to lead to an increase of IPF. The results can help managers and policy makers to better define mitigation and adaptation strategies for basins in similar climates.

scholarly journals The effect of climate change and emission scenarios on ozone concentrations over Belgium: a high-resolution model study for policy support

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 5893-5904 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Lauwaet ◽  
P. Viaene ◽  
E. Brisson ◽  
N.P.M. van Lipzig ◽  
T. van Noije ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. Belgium is one of the areas within Europe experiencing the highest levels of air pollution. A high-resolution (3 km) modelling experiment is employed to provide guidance to policymakers about expected air quality changes in the near future (2026–2035). The regional air quality model AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), driven by output from a regional climate model, is used to simulate several 10-year time slices to investigate the impact of climatic changes and different emission scenarios on near-surface O3 concentrations, one of the key indices for air quality. Evaluation of the model against measurements from 34 observation stations shows that the AURORA model is capable of reproducing 10-year mean concentrations, daily cycles and spatial patterns. The results for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 emission scenario indicate that the mean surface O3 concentrations are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to less O3 titration by reduced NOx emissions. Applying an alternative emission scenario for Europe is found to have only a minor impact on the overall concentrations, which are dominated by the background changes. Climate change alone has a much smaller effect on the near-surface O3 concentrations over Belgium than the projected emission changes. The very high horizontal resolution that is used in this study results in much improved spatial correlations and simulated peak concentrations compared to a standard 25 km simulation. An analysis of the number of peak episodes during summer revealed that the emission reductions in RCP4.5 result in a 25% decrease of these peak episodes.

Biological evidence of past environments and climatic changes

1994 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon R. Pilcher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pollen Analysis ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Turn Of The Century ◽  
Peat Bogs ◽  
Glacial Period ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Biological Evidence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

This paper will examine some of the types of biological evidence that allow us an insight into past environments and will consider some of the concepts that affect and limit our interpretations of past environments, and through them climatic changes.Scandinavia was the birthplace of palaeoenvironmental studies; basic to these being the concepts of speciation formulated in Uppsala by Linnaeus nearly 250 years ago. Sernander proposed his bog regeneration theories in 1910 and von Post gave his first two lectures on pollen analysis in 1916. Iversen demonstrated how the impact of human activities could be disentangled from climate change and later discussed the effects of lags in the vegetation at the start of the post glacial. These laid the framework for much that I will describe.At the turn of the century the two botanists Blytt and Sernander proposed a sub-division of the recent past (the post glacial period or Holocene as we now call it) on the basis of biological evidence preserved in bogs. They described wood layers in peat bogs and introduced the terms Boreal and Sub-Boreal for the time spanned by the wood layers, and the Atlantic and Sub-Atlantic for what they interpreted as the intervening wetter periods. These wood layers are as obvious now as they were in 1900 and the terms Boreal and Atlantic have gone in and out of fashion over the intervening years.

Anthropogenic causes of landslides and their implications for monitoring

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaushik Ramanathan ◽  
Nirmala Vasudevan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
The Impact

<p>Are we justified in referring to all landslides as natural hazards? With the effects of climate change, landslide incidences are increasing all over the world, and many of them accompany floods and occur due to extreme weather events. It has been unequivocally established that humans are responsible for global climate change. Further, landslides also occur in deforested areas. Even if one were to discount the effects of deforestation on climate change and the subsequent occurrence of landslides, one cannot ignore the fact that deforestation leads to slope instabilities in multiple ways. It decreases the effective retaining strength of the slope materials and also exposes more slope material to weathering and consequent leaching. Thus, deforestation and climate change, caused directly or indirectly by human beings, have a significant bearing on landslide occurrence. Furthermore, several catastrophic landslides in recent times have occurred due to indiscriminate human activity, such as constructing dams and other structures on fragile slopes, blasting slopes for road construction without providing adequate toe support, excessive mining, constructing faulty retaining structures on unstable slope material, etc. Over the years, such human activity has resulted in landslides of all types and at various scales. Whether a landslide is natural, caused due to anthropogenic factors, or a combination of the two, the investigation approach and monitored parameters remain the same; we still need to identify the various causative factors and quantify their rates of change over time in the run up to the landslide event. However, we need a paradigm shift in our perspective and treatment of landslides. We need to accept that human activity is, or can be, responsible for landslide occurrence. With this change in perspective, we would monitor slopes with an increased awareness that human actions could negatively impact slope stability. This, in turn, would entail monitoring at every stage to ensure that no human activity adversely impacts the natural balance, thus paving the way for truly sustainable development. We would be doing great disservice to the investigation and monitoring of landslides by such preconceived notions as all landslides are natural hazards. It is high time that we accept our part in compounding the problem of landslide occurrences and come up with solutions to monitor the impact of human activity on the environment to prevent landslides.</p>

