scholarly journals Semiparametric estimation of the attributable fraction when there are interactions under monotonicity constraints

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Wang ◽  
Dylan S. Small ◽  
Michael O. Harhay
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
B Splines ◽  
Fitting Procedure ◽  
Semiparametric Approach ◽  
Linear Relationships ◽  
Monotonicity Constraints ◽  
Monotonicity Constraint

Abstract Background The population attributable fraction (PAF) is the fraction of disease cases in a sample that can be attributed to an exposure. Estimating the PAF often involves the estimation of the probability of having the disease given the exposure while adjusting for confounders. In many settings, the exposure can interact with confounders. Additionally, the exposure may have a monotone effect on the probability of having the disease, and this effect is not necessarily linear. Methods We develop a semiparametric approach for estimating the probability of having the disease and, consequently, for estimating the PAF, controlling for the interaction between the exposure and a confounder. We use a tensor product of univariate B-splines to model the interaction under the monotonicity constraint. The model fitting procedure is formulated as a quadratic programming problem, and, thus, can be easily solved using standard optimization packages. We conduct simulations to compare the performance of the developed approach with the conventional B-splines approach without the monotonicity constraint, and with the logistic regression approach. To illustrate our method, we estimate the PAF of hopelessness and depression for suicidal ideation among elderly depressed patients. Results The proposed estimator exhibited better performance than the other two approaches in the simulation settings we tried. The estimated PAF attributable to hopelessness is 67.99% with 95% confidence interval: 42.10% to 97.42%, and is 22.36% with 95% confidence interval: 12.77% to 56.49% due to depression. Conclusions The developed approach is easy to implement and supports flexible modeling of possible non-linear relationships between a disease and an exposure of interest.

scholarly journals Population attributable fraction in textbooks: Time to revise

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 100062
Author(s):  
Ahmad Khosravi ◽  
Maryam Nazemipour ◽  
Tomohiro Shinozaki ◽  
Mohammad Ali Mansournia
Keyword(s):  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Attributable Fraction

Chlamydial Pgp3 seropositivity and population attributable fraction among women with tubal factor infertility

2021 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria E. Anyalechi ◽  
Jaeyoung Hong ◽  
Robert D. Kirkcaldy ◽  
Harold C. Wiesenfeld ◽  
Paddy Horner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
Tubal Factor Infertility ◽  
Tubal Factor

scholarly journals Population attributable fraction of incident HIV infections associated with alcohol consumption in fishing communities around Lake Victoria, Uganda

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. e0171200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah Kiwanuka ◽  
Ali Ssetaala ◽  
Ismail Ssekandi ◽  
Annet Nalutaaya ◽  
Paul Kato Kitandwe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Lake Victoria ◽  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
Fishing Communities

scholarly journals Groundwater Arsenic-Attributable Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Mortality Risks in India

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 2232
Author(s):  
Ruohan Wu ◽  
Lingqian Xu ◽  
David A. Polya
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Exposure ◽  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Exposure Pathway ◽  
Groundwater Arsenic ◽  
Cvd Mortality ◽  
High Arsenic

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have been recognized as the most serious non-carcinogenic detrimental health outcome arising from chronic exposure to arsenic. Drinking arsenic contaminated groundwaters is a critical and common exposure pathway for arsenic, notably in India and other countries in the circum-Himalayan region. Notwithstanding this, there has hitherto been a dearth of data on the likely impacts of this exposure on CVD in India. In this study, CVD mortality risks arising from drinking groundwater with high arsenic (>10 μg/L) in India and its constituent states, territories, and districts were quantified using the population-attributable fraction (PAF) approach. Using a novel pseudo-contouring approach, we estimate that between 58 and 64 million people are exposed to arsenic exceeding 10 μg/L in groundwater-derived drinking water in India. On an all-India basis, we estimate that 0.3–0.6% of CVD mortality is attributable to exposure to high arsenic groundwaters, corresponding to annual avoidable premature CVD-related deaths attributable to chronic exposure to groundwater arsenic in India of between around 6500 and 13,000. Based on the reported reduction in life of 12 to 28 years per death due to heart disease, we calculate value of statistical life (VSL) based annual costs to India of arsenic-attributable CVD mortality of between USD 750 million and USD 3400 million.

