scholarly journals Association between clinical risk scores and mortality in atrial fibrillation: Systematic review and network meta-regression of 669,000 patients

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 633-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Proietti ◽  
Alessio Farcomeni ◽  
Giulio Francesco Romiti ◽  
Arianna Di Rocco ◽  
Filippo Placentino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Negative Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
High Negative Predictive Value ◽  
Meta Regression

Aims Many clinical scores for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation have been proposed, and some have been useful in predicting all-cause mortality. We aim to analyse the relationship between clinical risk score and all-cause death occurrence in atrial fibrillation patients. Methods We performed a systematic search in PubMed and Scopus from inception to 22 July 2017. We considered the following scores: ATRIA-Stroke, ATRIA-Bleeding, CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, HAS-BLED, HATCH and ORBIT. Papers reporting data about scores and all-cause death rates were considered. Results Fifty studies and 71 scores groups were included in the analysis, with 669,217 patients. Data on ATRIA-Bleeding, CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED were available. All the scores were significantly associated with an increased risk for all-cause death. All the scores showed modest predictive ability at five years (c-indexes (95% confidence interval) CHADS2: 0.64 (0.63–0.65), CHA2DS2-VASc: 0.62 (0.61–0.64), HAS-BLED: 0.62 (0.58–0.66)). Network meta-regression found no significant differences in predictive ability. CHA2DS2-VASc score had consistently high negative predictive value (≥94%) at one, three and five years of follow-up; conversely it showed the highest probability of being the best performing score (63% at one year, 60% at three years, 68% at five years). Conclusion In atrial fibrillation patients, contemporary clinical risk scores are associated with an increased risk of all-cause death. Use of these scores for death prediction in atrial fibrillation patients could be considered as part of holistic clinical assessment. The CHA2DS2-VASc score had consistently high negative predictive value during follow-up and the highest probability of being the best performing clinical score.

scholarly journals Combining Clinical and Polygenic Risk Improves Stroke Prediction Among Individuals with Atrial Fibrillation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack W. O'Sullivan ◽  
Anna Shcherbina ◽  
Johanne M. Justesen ◽  
Mintu Turakhia ◽  
Marco Perez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Clinical Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk

Background - Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a five-fold increased risk of ischemic stroke. A portion of this risk is heritable, however current risk stratification tools (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) don't include family history or genetic risk. We hypothesized that we could improve ischemic stroke prediction in patients with AF by incorporating polygenic risk scores (PRS). Methods - Using data from the largest available GWAS in Europeans, we combined over half a million genetic variants to construct a PRS to predict ischemic stroke in patients with AF. We externally validated this PRS in independent data from the UK Biobank, both independently and integrated with clinical risk factors. The integrated PRS and clinical risk factors risk tool had the greatest predictive ability. Results - Compared with the currently recommended risk tool (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc), the integrated tool significantly improved net reclassification (NRI: 2.3% (95%CI: 1.3% to 3.0%)), and fit (χ2 P =0.002). Using this improved tool, >115,000 people with AF would have improved risk classification in the US. Independently, PRS was a significant predictor of ischemic stroke in patients with AF prospectively (Hazard Ratio: 1.13 per 1 SD (95%CI: 1.06 to 1.23)). Lastly, polygenic risk scores were uncorrelated with clinical risk factors (Pearson's correlation coefficient: -0.018). Conclusions - In patients with AF, there appears to be a significant association between PRS and risk of ischemic stroke. The greatest predictive ability was found with the integration of PRS and clinical risk factors, however the prediction of stroke remains challenging.

