Modeling and prediction of expected informal growth in the Greater Cairo Region, Egypt

2021 ◽  
pp. 239980832110022
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Mohamed Badwi ◽  
Mohamed M El_Barmelgy ◽  
Ahmed Salah El_Din Ouf
Keyword(s):  
Growth Factors ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Informal Housing ◽  
Planning Models ◽  
Greater Cairo ◽  
New Methodologies ◽  
Developed Nations ◽  
Use Factors ◽  
Greater Cairo Region

Informal settlement growth is a vital challenge for developing countries, which requires monitoring and assessment by urban planners and city managers. Rural migration to urban areas leads to the unplanned expansion that grows within and beyond the city’s official boundaries. Although informal housing (IH) is growing fast, very little attention is oriented toward exploring tools and procedures for predicting its future expansion. Many studies have shown that informal housing is widespread and represents one of the most dominant features of urbanization in Egypt. Modern simulation and modeling technologies provide new methodologies to explore the complexity of urban growth. As a result, many planning models were developed and successfully used to simulate the spread of planned settlements in developed nations. However, the implementation of these models rarely achieves realistic simulation in the case of unplanned growth due to the developer’s field of study and the available resources. The main objective is to simulate the expected informal housing by modeling its causative land use factors in the Greater Cairo Region. This paper develops a predictive model that anticipates the spatial distribution of unplanned growth and where informal housing is likely to occur over a period based on known growth factors. The proposed Informal Housing Growth Model derives its principles from cellular automata and geographic information system technologies. This model uses a multi-criteria concept, including parameters and conditions related to informal growth, and can be adapted to other growth factors.

scholarly journals An Effective Framework for Monitoring and Measuring the Progress towards Sustainable Development in the Peri-Urban Areas of the Greater Cairo Region, Egypt

World ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Salem ◽  
Naoki Tsurusaki ◽  
Prasanna Divigalpitiya ◽  
Emad Kenawy
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Sustainability Indicators ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Urban Core ◽  
Greater Cairo ◽  
Wide Gap ◽  
Greater Cairo Region

Sustainable development (SD) has become a crucial challenge globally, particularly in developing countries and cities. SD of peri-urban areas (PUA) has been tackled by a limited number of studies, unlike that of urban areas or cities. The PUAs of Greater Cairo (GC) are no exception; no study had addressed the state of the PUAs in terms of SD. Thus, this study sought to measure and evaluate the progress towards the SD in the PUAs of Greater Cairo, Egypt. Thirteen indicators were extracted from selected documents of the competent international organizations to measure and evaluate the performance of SD in the study area. The study resulted in a variety of charts and maps to explain the progress of SD in each municipality of the PUAs and then classify these municipalities based on their performance in sustainability indicators. The results revealed a wide gap between PUAs’ municipalities and the urban core of Greater Cairo. These results can help urban planners and decision-makers to better recognize the underdeveloped areas on the Greater Cairo peripheries, and hence, to develop the appropriate strategies and policies to improve SD in such areas.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Driving Factors Causing Urban Expansion in the Peri-Urban Areas Using Logistic Regression: A Case Study of the Greater Cairo Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Salem ◽  
Naoki Tsurusaki ◽  
Prasanna Divigalpitiya
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Relative Operating Characteristic ◽  
Probability Map ◽  
Greater Cairo ◽  
Cell Window ◽  
Greater Cairo Region

The peri-urban area (PUA) of the Greater Cairo Region (GCR) in Egypt has witnessed a rapid urban expansion during the last few years. This urban expansion has led to the loss of wide, areas of agriculture lands and the annexation of many peripheral villages into the boundary of the GCR. This study analyzed the driving factors causing the urban expansion in the GCR during the period 2007–2017 using the logistic regression model (LRM). Eight independent variables were applied in this model: distance to the nearest urban center, distance to the nearest center of regional services, distance to water streams, distance to the main agglomeration, distance to industrial areas, distance to nearest road, number of urban cells within a 3 × 3 cell window and population density. The analysis was conducted using LOGISTICREG module in Terrset software. This research showed that the population density and distance to the nearest road have the highest regression coefficients, 0.540 and 0.114, respectively, and were the most significant driving factors of urban expansion during the last 10 years (2007–2017). Moreover, based on the results of the LRM, a probability map of urban expansion in the PUA was created, which shows that most urban expansion would be around the existing urban areas and near roads. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) value of 0.93 indicates that the probability map of urban expansion is valid.

