Inpatient Versus Outpatient Hypomethylating Agent Induction for AML As a Predictor for Survival

Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 27-28
Author(s):  
Chetan Jeurkar ◽  
Benjamin E Leiby ◽  
Joshua Banks ◽  
Margaret Kasner ◽  
Gina Keiffer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Tumor Lysis ◽  
Palliative Approach ◽  
Co Morbidity ◽  
Risk Patients

Introduction The hypomethylating agents (HMA) decitabine (dec) and azacytidine (aza) are used in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) for induction therapy in patients with either newly diagnosed or relapsed disease and who are above the age of 60 or for those who would not tolerate intensive induction chemotherapy. As a result, HMA have been widely used at our institution, on both inpatient (IP) and outpatient (OP) services. The decision to administer IP-HMA vs OP-HMA is complex, but IP-HMA is recommended at our institution for neutropenic infections, debility, or risk of tumor lysis. The prognostic significance of this decision, if any, has not been widely explored. We hypothesized that because patients who receive their first cycle of HMA as an IP were at higher risk for complications, they would have a worse 100-day survival than their OP counterparts. Methods This was a retrospective observational study of patients treated at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital from January 2016-January 2020. Inclusion criteria were patients who had a diagnosis of AML, were above the age of 18 when treated, were treated with an HMA during the course of their disease, and were treated at our institution where electronic medical records (EMR) were complete and readily accessible. Exclusion criteria were patients who had died as a direct result of their hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and whose records were incomplete or who had been treated at an outside institution. Logistic regression models were used to analyze data. Survival was calculated from day one of the first cycle of HMA received. Results A total of 68 patients were evaluated. Twenty-nine patients received IP-HMA while 39 received OP-HMA. Mean overall survival from HMA initiation was 252 days (95% CI 164-340) in the IP-HMA group and 430 days (95% CI 269-591) in the OP-HMA group. Mean 100-day survival in the IP-HMA group was 78 days (95% CI 65-91) and 93 days (95% CI 87-99) in the OP-HMA group. The average age at HMA initiation in the IP group was 69 (95% CI 64-74) and was 66 (95% CI 62-70) in the OP group. Average Charlson co-morbidity index was 5.5 (95% CI 5.0-6.0) in the IP group and 5.6 (95% CI 5.0-6.2) in the OP group. In the IP group, there were 1 low risk, 7 intermediate risk, and 21 high risk patients according to the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) risk stratification scale. In the OP group, there were 3 low risk, 8 intermediate risk, and 28 high risk patients. Nineteen of the 29 patients in the IP group and 11 of the 39 patients in the OP group received venetoclax in addition to an HMA as part of their therapy. Using a logistic regression model, location of HMA induction was found to have a significant effect on 100-day survival with IP induction being associated with worse survival (odds ratio=3.94; p=0.028) (see figure 1). Co-variates for this model included age at HMA initiation as this was the only confounder found in Wilcoxon rank sum testing to be significant. Other confounders which were tested but not included in logistic regression due to non-significance included race, gender, ELN risk, and Charlson co-morbidity indices. Discussion In this retrospective study, we found that IP-HMA induction was associated with a worse 100 day and overall survival than its OP counterpart. Though we found that co-morbidity indices and ELN risk scores were similar between the two groups, we postulate the reason the IP group had a significantly worse 100 day survival was that being admitted for neutropenic fever, risk of tumor lysis, etc. inherently put them at higher risk for complications like septic shock and hypoxic respiratory failure. Additionally, we found that patients who received HMA as an IP were far more likely to die shortly after their induction, within 100 days and often within 20 days. This would indicate they were potentially poor candidates for chemotherapy and that a palliative approach may have been more appropriate.. This study describes the survival differences seen in patients receiving IP-HMA versus OP-HMA. Knowledge of these results could spawn a more palliative approach for future patients requiring IP-HMA induction. Figure Disclosures Kasner: Otsuka Pharmaceutical: Research Funding; Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Palmisiano:AbbVie: Research Funding; Genentech: Research Funding.

