scholarly journals Reassessing Downs: Testing the Influence of Voters’ Characteristics in a Chilean Presidential Election

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-103
Author(s):  
Andrés Santana ◽  
José Ramón Montero ◽  
José Rama
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Voter Model ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Santiago De Chile ◽  
Consumption Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Formal Test

This article puts Down’s instrumental voter model (IVM) to a formal test using data of the 2017 Chilean national elections. It aims at two novel exercises in the research in the calculus of voting. Using a brand-new questionnaire with indicators on instrumental and consumption motivations for voting, we reassess the voting equation in Santiago de Chile. Furthermore, we analyse whether instrumental and consumption motivations have distinctive effects for individuals with different socio-demographic characteristics. Our results show that they do: women, younger, lower educated, and unmarried citizens are more responsive to both instrumental and consumption motivations. Moreover, the factors of the IVM travel better to Santiago de Chile than those of the consumption model.

Disengaging elections? Political interest, number of elections, and turnout in elections to the European Parliament

2021 ◽  
pp. 146511652199845
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Nonnemacher
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
National Study ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
European Election ◽  
Using Data ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Cross National Study

Since direct elections to the European Parliament began in 1979, variations in voting behavior in European Parliament elections from national elections have raised interesting questions about political behavior. I add to a growing literature that explores turnout in European Parliament elections by focusing on the count of national elections between European Parliament elections. Through a cross-national study of elections, I find that turnout decreases in the European Parliament contest following cycles with numerous national contests. Then, using data from the European Election Study, I argue that this is the result of frequent elections decreasing turnout particularly among already low interest voters who stay home. My findings have implications for how formal rules of multi-level elections shape political behavior more generally and voter fatigue in particular.

scholarly journals Analysis and Prediction of Pedestrians’ Violation Behavior at the Intersection Based on a Markov Chain

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5690
Author(s):  
Chengyuan Mao ◽  
Lewen Bao ◽  
Shengde Yang ◽  
Wenjiao Xu ◽  
Qin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Road Geometry ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Pedestrian Crossing ◽  
Prediction Approach

Pedestrian violations pose a danger to themselves and other road users. Most previous studies predict pedestrian violation behaviors based only on pedestrians’ demographic characteristics. In practice, in addition to demographic characteristics, other factors may also impact pedestrian violation behaviors. Therefore, this study aims to predict pedestrian crossing violations based on pedestrian attributes, traffic conditions, road geometry, and environmental conditions. Data on the pedestrian crossing, both in compliance and in violation, were collected from 10 signalized intersections in the city of Jinhua, China. We propose an illegal pedestrian crossing behavior prediction approach that consists of a logistic regression model and a Markov Chain model. The former calculates the likelihood that the first pedestrian who decides to cross the intersection illegally within each signal cycle, while the latter computes the probability that the subsequent pedestrians who decides to follow the violation. The proposed approach was validated using data gathered from an additional signalized intersection in Jinhua city. The results show that the proposed approach has a robust ability in pedestrian violation behavior prediction. The findings can provide theoretical references for pedestrian signal timing, crossing facility optimization, and warning system design.

Does Social Media Engagement Translate to Civic Engagement Offline?

2021 ◽  
pp. 089976402199944
Author(s):  
Jaclyn Piatak ◽  
Ian Mikkelsen
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Civic Engagement ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Civic Participation ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Online Engagement ◽  
Informal Volunteering ◽  
Using Data

People increasingly engage in politics on social media, but does online engagement translate to offline engagement? Research is mixed with some suggesting how one uses the internet maters. We examine how political engagement on social media corresponds to offline engagement. Using data following the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, we find the more politically engaged people are on social media, the more likely they are to engage offline across measures of engagement—formal and informal volunteering, attending local meetings, donating to and working for political campaigns, and voting. Findings offer important nuances across types of civic engagement and generations. Although online engagement corresponds to greater engagement offline in the community and may help narrow generational gaps, this should not be the only means to promote civic participation to ensure all have a voice and an opportunity to help, mobilize, and engage.

Theoretical Framework and Models

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Leighley ◽  
Jonathan Nagler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Demographic Characteristic ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
The Impact

This chapter introduces the theoretical framework that guides the analyses and discussions of the determinants of voter turnout. It adopts a model of turnout that poses an individual's decision to vote as a reflection of the costs and benefits of engaging in such behavior. Then, for each presidential election year since 1972, it estimates turnout as a function of demographic characteristics of interest. These estimates allow us to estimate the impact of one demographic characteristic (such as income) on turnout while holding other demographic characteristics (such as education and race) constant. These estimates are referred to as “conditional” relationships. The findings suggest that the conditional relationships between education and turnout, and income and turnout (i.e., conditional income bias) have been relatively stable (or modestly reduced) since 1972. Important changes in the conditional relationships between age, race, gender, and turnout have also been observed.