Abstract 13771: Combining Clinical and Polygenic Risk Improves Stroke Prediction Among Individuals With Atrial Fibrillation

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack W Osullivan ◽  
Anna Shcherbina ◽  
Johanne M Justesen ◽  
Mintu Turakhia ◽  
Marco V Perez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Clinical Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Increased Risk

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a five-fold increased risk of ischemic stroke. A portion of this risk is heritable, however current risk stratification tools (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) don’t include family history or genetic risk. Hypothesis: A polygenic risk scores (PRS) is both independently, and in integrated with clinical risk factors, predictive of ischemic stroke in patients with Atrial Fibrillation. Methods: Using data from the largest available GWAS in Europeans, we combined over half a million genetic variants to construct a PRS to predict ischemic stroke in patients with AF. We externally validated this PRS in independent data from the UK Biobank (UK Biobank), both independently and integrated with clinical risk factors. Results: The integrated PRS and clinical risk factors risk tool had the greatest predictive ability. Compared with the currently recommended risk tool (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc), the integrated tool significantly improved net reclassification (NRI: 2.3% (95%CI: 1.3% to 3.0%)), and fit (χ2 P =0.002). Independently, PRS was a significant predictor of ischemic stroke in patients with AF prospectively (Hazard Ratio: 1.13 per 1 SD (95%CI: 1.04 to 1.21)). Lastly, polygenic risk scores were uncorrelated with clinical risk factors (Pearson’s correlation coefficient: -0.018). Conclusions: In patients with AF, there appears to be a significant association between PRS and risk of ischemic stroke. The greatest predictive ability was found with the integration of PRS and clinical risk factors, however the prediction of stroke remains challenging.

scholarly journals Combining clinical and polygenic risk improves stroke prediction among individuals with atrial fibrillation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack W. O’Sullivan ◽  
Anna Shcherbina ◽  
Johanne M Justesen ◽  
Mintu Turakhia ◽  
Marco Perez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Clinical Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Increased Risk

AbstractBackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a five-fold increased risk of ischemic stroke. A portion of this risk is heritable, however current risk stratification tools (CHA2DS2-VASc) don’t include family history or genetic risk. We hypothesized that we could improve ischemic stroke prediction in patients with AF by incorporating polygenic risk scores (PRS).ObjectivesTo construct and test a PRS to predict ischemic stroke in patients with AF, both independently and integrated with clinical risk factors.MethodsUsing data from the largest available GWAS in Europeans, we combined over half a million genetic variants to construct a PRS to predict ischemic stroke in patients with AF. We externally validated this PRS in independent data from the UK Biobank (UK Biobank), both independently and integrated with clinical risk factors.ResultsThe integrated PRS and clinical risk factors risk tool had the greatest predictive ability. Compared with the currently recommended risk tool (CHA2DS2-VASc), the integrated tool significantly improved net reclassification (NRI: 2.3% (95%CI: 1.3% to 3.0%)), and fit (χ2 P =0.002). Using this improved tool, >115,000 people with AF would have improved risk classification in the US. Independently, PRS was a significant predictor of ischemic stroke in patients with AF prospectively (Hazard Ratio: 1.13 per 1 SD (95%CI: 1.06 to 1.23))). Lastly, polygenic risk scores were uncorrelated with clinical risk factors (Pearson’s correlation coefficient: −0.018).ConclusionsIn patients with AF, there appears to be a significant association between PRS and risk of ischemic stroke. The greatest predictive ability was found with the integration of PRS and clinical risk factors, however the prediction of stroke remains challenging.

Isolated demyelinating syndromes: comparison of CSF oligoclonal bands and different MR imaging criteria to predict conversion to CDMS

2001 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 359-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Tintoré ◽  
A Rovira ◽  
L Brieva ◽  
E Grivé ◽  
R Jardí ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mr Imaging ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Negative Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Oligoclonal Bands ◽  
High Negative Predictive Value ◽  
Csf Oligoclonal Bands ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

