scholarly journals Outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with CLL: a multicenter international experience

Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (10) ◽  
pp. 1134-1143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony R. Mato ◽  
Lindsey E. Roeker ◽  
Nicole Lamanna ◽  
John N. Allan ◽  
Lori Leslie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Kinase Inhibitors ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
Lymphocytic Leukemia ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Watch And Wait ◽  
Risk Of Death

Abstract Given advanced age, comorbidities, and immune dysfunction, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients may be at particularly high risk of infection and poor outcomes related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Robust analysis of outcomes for CLL patients, particularly examining effects of baseline characteristics and CLL-directed therapy, is critical to optimally manage CLL patients through this evolving pandemic. CLL patients diagnosed with symptomatic COVID-19 across 43 international centers (n = 198) were included. Hospital admission occurred in 90%. Median age at COVID-19 diagnosis was 70.5 years. Median Cumulative Illness Rating Scale score was 8 (range, 4-32). Thirty-nine percent were treatment naive (“watch and wait”), while 61% had received ≥1 CLL-directed therapy (median, 2; range, 1-8). Ninety patients (45%) were receiving active CLL therapy at COVID-19 diagnosis, most commonly Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors (BTKi’s; n = 68/90 [76%]). At a median follow-up of 16 days, the overall case fatality rate was 33%, though 25% remain admitted. Watch-and-wait and treated cohorts had similar rates of admission (89% vs 90%), intensive care unit admission (35% vs 36%), intubation (33% vs 25%), and mortality (37% vs 32%). CLL-directed treatment with BTKi’s at COVID-19 diagnosis did not impact survival (case fatality rate, 34% vs 35%), though the BTKi was held during the COVID-19 course for most patients. These data suggest that the subgroup of CLL patients admitted with COVID-19, regardless of disease phase or treatment status, are at high risk of death. Future epidemiologic studies are needed to assess severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection risk, these data should be validated independently, and randomized studies of BTKi’s in COVID-19 are needed to provide definitive evidence of benefit.

scholarly journals A machine-learning parsimonious multivariable predictive model of mortality risk in patients with Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Murri ◽  
Jacopo Lenkowicz ◽  
Carlotta Masciocchi ◽  
Chiara Iacomini ◽  
Massimo Fantoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
C Reactive Protein ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Reactive Protein

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic is impressively challenging the healthcare system. Several prognostic models have been validated but few of them are implemented in daily practice. The objective of the study was to validate a machine-learning risk prediction model using easy-to-obtain parameters to help to identify patients with COVID-19 who are at higher risk of death. The training cohort included all patients admitted to Fondazione Policlinico Gemelli with COVID-19 from March 5, 2020, to November 5, 2020. Afterward, the model was tested on all patients admitted to the same hospital with COVID-19 from November 6, 2020, to February 5, 2021. The primary outcome was in-hospital case-fatality risk. The out-of-sample performance of the model was estimated from the training set in terms of Area under the Receiving Operator Curve (AUROC) and classification matrix statistics by averaging the results of fivefold cross validation repeated 3-times and comparing the results with those obtained on the test set. An explanation analysis of the model, based on the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), is also presented. To assess the subsequent time evolution, the change in paO2/FiO2 (P/F) at 48 h after the baseline measurement was plotted against its baseline value. Among the 921 patients included in the training cohort, 120 died (13%). Variables selected for the model were age, platelet count, SpO2, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, neutrophil count, and sodium. The results of the fivefold cross-validation repeated 3-times gave AUROC of 0.87, and statistics of the classification matrix to the Youden index as follows: sensitivity 0.840, specificity 0.774, negative predictive value 0.971. Then, the model was tested on a new population (n = 1463) in which the case-fatality rate was 22.6%. The test model showed AUROC 0.818, sensitivity 0.813, specificity 0.650, negative predictive value 0.922. Considering the first quartile of the predicted risk score (low-risk score group), the case-fatality rate was 1.6%, 17.8% in the second and third quartile (high-risk score group) and 53.5% in the fourth quartile (very high-risk score group). The three risk score groups showed good discrimination for the P/F value at admission, and a positive correlation was found for the low-risk class to P/F at 48 h after admission (adjusted R-squared = 0.48). We developed a predictive model of death for people with SARS-CoV-2 infection by including only easy-to-obtain variables (abnormal blood count, BUN, C-reactive protein, sodium and lower SpO2). It demonstrated good accuracy and high power of discrimination. The simplicity of the model makes the risk prediction applicable for patients in the Emergency Department, or during hospitalization. Although it is reasonable to assume that the model is also applicable in not-hospitalized persons, only appropriate studies can assess the accuracy of the model also for persons at home.

