scholarly journals Prediction of hospital bed capacity during the COVID− 19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mieke Deschepper ◽  
Kristof Eeckloo ◽  
Simon Malfait ◽  
Dominique Benoit ◽  
Steven Callens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Model ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Planning Tool ◽  
Multistate Model ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Hospital Wards

Abstract Background Prediction of the necessary capacity of beds by ward type (e.g. ICU) is essential for planning purposes during epidemics, such as the COVID− 19 pandemic. The COVID− 19 taskforce within the Ghent University hospital made use of ten-day forecasts on the required number of beds for COVID− 19 patients across different wards. Methods The planning tool combined a Poisson model for the number of newly admitted patients on each day with a multistate model for the transitions of admitted patients to the different wards, discharge or death. These models were used to simulate the required capacity of beds by ward type over the next 10 days, along with worst-case and best-case bounds. Results Overall, the models resulted in good predictions of the required number of beds across different hospital wards. Short-term predictions were especially accurate as these are less sensitive to sudden changes in number of beds on a given ward (e.g. due to referrals). Code snippets and details on the set-up are provided to guide the reader to apply the planning tool on one’s own hospital data. Conclusions We were able to achieve a fast setup of a planning tool useful within the COVID− 19 pandemic, with a fair prediction on the needed capacity by ward type. This methodology can also be applied for other epidemics.

scholarly journals Prediction of hospital bed capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mieke Deschepper ◽  
Kristof Eeckloo ◽  
Simon Malfait ◽  
Dominique Benoit ◽  
Steven Callens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Model ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Planning Tool ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Hospital Wards

Abstract Background: Prediction of the necessary capacity of beds by ward type (e.g. ICU) is essential for planning purposes during epidemics, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 taskforce within the Ghent University hospital made use of ten-day forecasts on the required number of beds for COVID-19 patients across different wards.Methods: The planning tool combined a Poisson model for the number of newly admitted patients on each day with a multistate model for the transitions of admitted patients to the different wards, discharge or death. These models were used to simulate the required capacity of beds by ward type over the next 10 days, along with worst-case and best-case bounds.Results: Overall, the models resulted in good predictions of the required number of beds across different hospital wards. Short-term predictions were especially accurate as these are less sensitive to a sudden increase or decrease in number of beds on a given ward. Code snippets and details on the set-up are provided to guide the reader to apply the planning tool on one’s own hospital data.Conclusions: We were able to achieve a fast setup of a planning tool useful within the COVID-19 pandemic, with a fair prediction on the needed capacity by ward type. This methodology can also be applied for other epidemics.

scholarly journals COVID-19 does not stop obstetrics: what we need to change to go on safely birthing. The experience of a University Obstetrics and Gynecology Department in Milan

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (9) ◽  
pp. 997-1000
Author(s):  
Nikita Alfieri ◽  
Stefano Manodoro ◽  
Anna Maria Marconi
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Obstetrics And Gynecology ◽  
Daily Routine ◽  
Clinical Services ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Set Up

AbstractSince SARS-COV-2 appeared in Wuhan City, China and rapidly spread throughout Europe, a real revolution occurred in the daily routine and in the organization of the entire health system. While non-urgent clinical services have been reduced as far as possible, all kind of specialists turned into COVID-19 specialists. Obstetric assistance cannot be suspended and, at the same time, safety must be guaranteed. In addition, as COVID-19 positive pregnant patients require additional care, some of the clinical habits need to be changed to face emerging needs for a vulnerable but unstoppable kind of patients. We report the management set up in an Obstetrics and Gynecology Unit during the COVID-19 era in a University Hospital in Milan, Italy.

scholarly journals Validity of neuron-specific enolase as a prognostic tool in acute ischemic stroke in adults at Suez Canal University Hospital

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed H. Shash ◽  
Reda Abdelrazek ◽  
Nashwa M. Abdelgeleel ◽  
Rasha M. Ahmed ◽  
Adel H. El-baih
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Serum Level ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Cell Damage ◽  
Neuron Specific Enolase ◽  
Clinical Severity ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Prediction Of Mortality ◽  
Death Group

Abstract Background Biological markers of acute nerve cell damage can assist in the outcome of acute ischemic stroke, such as neuron-specific enolase (NSE) that have been tested for association with initial severity of stroke, extent of infarction, and functional outcome. Objective To determine short-term prognostic value of the biochemical marker neuron-specific enolase (NSE) in acute ischemic stroke. Methods A cohort study carried out on 37 patients with acute ischemic stroke. Data were gathered in a prepared data sheet. Initial serum NSE level was measured to the patients in the Emergency department within 6 h of the onset of stroke and another measurement after 48 h. National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) was held to the patients at presentation and after 28 days of stroke to determine short-term morbidity and mortality. Results Out of the 37 patients, 31 patients survived (no-death group) and 6 patients died (death group). The mean serum level of neuron-specific enolase at presentation and after 48 h was significantly higher in the death group than in the no-death group. There was a statistically significant positive correlation between neuron-specific enolase (NSE) serum level and clinical severity of stroke (NIHSS) among the patients at presentation (r = 0.737, p = 0.000). Conclusion Neuron-specific enolase (NSE) can be applied as single independent marker for prediction of mortality and short-term morbidity in ischemic stroke patients.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in conflict border regions: a case of South Kordofan, Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quraish Sserwanja ◽  
Mohammed Bashir Adam ◽  
Joseph Kawuki ◽  
Emmanuel Olal
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
Non Governmental Organizations ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
Displaced People ◽  
Set Up ◽  
One Year ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
South Kordofan

