External Debt Distress in South Asia: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-236
Author(s):  
Shujaat Abbas ◽  
Shahida Wizarat ◽  
Sadia Mansoor
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Socio Economic Variables

This study is an attempt to explore social and economic determinants of external debt distress in five selected South Asian countries, that is, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, from 1980 to 2018, by using the contemporary panel fixed effect model and system generalized methods of moments. The findings revealed that the major determinants of external debt distress in selected South Asian countries are large and increasing current account deficits, lower gross capital formation, foreign direct investment and large military expenditures. Among selected socio-economic variables, the increase in life expectancy increases external debt distress, whereas urbanization reduces it considerably. The study urges selected South Asian countries to correct highly unfavourable current account balance, resolve regional conflicts leading to the reduction of the arms race and make the macroeconomic environment friendly for domestic and foreign investment to reduce exploding external debt distress. JEL Classification: C33, E22, F32, H63

Military Expenditure and External Debt in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shujaat Abbas ◽  
Shahida Wizarat
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Efficient Utilization ◽  
International Investments ◽  
Effect Regression

AbstractThis study investigates the effect of military expenditure on the exploding external debt in five major South Asian economies, i.e. Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2015 using panel fixed effect regression model. The estimated result reveals that the external debt of selected South Asian countries is positively determined by their military expenditure, and negatively explained by their domestic investment activities. The study urges the efficient utilization of available capital resources into more productive investment activities to create employment for the labor force. The future prosperity of the region lies in the peaceful resolution of all outstanding disputes and a corresponding reduction in military spending that can make the region safe for domestic and international investments.

Two Crises Separated by a Decade: Political Economy of Trade Strategy and Reserves Accumulation in East Asia

2021 ◽  
pp. 263168462110320
Author(s):  
Biswajit Nag ◽  
Partha Ray
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This article seeks to explore the relationship between the global financial crisis (2007–2009) and the East Asian crisis (1997–1999) via the contribution of select East Asian countries, which led to the formation of the ‘global imbalance’, that is, experience of substantial and consistent current account surplus. Taking a cue from Bernanke’s ‘savings glut’ hypothesis, which has held ‘global imbalance’ to be a factor behind the global financial crisis, specifically, the article argues that in these countries, the nature of current account balance has undergone a sea change since the end of the 1990s. They also accumulated a substantial amount of foreign exchange reserves since then along with a major shift of trade regime and consequent trade surplus in all these countries. The article conjectures that the mishandling of the rescue package by International Monetary Fund could have induced them to go aggressively for accumulation of forex reserves. Thus, the two crises separated by a decade and in different continents are, indeed, linked through providing an incentive for brewing up of global imbalance via an activist trade policy in select East Asian countries. Seen in this context and from this standpoint, the two crises, indeed, appear to be close siblings! JEL Classification: F41, F62, O53

scholarly journals Is External Debt a Boon or a Curse? Empirical Evidence from South Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 223-232
Author(s):  
MUHAMMAD REEHAN HAMEED ◽  
MAJID ALI ◽  
HAFSAH BATOOL
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Short Run

Over the years, the South Asian countries were facing the dilemma of twin’s deficits because they had failed to generate sufficient revenues to finance their budget. Consequently, they were continuously relying on both domestic and external debt to bridge these deficits which had put a severe implication on their economic growth. Their financial position continued to deteriorate and undermined all the efforts of the governments made to stimulate economic growth. The governments in these countries failed to generate enough revenues through internal sources. Therefore, the deficits were normally fiancé through external sources. The paper examined whether the external debt was a blessing or course to the economic growth of South Asian countries i.e. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. For this purpose 30 years of panel data of these countries from 1990 to 2019 had been taken. Fixed effect model and Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Approach had been applied to examine the short-run and long-run association among the variables. The natural log of GDP per capita was used as a proxy for economic growth. The other variables were external debt, initial GDP, foreign direct investment, trade openness, investment, and secondary school investment rate. The outcomes of the study indicated that that external debt had a negative impact on economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. This revealed that external debt had not been utilized effectively and productively. The study suggested that effort would be made to manage the external debt and reduced the twin's deficits to minimize the harmful impact of external debt on the economy. Keywords: South Asian, External Debt, ARDL, Fixed Effect Model, Economic Growth.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATION EVIDENCES FROM THE NEW FRAGILE FIVE

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-282
Author(s):  
Gülgün ÇİĞDEM ◽  
Merve ALTAYLAR
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Cointegration Relationship ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose of this study is to test the association between savings and current account deficit of the “New Fragile Five” falling into critical cycle. 1994-2019 period annual national savings, current account balance and external debt have been analyzed within the framework of panel data analysis. At the modeling stage of the research focused on the cointegration relationship. Panel cointegration tests with structural breaks based on LM were used. To examine the unique economic structures of countries, heterogeneous estimating techniques were employed. The research has four important findings; i.There is a cointegration relationship between indicators, ii.The external debt increases the current account deficit, iii.The increase of savings in Turkey decreases the current account deficit, iv.An increase in savings increases the current account deficit in Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan and Qatar. This study, which will contribute to the expansion of typology, is also contributory to the “Triple Deficit Hypothesis”.

