Building Scenarios With the Three Tomorrows

2021 ◽  
pp. 194675672110255
Author(s):  
Jordi Serra del Pino
Keyword(s):  
General Structure ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Futures Research ◽  
Stage Process

Postnormal times, as a concept and as a theory, was conceived in a futures studies context by futurists, yet there have some doubts regarding its applicability when engaging in actual futures research. The arrival of Sardar and Sweeney’s article “The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times” seemed to provide the missing method. Yet, despite the authors’ claim, the three tomorrows is not a method, nor does their article explain how to develop the tomorrows. However, it is possible to build future scenario using the three tomorrows not as a method but as an approach. As an approach, the three tomorrows offer a general structure in which it is possible to undertake a futures research. To prove it, this article presents a three-stage process that can help any researcher construct scenarios following the tenets of postnormal times theory.

An Intervention Targetting Hopelessness in Adolescents by Promoting Positive Future Images

2001 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 51-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M Gidley
Keyword(s):  
Primary Prevention ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Psychology Research ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Psychological Literature ◽  
Futures Research ◽  
The Future ◽  
Images Of The Future

This paper presents some ground-work for the development of a new theoretical approach which has the potential to contribute to primary prevention of suicide in adolescents by targetting hopelessness. Drawing on the extensive psychological literature which has linked hopelessness with depression and suicide risk for decades, the author notes that although there is a strong research and clinical base for targetting depression, there is a gap in the psychological literature when it comes to targetting hopelessness, specifically. Looking beyond the psychology field to the futures studies research field, the author draws links between the psychology research that does exist and the youth futures research which correlates rising youth suicide rates with growing fears and negativity of young people towards the future. Based on this new theoretical perspective, an intervention has been developed and is detailed here which attempts to reduce hopelessness in adolescents by promoting more positive images of the future.

The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Fergnani
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
User Centered Design ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Creation Process ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mind ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise. Design/methodology/approach After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed. Findings Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience. Practical implications Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization. Originality/value Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.

Focused Futures from Finland

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petri Tapio ◽  
Sirkka Heinonen
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Small Unit ◽  
Research Education ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Futures Research ◽  
Research Institutes ◽  
The Future

The purpose of this article is to review the futures studies activities performed in Finland, focusing especially on Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). The activities include research, education as well as societal interaction and networking. The FFRC has proceeded from a small unit of three devoted persons in 1992 to one of the key futures research institutes in Europe with about fifty staff members, hundreds of research and developmental projects, and more than a thousand publications. Although acknowledging the variety of futures studies topics and approaches nourished by the researchers, we conclude that facilitating expert-based and stakeholder-based futures studies processes is the key competence of the FFRC. Hybrid methods are continuously developed, meaning combinations of more specific techniques. A proper mix of tools and approaches to gather, analyze, organize, and interpret data is always searched for. At the end of the article, we present four scenarios of the future of the FFRC jointly made by the staff.

4. Crystal balls, flying cars, and robots

2017 ◽  
pp. 82-99
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Gidley
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Science Fiction ◽  
High Technology ◽  
Space Technology ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Methodological Innovation ◽  
Crystal Ball ◽  
Substantial Body ◽  
Futures Research ◽  
The Media

In spite of the substantial body of futures literature with its conceptual and methodological innovation and engagement with real world issues, misconceptions abound in academic, professional, and policy circles. The term ‘future’ is increasingly used in these circles without reference to the published futures studies material. ‘Crystal balls, flying cars, and robots’ considers general misunderstandings and the trivialization of futures research by the media. Futurists are not crystal ball gazers; they are not all involved in high-technology, flying machines, space-technology, and science fiction; and future studies is not dominantly involved with robotics, drones, and artificial intelligence. The concepts of transhumanism, posthumanism, and dehumanization are also discussed.

scholarly journals Futures studies in Finland

2015 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erzsébet Nováky ◽  
Eszter Monda
Keyword(s):  
Historical Background ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Futures Research ◽  
The Future ◽  
Societal Changes ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Major Emphasis

The development of futures studies and the future-oriented attitude of Finnish institutions and the government can serve as great example for other countries. This attitude appears in education and economy, issues in which Finland is highly competitive in Europe. We introduce the futures studies-related organizations and the foresight system of Finland. An overview of the development of futures studies and the activities, purposes of foresight institutions, with a major emphasis on the Finland Futures Research Centre will be presented. The main question is how could other countries utilize the Finnish example? Societal changes depend on the environment and its historical background, making it quite a challenge to come up with an all-adaptable answer for this question. Thus we will only present guidelines and proposals regarding the development of strategy at the end of this paper.

Electron diffraction detection of ordliking in annealed PbTe thin film

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 1018-1019
Author(s):  
Karimat El-Sayed
Keyword(s):  
Thin Film ◽  
Electron Diffraction ◽  
Lead Telluride ◽  
Structural Basis ◽  
Face Centered Cubic ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Polycrystalline Thin Films ◽  
Stage Process ◽  
Diffraction Patterns ◽  
Face Centered

Lead telluride is an important semiconductor of many applications. Many Investigators showed that there are anamolous descripancies in most of the electrophysical properties of PbTe polycrystalline thin films on annealing. X-Ray and electron diffraction studies are being undertaken in the present work in order to explain the cause of this anamolous behaviour.Figures 1-3 show the electron diffraction of the unheated, heated in air at 100°C and heated in air at 250°C respectively of a 300°A polycrystalline PbTe thin film. It can be seen that Fig. 1 is a typical [100] projection of a face centered cubic with unmixed (hkl) indices. Fig. 2 shows the appearance of faint superlattice reflections having mixed (hkl) indices. Fig. 3 shows the disappearance of thf superlattice reflections and the appearance of polycrystalline PbO phase superimposed on the [l00] PbTe diffraction patterns. The mechanism of this three stage process can be explained on structural basis as follows :

Process \'prǎ|,ses\n: The Action of Moving Forward Progressively from One Point to Another on the Way to Completion

1979 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol A. Pruning
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Communicative Behaviors ◽  
Adult Level ◽  
Remedial Programs ◽  
Stage Process ◽  
The Way

A rationale for the application of a stage process model for the language-disordered child is presented. The major behaviors of the communicative system (pragmatic-semantic-syntactic-phonological) are summarized and organized in stages from pre-linguistic to the adult level. The article provides clinicians with guidelines, based on complexity, for the content and sequencing of communicative behaviors to be used in planning remedial programs.

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