Aim of the study: To evaluate and compare the capacity of oligoclonal bands (OB) and three sets of MR imaging criteria to predict the conversion of clinically isolated syndromes (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). Patients and methods: One hundred and twelve patients with CIS were prospectively studied with MR imaging and determination of OB. Based on the clinical follow-up (conversion or not conversion to CDMS), we calculated the sensitivity, specificity accuracy, positive and negative predictive value of the OB, and MR imaging criteria proposed by Paty et al, Fazekas et al and Barkhof et al. Results: CDMS developed in 26 (23.2%) patients after a mean follow-up of 31 months (range 12-62). OB were positive in 70 (62.5%) patients and were associated with a higher risk of developing CDMS. OB showed a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 43%, accuracy of 52%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 30% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 88%. Paty and Fazekas criteria showed the same results with a sensitivity of 77%, specificity of 51%, accuracy of 57%, positive predictive value of 32% and negative predictive value of 88%. Barkhof criteria showed a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 70%, accuracy of 69%, PPV of 40% and NPV of 87%. The greatest accuracy was achieved when patients with positive OB and three or four Barkhof's criteria were selected. Conclusions: We observed a high prevalence of OB in CIS. OB and MR imaging (Paty's and Fazekas' criteria) have high sensitivity. Barkhof's criteria have a higher specificity. Both OB and MR imaging criteria have a high negative predictive value.

scholarly journals Association between thromboembolic and bleeding risk with adverse outcomes in contemporary European atrial fibrillation patients: final analysis from the ESC-EHRA EORP AF general long-term registry

EP Europace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
G Boriani ◽  
M Proietti ◽  
C Laroche ◽  
L Fauchier ◽  
F Marin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction The ESC-EHRA EORP AF General Long-Term Registry provides a contemporary snapshot of European atrial fibrillation (AF) patients’ characteristics and management. Aims: We present data about the final 2-years follow-up observation of AF patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP AF General Long-Term Registry. Methods A contemporary evaluation of residual risk of adverse outcomes in a cohort of largely anticoagulated AF patients according to the baseline thromboembolic and bleeding risk, defined according to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. We determined cardiovascular (CV) events, CV death and all-cause death as outcomes. Results Among the original 11069 patients enrolled, 8409 (76.0%) patients had available follow-up status at the end of the 2-years follow-up. Patients age, female sex and most comorbidities were progressively more prevalent across the spectrum of thromboembolic and bleeding risk. Data on adverse outcomes were available for 10087 (91.1%), over the 2-year observation period. Outcome rates were progressively higher across CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores (all p < 0.0001). A fully adjusted Cox multivariable regression analysis, adjusted for clinical covariates selected by a univariate procedure and not included in the scores, showed that increasing baseline CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with an higher risk for CV events (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21-1.30), CV death (HR: 1.31, 95%CI: 1.25-1.38) and all-cause death (HR: 1.30, 95%CI: 1.25-1.36). Similarly, increasing baseline HAS-BLED score was associated with an increased risk for all 3 outcomes (HR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.13-1.28; HR: 1.24, 95%CI: 1.14-1.34; HR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.14-1.31, respectively). An association with a progressively higher risk was found for all outcomes across the spectrum of thromboembolic and bleeding risk [Figure]. Both CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores showed a modest to good predictive ability for cardiovascular (CV) events, CV death and all-cause death, in terms of c-index and 95% CI[0.66 (0.64-0.68) and 0.62 (0.61-0.64), 0.70 (0.68-0.72) and 0.65 (0.63-0.67), 0.69 (0.68-0.71) and 0.64 (0.63-0.66) for CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED for each outcome respectively. Conclusions In this large contemporary European-wide cohort of AF patients, both baseline thromboembolic and bleeding risks were associated to an increased risk of major clinical outcomes. Both scores are reflective of high risk clinical states, and are predictive of major adverse outcomes even in a large cohort of largely anticoagulated patients with a lower residual risk of adverse outcomes. Abstract Figure.

