scholarly journals On clinical trial fragility due to patients lost to follow up

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin R. Baer ◽  
Stephen E. Fremes ◽  
Mario Gaudino ◽  
Mary Charlson ◽  
Martin T. Wells

Abstract Background Clinical trials routinely have patients lost to follow up. We propose a methodology to understand their possible effect on the results of statistical tests by altering the concept of the fragility index to treat the outcomes of observed patients as fixed but incorporate the potential outcomes of patients lost to follow up as random and subject to modification. Methods We reanalyse the statistical results of three clinical trials on coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) to study the possible effect of patients lost to follow up on the treatment effect statistical significance. To do so, we introduce the LTFU-aware fragility indices as a measure of the robustness of a clinical trial’s statistical results with respect to patients lost to follow up. Results The analyses illustrate that clinical trials can either be completely robust to the outcomes of patients lost to follow up, extremely sensitive to the outcomes of patients lost to follow up, or in an intermediate state. When a clinical trial is in an intermediate state, the LTFU-aware fragility indices provide an interpretable measure to quantify the degree of fragility or robustness. Conclusions The LTFU-aware fragility indices allow researchers to rigorously explore the outcomes of patients who are lost to follow up, when their data is the appropriate kind. The LTFU-aware fragility indices are sensitivity measures in a way that the original fragility index is not.

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debdipta Bose ◽  
Mahanjit Konwar

Background: It is essential for Randomized controlled trials [RCTs] to report its results in a comprehensive manner. Hence, it is necessary to assess the robustness of the trials with statistically significant and as well as non-significant results. Robustness can be evaluated using fragility index (FI) and reverse fragility index [RFI] is for trials with statistically significant and as well as non-significant results. The primary aim of this study was to calculate FI and RFI for cardiovascular outcome trials [CVOT]. Materials & Methods: PubMed/MEDLINE was searched to identify all RCTs of antidiabetic drugs where the primary objective was to evaluate the cardiovascular outcomes. We recorded the trial characteristics of each CVOT trial. The FI, RFI, Fragility quotient [FQ] and reverse fragility quotient [FQ] was calculated to evaluate the robustness of the trials. Spearman rank correlation test was used for correlation. Findings: A total of 889 studies were identified and 24 RCTs was included. Among the 24 trials, 12 [50%] trials achieved statistical significance. The median FI and RFI were 29 [4-12] and 22.5 [1-37] for trials with statistically significant and non-significant results. The median FQ and RFQ were 0.0075 [0.002-0.013] and 0.0003 [0.0001-0.004] for trials with statistically significant and non-significant results. The hazard ratio, p value and NNT-B had strong negative relation with FI. Interpretation: Our study showed that half of the trials showing superiority of cardioprotective benefits have favourable FI. The trials failed to show superiority also have a reasonable RFI indicating the robustness of these trials. But the results pf the trials where patients lost to follow-up exceed the FI of that trial demands caution during interpretation.


Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 2818-2818
Author(s):  
Krisstina Gowin ◽  
Prakash Thapaliya ◽  
J Samuelson ◽  
C N Harrison ◽  
Deepti Radia ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 2818 Background: Pegylated interferon alpha-2a (Peg INF2a) has been demonstrated to be active therapy for high-risk essential thrombocythemia (ET) and polycythemia vera (PV), as well as treatment for early myelofibrosis (MF). We retrospectively analyzed the outcomes of Peg INF2a therapy in MPN patients treated outside the constraints of a clinical trial in the USA and EU. Methods: Clinical records of MPN patients treated at the participating centers, receiving Peg INF2a outside of the context of a clinical trial, were analyzed for response (ET and PV by ELN criteria; MF by EUNMET and IWG-MRT criteria), toxicity, and duration of response. Results: Patients: 115 patients were identified (54 PV (47%), 44 ET (38%), 17 MF (15%)) with a median age at diagnosis (48) and gender distribution (59% females) typical for the disorders. The patients had been diagnosed with the MPN a median of 44 months (0.0–312 months) prior to initiation of the Peg IFN2a and 64% harbored the JAK2-V617F mutation. The majority of patients (81%) had received at least one prior cytoreductive therapy for their disease (73 hydroxyurea, 39 anagrelide, 37 aspirin, 21 prior interferon (non pegylated), 3 phlebotomy alone). Therapy: Median starting dose of Peg INF2a was 45 micrograms/week (range: 22.5–180) with peak starting doses ranging from 30 to 300 micrograms/week. A total of 84 patients (73%) remain on Peg IFN2a with median duration of treatment of 17 months (range: 1.0–92). Toxicity: Overall the Peg INF2a was well tolerated. Hematological toxicity was Gr 3 or lower. There were 6 cases with anemia (5%), 10 with thrombocytopenia (9%) and 8 had leukopenia (7%). Most common non-hematologic toxicities were Gr 1–3 fatigue in 27 (23%), Gr 1 LFT elevation in 6 (5%), Gr 2–3 skin/allergic reaction in 6 (5%), Gr 1–2 nausea in 5 (4%), and Gr 2 mood disorder in 5 (4%) patients. Twenty patients (17%) discontinued therapy secondary to toxicity. Response: ET-PV: By ELN criteria, 30 PV patients achieved CR (55%), 17 achieved PR (31%), 4 achieved NR (7%), and 3 patients (5%) were lost to follow up or were too early to evaluate for response. In ET, the responses were CR in 27 (61%), PR in 7 (16%), NR in 4 (9%), and 6 patients (14%) were lost to follow up or were too early to evaluate for response. MF: The responses by IWG criteria were 1 CR (6%), 2 PR (12%), 2 CI (12%) and 9 SD (53%). By EUNMET, there were 2 CR (12%), 4 major responses (24%), 4 moderate responses (24%), 1 minor response (6%), 2 no response (12%), and 3 patients (17%) were lost to follow up or were too early to evaluate for response. Conclusions: Peg INF2a used at doses consistent with published clinical trials is active and well-tolerated when administered in a clinical setting outside of the support of a clinical trial. Given the majority of patients had previously failed cytoreductive therapy these results substantiate prior reports of efficacy of Peg INF2a in MPNs. Upcoming randomized clinical trials through the Myeloproliferative Disorders Research Consortium will help further define the role of Peg INF2a as first line therapy in high-risk MPNs. Disclosures: Mesa: Incyte: Research Funding; Lilly: Research Funding; SBio: Research Funding; Astra Zeneca: Research Funding; NS Pharma: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 2055-2055
Author(s):  
Alexandra Desnoyers ◽  
Michelle Nadler ◽  
Ramy Saleh ◽  
Eitan Amir