The Resurgence of Tuberculosis in the United States: Societal Origins and Societal Responses

1993 ◽  
Vol 21 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 303-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor W. Sidel ◽  
Ernest Drucker ◽  
Steven C. Martin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
New York City ◽  
Health Services ◽  
York City ◽  
The United States ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Planning of effective responses to the recent resurgence of tuberculosis in the United States, and particularly in New York City, requires review of our knowledge of (1) the factors that led to the decline of tuberculosis in the U.S. and other countries during the nineteenth and the first three-quarters of the twentieth century, and (2) the recent changes in these same factors and the rise of new factors that have contributed to its resurgence. Because the analysis of the impact of all of these factors in both the remote and the recent past is controversial, it is important to use a well-defined framework to organize the analysis. The framework we will use is shown in Table 1. To the classic epidemiologic triad of Agent, Host and Environment it adds the category of Health Services. In this paper we redefine both the classic and new categories using current disciplines and concepts applicable to tuberculosis.

Evolving extreme events caused by climate change: A tail based Bayesian approach for extreme event risk analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2199103
Author(s):  
Mohammad Arif ◽  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Salim Ahmed ◽  
Syed Imtiaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Tail Probability ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
The Impact

Natural hazards are of significant concern for engineering development in the offshore environment. Climate change phenomena are making these concerns even greater. The frequency and extent of natural hazards are undesirably evolving over time; so risk estimation for such events require special consideration. In most cases the existing extreme models (based on the extreme value theory) are unable to capture the changing frequency and extremeness of natural hazards. To capture the evolving frequency and extremeness of natural hazards and their effects on offshore process operations, an advanced probabilistic approach is proposed in this paper. The approach considers a heavy right tail probability model. The model parameter is estimated through the Bayesian inference. Hill and the SmooHill estimators are used to evaluate the lowest and highest exponent of the probability model. The application of the approach is demonstrated through extreme iceberg risk analysis for the Jeanne d’Arc basin. This study shows climate change or global warming is causing to appear a significant number of icebergs every year in the study area. Offshore structures are often designed to withstand the impact of 1 MT icebergs weight; however, the study observes large icebergs (10 MT weight) are sighted in recent years (14% of the total number of cited icebergs for the period of 2002–2017). As a result, the design philosophy needs to be revised. The proposed risk-based approach provides a robust design criterion for offshore structures.

scholarly journals Historical precipitation patterns in the South-Southeast region of Mexico and future projections

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez ◽  
Ojilve Ramón Medrano Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The South ◽  
Southeast Region ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

This study analyzed climate change scenarios and their potential impact on water availability for the South-Southeast region (SSR) of Mexico. Precipitation patterns were examined using the Standardized Precipitation Index for three emissions scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, during the periods of 1960-2016, 2015-2039 (near future), and 2075-2099 (far future). Historical changes in precipitation in the SSR indicated the presence of dry and wet events driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which are the regional climate modulators. However, the impact of these phases has not been quantified for the future. The results of our climate change projections show that the Grijalva and Usumacinta rivers and surrounding regions (Chiapas and Tabasco) will have an increase in the percentage of dry and wet events in the near future (2015-2039), while there is a medium to low probability of this occurrence in rest of the SSR. By 2075-2099, Grijalva and Usumacinta will continue to have a high probability of dry events due to climate change, and the Yucatan will also exhibit this behavior. RCP 4.5 was projected to be the wettest scenario for the study area, while RCP 8.5 projected an increase in dry events in the area during both periods (2015-2039 and 2075-2099). RCP 6.0 projected a drier 2015-2039 and wetter 2075-2099.

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