Early Mortality in Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia May Be Higher Than Previously Reported.

Blood ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (22) ◽  
pp. 1015-1015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ash A Alizadeh ◽  
James S. McClellan ◽  
Jason R. Gotlib ◽  
Steven Coutre ◽  
Ravindra Majeti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Early Death ◽  
Promyelocytic Leukemia ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Risk Patients

Abstract Abstract 1015 Poster Board I-37 Background: Early mortality, mostly from hemorrhagic complications, occurs in less than 10% of patients currently treated in clinical trials for acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). However, data about the proportion of patients developing such complications prior to clinical trial enrollment are scarce in the literature (Sanz M, et al Blood 2009). Approximately 5% of newly diagnosed patients with APL have been reported not to be eligible for participation in clinical trials due to very poor clinical condition, and their outcome has never been reported. However, enrollment on clinical trials may be difficult in specific clinical situations, such as after hours/weekend admissions and/or emergent requirement for therapy. This study reports the incidence, time of occurrence and clinical features of APL patients with a focus on early mortality. Methods: 150 consecutive APL patients treated at Stanford University between 8/1986 and 7/2009 were identified. Thirteen patients were excluded for lack of appropriate clinical information. Clinical features of patients with APL were analyzed for factors that might be relate to prognosis, including age, gender, white blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, PTT, and INR. Continuous variables were compared with the t-test and categorical variables by Fisher's exact test or X-square statistic. The Kaplan–Meier method was applied to assess overall survival time. Results: Of the 137 patients included in this analysis, the median age at diagnosis was 45 (1-93) years and 78 (57%) were females. Using the PETHEMA criteria, there were 37, 46 and 20 patients with high-, intermediate- and low-risk disease (34 patients could not be classified based on partial/missing data). With a median follow-up time of 748 (0-6,235) days for the entire cohort, 52 (38%) have died. 19 (14%) and 11 (8%) of these patients died within 7 and 3 days of presentation, respectively. Patients with high-risk features had a 13% and 24% chance of dying with 3 and 7 days of presentation, respectively, with significantly inferior outcomes (p=0.045) when compared to those with intermediate-risk patients (6% and 13%) and low-risk disease (5% and 5%). Patients with unknown risk category faired similarly to low-risk patients. The most common cause of early mortality in these 19 patients was intracranial hemorrhage (n=11). Patients with early death (ED) (either <=3 or <=7 days) tended to be older than APL patients with non-early deaths (>7d), or APL patients alive as of their last follow-up (median age 54 years vs. 50 years vs. 39 years), and were more likely to have higher risk disease, though coagulopathy appeared not significantly different amongst the groups. Median fibrinogen, PTT and INR for each individual group are presented on Table 1. The 3-year overall survival (% +/- SE) of the low, intermediate, and high risk patients was 90+/-7, 74+/-7, and 64+/-8, respectively, though early mortality (death within 7 days) was a major determinant of this stratification (p=0.045). Conclusions: Risk of early death in APL patients appears to be higher than previously reported in clinical trials, where trial registration may exclude patients requiring urgent therapeutic interventions. In this cohort, 25% and 13% patients with high- and intermediate-risk APL died within 7 days of presentation, respectively. Risk group stratification was very predictive of risk of early death. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Renal Cell Carcinoma Recurrence After Nephrectomy for Localized Disease: Predicting Survival From Time of Recurrence

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (19) ◽  
pp. 3101-3106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott E. Eggener ◽  
Ofer Yossepowitch ◽  
Joseph A. Pettus ◽  
Mark E. Snyder ◽  
Robert J. Motzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Renal Cell ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Median Survival Time ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Localized Disease