2055 Background: The Fragility Index (FI) quantifies the reliability of positive trials by estimating the number of events which would change statistically significant results to non-significant results. Here, we calculate the FI of trials supporting approval of drugs for common solid tumors. Methods: We searched Drugs@FDA to identify randomized trials (RCT) supporting drug approvals by the US Food and Drug Administration between January 2009 and December 2019 in lung, breast, prostate, gastric and colon cancers. We adapted the FI framework (Walsh et al. J Clin Epidemiol 2014) to allow use of time to event data. First, we reconstructed survival tables from reported data using the Parmar Toolkit (Parmar et al. Stat Med 1998) and then calculated the number of events which would result in a non-significant effect for the primary endpoint of each trial. The FI was then compared quantitatively to the number of patients in each trial who withdrew consent or were lost to follow-up. Multivariable linear regression was used to explore association between RCT characteristics and the FI. Results: We identified 69 RCT with a median of 669 patients (range 123-4804) and 358 primary outcome events (range 56-884). The median FI was 26 (range 1-322). The FI was ≤10 in 21 trials (30%) and ≤20 in 31 trials (45%). Among the 69 RCT, the median number of patients who withdrew consent or were lost to follow up was 27 (range, 6-317). The number of patients who withdrew consent or were lost to follow-up was equal or greater than the FI in 42 trials (61%). There was statistically significant inverse association between FI and trial hazard ratio (p0,001) and a positive association with number of patients who were lost to follow-up or withdrew consent (p0,001). There was no association between trial sample size, year of approval or reported p-value and the FI. Conclusions: Statistical significance of trials supporting drug approval in common solid tumors relies often on a small number of events. In most trials the FI was lower than the number of patients lost to follow up or withdrawing consent. Post-approval randomized trials or real-world data analyses should be performed to ensure that effects observed in registration trials are robust.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaolei Zhou ◽  
Diana Garbinsky ◽  
John Ouyang ◽  
Eric Davenport ◽  
Indra Agarwal ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and Aims : Observation of impactful clinical outcomes in a clinical trial setting for ADPKD is challenging due to the life-long progressive nature of ADPKD and longer-term associated outcomes of interest in this population (e.g., renal function decline, cardiovascular events, and mortality). Since 2004, the tolvaptan (TOL) clinical trial program enrolled subjects in multiple clinical studies with the opportunity to enroll in subsequent clinical trials for treatment and outcomes evaluation. Method : Data from 6 ADPKD studies (protocols 156-04-250, 156-04-251, 156-06-260, 156-09-284, 156-09-290, 156-08-271) were pooled and evaluated over time for overall treatment duration, treatment time, and treatment gaps. Treatment duration for the individual clinical trials ranged from 1 week to up to 3 years. Results : Overall, 1,437 subjects received TOL in these ADPKD clinical trials. For these subjects, the mean overall treatment duration was 4.1 years (3.8 years on treatment) with a maximum of 9.7 years (9.0 years on treatment). In this cohort, 513 subjects (35.7%) received TOL treatment for more than 5 years. Mean treatment compliance was 94.1%. Overall, 723 subjects (50.3%) received TOL treatment in ≥2 trials, with a median treatment gap duration between trials of 0.1 years (maximum, 5.6 years). At least 7 years of follow-up data are available for estimated glomerular filtration rate in 241 subjects (mean at baseline, 78.6 mL/min/1.73m2) and for total kidney volume in 130 subjects (mean at baseline, 1,816.9 mL). Conclusion : This analysis provides longitudinal follow-up over an extended timeframe in a large number of subjects treated with TOL, with the greatest number of subjects being enrolled in clinical trials enriched for rapidly progressing ADPKD. Treatment compliance over years was reasonably good despite treatment gaps.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1543-1543
Author(s):  
Peter Blankenship ◽  
David DeLaRosa ◽  
Marc Burris ◽  
Steven Cusson ◽  
Kayla Hendricks ◽  
...  

1543 Background: Tissue requirements in oncology clinical trials are increasingly complex due to prescreening protocols for patient selection and serial biopsies to understand molecular-level treatment effects. Novel solutions for tissue processing are necessary for timely tissue procurement. Based on these needs, we developed a Tissue Tracker (TT), a comprehensive database for study-related tissue tasks at our high-volume clinical trial center. Methods: In this Microsoft Access database, patients are assigned an ID within the TT that is associated with their name, medical record number, and study that follows their request to external users: pathology departments, clinical trial coordinators and data team members. To complete tasks in the TT, relevant information is required to update the status. Due to the high number of archival tissue requests from unique pathology labs, the TT has a “Follow-Up Dashboard” that organizes information needed to conduct follow-up on all archival samples with the status “Requested”. This results in an autogenerated email and pdf report sent to necessary teams. The TT also includes a kit inventory system and a real-time read only version formatted for interdepartmental communication, metric reporting, and other data-driven efforts. The primary outcome in this study was to evaluate our average turnaround time (ATAT: average time from request to shipment) for archival and fresh tissue samples before and after TT development. Results: Before implementing the TT, between March 2016 and March 2018, we processed 2676 archival requests from 235 unique source labs resulting in 2040 shipments with an ATAT of 19.29 days. We also processed 1099 fresh biopsies resulting in 944 shipments with an ATAT of 7.72 days. After TT implementation, between April 2018 and April 2020, we processed 2664 archival requests from 204 unique source labs resulting in 2506 shipments (+28.0%) with an ATAT of 14.78 days (-23.4%). During that same period, we processed 1795 fresh biopsies (+63.3%) resulting in 2006 shipments (+112.5%) with an ATAT of 6.85 days (-11.3%). Conclusions: Oncology clinical trials continue to evolve toward more extensive tissue requirements for prescreening and scientific exploration of on-treatment molecular profiling. Timely results are required to optimize patient trial participation. During the intervention period, our tissue sample volume and shipments increased, but the development and implementation of an automated tracking system allowed improvement in ATAT of both archival and fresh tissue. This automation not only improves end-user expectations and experiences for patients and trial sponsors but this allows our team to adapt to the increasing interest in tissue exploration.


