scholarly journals Evaluating Legislative Districts Using Measures of Partisan Bias and Simulations

SAGE Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402098105
Author(s):  
Barry Burden ◽  
Corwin Smidt
Keyword(s):  
Future Research ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Districts

A well-developed body of research offers ways to measure the partisan advantages that result from legislative districting. Although useful to researchers and legal practitioners, those studies also suffer from theoretical, empirical, and legal limitations. In this essay, we review measures of partisan bias and methods for both simulating election results under existing maps and simulating hypothetical maps. We start by describing the concept of partisan bias and how it has been measured. Then, we turn to new simulation methods that generate hypothetical election results or districts to judge the fairness of a map. While both kinds of evaluation are useful, we point to some unresolved questions and areas for future research.

scholarly journals Interpreting Traditional Cost Contingency Methods in the Construction Industry

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Donn ◽  
Alexis Dykman ◽  
Nilesh Bakshi
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Reliable Method ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Building Industry ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Journal Paper

This research investigates how contingency is currently calculated in project budgets within the building industry. This is an important aspect to consider as a large proportion of construction projects are significantly over-budget. The study presents three non-simulation methods and one simulation method for calculating cost contingency following the results of a forthcoming journal paper. These methods are applied against a case study project in attempt to highlight the most reliable method, and to create a methodology that will be useful to the industry. This paper identifies that the traditional fixed percentage approach is not sufficient and suggests that this could be one of the main reasons why construction projects are over budget. While it is unclear which method is the most reliable, this study provides a focus for future research into reliability and utilisation of contingency methods in the building industry. The research demonstrates that current practice needs to change to reduce the large number of construction projects that run over budget.

scholarly journals Partisan Bias and Its Discontents

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 304-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter H. Ditto ◽  
Cory J. Clark ◽  
Brittany S. Liu ◽  
Sean P. Wojcik ◽  
Eric E. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Good Science ◽  
The Core ◽  
Political Differences ◽  
Liberal Bias

Baron and Jost (this issue, p. 292) present three critiques of our meta-analysis demonstrating similar levels of partisan bias in liberals and conservatives: (a) that the studies we examined were biased toward finding symmetrical bias among liberals and conservatives, (b) that the studies we examined do not measure partisan bias but rather rational Bayesian updating, and (c) that social psychology is not biased in favor of liberals but rather toward creating false equivalencies. We respond in turn that (a) the included studies covered a wide variety of issues at the core of contemporary political conflict and fairly compared bias by establishing conditions under which both liberals and conservatives would have similar motivations and opportunities to demonstrate bias; (b) we carefully selected studies that were least vulnerable to Bayesian counterexplanation, and most scientists and laypeople consider these studies demonstrations of bias; and (c) there is reason to be vigilant about liberal bias in social psychology, but this does not preclude concerns about other possible biases, all of which threaten good science. We close with recommendations for future research and urge researchers to move beyond broad generalizations of political differences that are insensitive to time and context.

Commentary on “Lobbying and Legislative Organization: The Effect of the Vote of Confidence Procedure”

2002 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Baron
Keyword(s):  
Interest Group ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Legislative Organization ◽  
Agenda Setter ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Legislative Districts

The Center for Responsive Politics reports that U.S. lobbying expenditures substantially exceed interest group campaign contributions, without including the lobbying that is not required to be reported to the government. Although it has grown in Europe, particularly with respect to the European Union, lobbying is less important than in the United States. Bennedsen and Feldmann (BF) provide an important and insightful explanation for the difference in terms of the institutional structure of governments. They present a model of informational lobbying in client politics where an interest group provides information to a majority-rule (three-member) legislature. The legislature chooses the scale of a program whose benefits can be distributed among legislative districts. The legislative agenda setter has a vote buying problem and allocates benefits to one other legislator to obtain her vote. BF compare legislatures operating with and without a confidence procedure that allows the agenda setter to tie passage of its proposal the continuation of the government. This commentary considers the method for comparing these two institutions, assesses the implications of the theory, and considers future research related to the theory.

scholarly journals Concept development for comprehensive operations support with modeling and simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-116
Author(s):  
Guido A Veldhuis ◽  
Nico M de Reus ◽  
Bas MJ Keijser
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Concept Development ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Operations Planning ◽  
Structure Information ◽  
Effective Interventions

Modern warfighting is not only conducted on the physical battlefield but also engages actors in the information and human landscapes. Across these landscapes many types of actors characterize a comprehensive environment. A commander and staff follow the operations planning process to translate a desired end-state to tactical effects and activities. Understanding the interactions between actors and factors that shape conflict and understanding how they can be influenced is highly challenging. Modeling and simulation methods that aim to describe and understand the behavior of complex systems can serve to structure information, derive problem insights, and identify effective interventions. These methods are not, however, common as part of operations planning and intelligence processes. This paper documents findings based on reported experiences from practice and based on concept development and experimentation workshops conducted with Dutch Armed Forces stakeholders. We identify eight challenges to the adoption of modeling and simulation in operations planning. We then present a decision support concept that incorporates several elements to counter the challenges identified in the form of a prototype approach called Comprehensive Operations Support with Modeling and Simulation (COSMOS). We describe the approach along several process steps, illustrated by examples from the concept development and experimentation case studies. We identify several avenues for future research assisting adoption of modeling and simulation in the operations planning process.