Genetic influences on post-natal depressive symptoms: findings from an Australian twin sample

1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 645-654 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. TRELOAR ◽  
N. G. MARTIN ◽  
K. K. BUCHOLZ ◽  
P. A. F. MADDEN ◽  
A. C. HEATH
Keyword(s):  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Major Depression ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Genetic Model ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Diagnostic Interview ◽  
Genetic Influences ◽  
Conflicting Evidence ◽  
Post Natal Depression ◽  
Obstetric Factors

Background. Conflicting evidence exists on causes of vulnerability to post-natal depression. We investigated genetic and environmental influences on variation in post-natal depressive symptoms (PNDS) following first live birth, and sources of covariation with the personality trait Neuroticism and lifetime major depression occurring post-natally (DEP-PN) and at other times (DEP-XPN) to test for shared genetic influences.Method. Retrospective interview and questionnaire data from 838 parous female twin pairs (539 monozygotic, 299 dizygotic) from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council volunteer adult twin register were used for multivariate genetic model-fitting. Data on PNDS were evaluated for consistency with diagnostic interview assessment.Results. Genetic factors explained 38% of variance in PNDS (95% confidence interval 26–49%) and 25% of the variance in interview-assessed DEP-PN. The genetic correlation between PNDS and lifetime major depression (DEP-PN and DEP-XPN) was low (rg = 0·17, 95% confidence interval = 0·09–0·28), suggesting that the questionnaire was measuring a construct other than post-natally occurring major depression, possibly post-natal dysphoria. Associations between PNDS and obstetric factors were very modest.Conclusions. Findings suggest modest genetic influences on major depression occurring post-natally. Independent and stronger genetic influences identified for post-natal symptomatology or dysphoria (PNDS) justify further investigation.

Abstract P299: Changes in Race-Sex Specific Population Attributable Fraction for Obesity-Related Diabetes, 2001-2016

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Cameron ◽  
Megan McCabe ◽  
Lucia Petito ◽  
Norrina B Allen ◽  
Mercedes R Carnethon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
Incident Diabetes ◽  
Obesity Prevalence ◽  
Longitudinal Assessment ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Over Time

Introduction: Estimating effects of population-level increases in obesity on diabetes has important implications for public health policy. Therefore, we used the population attributable fraction (PAF) to quantify trends in the burden of obesity on incident diabetes in key sex and race/ethnicity subgroups over time. Hypothesis: PAFs for obesity attributable incident diabetes will be greatest for women, differ by race/ethnicity and increase over time. Methods: Using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), we estimated unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of obesity on incident diabetes mellitus (DM). We included non-Hispanic White (NHW), non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and Hispanic-Mexican (MA) MESA participants with available data on body mass index and key covariates and without DM at baseline. Next, we estimated the prevalence of obesity in four pooled groups of NHANES survey cycles from 2001-2016 with similar characteristics to MESA participants (age 45-80 years, NHW, NHB, and MA without cardiovascular disease). Lastly, we combined estimates from MESA and NHANES to quantify unadjusted and adjusted PAFs (adjusted for age, income, education, physical activity and diet). Leveraging the objective longitudinal assessment of incident DM in MESA and a nationally representative sample of NHANES, we estimated broadly generalizable PAF estimates over time. Results: Of 3869 MESA participants, mean age was 61 (± 10) years with 47% men, 56% NHW, 31% NHB, and 13% MA. Incidence of DM was 11% with overall adjusted HR of 2.75 (95% CI 2.26, 3.34) for obesity. Prevalence of obesity increased from 34% (32, 37) in 2001-2004 to 41% (39, 44) in 2013-2016. Overall adjusted PAFs ranged from 0.23 to 0.52 over the study period (TABLE), with greatest estimates in NHW women. Conclusions: In conclusion, over time, the proportion of diabetes due to obesity has increased across multiple subgroups of the population, further highlighting the health burden of obesity in the population.

scholarly journals Children’s Respiratory Infections in Tianjin Area, China: Associations with Home Environments and Lifestyles

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 4069
Author(s):  
Jing Hou ◽  
Dachao Lv ◽  
Yuexia Sun ◽  
Pan Wang ◽  
Qingnan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Floor Covering ◽  
Home Environments ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Ear Infection ◽  
Poor Ventilation

Children spend most of their indoors time at home, which may have substantial influence on their health. We conducted a cross-sectional study in the Tianjin area, China to quantify the incidence of respiratory infections among children, and its association with home environments and lifestyles. The lifetime-ever incidences of croup, pneumonia and ear infection among children aged 0–8 in Tianjin area was 9.2%, 28.7% and 11.6%, respectively. The incidence of common cold infections more than twice per year was 31.3%. Home environments and lifestyles included strong risk factors for childhood respiratory infections. Perceived dry air had the greatest association with childhood common colds (population attributable fraction (PAF = 15.0%). Modern floor covering had the greatest association with croup (PAF = 14.7%) and ear infection (PAF = 34.5%), while infrequent bedding sun-curing had the greatest association with pneumonia (PAF = 18.7%). Condensation (a proxy of poor ventilation) accounted for 12.2% of the incidence of croup (PAF = 12.2%) and frequent common colds (PAF = 8.4%). Our findings indicate that factors related to “modern” home environments and lifestyles are risks for childhood respiratory infections. Modifying such factors might reduce the incidence of respiratory infections among children.

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