scholarly journals An epidemiological investigation of the 2019 suspected pertussis outbreak in northwestern Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 205031212110083
Author(s):  
Omoleke Semeeh ◽  
Biniam Getachew ◽  
Yusuf Taofik ◽  
Lukman Surajudeen ◽  
Assad Hassan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Adjusted Odds Ratio ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Vaccine Preventable Diseases

Introduction: In 2019, we investigated the profile of the cases and controls and the determinants of pertussis transmission in Kebbi State, Northwestern Nigeria, to inform better immunization and surveillance strategies. Methods: Community-based unmatched case–control study and review of the 2019 pertussis routine surveillance data in the affected settlements in the state were conducted. A total of 52 suspected cases of pertussis and 107 control from two local government areas in Kebbi State were recruited. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results: The highest attack rate was observed among between 1- and 4-year age group followed by children less than 1-year old, and the least attack rate was among those above 15 years. The overall attack rate and the case fatality rate were 2.10% and 0.10%, respectively. A higher attack rate was observed among women, whereas the case fatality rate was more among males. From the community survey, we observed that the cases were less likely to have pertussis vaccination history (adjusted odds ratio = 0.28, 95% confidence interval = 0.11–0.74) compared with the controls. Knowing pertussis prevention methods were found protective for pertussis transmission (adjusted odds ratio = 0.14, 95% confidence interval = 0.04–0.45). Conclusion: This study showed the vulnerability of children under 5 years, especially under 1 year, to vaccine-preventable diseases in rural populations, where “real” immunization coverage is sub-optimal, and the dominant socio-demographic factors are supportive of disease transmission. We found immunization and knowledge of the preventive measures to be protective against pertussis outbreaks. Therefore, routine immunization services must be intensified to improve coverage and prevent future pertussis outbreak(s).

Strategies for Improving Vaccine Delivery: A Cluster-Randomized Trial

2018 ◽  
pp. 101-109
Author(s):  
Linda Y. Fu ◽  
Kathleen Zook ◽  
Janet A. Gingold ◽  
Catherine W. Gillespie ◽  
Christine Briccetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Randomized Trial ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Adjusted Odds Ratio ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Virtual Learning ◽  
Cluster Randomized Trial ◽  
Learning Collaborative ◽  
Cluster Randomized

OBJECTIVE New emphasis on and requirements for demonstrating health care quality have increased the need for evidence-based methods to disseminate practice guidelines. With regard to impact on pediatric immunization coverage, we aimed to compare a financial incentive program (pay-for-performance [P4P]) and a virtual quality improvement technical support (QITS) learning collaborative. METHODS This single-blinded (to outcomes assessor), cluster-randomized trial was conducted among unaffiliated pediatric practices across the United States from June 2013 to June 2014. Practices received either the P4P or QITS intervention. All practices received a Vaccinator Toolkit. P4P practices participated in a tiered financial incentives program for immunization coverage improvement. QITS practices participated in a virtual learning collaborative. Primary outcome was percentage of all needed vaccines received (PANVR). We also assessed immunization up-to-date (UTD) status. RESULTS Data were analyzed from 3, 147 patient records from 32 practices. Practices in the study arms reported similar QI activities (∼6 to 7 activities). We found no difference in PANVR between P4P and QITS (mean ± SE, 90.7% ± 1.1% vs 86.1% ± 1.3%, P = 0.46). Likewise, there was no difference in odds of being UTD between study arms (adjusted odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.52, P = .93). In within-group analysis, patients in both arms experienced nonsignificant increases in PANVR. Similarly, the change in adjusted odds of UTD over time was modest and nonsignificant for P4P but reached significance in the QITS arm (adjusted odds ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.60, P = .03). CONCLUSIONS Participation in either a financial incentives program or a virtual learning collaborative led to self-reported improvements in immunization practices but minimal change in objectively measured immunization coverage.

scholarly journals Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID-19: Meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqing He ◽  
Grace Y. Yi ◽  
Yayuan Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Incubation Time ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID-19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscripts conduct a meta-analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% interval (2.41, 3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% confidence interval (4.77, 5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% confidence interval (18.48%, 73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% confidence interval (1.29%, 4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for.

scholarly journals Role of Environmental Temperature on the Attack rate and Case fatality rate of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1792620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad M. Hassan ◽  
Mohamed E. El Zowalaty ◽  
Shahneaz A. Khan ◽  
Ariful Islam ◽  
Md. Raihan K. Nayem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Environmental Temperature ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate

Impact of a multifaceted intervention to improve emergency care on newborn and child health outcomes in Rwanda

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celestin Hategeka ◽  
Larry D Lynd ◽  
Cynthia Kenyon ◽  
Lisine Tuyisenge ◽  
Michael R Law
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Paediatric Hospital ◽  
Child Health Outcomes ◽  
And Child Health