Morbidity, mortality and spatial distribution of meningococcal disease, 1974–2007

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (11) ◽  
pp. 1631-1640 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. HOWITZ ◽  
L. LAMBERTSEN ◽  
J. B. SIMONSEN ◽  
J. J. CHRISTENSEN ◽  
K. MØLBAK
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Meningococcal Disease ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
High Age

SUMMARYTo identify determinants for mortality and sequelae and to analyse the spatial distribution of meningococcal disease, we linked four national Danish registries. In the period 1974–2007, 5924 cases of meningococcal disease were registered. Our analysis confirms known risk factors for a fatal meningococcal disease outcome, i.e. septicaemia and high age (>50 years). The overall case-fatality rate was 7·6%; two phenotypes were found to be associated with increased risk of death; C:2a:P1.2,5 and B:15:P1.7,16. B:15:P1.7,16 was also associated with excess risk of perceptive hearing loss. The incidence rates of meningococcal disease were comparable between densely and less densely populated areas, but patients living further from a hospital were at significantly higher risk of dying from the infection. To improve control of meningococcal disease, it is important to understand the epidemiology and pathogenicity of virulent ‘successful clones’, such as C:2a:P1.2,5 and B:15:P1.7,16, and, eventually, to develop vaccines against serogroup B.

scholarly journals Risk factors for mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at the start of the pandemic in Belgium: a retrospective cohort study

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karlijn van Halem ◽  
Robin Bruyndonckx ◽  
Jeroen van der Hilst ◽  
Janneke Cox ◽  
Paulien Driesen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background Belgium was among the first countries in Europe with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Since the first diagnosis on February 3rd, the epidemic has quickly evolved, with Belgium at the crossroads of Europe, being one of the hardest hit countries. Although risk factors for severe disease in COVID-19 patients have been described in Chinese and United States (US) cohorts, good quality studies reporting on clinical characteristics, risk factors and outcome of European COVID-19 patients are still scarce. Methods This study describes the clinical characteristics, complications and outcomes of 319 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, admitted to a tertiary care center at the start of the pandemic in Belgium, and aims to identify the main risk factors for in-hospital mortality in a European context using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Most patients were male (60%), the median age was 74 (IQR 61–83) and 20% of patients were admitted to the intensive care unit, of whom 63% needed invasive mechanical ventilation. The overall case fatality rate was 25%. The best predictors of in-hospital mortality in multivariate analysis were older age, and renal insufficiency, higher lactate dehydrogenase and thrombocytopenia. Patients admitted early in the epidemic had a higher mortality compared to patients admitted later in the epidemic. In univariate analysis, patients with obesity did have an overall increased risk of death, while overweight on the other hand showed a trend towards lower mortality. Conclusions Most patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first weeks of the epidemic in Belgium were admitted with severe disease and the overall case fatality rate was high. The identified risk factors for mortality are not easily amenable at short term, underscoring the lasting need of effective therapeutic and preventative measures.

scholarly journals Risk factors for mortality in patients over 70 years old with COVID-19 in Wuhan at the early break: retrospective case series

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Zhu ◽  
Wenzheng Yuan ◽  
Junwei Shao ◽  
Kesheng Huang ◽  
Qingbo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Blood Urea Nitrogen ◽  
Clinical Data ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Urea Nitrogen ◽  
High Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death