Purpose Prognostic factors for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) are well established. However, the risk profile is unknown for patients with recurrent RCC after a nephrectomy for localized disease. Patients and Methods From January 1989 to July 2005, we identified patients with localized RCC treated by nephrectomy who subsequently developed recurrent disease. We applied a validated prognostic scoring system previously developed for patients with metastatic RCC. Each patient was given a total risk score of 0 to 5, with one point for each of five prognostic variables (recurrence < 12 months after nephrectomy, serum calcium > 10 mg/dL, hemoglobin < lower limit of normal, lactate dehydrogenase > 1.5× upper limit of normal, and Karnofsky performance status < 80%). Patients were categorized into low- (score = 0), intermediate- (score = 1 to 2), and high-risk subgroups (score = 3 to 5). Results Our final cohort included 118 patients, with a median survival time of 21 months from the time of recurrence. Median follow-up time for survivors was 27 months. Overall survival was strongly associated with risk group category (P < .0001). Low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk criteria were fulfilled in 34%, 50%, and 16% of patients, respectively. Median survival time for low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients was 76, 25, and 6 months, respectively. Two-year overall survival rates for low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients were 88% (95% CI, 77% to 99%), 51% (95% CI, 37% to 65%), and 11% (95% CI, 0% to 24%), respectively. Conclusion At disease recurrence after nephrectomy for localized disease, a scoring system based on objective clinical and laboratory data provides meaningful risk stratification for both patient counseling and clinical trial entry.

scholarly journals Low Von Willebrand Factor: Cut-Off Value for Diagnosis and Risk Score to Predict Bleeding Incidence

Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 18-19
Author(s):  
Ferdows Atiq ◽  
Esmee Wuijster ◽  
Moniek P.M. de Maat ◽  
Marieke J.H.A. Kruip ◽  
Marjon H. Cnossen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Spontaneous Bleeding ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Surgical Bleeding