The Floating Village: Fostering Social Capital in Chinese Migrant Settlements through Mobile Architecture

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Vincent Woon
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Floating Population ◽  
Construction Sites ◽  
Rural Migrants ◽  
Communal Area ◽  
Communal Space ◽  
Cultural Origins

<p>In the past two decades, China has realised one of the fastest and largest rural to urban migrations in the world. The country’s urban population has increased by 20% over the last 20 years due to rapid urbanisation and a drastic improvement in urban opportunities. It is projected that by the year 2020 China aims to house 60% of its population in urban areas, resulting in a population shift of over 100 million people. One of the major issues which is presented to rural migrants is the hukou system. Hukou acts as a domestic passport which prevents rural migrants from attaining social benefits within urban areas. This has created an underclass within China’s urban areas known as the “floating population”.  This thesis focuses on the architecture of the “floating villages” of China which accommodate this floating population. The floating village is an informal settlement of migrant workers which develops around construction sites. The village provides services such as food, entertainment, medical care and recycling to the construction workers., However, as a pseudo-urban typology accommodating many of the functions of a town, it lacks one important element: a focused communal area. The absence of deliberately designed a communal space has led to social tensions within the floating village due to the different cultural origins of the migrant workers. Migrant workers arrive in floating villages without knowledge of urban culture and with no communal support. Varying migrant accents, and traditions, alongside struggles with poverty, creates friction between workers.  This thesis proposes a temporary and portable architectural intervention within the floating village which fosters a positive community. The research of community design is explored through an architecturalisation of Dr Robert D. Putnam’s understanding of social capital.</p>

Exploring Just Sustainability in Re-Blocking Intervention in a Johannesburg Informal Settlement

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (5) ◽  
pp. 782-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumuyiwa Bayode Adegun
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Justice ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Environmental Problems ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Material Distribution ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Institutional Structures ◽  
Just Sustainability

Addressing intertwined socio-economic and environmental problems in informal urban areas underscores the need for just sustainability. The co-production of urban housing provides a useful domain to link issues related to sustainability with social and environmental justice. Using the example of an informal settlement re-blocking project, this paper shows how co-production as an approach might or might not promote principles ingrained in just sustainability. The study relied on data collected through semi-structured interviews with residents and key informants as well as transect walks within the settlement. The case shows that working towards just sustainability is not straight-forward. It demands efforts that navigate, with foresight rather than hindsight, the dynamics in multi-scalar contexts into which informal settlements are embedded. Social and institutional structures, processes and relationships producing and reproducing material distribution are crucial to entrenching the just sustainability praxis.

A model for government-community partnership in building sewage systems for urban areas: The experiences of the Orangi Pilot Project – Research and Training Institute (OPP-RTI), Karachi

2002 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 199-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Pilot Project ◽  
Community Partnership ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Fourth Component ◽  
And Training ◽  
Training Institute

Over 20 years the Orangi Pilot Project has been working to understand the problems of Orangi, a district of Karachi largely characterised by high-density informal settlement, and enable its residents to develop and implement solutions. Sanitation was identified as the major problem and a sewerage system was built. From this work was developed the “internal-external” concept for sanitation, which has 4 levels: sanitary latrines in houses; underground sewer in lane; neighbourhood collector sewer; and trunk sewer and treatment plant. The first three components are “internal” and can be undertaken by low-income communities; the “external” fourth component has to be funded and carried out by government or similar agency. Successful and unsuccessful attempts elsewhere to replicate this model have both confirmed the effectiveness and practicality of such community-based action and shown the – largely organisational – pitfalls that must be avoided.

scholarly journals Access to improved sanitation facilities in low-income informal settlements of East African cities

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Okurut ◽  
R. N. Kulabako ◽  
P. Abbott ◽  
J. M. Adogo ◽  
J. Chenoweth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
East African ◽  
Basic Sanitation ◽  
Improved Sanitation ◽  
Joint Monitoring ◽  
Sub Saharan

Throughout Africa, the population in urban areas is increasing rapidly, often exceeding the capacity and the resources of the cities and towns to accommodate the people. In sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of urban dwellers live in informal settlements served by inadequate sanitation facilities. These settlements present unique challenges to the provision of sustainable and hygienic sanitation, and there is insufficient information on access to improved facilities. This paper reports findings of a study undertaken in low-income informal settlements using a mixed methods approach to assess access to sanitation and identify the barriers to household uptake of improved sanitation facilities. More than half of the respondents (59.7%) reported using sanitation facilities that are included in the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme definition of improved sanitation. However, a high proportion of these facilities did not provide access to basic sanitation. Less than 5% of all the respondents did not report problems related to sustainable access to basic sanitation. The findings highlight the urgent need to develop specific and strategic interventions for each low-income informal settlement, to upscale the sustainable access and use of improved sanitation in urban centres.

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