2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Can Güven ◽  
Deniz Aral Ozbek ◽  
Taha Koray Sahin ◽  
Melek Seren Aksun ◽  
Gozde Kavgaci ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and Aims The immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) became a vital part of cancer treatment. The ICIs seem to be safer than chemotherapy for kidneys in clinical trials. However, recent observational studies from high-resource settings pointed out the possible underreporting of renal adverse events like acute kidney injury (AKI) in the clinical trials due to focusing only to the renal immune-related adverse events. Additionally, clinical trials generally enroll a fitter population with lesser comorbidities and include mostly treatment-naive patients making studies in real-life cohorts imperative for evaluating the AKI rates during ICI treatment. From these points, we aimed to evaluate the AKI rates and predisposing factors in ICI-treated patients. Method This retrospective study has evaluated the data of adult metastatic cancer patients treated with ICIs in Hacettepe University Cancer Center from 01.2014 to 12.2019. All patients other than the ones treated within the context of clinical trials or followed in other institutions after the first dose of ICIs were included. Baseline demographics, cancer types, patient weight and heights, ICI type and the number of cycles, serum creatinine and the estimated GFR values under treatment, regular medications, and comorbidities were recorded. AKI was defined by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria. The predisposing factors to AKI development were evaluated with the univariate and multivariate analyses. Results A total of 147 patients were included in the analyses. Median age was 61 [interquartile range (IQR) 51-67], and 69.4% of the patients were male. Patients were given a median of 8 (IQR 5-17) ICI cycles. Patients with melanoma (24.5%), non-small cell lung cancer (15%), and renal cell carcinoma (25.9%) comprised almost 2/3 of the cohort and 72.8% of the patients were treated with nivolumab. Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (38.1%), followed by chronic kidney disease (21.2%) and type 2 diabetes (19.7%). Median Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was 8 (7-9). Median follow-up was 10.3 (IQR 6.3-19.4) months, and patients had median 9 (IQR 5-18) serum creatinine measurements. During the follow-up, 28 patients (19%) had at least one AKI episode with multiple AKI episodes in 3 patients (10.7%). The median time to AKI development was 2.53 (IQR 1.39-6.19) months. Almost all AKI events were mild (grade 1 or 2 in 27/28) and reversible (25/28). In univariate analyses, coronary artery disease (CAD) (p=<0.001), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (p=0.002), previous nephrectomy (p=0.015), iodinated contrast exposure in the week before immunotherapy (p=0.035), the use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (p=0.046) or proton pump inhibitors (PPI) (p=0.041) was associated with an increased AKI risk. The association between diabetes (p=0.067), higher CCI (9 vs. ≥9, p=0.107), baseline lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.177), and performance status (ECOG 0 vs. ≥1, p=0.235) and AKI risk did not reach statistical significance. In multivariate analyses, patients with CKD (OR: 3.719, 95% CI: 1.375- 10.057, p=0.010) or CAD (OR: 4.774, 95% CI: 1.803- 12.641, p=0.002) had increased AKI risk. Additionally, regular PPI use (OR: 2.734, 95% CI: .991- 7.542, p=0.052) had borderline statistical significance for AKI development. The development of AKI was not associated with decreased survival (HR: 0.726, 95% CI: 0.409-1.291, p=0.276). Conclusion In this study, we observed AKI development under ICIs in almost one in five cancer patients. The increased AKI rates in patients with CAD, CKD, or regular PPI use pointed out the need for better onco-nephrology collaboration in all ICI-treated patients, with a particular emphasis in these high-risk patients.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. e053096
Author(s):  
Maia Salholz-Hillel ◽  
Peter Grabitz ◽  
Molly Pugh-Jones ◽  
Daniel Strech ◽  
Nicholas J DeVito