Introduction Although large studies have recently provided valuable insights on the diagnosis, bleeding phenotype, and treatment outcomes of VWD patients, these aspects remain poorly understood in individuals with low VWF. Firstly, there is no clear evidence which cut-off value should be used to diagnose low VWF. Although 0.50 IU/mL is the most recommended cut-off value, some centers use the lower limit of normal (0.60 IU/mL). Secondly, the incidence of post-surgical bleeding, postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) and traumatic- or spontaneous bleeding after diagnosis of low VWF are still unknown. Lastly, it is hard to predict which individuals with low VWF have an increased bleeding risk. Therefore, we investigated the bleeding phenotype of individuals with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL, and the incidence of post-surgical bleeding, PPH and traumatic- and spontaneous bleeding after their initial diagnosis of "low VWF". Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study from January 2007 to November 2019 at the Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam. All patients evaluated for the presence of a bleeding disorder with VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) and/or VWF activity (VWF:Act) and/or VWF collagen binding (VWF:CB) levels between 0.31-0.60 IU/mL, were included. Patients with VWF:Ag and/or VWF:Act and/or VWF:CB ≤0.30 IU/mL, acquired VWD and those with a concomitant bleeding disorder were excluded. For each individual we collected data from electronic patient files on baseline characteristics, reason for referral, family history of bleeding disorders, ISTH-BAT and laboratory measurements at diagnosis. Retrospective follow-up started from initial date of low VWF diagnosis through November 2019, during which we collected data on surgical procedures, pregnancies, and incidence of spontaneous- and traumatic bleeding. Results We included 439 patients; 269 patients with historically lowest VWF levels 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 170 patients 0.51-0.60 IU/mL. Mean age at diagnosis was 28.8 ±17.7 years. Most patients were female (74.3%) and had blood group O (76.4%, Table 1). The bleeding score (BS) was similar in patients with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL (3.7 ±3.0) and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL (4.0 ±2.9, p=0.209, Table 1). During the mean follow-up period of 6.3 ±3.7 years, 259 surgical procedures were performed in 146 patients, 81 deliveries in 56 women, and 109 spontaneous- or traumatic bleedings in 71 patients. The incidence of post-surgical bleeding was 7 (2.7%) during follow-up, whereas 8 deliveries (10%) were complicated by PPH. Overall, 65 out of 439 patients (14.8%) had a bleeding episode requiring treatment during follow-up, resulting in an incidence of bleeding requiring treatment of 0.5 ±1.9 per patient per decade. No difference was found in the incidence of bleeding requiring treatment between patients with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL (Figure 2A, p=0.154). We found that referral for a personal bleeding diathesis, a younger age at diagnosis and an abnormal BS at diagnosis were strong and independent risk factors for bleeding requiring treatment during follow-up, respectively HR=2.32 (95%CI: 1.16-4.63), HR=1.18 (95%CI: 1.01-1.38) and HR=1.77 (95%CI: 1.04-3.01). These risk factors were combined to develop a risk score to identify low VWF patients with an increased risk for bleeding requiring treatment (Figure 2B). The risk score performed excellent to differentiate in bleeding requiring treatment between low risk, intermediate risk and high risk patients (p&lt;0.001, Figure 2C). The number of patients with bleeding requiring treatment was 8/126 (6.3%) in patients with low risk, 18/143 (12.6%) in intermediate risk and 39/170 (22.9%) in high risk patients (p&lt;0.001). Likewise, the incidence of bleeding requiring treatment per patient per decade was 0.22 ±1.08 in low risk, 0.28 ±1.25 in intermediate risk and 0.87 ±2.61 in high risk patients (p=0.004, Figure 2D). Conclusion To conclude, there is no difference in the bleeding phenotype of individuals with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL. Therefore, the cut-off value to diagnose low VWF should be set at 0.60 IU/mL. Furthermore, the risk score developed in the current study may assist to identify low VWF patients with low, intermediate and high risk for future bleeding. Disclosures Atiq: SOBI: Other: travel grant; CSL Behring: Research Funding. Kruip:Boehringer Ingelheim: Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding; Bayer: Research Funding; Daiichi Sankyo: Research Funding; SOBI: Research Funding; Bayer: Speakers Bureau. Cnossen:Takeda: Research Funding; Shire: Research Funding; Baxter: Research Funding; Bayer: Research Funding; Sobi: Research Funding; CSL behring: Research Funding; Nordic Pharma: Research Funding; Novo Nordisk: Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding. Leebeek:CSL Behring: Research Funding; Shire/Takeda: Research Funding; Uniqure: Consultancy; Shire/Takeda: Consultancy; Novo Nordisk: Consultancy; SOBI: Other: Travel grant; Roche: Other: DSMB member for a study.

Gastrointestinal Acuity Score (GAS): A Comprehensive Risk Score Incorporating Histologic Grade and Clinical Factors to Predict Need for Second Line Therapy, Non-Relapse Mortality, and Overall Survival in Lower Gastrointestinal Graft Vs. Host Disease

Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 3128-3128
Author(s):  
Jin S. Im ◽  
Rima M Saliba ◽  
Susan C Abraham ◽  
Asif Rashid ◽  
William Ross ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Second Line ◽  
Second Line Therapy ◽  
Cart Analysis ◽  
Line Therapy ◽  
Risk Patients