May I Talk to You for a Minute? An Assessment of Street Stops and Officer Decision-Making

2021 ◽  
pp. 001112872110475
Author(s):  
Rob Tillyer ◽  
Michael R. Smith ◽  
Caleb D. Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Overwhelming Majority ◽  
Traffic Stops ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Insight Into

The overwhelming majority of research on officer-initiated contacts with civilians is drawn from traffic stops, while relatively little is known about officer decision-making during non-vehicular, street stops. The current study fills this gap by examining intrusive detentions, investigatory actions and enforcement activities undertaken by the police during street stops. Using data from a racially/ethnic diverse metropolitan area, analyses examine encounter-related variables, civilian and officer-related demographic characteristics, and contextual correlates of actions undertaken during these incidents. Conclusions drawn from this study provide specific insight into the patterns and practices of street stop encounters and offer a contribution to our broader understanding of police-civilian encounters.

Race, Gender, and the 2016 Presidential Election

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 755-761
Author(s):  
Tasha S. Philpot
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Data File ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Racialized Gender ◽  
Series Study

ABSTRACTWith the first female presidential candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket, the gender gap in 2016 was predicted to be the largest ever. Although the gender gap proved to be bigger than any other in recent history, with a majority of women voting for Hillary Clinton, a disaggregation of the vote by race indicated that not all women equally supported the female presidential candidate. This suggests the existence of a racialized gender gap not previously explored by extant research. Thus, this article explores the nature of this interracial gender gap by examining the political evaluations of men and women, by race, in the 2016 presidential election. Using data from the 2016 American National Election Study (ANES) Time Series Study merged with the ANES Cumulative Data File (1948–2012), predictors of the gender gap were explored and the circumstances under which an interracial gender gap can be narrowed were examined.

scholarly journals RACE, JUSTICE, POLICING, AND THE 2016 AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Drakulich ◽  
John Hagan ◽  
Devon Johnson ◽  
Kevin H. Wozniak
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
War On Crime ◽  
Perceptions Of Police ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
Attitudes Toward The Police ◽  
Modern Era

AbstractScholars have long been interested in the intersection of race, crime, justice, and presidential politics, focusing particularly on the “southern strategy” and the “war on crime.” A recent string of highly-publicized citizen deaths at the hands of police and the emergence of the Black Lives Matter movement have brought renewed visibility to this racially-driven intersection, and in particular to issues involving contact with and attitudes toward the police. Using data from the 2016 Pilot Study of the American National Election Studies, this study explores how contact with the criminal justice system and perceptions of police injustice shape political behavior in the modern era, with a specific emphasis on prospective participation and candidate choice in the 2016 presidential election. The results indicate that being stopped by the police—an experience that can feel invasive and unjust—may motivate political participation, while spending time in jail or prison—an experience associated with a marginalization from mainstream civic life—appears to discourage political participation. Perceiving the police as discriminatory also seems to motivate political engagement and participation, though in opposite directions for conservative versus liberal voters. In addition, perceptions of police injustice were related to candidate choice, driving voters away from Donald Trump. Affective feelings about the police were not associated with candidate choice. Perceptions of the police appear to act in part as a proxy for racial resentments, at least among potential voters in the Republican primary. In sum, the intersection of race, justice, and policing remains highly relevant in U.S. politics.

Voting for Wage Concessions: The Case of the 1982 GM-UAW Negotiations

ILR Review ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce E. Kaufman ◽  
Jorge Martinez-Vazquez
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Median Voter ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Voter Model ◽  
Median Voter Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Stable Employment ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The authors of this paper use the median voter model to predict the patterns of rank-and-file voting on wage concessions in a multiplant setting, then test those predictions using data from the 1982 GM-UAW negotiations. The model predicts that workers in plants with large layoffs will vote in favor of a wage concession only if they believe that a concession will save their jobs. Surprisingly, workers in plants with growing or stable employment are also actually more likely to vote Yes. A third prediction is that the Yes vote will be smallest in plants with the most adversarial labor relations. The empirical analysis supports all three predictions.

High-Profile Female Executive Candidates and the Political Engagement of Women

2016 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Carreras
Keyword(s):  
Political Engagement ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Executive Leaders ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Executive Politics ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Comparative Study ◽  
Mass Level

The number of salient female executive leaders has dramatically increased over the last two decades. In many countries, executive politics is no longer an exclusive male domain. Using data from the four waves of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems surveys and from several waves of the AmericasBarometer surveys, I investigate whether the presence of salient female executive candidates in high-profile national elections influences women’s political engagement in the electoral process. The analysis reveals that the presence of viable female candidates has no immediate impact on women’s political engagement at the mass level.

scholarly journals 'A Generational Earthquake'?: An Analysis of the 2002 Presidential Election in South Korea

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 23-39
Author(s):  
Carl J. Saxer
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Present Article ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
National Elections ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Previous Election ◽  
Predominant Factor

The 2002 presidential election in South Korea was seen by some commentators as a 'generational earthquake'. It was argued that younger voters, defi ned as those belonging to the 20–30 age groups, had become more mobilized and active than in any previous election, and that consequently the persistent regionalism that had characterized South Korean national elections for so long was fi nally at an end. It was also claimed that the 2002 election marked a repositioning of ideology and policy preferences at centre stage. The present article, however, argues that while ideology and policy preferences did indeed assume greater importance, and while generational issues also came to the fore, yet the predominant factor in the 2002 election remained – as in previous presidential elections in South Korea – a persistent, almost static, regional voting pattern.

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