scholarly journals Is Transportation Infrastructure Important to the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative? Empirical Evidence from the Selected Asian Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwang-Jing Yii ◽  
Kai-Ying Bee ◽  
Wei-Yong Cheam ◽  
Yee-Lee Chong ◽  
Ching-Mei Lee
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
One Belt One Road ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative is implemented to improve the linkage between China and its neighboring countries in terms of economic ties, connectivity, partnership, and security cooperation. The crucial challenge encountered in OBOR initiative is the different gauge standards from different countries in the development of railway along the Silk Road. Another issue arose from the regulation of education sector in the aspect of quality, cost, and efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, there is still lack of study on the transportation infrastructure and education towards the GDP in the selected Asian countries, especially for Central Asia. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of OBOR initiative and its importance towards economic growth by further investigating the determinants such as transportation infrastructure, education, labor, trade, and inflation rate. This study employs panel data analysis using the annual data from the period of 2000–2015. The selected Asian countries are divided into three regions, namely Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan), ASEAN (Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia), and East Asia (China, Mongolia). Besides, we use fixed effect model (FEM) to obtain the results based on the support of Hausman test and Poolability F-test. The findings reveal that transportation infrastructure possess a positive effect on GDP. Surprisingly, education is negatively related to GDP. With this, policy makers are suggested to encourage OBOR countries to expand and upgrade their system in terms of transportation infrastructure, human capital, culture, and education. In future studies, the advanced model is recommended to investigate the pre- and post-efficiency of OBOR initiative.

Exploring the Channels and Impact of Debt on Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-191
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Nisma Riffat Mehmood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Conditional Convergence ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Private And Public

The objective of this study is to analyse the effect of debt on economic growth as well as the channels, that is, investment, total factor productivity (TFP), interest rate and saving channel through which debt affects economic growth in South Asian countries. The study uses growth model based on conditional convergence and augments to include debt. Panel data of four South Asian countries from 1990 to 2013 at annual frequency are utilized and fixed effect model is used for estimation. The results of the study showed that inverted U-shaped relationship exists between debt and economic growth in South Asian countries. However, the most important and significant channel through which debt affects economic growth is private and public investment as well as TFP. Reducing debt accumulation alone will not rectify the problem unless the supplementary macroeconomic policies are made sound; therefore, there is a dire need to improve macroeconomic policies, good governance and elimination of structural distortions. JEL: C23, H6, O47

Dynamics of Twin Deficits, Ricardian Equivalence, and Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in South Asian Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Kinza Mumtaz
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Twin Deficits ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Private Savings

This study examines the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit, specifically twin deficits hypothesis, Ricardian equivalence hypothesis, and Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in South Asian countries. Results show that budget deficit and private savings investment balance do not affect current account deficit in the long run and rejects the Keynesian view of twin deficits hypothesis in South Asian countries. No causality exists between current account deficit and budget deficit in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in short run, while bidirectional causality exists in Bangladesh. Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is rejected in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, while it holds in India and Pakistan. Feldstein-Horioka puzzle exists in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, while it does not exist in India and Pakistan. Structural reforms in fiscal and trade sector are required to avoid emergence of twin deficits, while an active and effective role of government is required for sustainable economic growth.

Re-examining the twin deficit hypothesis for major South Asian economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-287
Author(s):  
Shruti Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to revisit the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and provide insights into the transmission mechanism connecting budget deficits and current account deficits for five major South Asian countries, namely, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan Sri Lanka and Nepal for the period 1985-2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a multivariate framework including real interest rate, real exchange rate and real gross domestic product to avoid the possibility of incorrect inferences caused by omission of relevant mediating variables. The long-run relationship and causality are investigated through the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach and Toda Yamamoto approach, respectively, for each individual country. The robustness of the results is assessed with the help of Westerlund’s cointegration test and group mean fully modified ordinary least squares (GM-FMOLS), group mean dynamic ordinary least square (GM-DOLS) and common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimators in the panel framework. Findings Both time series and panel evidences indicate long-run relationship between budget balance (BB) and current account balance (CAB) together with the mediating variables. The results indicate bi-directional causation between the two balances for India and Bangladesh, TDH for Pakistan and Sri Lanka and the reverse causation from CAB to BB for Nepal. Regarding the transmission mechanism, the results indicate the absence of the causal chain postulated by Mundell–Fleming, which predicts that BB causes CAB via interest rate and exchange rate. A CCEMG estimate of the import demand function reveals a positive government spending elasticity of imports suggesting that BB affects CAB by direct impact through demand. Originality/value This study augments the twin deficit literature on South Asian countries by providing insights into the transmission mechanism connecting the BB and CAB. Moreover, the study provides robust evidences on the TDH by using both time series and panel data techniques.

scholarly journals Remittances and Economic Growth Tie in Selected South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Md. Nezum Uddin ◽  
Mohammed Jashim Uddin ◽  
Md. Joynal Uddin ◽  
Monir Ahmmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
Panel Data Estimation Techniques ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Heated Debate

Remittances are regarded one of the foremost financial resources globally. Over the past century, in the developing economy, there is a heated debate on the sources of economic growth. The current paper attempts to analyze how economic growth is being impacted by remittance in five selected South Asian countries between the period 1975 and 2017. Estimated results from panel-data estimation techniques exhibit a positive relation between economic growth and remittance in these countries. The results from Granger-causality tests suggest that remittance plays a catalyst role to bring economic growth but economic growth doesn’t play any role to bring remittance while Dumitrescu Hurlin Causality tests found a bi-directional relationship. Important finding of the study is that remittance boost economic growth in South Asian region.

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