Abstract Background Elderly patients with COVID-19 were shown to have a high case-fatality rate. We aimed to explore the risk factors associated with death in patients over 70 years old (yr). Methods In this retrospective study, we enrolled consecutively hospitalized patients over 70 yr with COVID-19 between January 20 and February 15, 2020 in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University. Epidemiological, demographic, and clinical data were collected. Clinical subtypes, including mild, moderate, severe, and critical types, were used to evaluate the severity of disease. Patients were classified into two groups: survivor and non-survivor groups. Clinical data were compared between the two groups. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression methods were used to explore the risk factors. Results A total of 147 patients were enrolled. The case-fatality rate was 28.6%. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression showed that clinical subtypes, including the severe type (HR = 2.983, 95% CI: 1.231–7.226, P = 0.016) and the critical type (HR = 3.267, 95%CI: 1.009–10.576, P = 0.048), were associated with increasing risk of death when compared with the general type. Blood urea nitrogen greater than 9.5 mmol/L (HR = 2.805, 95% CI: 1.141–6.892, P = 0.025) on admission was an independent risk factor for death among laboratory findings. Conclusion The patients over 70 yr with COVID-19 had a high case-fatality rate. The risk factors, including clinical subtypes and blood urea nitrogen greater than 9.5 mmol/L, could help physicians to identify elderly patients with poor clinical outcomes at an early stage.

scholarly journals The theoretical mortality risk of an asymptomatic patient with a negative SARS-CoV-2 test developing COVID-19 following elective orthopaedic surgery

2020 ◽  
Vol 102-B (9) ◽  
pp. 1256-1260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nardeen Kader ◽  
Nick D. Clement ◽  
Vipul R. Patel ◽  
Nick Caplan ◽  
Paul Banaszkiewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Orthopaedic Surgery ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The Uk

Aims The risk to patients and healthcare workers of resuming elective orthopaedic surgery following the peak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been difficult to quantify. This has prompted governing bodies to adopt a cautious approach that may be impractical and financially unsustainable. The lack of evidence has made it impossible for surgeons to give patients an informed perspective of the consequences of elective surgery in the presence of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to determine, for the UK population, the probability of a patient being admitted with an undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection and their resulting risk of death; taking into consideration the current disease prevalence, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, and preassessment pathway. Methods The probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a false negative test was calculated using a lower-end RT-PCR sensitivity of 71%, specificity of 95%, and the UK disease prevalence of 0.24% reported in May 2020. Subsequently, a case fatality rate of 20.5% was applied as a worst-case scenario. Results The probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a false negative preoperative test was 0.07% (around 1 in 1,400). The risk of a patient with an undetected infection being admitted for surgery and subsequently dying from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is estimated at approximately 1 in 7,000. However, if an estimate of the current global infection fatality rate (1.04%) is applied, the risk of death would be around 1 in 140,000, at most. This calculation does not take into account the risk of nosocomial infection. Conversely, it does not factor in that patients will also be clinically assessed and asked to self-isolate prior to surgery. Conclusion Our estimation suggests that the risk of patients being inadvertently admitted with an undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection for elective orthopaedic surgery is relatively low. Accordingly, the risk of death following elective orthopaedic surgery is low, even when applying the worst-case fatality rate. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1256–1260.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Hospitalized Traumatic Pelvic Fractures and Their Combined Injuries in Taiwan: 2000–2011 National Health Insurance Data Surveillance

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan-Ping Yang ◽  
Chien-Lung Chan ◽  
Dachen Chu ◽  
Yu-Zhen Lin ◽  
Kai-Biao Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Pelvic Fractures ◽  
Lower Limbs ◽  
Body Region ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Associated Injuries ◽  
Health Insurance Data ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Combined Injuries