ObjectiveTo examine how and when the results of COVID-19 clinical trials are disseminated.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingThe COVID-19 clinical trial landscape.Participants285 registered interventional clinical trials for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 completed by 30 June 2020.Main outcome measuresOverall reporting and reporting by dissemination route (ie, by journal article, preprint or results on a registry); time to reporting by dissemination route.ResultsFollowing automated and manual searches of the COVID-19 literature, we located 41 trials (14%) with results spread across 47 individual results publications published by 15 August 2020. The most common dissemination route was preprints (n=25) followed by journal articles (n=18), and results on a registry (n=2). Of these, four trials were available as both a preprint and journal publication. The cumulative incidence of any reporting surpassed 20% at 119 days from completion. Sensitivity analyses using alternate dates and definitions of results did not appreciably change the reporting percentage. Expanding minimum follow-up time to 3 months increased the overall reporting percentage to 19%.ConclusionCOVID-19 trials completed during the first 6 months of the pandemic did not consistently yield rapid results in the literature or on clinical trial registries. Our findings suggest that the COVID-19 response may be seeing quicker results disclosure compared with non-emergency conditions. Issues with the reliability and timeliness of trial registration data may impact our estimates. Ensuring registry data are accurate should be a priority for the research community during a pandemic. Data collection is underway for the next phase of the DIssemination of REgistered COVID-19 Clinical Trials study expanding both our trial population and follow-up time.


2022 ◽  
pp. 875647932110702
Author(s):  
Rrezarta Alihajdaraj ◽  
Adem Grbolar ◽  
Xhevdet Krasniqi ◽  
Tefik Bekteshi ◽  
Aurora Bakalli

Objective: Pericardial effusion is a frequent finding in patients who undergo cardiac surgery. There are currently limited data providing information regarding the factors that may contribute to postoperative pericarditis. The aim was to evaluate laboratory and echocardiographic features that may influence the presence of pericardial effusion 6 to 8 weeks following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Materials and Methods: This was a prospective cross-sectional study that included 90 patients after CABG operation who were divided into two groups. A total of 32 (35.56%) patients with pericardial effusion on follow-up echocardiography formed the first group and 58 patients without pericardial effusion the second group, which were compared in respect to components that were taken prior to the operation. Results: The groups did not differ regarding sex (males 65.62% vs 63.79%, P = .86) or age (59.59 ± 9.29 vs 61.69 ± 10.71, P = .35). Platelet count (184.74 ± 58.79 vs 222.62 ± 88.97, P = .03) and left ventricular (LV) global longitudinal strain (GLS) (−14.64 ± 6.86 vs −16.96 ± 4.1, P = .04) demonstrated statistical significance. Conclusion: Prolonged postoperative pericardial effusion in small amounts may be found in patients, with preoperative lower thrombocyte count and LV GLS, which could be possible predisposing factors.


2020 ◽  
Vol 106 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcello Scarcia ◽  
Giuseppe Mario Ludovico ◽  
Angela Fortunato ◽  
Alba Fiorentino

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospital reorganization may result in reduced ability for the hospital to fully use its armamentarium for battling cancer. Thus different therapeutic modalities have been recommended. During the pandemic, despite regulatory agencies’ recommendations, several considerations and doubts remain for oncologic clinical trials. Considering patients who had been enrolled before the pandemic, and who plan to take the study medication, the situation becomes complicated. These patients should undergo monitoring visits, blood sampling, questionnaire, physical examination, and drug and radiation administration. To avoid deviations from the protocol and trial discontinuation, follow-up should be performed regularly, in concordance with safety guidelines. Here we report several considerations.


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