Abstract Lower Gastrointestinal Graft versus Host Disease (GI GVHD) is a major cause for GVHD related non-relapsed mortality (NRM). High dose corticosteroid is the initial therapy for suspected lower GI GVHD, and additional therapy is often required for steroid refractory cases. The identification of high-risk patients is critical as timely intensification of treatment through early institution of second line therapy improves outcomes. To develop a reliable lower GI GVHD risk scoring system, Gastrointestinal Acuity Score (GAS), we evaluated 210 consecutive patients who underwent endoscopic biopsy for suspected lower GI GVHD within 6 months from the transplant from 2009 to 2012 at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. We first identified 5 significant prognostic factors that accounted for the increased NRM in lower GI GVHD using univariate analysis: histologic grade, clinical stage, age, multi-organ GVHD, and donor type (Table 1). Gender, donor cell type, conditioning regimen (myeloablative vs non-myeloablative), time of diagnosis, disease status did not significantly influence NRM. Next, we performed multivariate Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis that utilizes sequential binary decision nodes to categorize 197 patients into subgroups according to their risk profile and outcome (Figure 1). The decision tree identified 7 subgroups starting with the presence of multi-organ GVHD as the first major decision node. This was followed by clinical stage 3/4, Age > 40 years, histology grade 3/4, and histology grade 1. We then consolidated subgroups with comparable risk profiles into low, intermediate, and high NRM risk groups (Figure 1). The 3 NRM risk groups correlated with day 28 response, the need for second line therapy and overall survival (Figure 2). The complete response rates at day 28 from the initiation of steroid therapy were significantly lower in the high (15%, p<0.001) and intermediate (43%, p=0.003) risk group compared to the low-risk group (70%). Accordingly, the high-risk patients were 4.3 (p < 0.001) and 1.6 (p=0.02) folds more likely to need second line therapy compared to low and intermediate risk patients, respectively. The intermediate risk patients were 2.7 (p=0.02) folds more likely to need second line therapy compared to the low risk group. In addition, the high-risk group was associated with the highest NRM (HR 5.4, p<0.001), followed by the intermediate risk (HR 3.8, p<0.001) compared to the low risk group. This translated into worse overall survival at 1 year for the high-risk patients. Lastly, there was a trend towards a lower chronic GVHD rate in the low risk group (25%, HR=0.6, p 0.06) compared to the high and intermediate risk groups (37%). In conclusion, we developed a novel risk scoring system, Gastrointestinal Acuity Score (GAS), incorporating histologic grades and clinical factors through multivariate CART analysis, and demonstrated that GAS predicts both early outcomes (day 28 CR rate and need for second line therapy) and late outcomes (NRM and overall survival) in patients with lower GI GVHD. Once prospectively validated in a larger cohort of lower GI GVHD patients, it will be of great use for clinicians with limited access to GVHD biomarker analysis in making treatment decisions as our new risk scoring system utilizes readily available variables. Figure 1. Univariate Analysis of risk factors for NRM at 1 year in Lower GI GVHD Figure 1. Univariate Analysis of risk factors for NRM at 1 year in Lower GI GVHD Figure 2. CART Analysis: Decision Tree for Risk Assessment Figure 2. CART Analysis: Decision Tree for Risk Assessment Figure 3. Need for second line therapy, NRM and OS Figure 3. Need for second line therapy, NRM and OS Disclosures Alousi: Therakos, Inc: Research Funding.

Prediction of Molecular Response of Chronic Phase CML Patients by the EUTOS Score: Results of the Randomized CML-Study IV,

Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 3762-3762
Author(s):  
Susanne Saussele ◽  
Michael Lauseker ◽  
Verena Hoffmann ◽  
Ulrike Proetel ◽  
Benjamin Hanfstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Board Of Directors ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Molecular Response ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Advisory Committees ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Eutos Score