Abstract 18028: Inclusion of B-type Natriuretic Peptide into Existing Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Risk Scores Improves Identification of Patients with Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation after Pulmonary Vein Isolation

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Y Shaikh ◽  
Nada Esa ◽  
Menhel Kinno ◽  
William Martin-Doyle ◽  
Kevin C Floyd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Pulmonary Vein ◽  
Natriuretic Peptide ◽  
Pulmonary Vein Isolation ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Discriminative Ability ◽  
Composite Risk ◽  
Af Recurrence

AIMS: Pre-procedural identification of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who will remain free from AF after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) remains challenging. Clinical risk scores, including CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, R2CHADS2, and HATCH scores show modest discriminative ability with respect to AF recurrence. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is associated with risk for AF and AF recurrence but is not currently included in existing AF risk scores. We sought to evaluate the incremental benefit of adding pre-operative BNP to existing risk scores in predicting AF recurrence within 6-months after PVI. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and fifty one patients (105 men, age 60 ± 10 years) with paroxysmal or persistent AF underwent an index PVI procedure between 2010-2014. Seventy-seven patients had an AF recurrence (51%) over the 6-month follow-up period. BNP level of >100 units was significantly associated with 6-month AF recurrence in univariate models (p<0.001). A composite risk score including BNP to the existing scores significantly improved their predictive value and net AF recurrence reclassification (net reclassification index, 63.4%; p<0.001) (Table 1). CONCLUSIONS: Addition of BNP to existing AF risk scores enhanced their predictive value and discriminative ability in predicting AF recurrence after PVI. Further research is needed including large and diverse cohorts of patients undergoing ablation and monitored for AF recurrence over extended periods to further validate the performance of this composite score.

Incidence, type and prediction of death in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation: a post-hoc analysis from the SPORTIF trials

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Proietti ◽  
J.M River-Caravaca ◽  
D Pastori ◽  
G.Y.H Lip
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Comorbidity Index ◽  
Post Hoc ◽  
Anticoagulated Patients

Abstract Introduction Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at substantially increased risk of death. Uncertainty still remains about the best risk tool to to stratify and predict mortality risk. Aim To report the incidence of death according to cause in anticoagulated AF patients. Second, to evaluate the predictive ability of several risk scores. Methods Patients from the warfarin arms of the SPORTIF trials were considered for analysis. All-cause death, cardiovascular (CV) death and non-CV death were study outcomes. The 2MACE score, crude number of diseases (CND), charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and GARFIELD-AF Death score were predictive tools. Results 3665 patients (mean [SD] age 70.9 [8.9] years. 69.5% males; median [IQR] CHA2DS2-VASc 3 [2–4]) were analysed. Median [IQR] scores were: 2MACE 2 [1–3]; CND 5 [3–7]; CCI 2 [1–3]. Throughout a median [IQR] of 567 [491–652] days there were 204 (5.6%) all-cause deaths, 134 (3.7%) CV deaths and 70 (1.9%) non-CV deaths. The incidence of all-cause death was 3.59 per 100 patient-years, and for CV death and non-CV death, 2.39 per 100 patient-years and 1.23 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Cumulative incidence of all cause, CV and non-CV deaths is are shown in the Figure. After multivariable adjustment, all the tools were found associated with an increased risk of all-cause death (2MACE HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.17–1.40; CND HR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04–1.11; CCI HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.22–1.44; GARFIELD-AF Death HR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.52–2.26 per each 0.100 increase). Similar results were found for CV death and non-CV death. All risk tools were only modestly predictive of the three outcomes (c-indexes &lt;0.7; Table). In predicting all-cause death, CCI and GARFIELD-AF Death were similarly predictive with small differences compared to other tools; conversely 2MACE and GARFIELD-AF Death showed similar predictive capacity for CV death, while CND and CCI had a slightly better predictivity for non-CV death. Conclusions AF patients have a high mortality, particularly for CV death. All risk scores are associated with occurrence of all-cause mortality, having a similar (but modest) predictive capacity. GARFIELD-AF Death and the simpler 2MACE had the highest predictive value for CV death, while multimorbidity tools (CND and CCI) were more predictive for Non-CV death. Cumulative Incidence of Death Events Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Long-term Non-Invasive ECG-based Risk Stratification of Sudden Cardiac Death: Extended 5-year Results

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Okisheva ◽  
Dmitry Tsaregorodtsev ◽  
Vitaly Sulimov
Keyword(s):  
Sudden Cardiac Death ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Cardiac Death ◽  
Ecg Monitoring ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
High Negative Predictive Value