Abstract Implementing context-appropriate neonatal and paediatric advanced life support management interventions has increasingly been recommended as one of the approaches to reduce under-five mortality in resource-constrained settings like Rwanda. One such intervention is ETAT+, which stands for Emergency Triage, Assessment and Treatment plus Admission care for severely ill newborns and children. In 2013, ETAT+ was implemented in Rwandan district hospitals. We evaluated the impact of the ETAT+ intervention on newborn and child health outcomes. We used monthly time-series data from the DHIS2-enabled Rwanda Health Management Information System from 2012 to 2016 to examine neonatal and paediatric hospital mortality rates. Each hospital contributed data for 12 and 36 months before and after ETAT+ implementation, respectively. Using controlled interrupted time-series analysis and segmented regression model, we estimated longitudinal changes in neonatal and paediatric hospital mortality rates in intervention hospitals relative to matched concurrent control hospitals. We also studied changes in case fatality rate specifically for ETAT+-targeted conditions. Our study cohort consisted of 7 intervention hospitals and 14 matched control hospitals contributing 142 424 neonatal and paediatric hospital admissions. After controlling for secular trends and autocorrelations, we found that the ETAT+ implementation had no statistically significant impact on the rate of all-cause neonatal and paediatric hospital mortality in intervention hospitals relative to control hospitals. However, the case fatality rate for ETAT+-targeted neonatal conditions decreased immediately following implementation by 5% (95% confidence interval: −9.25, −0.77) and over time by 0.8% monthly (95% confidence interval: −1.36, −0.25) in intervention hospitals compared with control hospitals. Case fatality rate for ETAT+-targeted paediatric conditions did not decrease following the ETAT+ implementation. While ETAT+ focuses on improving the quality of hospital care for both newborns and children, we only found an impact on neonatal hospital mortality for ETAT+-targeted conditions that should be interpreted with caution given the relatively short pre-intervention period and potential regression to the mean.

scholarly journals Covid-19 High Attack Rate Can Lead to High Case Fatality Rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tareef Fadhil Raham
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
P Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Paired Samples ◽  
Significant Difference

Background: During the current Covid-19 pandemic case fatality rate (CFR) estimates were subjected to a lot of debates regarding the accuracy of its estimations, predictions, and the reason of across countries variances. In this context, we conduct this study to see the relationship between attack rate (AR) and CFR. The study hypothesis is based on two: 1- evidence suggests that the mortality rate (MR) has a positive influence on case fatality ratio (CFR), 2- and increase number of Covid-19 cases leads to increased mortality rate (MR). Material and methods: Thirty countries and territories were chosen. Inclusion criterion was > 500 Covid-19 reported cases per 10,000 population inhabitants. Data on covid-19 cases and deaths was selected as it was on March 10, 2021. Statistical methods used are descriptive and one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S), the one-way ANOVA, Levene, least significant different (LSD), and matched paired-samples T-tests. Results: ANOVA test showed a significant difference at P<0.01 among all studied groups concerning AR and CFR mean values. Group of countries with MR ≥ 15 death / 104 inhabitants recorded the highest level of crude mean CFR and AR values, and recorded the highest gap with leftover groups, especially with countries reported MR of <10 death/ 104 inhabitants. There were independence 95% confidence intervals of mean CFR and AR values between countries with ≥ 15 death / 104 MR and countries with MR of <10 death /104. There was a significant difference between countries with MR ≥ 15 death / 104 inhabitants and countries with MR of <10 death / 10 4 inhabitants groups through least significant difference (LSD) test for CFR%( 0.042 p-values) and Games Howell (GH) test for AR/104 (p-value 0.000). Conclusions: CFR has a positive significant association with AR.

scholarly journals Influence of Covid-19 Vaccination Coverage on Case Fatality Rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tareef Fadhil Raham
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The One ◽  
Graphical Presentation

Abstract Background: Recent evidence suggested that an increase in Covid-19 attack rate is correlated to increased case fatality rate (CFR) Covid-19 disease severity. An increase in the attack rate was suggested to lead to an increase in the viral load a proposed mechanism leading to this association. In this context, we conduct this study to look for the influence of decreasing the number of Covid-19 cases through vaccination on CFR.Material and methods: We collected data concerning all countries/territories that implement Covid-19 vaccination at least for the last hundred days ending on 3d of April 2021. They were sixteen in number.Descriptive data analysis used included mean value, standard deviation, and graphical presentation by using Stem-Leaf charts and bar charts.Inferential data analyses used included the One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test and general linear model procedure (GLM).Results: Findings showed that in a highly significant association the mean CFR decreased in countries with > 18 Covid-19 vaccine doses per 100 inhabitants.Conclusion: Vaccination coverage may constitute another factor that determines temporal and spatial variances in CFR.

scholarly journals Assessment of Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Related to Social and Economic Factors Globally

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan ◽  
Abul Kalam ◽  
Shahanaj Shano ◽  
Md. Raihan Khan Nayem ◽  
Md. Kaisar Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Middle Income Countries