Abstract Abstract 3762 Introduction: The EUTOS Score was developed and validated as a prognostic tool for the achievement of complete cytogenetic response (CCR) at 18 months for chronic phase (CP) CML patients under imatinib therapy. The score identifies high-risk patients not reaching CCR at 18 months with a positive predictive value of 34% and a specificity of 92% using only two variables, peripheral blood basophils and spleen size at diagnosis (Hasford et al. Blood 2011). We sought to evaluate the clinical impact of the EUTOS score to predict molecular response. Therefore, we analyzed the EUTOS score with patients from the German CML-Study IV, a randomized 5-arm trial (imatinib 400 mg vs. imatinib 800 mg vs. imatinib in combination with interferon alpha vs. imatinib in combination with araC vs. imatinib after interferon failure). Results: From July 2002 to December 2010, 1,502 patients with BCR-ABL positive CML in CP were randomized. 129 patients with imatinib after interferon alpha and 36 other patients had to be excluded (14 due to incorrect randomization or withdrawal of consent, 22 with missing baseline information). 1,337 patients were evaluable for overall and progression-free survival (OS and PFS), 1,252 for molecular responses. 749 of these patients were part of the score development sample. Therefore cytogenetic analyses are not described here. By EURO score, 36% of patients (n=475) were low risk, 51% (n=681) intermediate risk, and 12% (n=167) high risk. The EUTOS score was low risk in 88% (n=1163) and high risk in 12% (n=160). The high-risk patients differed between the two scores: EUTOS high-risk patients were classified according to EURO score in 12% as low (n=19), in 45% as intermediate (n=68) and in 43% as high risk (n=73). Patients with high, intermediate, and low risk EURO score achieved MMR in 22, 16, and 13 months and CMR4 (BCR-ABL <=0.01%) in 59, 41, and 34 months. P-values for low vs. intermediate risk groups were borderline only (0.03 for MMR and 0.04 for CMR4), whereas p-values for high vs. low/intermediate risk groups were for both molecular response levels <0.001. At 12 months the proportion of patients in MMR was 38%, 46%, 54% for high, intermediate, and low risk patients, respectively. Similar results were observed with the Sokal score. Patients with high risk EUTOS score achieved deep molecular responses (MMR and CMR4) significantly later than patients with low risk EUTOS score (MMR: median 21.0 vs. 14.8 months, p<0.001, Fig. 1a; CMR4: median 60.6 vs. 37.2 months, p<0.001, Fig. 1b). The proportions of patients achieving MMR at 12 months were significantly lower in the EUTOS high-risk group than in the EUTOS low-risk group (30.8% vs. 50.6%, p<0.001). OS after 5 years was 85% for high and 91% for low risk patients (p=n.s.), PFS was 85% and 90%, respectively. Conclusions: The EUTOS score clearly separates CML patients also according to MMR and CMR4 (MR4). The new EUTOS score should be used in future trials with tyrosine kinase inhibitors in CML. Disclosures: Neubauer: Novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding; Roche: Research Funding. Kneba:Hoffmann La Roche: Honoraria. Schnittger:MLL Munich Leukemia Laboratory: Employment, Equity Ownership. Hochhaus:Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Pfizer: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Ariad: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. German CML Study Group:Deutsche Krebshilfe: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; BMBF: Research Funding; EU: Research Funding; Roche: Research Funding; Essex: Research Funding.

scholarly journals Immune Reconstitution-Based Score for Risk Stratification of Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease Patients

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Serpenti ◽  
Francesca Lorentino ◽  
Sarah Marktel ◽  
Raffaella Milani ◽  
Carlo Messina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Immune Reconstitution ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Multivariate Model ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients

IntroductionAllogeneic stem cell transplantation survivors are at a relevant risk of developing chronic GvHD (cGvHD), which importantly affects quality of life and increases morbidity and mortality. Early identification of patients at risk of cGvHD-related morbidity could represent a relevant tool to tailor preventive strategies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic power of immune reconstitution (IR) at cGvHD onset through an IR-based score.MethodsWe analyzed data from 411 adult patients consecutively transplanted between January 2011 and December 2016 at our Institution: 151 patients developed cGvHD (median follow-up 4 years). A first set of 111 consecutive patients with cGvHD entered the test cohort while an additional consecutive 40 patients represented the validation cohort. A Cox multivariate model for OS (overall survival) in patients with cGvHD of any severity allowed the identification of six variables independently predicting OS and TRM (transplant-related mortality). A formula for a prognostic risk index using the β coefficients derived from the model was designed. Each patient was assigned a score defining three groups of risk (low, intermediate, and high).ResultsOur multivariate model defined the variables independently predicting OS at cGvHD onset: CD4+ &gt;233 cells/mm3, NK &lt;115 cells/mm3, IgA &lt;0.43g/L, IgM &lt;0.45g/L, Karnofsky PS &lt;80%, platelets &lt;100x103/mm3. Low-risk patients were defined as having a score ≤3.09, intermediate-risk patients &gt;3.09 and ≤6.9, and high-risk patients &gt;6.9. By ROC analysis, we identified a cut-off of 6.310 for both TRM and overall mortality.In the training cohort, the 6-year OS and TRM from cGvHD occurrence were 85% (95% CI, 70-92) and 13% (95% CI, 5-25) for low-risk, 64% (95% CI, 44-89) and 30% (95% CI, 15-47) for intermediate-risk, 26% (95% CI, 10-47), and 42% (95% CI, 19-63) for high-risk patients (OS p&lt;0.0001; TRM p = 0.015).The validation cohort confirmed the model with a 6-year OS and TRM of 83% (95% CI, 48-96) and 8% (95% CI, 1-32) for low-risk, 78% (95% CI, 37-94) and 11% (95% CI, 1-41) for intermediate-risk, 37% (95% CI, 17-58), and 63% (95% CI, 36-81) for high-risk patients (OS p = 0.0075; TRM p = 0.0009).ConclusionsIR score at diagnosis of cGvHD predicts GvHD severity and overall survival. IR score may contribute to the risk stratification of patients. If confirmed in a larger and multicenter-based study, IR score could be adopted to identify patients at high risk and modulate cGvHD treatments accordingly in the context of clinical trial.

scholarly journals A Novel Autophagy-Related lncRNA Gene Signature to Improve the Prognosis of Patients with Melanoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Ding ◽  
Tian Li ◽  
Min Li ◽  
Tuersong Tayier ◽  
MeiLin Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Clinical Information ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽  
Positive Regulation ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Cox Analysis

Abstract Background: Autophagy and long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been the focus of research on the pathogenesis of melanoma. However, the autophagy network of lncRNAs in melanoma has not been reported. The purpose of this study was to investigate the lncRNA prognostic markers related to melanoma autophagy and predict the prognosis of patients with melanoma.Methods: We downloaded RNA-sequencing data and clinical information of melanoma from The Cancer Genome Atlas. The co-expression of autophagy-related genes (ARGs) and lncRNAs was analyzed. The risk model of autophagy-related lncRNAs was established by univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses, and the best prognostic index was evaluated combined with clinical data. Finally, gene set enrichment analysis was performed on patients in the high- and low-risk groups.Results: According to the results of the univariate COX analysis, only the overexpression of LINC00520 was associated with poor overall survival, unlike HLA-DQB1-AS1, USP30-AS1, AL645929, AL365361, LINC00324, and AC055822. The results of the multivariate COX analysis showed that the overall survival of patients in the high-risk group was shorter than that recorded in the low-risk group (p<0.001). Moreover, in the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk model we constructed, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.734, while the AUC of T and N was 0.707 and 0.658, respectively. The Gene Ontology was mainly enriched with the positive regulation of autophagy and the activation of the immune system. The results of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment were mostly related to autophagy, immunity, and melanin metabolism.Conclusion: The positive regulation of autophagy may slow the transition from low-risk patients to high-risk patients in melanoma. Furthermore, compared with clinical information, the autophagy-related lncRNAs risk model may better predict the prognosis of patients with melanoma and provide new treatment ideas.