Background. From the viewpoint of prehospital emergency medicine, a greater proportion of pelvic fractures not of a life-threatening status but combined with other injuries need more comprehensive recognition.Methods. A 12-year nationwide health database of inpatients was reviewed. All cases diagnosed as pelvic fractures were enrolled. The associated injuries classified into 20 categories were further analyzed.Results. During 2000–2011, the hospitalized incidence of pelvic fractures in Taiwan ranged from 17.17 to 19.42 per 100,000, and an increasing trend with age was observed. The mean case-fatality rate was 1.6% for females and 2.1% for males; male patients with pelvic fractures had a significantly higher risk of death than female patients after adjusting for other covariates. 74.2% of these cases were combined with other injuries. The most common associated injuries in an identified body region were other orthopedic fractures of the lower limbs (21.50%), spine/trunk (20.97%), or upper limbs (18.18%), followed by significant head injuries (17.59%), intra-abdominal injuries (11.00%), and thoracic injuries (7.20%).Conclusion. The incidence of hospitalized pelvic fractures in Taiwan was low and the case-fatality rate was lower than those of other countries. Concurrently, coexistence of major combined injuries with pelvic fractures was easily treated at medical centers.

scholarly journals Epidemiological characteristics of Brazilian spotted fever in Minas Gerais State, Brazil, 2000-2008

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 1969-1976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederico Figueiredo Amâncio ◽  
Vânia Dutra Amorim ◽  
Talita Leal Chamone ◽  
Mariana Gontijo de Brito ◽  
Simone Berger Calic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Spotted Fever ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Brazilian Spotted Fever ◽  
Belo Horizonte ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Brazilian spotted fever is the most common rickettsiosis in Brazil, most prevalent in the States of São Paulo and Minas Gerais. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological characteristics of Brazilian spotted fever in Minas Gerais from 2000 to 2008. Of the 132 cases of Brazilian spotted fever, 53 patients died, representing a case-fatality rate of 40.2%. Males predominated, with 78.8% of confirmed cases, and median age was 26.5 years. Absence of rash was associated with increased risk of death (p = 0.005). Greater Metropolitan Belo Horizonte, Rio Doce Valley, and Zona da Mata accounted for 70.6% of the cases, which occurred mainly from May to November. There was an increase in the number of cases, which could suggest an expansion of the disease, but probably resulted from an increase in the health system's diagnostic capacity and sensitivity. Despite this improvement, the case-fatality rate remains high and with no apparent tendency to decrease, thus indicating the need for improved prevention and patient care.

scholarly journals Old subjects with sepsis: trend analysis of case fatality rate in the Emergency Department

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Fabbri ◽  
Giulio Marchesini ◽  
Barbara Benazzi ◽  
Alice Morelli ◽  
Danilo Montesi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Relative Proportion ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Italian Hospital

Abstract Background: The burden of sepsis represents a global health care problem. We aimed to assess the case fatality rate (CFR) and its predictors in subjects with sepsis admitted to a general Italian hospital from 2009 to 2016, stratified by risk score.Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of all sepsis-related hospitalizations after Emergency Department (ED) visit in a public Italian hospital in an 8-year period. A risk score to predict CFR was computed by logistic regression analysis of selected variables in a training set (2009-2012), and then confirmed in the whole study population. A trend analysis of CFR during the study period was performed dividing patient as high-risk (upper tertile of risk score) or low-risk . Results: 2,492 subjects were included. Over time the incidental admission rate (no. of sepsis-related admissions per 100 total admissions) increased from 4.1% (2009-2010) to 5.4% (2015-2016); P<0.001, accompanied by a reduced CFR (from 38.0% to 18.4%; P<0.001). A group of 10 variables (admission in intensive care unit, cardio-vascular dysfunction, HIV infection, diabetes, age ≥80 years, respiratory diseases, number of organ dysfunction, digestive diseases, dementia and cancer) were selected by the logistic model to predict CFR with good accuracy: AUC 0.873 [0.009]. Along the years CFR decreased from 31.8% (2009-2010) to 25.0% (2015-2016); P = 0.007. The relative proportion of subjects ≥80 years (overall, 52.9% of cases) and classified as high-risk did not change along the years. CFR decreased only in low-risk subjects (from 13.3% to 5.2%; P<0.001), and particularly in those aged ≥80 (from 18.2% to 6.6%; P=0.003), but not in high-risk individuals (from 69.9% to 64.2%; P=0.713). Conclusion: Between 2009 and 2016 the incidence of sepsis-related hospitalization increased in a general Italian hospital, with a downward trend in CFR, only limited to low-risk patients and particularly to subjects ≥80 years.