The COVID-19 outbreak has severely affected the social and economic conditions across this globe. Little is known about the relationship of COVID-19 with countries&rsquo; economic and socio-demographic status. Publicly available data on COVID-19 test rate, attack rate, case fatality rate, and recovery rate were analyzed in relation to country&rsquo;s economic status, population density, median age, and urban population ratio. We also conducted multinomial logistic regression analysis to predict the influence of countries&rsquo; social and economic factors on COVID-19. The results revealed that the median age had significant positive correlation with attack rate (r=0.2389, p=0.003), case fatality rate (r=0.3207, p=0.000) and recovery rate (r=0.4847, p=0.000). The urbanization has positive significant correlation with recovery rate (r=0.1957, p= 0.016). The multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed low-income countries are less likely to have an increased recovery rate (p=0.000) and attack rate (p=0.016) compare to high-income countries. The lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries are less likely to have an increased recovery rate (p=0.000 and p=0.001, respectively) compared to high-income countries. Based on the result of this study, these economic and socio-demographic factors should consider in designing appropriate preventive measures as a next step. The low and lower-middle-income countries should invest more in health care services to lower the case fatality rate and increase test and recovery rates as part of pandemic preparation like COVID-19. As the number of COVID-19 attacks, death and recovery rates are constantly changing; however, the intensive study is required to obtain a clear picture.

scholarly journals Perbedaan Kasus Covid-19 pada Masa Lockdown dan New Normal di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 182
Author(s):  
Nugroho Susanto
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
T Test ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
New Normal

Latar Belakang: Pandemi COVID-19 berdampak pada peningkatan angka kesakitan dan kematian di sejumlah negara. Kasus terkonfirmasi COVID-19 yang tercatat 414.179 dengan 18.440 angka kematian (CFR 4,4%) dilaporkan di 192 negara. Adanya penerapan kebijakan lockdown pada Maret-Mei 2020 dan new normal di Juni 2020 berdampak pada perbedaan kasus di kedua periode tersebut.Tujuan: Mengetahui perbedaan kasus terkonfirmasi, angka kematian, dan case fatality rate (CFR) COVID-19 antara masa lockdown dan new normal di Indonesia.Metode: Penelitian kualitatif dengan pendekatan cross-sectional disertai telaah dokumen online. Penelitian ini mengidentifikasi kasus COVID-19 selama 156 hari yang dilaporkan oleh Kementerian Kesehatan RI melalui laman https://covid19.kemkes.go.id/. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dari Maret−Agustus 2020. Analisis data menggunakan uji independent t test dengan confidence interval 95% (α = 0,05)Hasil: Rerata kasus terkonfirmasi dan kematian akibat COVID-19 lebih tinggi pada saat new normal dibanding saat lockdown, yaitu 338,6±213,1; 1483,7±485,7 dan 20,7±14,1; 58,9±21,9, sedangkan case fatalty rate lebih rendah pada new normal dibanding lockdown (0,04±0,01; 0,08±0,07). Terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan pada kasus terkonfirmasi (p = 0,000), angka kematian (p = 0,000), dan case fatalty rate COVID-19 (p = 0,000) antara masa pemberlakuan lockdown dan new normal.Kesimpulan: Meskipun rerata kasus terkonfirmasi dan kematian lebih tinggi di masa new normal, rerata fatalitas kematiannya lebih rendah.

scholarly journals Analysis of Covid - 19 Situations in Davanagere District, Karnataka

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 01-08
Author(s):  
Gouri Sakre ◽  
Gulappa Devagappanavar
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Severe Illness ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
First Case ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: According to CDC, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by a new coronavirus which was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Although most people who have COVID-19 have mild symptoms, it can also cause severe illness and even death. Some groups, including older adults and people who have certain underlying medical conditions, are at increased risk of severe illness. On February 11, 2020, the World Health Organization announced an official name for the disease that is causing the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak. The new name of this disease is coronavirus disease 2019, abbreviated as COVID-19. Objectives: Analysis of COVID 19 data in the Davanagere district from April 2020 to August 2020. Methods: In this current study the secondary data is obtained from the Official Website of Government of Karnataka, Covid-19 Informational Portal – Media Bulletin. By using different indicators Davanagere district covid data is further used to calculate Attack rate, Case fatality rate and complete case fatality rate. Results: In this study it is found that, in the month of April there were no covid positive cases reported till fourth week of month, by fourth week, total two positive cases were reported the first case being encountered on 28th April 2020, with discharge of those patient in the end of the month. The attack rate has steeped up from 8.018 to 355.74 per one lakh population i.e. about 44 times more than initial months of pandemic. The strict preventive measures were followed by public and government too. So the prevalence rate is less in May, June and went on increasing once the unlocking is done. In summer the total positive cases steeping up from 2 cases to 154 total positive cases for the month April to May, and there is steady in rise of total positive cases for the month June with total positive cases of 153. In the beginning of summer there were fewer cases as pandemic was just begun and chances of transmission were very less. As monsoon appeared in June last week there is surge in total positive cases. With added burden of Unlock 1.0 phase, as public started moving out from home without any freak of infection. Conclusion: In this study it is found that due to strict nationwide lockdown and social distancing, hygiene practices among the Davanagere people has made it possible to restrict the spread of covid among the people, although the international immigration of Davanagere residents lead to transmission of infection. Further removal of lockdown after three months has lead to three fold spread of disease. Also there is rise in death rate, attack rate and case fatality in Davanagere district.

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