A Novel Risk Classification Model Predicts Overall Survival and Locoregional Surgery Benefit in Colorectal Patients with Distant Metastasis at the Initial Diagnosis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo Chen ◽  
Tian-en Li ◽  
Pei-zhun Du ◽  
Junjie Pan ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Distant Metastasis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Intermediate Risk

Abstract Background and aims: In this research, we aimed to construct a risk classification model to predict overall survival (OS) and locoregional surgery benefit in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with distant metastasis.Methods: We selected a cohort consisting of 12741 CRC patients diagnosed with distant metastasis between 2010 and 2014, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly assigned into training group and validation group at the ratio of 2:1. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to screen independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed and assessed by the Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. A novel risk classification model was further established based on the nomogram.Results: Ultimately 12 independent risk factors including race, age, marriage, tumor site, tumor size, grade, T stage, N stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis and liver metastasis were identified and adopted in the nomogram. The C-indexes of training and validation groups were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.81) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78), respectively. The risk classification model stratified patients into three risk groups (low-, intermediate- and high-risk) with divergent median OS (low-risk: 36.0 months, 95% CI 34.1-37.9; intermediate-risk: 18.0 months, 95% CI 17.4-18.6; high-risk: 6.0 months, 95% CI 5.3-6.7). Locoregional therapies including surgery and radiotherapy could prognostically benefit patients in the low-risk group (surgery: hazard ratio [HR] 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.71; radiotherapy: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.98) and intermediate risk group (surgery: HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.54-0.68; radiotherapy: HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.95), but not in the high-risk group (surgery: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82-1.29; radiotherapy: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.81-1.31). And all risk groups could benefit from systemic therapy (low-risk: HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.80; intermediate-risk: HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.47-0.54; high-risk: HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.53).Conclusion: A novel risk classification model predicting prognosis and locoregional surgery benefit of CRC patients with distant metastasis was established and validated. This predictive model could be further utilized by physicians and be of great significance for medical practice.

P3609Temporal trends of the management and outcomes of patients after myocardial infarction according to the risk for recurrent cardiovascular events

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Grinberg ◽  
T Bental ◽  
Y Hammer ◽  
A R Assali ◽  
H Vaknin-Assa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients

Abstract Background Following Myocardial Infarction (MI), patients are at increased risk for recurrent cardiovascular events, particularly during the immediate period. Yet some patients are at higher risk than others, owing to their clinical characteristics and comorbidities, these high-risk patients are less often treated with guideline-recommended therapies. Aim To examine temporal trends in treatment and outcomes of patients with MI according to the TIMI risk score for secondary prevention (TRS2°P), a recently validated risk stratification tool. Methods A retrospective cohort study of patients with an acute MI, who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention and were discharged alive between 2004–2016. Temporal trends were examined in the early (2004–2010) and late (2011–2016) time-periods. Patients were stratified by the TRS2°P to a low (≤1), intermediate (2) or high-risk group (≥3). Clinical outcomes included 30-day MACE (death, MI, target vessel revascularization, coronary artery bypass grafting, unstable angina or stroke) and 1-year mortality. Results Among 4921 patients, 31% were low-risk, 27% intermediate-risk and 42% high-risk. Compared to low and intermediate-risk patients, high-risk patients were older, more commonly female, and had more comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and chronic kidney disease. They presented more often with non ST elevation MI and 3-vessel disease. High-risk patients were less likely to receive drug eluting stents and potent anti-platelet drugs, among other guideline-recommended therapies. Evidently, they experienced higher 30-day MACE (8.1% vs. 3.9% and 2.1% in intermediate and low-risk, respectively, P<0.001) and 1-year mortality (10.4% vs. 3.9% and 1.1% in intermediate and low-risk, respectively, P<0.001). During time, comparing the early to the late-period, the use of potent antiplatelets and statins increased among the entire cohort (P<0.001). However, only the high-risk group demonstrated a significantly lower 30-day MACE (P=0.001). During time, there were no differences in 1-year mortality rate among all risk categories. Temporal trends in 30-day MACE by TRS2°P Conclusion Despite a better application of guideline-recommended therapies, high-risk patients after MI are still relatively undertreated. Nevertheless, they demonstrated the most notable improvement in outcomes over time.

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