scholarly journals Old subjects with sepsis: trend analysis of case fatality rate in the Emergency Department

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Fabbri ◽  
Giulio Marchesini ◽  
Barbara Benazzi ◽  
Alice Morelli ◽  
Danilo Montesi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Relative Proportion ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Italian Hospital

Abstract Background The burden of sepsis represents a global health care problem. We aimed to assess the case fatality rate (CFR) and its predictors in subjects with sepsis admitted to a general Italian hospital from 2009 to 2016, stratified by risk score. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of all sepsis-related hospitalizations after Emergency Department (ED) visit in a public Italian hospital in an 8-year period. A risk score to predict CFR was computed by logistic regression analysis of selected variables in a training set (2009-2012), and then confirmed in the whole study population. A trend analysis of CFR during the study period was performed dividing patient as high-risk (upper tertile of risk score) or low-risk . Results 2,492 subjects were included. Over time the incidental admission rate (no. of sepsis-related admissions per 100 total admissions) increased from 4.1% (2009-2010) to 5.4% (2015-2016); P<0.001, accompanied by a reduced CFR (from 38.0% to 18.4%; P<0.001). A group of 10 variables (admission in intensive care unit, cardio-vascular dysfunction, HIV infection, diabetes, age ≥80 years, respiratory diseases, number of organ dysfunction, digestive diseases, dementia and cancer) were selected by the logistic model to predict CFR with good accuracy: AUC 0.873 [0.009]. Along the years CFR decreased from 31.8% (2009-2010) to 25.0% (2015-2016); P = 0.007. The relative proportion of subjects ≥80 years (overall, 52.9% of cases) and classified as high-risk did not change along the years. CFR decreased only in low-risk subjects (from 13.3% to 5.2%; P<0.001), and particularly in those aged ≥80 (from 18.2% to 6.6%; P=0.003), but not in high-risk individuals (from 69.9% to 64.2%; P=0.713). Conclusion Between 2009 and 2016 the incidence of sepsis-related hospitalization increased in a general Italian hospital, with a downward trend in CFR, only limited to low-risk patients and particularly to subjects ≥80 years.

scholarly journals  Risk factors for mortality in patients over 70 years old with COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Zhu ◽  
Wenzheng Yuan ◽  
Junwei Shao ◽  
Kesheng Huang ◽  
Qingbo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Blood Urea Nitrogen ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Urea Nitrogen ◽  
High Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death

Abstract Background: Elderly patients with COVID-19 were shown to have a high case-fatality rate. We aimed to explore the risk factors associated with death in patients over 70 years old (yo).Methods: In this retrospective study, we enrolled patients over 70 yo with COVID-19 between January 20 and February 15, 2020. Epidemiological, demographic, and clinical data were collected. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression methods were used to explore the risk factors.Results: A total of 147 patients were enrolled. The case-fatality rate was 28.6%. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression showed that clinical subtypes including the severe type (HR = 2.983, 95% CI: 1.231–7.226, P = 0.016) and the critical type (HR = 3.267, 95%CI: 1.009–10.576, P = 0.048) were associated with increasing risk of death when compared with the general type. Blood urea nitrogen greater than 9.5 mmol/L (HR = 2.805, 95% CI: 1.141–6.892, P = 0.025) on admission was an independent risk factor for death among laboratory findings.Conclusion: The patients over 70 yo with COVID-19 had a high case-fatality rate. The risk factors including clinical subtypes and blood urea nitrogen greater than 9.5 mmol/L could help physicians to identify elderly patients with poor clinical outcomes at an early stage.

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