scholarly journals Interpreting Traditional Cost Contingency Methods in the Construction Industry

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Donn ◽  
Alexis Dykman ◽  
Nilesh Bakshi
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Reliable Method ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Building Industry ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Journal Paper

This research investigates how contingency is currently calculated in project budgets within the building industry. This is an important aspect to consider as a large proportion of construction projects are significantly over-budget. The study presents three non-simulation methods and one simulation method for calculating cost contingency following the results of a forthcoming journal paper. These methods are applied against a case study project in attempt to highlight the most reliable method, and to create a methodology that will be useful to the industry. This paper identifies that the traditional fixed percentage approach is not sufficient and suggests that this could be one of the main reasons why construction projects are over budget. While it is unclear which method is the most reliable, this study provides a focus for future research into reliability and utilisation of contingency methods in the building industry. The research demonstrates that current practice needs to change to reduce the large number of construction projects that run over budget.

scholarly journals Simulations on many scales: The synapse as an example

2004 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Tai
Keyword(s):  
Conformational Changes ◽  
Brownian Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Enzymatic Catalysis ◽  
Neuromuscular Synapse ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Substrate Molecule ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Integration Of Methods

Computer simulation methods spanning several temporal and spatial scales are reviewed, focusing on their applications on the neuromuscular synapse. Quantum mechanics treats the enzymatic catalysis of neurotransmitters on the picometer scale. Molecular dynamics reveals conformational changes of the enzyme acetylcholinesterase for nanoseconds. Brownian dynamics follow the substrate molecule in its diffusion on the microsecond level. Methods such as finite elements describe the diffusion of neurotransmitters as a changing concentration continuum in the synapse. Promising directions for future research include integration of methods on several scales, and applying these methods to the acetylcholine receptor.

scholarly journals Themes, approaches, and methods in the geographical analysis of Czech and Slovak parliamentary elections: a systematic review

2021 ◽  
pp. 248-261
Author(s):  
Dominik Kevický
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Electoral Geography ◽  
Geographical Analysis ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Election Results

This article reviews the field of electoral geography in Czechia and Slovakia. It systematically analyses selected publications to identify the most and least frequently researched topics, theories, and methods. Most of the analyzed studies strived to determine the factors underlying the uneven geographical distribution of election results. Issues of turnout and geographical representation were the least common. The cleavage theory was the most frequently applied theoretical approach, although most studies did not apply any theory. Only one study used the qualitative methodology, whereas the rest relied on quantitative methods. Most often, analyses were performed at the scale of districts and municipalities. The article identifies possible directions for future research in the electoral geography of Czechia and Slovakia.

scholarly journals I Don’t Want You to Be My President! Incivility and Media Bias During the Presidential Election in Chile

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 205630512096989
Author(s):  
Magdalena Saldaña ◽  
Andrés Rosenberg
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Media Bias ◽  
Online News ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Female Politicians ◽  
Media Ecosystem ◽  
Global North ◽  
Election Results

This study observes two relevant issues in today’s media ecosystem: incivility in online news comments and media bias during election periods. By analyzing 84 stories and 4670 comments published during the 2017 presidential election in Chile, we observed the extent to which news commenters addressed political figures using uncivil discourse, and the extent to which incivility and media bias were related in comments discussing the election. Results indicate incivility in comment sections of Chilean news outlets is higher than that found in the Global North, and the levels of uncivil speech are even higher when the conversation mentions female politicians, especially former president Michelle Bachelet. We also found a relationship between media bias and user bias—stories positively biased toward current president Sebastián Piñera were associated with more positive comments about him. Implications and future research are discussed.

scholarly journals Fusion with political leaders predicts willingness to persecute immigrants and political opponents

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas R. Kunst
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Relative Deprivation ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
Political Movements ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Independent Effects

From the 2016 US presidential election and into 2019, we demonstrate that a visceral feeling of oneness (that is, psychological fusion) with a political leader can fuel partisans’ willingness to actively participate in political violence. In studies 1 and 2, fusion with Donald Trump predicted Republicans’ willingness to violently persecute Muslims (over and above other established predictors). In study 3, relative deprivation increased fusion with Trump and, subsequently, willingness to violently challenge election results. In study 4, fusion with Trump increased after his election and predicted immigrant persecution over time. Further revealing its independent effects, this fusion with Trump predicted a willingness to persecute Iranians (independent of identification with him, study 5); a willingness to persecute immigrants (study 6); and a willingness to personally protect the US border from an immigrant caravan (study 7), even over and above fusion with the group of Trump’s followers. These findings echo past political movements and suggest critical future research.

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