<p>Objectives: To evaluate predictive value of heart rate turbulence (HRT), deceleration capacity (DC) and microvolt T-wave alternans (mTWA) for risk stratification for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients after myocardial infarction (MI) during 60 months of follow-up.</p><p>Methods: We studied 111 patients after MI occurred &gt; 60 days (27 [9; 84] months) before enrollment (84 men; mean age 64.1±10.5 years). All subjects had 24-hour ambulatory ECG monitoring with HRT, DC and mTWA evaluation. Follow-up period was 60 months; primary endpoint was SCD, secondary endpoint included all non-sudden cardiovascular deaths.</p><p>Results: During follow-up, we registered 19 cases of SCD and 11 cases of non-sudden cardiovascular deaths (including 7 fatal MI and 3 fatal strokes). DC had high negative predictive value (97.4% for all-cause mortality and 93.7% for SCD). DC values below 4.15 for all-cause mortality and 2.0 for SCD significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (OR 8.5, 95% CI 2.9 to 24.6, р&lt;0.001) и SCD (OR 9.6, 95% CI 3.2 to 28.5, р&lt;0.001). Combined risk assessment at 12 months revealed that the most significant combination was HRT2 and mTWA100 &gt; 53 mcV, which increased risk both of all-cause mortality (30.7-fold) and SCD (63.3-fold); however, at 60 months this predictive value for SCD decreased (OR = 20.8 (95% CI 2.8 to 114.0), p &lt;0.001).</p>Conclusion: Evaluation of HRT, DC and mTWA during 24-hour ECG monitoring may define the high risk of cardiovascular mortality and SCD in post-MI patients especially during the first 12 months after the baseline examination.

scholarly journals Physician–Pharmacist Collaborative Clinic Model to Improve Anticoagulation Quality in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Receiving Warfarin: An Analysis of Time in Therapeutic Range and a Nomogram Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Wang ◽  
Sha Qiu ◽  
Ya Yang ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Zhi-Chun Gu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Therapeutic Range ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Bleeding Events ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Time In Therapeutic Range ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of

Background: Poor time in therapeutic range (TTR) control is associated with an increased risk of stroke and bleeding in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients receiving warfarin. This study aimed to determine whether the physician–pharmacist collaborative clinic (PPCC) model could improve the anticoagulation quality as well as to create a nomogram for predicting anticoagulation quality in AF patients.Methods: This retrospective observational study enrolled AF patients who either initially received warfarin or returned to warfarin after withdrawal between January 1, 2016 and January 1, 2021, at our institution. The primary outcome was dynamic changes in TTRs (a TTR of ≥60% considered high anticoagulation quality). The secondary outcomes were thromboembolic and bleeding events during follow-up. We compared the dynamic changes in TTRs between the general clinic (GC) and PPCC groups in both the original and propensity score matching (PSM) cohorts. In addition, we explored the potential predictors of high anticoagulation quality and subsequently formulated a nomogram to predict anticoagulation quality.Results: A total of 265 patients with AF were included, comprising 57 patients in the PPCC group and 208 patients in the GC group. During a median follow-up period of 203 days, the PPCC group had a shorter time (76 vs. 199 days, p &lt; 0.001) and more patients achieved a TTR ≥60% (73.7 vs. 47.1%, p = 0.002 by log-rank test) than the GC group. The results from the PSM cohort confirmed this finding. No significant differences in the incidences of thromboembolic events (5.3 vs. 5.3%, p = 1.000) and bleeding events (4.3 vs. 3.5%, p = 1.000) were observed between the two groups. Four variables were explored as predictors related to high anticoagulation quality: treatment within a PPCC, history of bleeding, history of bleeding, and the presence of more than four comorbidities. The nomogram revealed a moderate predictive ability (c-index: 0.718, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.669–0.767) and a moderately fitted calibration curve.Conclusion: The PPCC model contributed to improved anticoagulation quality in AF patients receiving warfarin. The nomogram might be an effective tool to predict anticoagulation quality and could aid physicians and pharmacists in the selection of patients who will likely benefit from sustained and active intervention.

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