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Sudan on 13 March 2020. Since then, Sudan has experienced one of the highest rates of COVID-19 spread and fatalities in Africa. One year later, as per 22 March 2021, Sudan had registered 29,661 confirmed cases and 2,028 deaths with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 6.8 %. By 12 December 2020, of the 18 states in Sudan, South Kordofan had the fifth highest CFR of 17.4 %, only surpassed by the other conflict affected North (57.5 %), Central (50.0 %) and East (31.8 %) Darfur States. By late March 2021, just three months from December 2020, the number of cases in South Kordofan increased by 100 %, but with a significant decline in the CFR from 17.4 to 8.5 %. South Kordofan is home to over 200,000 poor and displaced people from years of destructive civil unrests. To date, several localities such as the Nubba mountains region remain under rebel control and are not accessible. South Kordofan State Ministry of Health in collaboration with the federal government and non-governmental organizations set up four isolation centres with 40 total bed capacity, but with only two mechanical ventilators and no testing centre. There is still need for further multi-sectoral coalition and equitable allocation of resources to strengthen the health systems of rural and conflict affected regions. This article aims at providing insight into the current state of COVID-19 in South Kordofan amidst the second wave to address the dearth of COVID-19 information in rural and conflict affected regions.

scholarly journals Short-term adoption rates for a web-based portal within the intranet of a hospital information system

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. e100004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios Kotoulas ◽  
Ioannis Stratis ◽  
Theodoros Goumenidis ◽  
George Lambrou ◽  
Dimitrios - Dionysios Koutsouris
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Resistance To Change ◽  
Content Management ◽  
Healthcare Management ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Greek Hospital ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Free Open Source

ObjectiveAn intranet portal that combines cost-free, open-source software technology with easy set-up features can be beneficial for daily hospital processes. We describe the short-term adoption rates of a costless content management system (CMS) in the intranet of a tertiary Greek hospital.DesignDashboard statistics of our CMS platform were the implementation assessment of our system.ResultsIn a period of 10 months of running the software, the results indicate the employees overcame ‘Resistance to Change’ status. The average growth rate of end users who exploit the portal services is calculated as 2.73 every 3.3 months.ConclusionWe found our intranet web-based portal to be acceptable and helpful so far. Exploitation of an open-source CMS within the hospital intranet can influence healthcare management and the employees’ way of working as well.

scholarly journals Interregional Transfers for Pandemic Surges

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth A Michelson ◽  
Chris A Rees ◽  
Jayshree Sarathy ◽  
Paige VonAchen ◽  
Michael Wornow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Hospital Inpatient ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Icu Patients ◽  
Interregional Transfers ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
Model Scenarios ◽  
Do So

Abstract Background Hospital inpatient and intensive care unit (ICU) bed shortfalls may arise due to regional surges in volume. We sought to determine how interregional transfers could alleviate bed shortfalls during a pandemic. Methods We used estimates of past and projected inpatient and ICU cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from 4 February 2020 to 1 October 2020. For regions with bed shortfalls (where the number of patients exceeded bed capacity), transfers to the nearest region with unused beds were simulated using an algorithm that minimized total interregional transfer distances across the United States. Model scenarios used a range of predicted COVID-19 volumes (lower, mean, and upper bounds) and non–COVID-19 volumes (20%, 50%, or 80% of baseline hospital volumes). Scenarios were created for each day of data, and worst-case scenarios were created treating all regions’ peak volumes as simultaneous. Mean per-patient transfer distances were calculated by scenario. Results For the worst-case scenarios, national bed shortfalls ranged from 669 to 58 562 inpatient beds and 3208 to 31 190 ICU beds, depending on model volume parameters. Mean transfer distances to alleviate daily bed shortfalls ranged from 23 to 352 miles for inpatient and 28 to 423 miles for ICU patients, depending on volume. Under all worst-case scenarios except the highest-volume ICU scenario, interregional transfers could fully resolve bed shortfalls. To do so, mean transfer distances would be 24 to 405 miles for inpatients and 73 to 476 miles for ICU patients. Conclusions Interregional transfers could mitigate regional bed shortfalls during pandemic hospital surges.

Application of Tailored Heat Treated Blanks under Quasi Series Conditions

2007 ◽  
Vol 344 ◽  
pp. 383-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Merklein ◽  
Uwe Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Heat Treatment ◽  
Local Heat ◽  
Strength Distribution ◽  
Process Window ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forming Process ◽  
Heat Treated ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact

Tailored Heat Treated Blanks (THTB) are blanks that exhibit locally different strength specifically optimized for the succeeding forming process. The strength distribution is set by a local, short-term heat treatment modifying the mechanical properties of the material. Hence, THTB allow enhancing forming limits significantly leading to shorter and more robust manufacture process chains. In order to qualify the use of THTB under quasi series conditions, the interdependencies of the blank’s local heat treatment and the entire process chain of the car body manufacture have to be analyzed. In this respect, the impact of a short-term heat treatment on the mechanical properties of AA6181PX, a commonly used aluminum alloy in today’s car bodies, was studied. Also the influence of a short-term heat treatment on the coil lubricant, usually already applied by the material supplier, was given a closer look. Based on these experiments process restrictions for the application of THTB in an industrial automotive environment were derived and a process window for the THTB design was set up. In conclusion, strategies were defined how to enhance the found process boundaries leading to a more robust process window.

scholarly journals Use of GnRH for Synchronization of the Follicular Wave in Assisted Reproductive Technologies in Sheep: A Preliminary Study

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1208
Author(s):  
Aina Año-Perello ◽  
Zurisaday Santos-Jimenez ◽  
Teresa Encinas ◽  
Paula Martinez-Ros ◽  
Antonio Gonzalez-Bulnes
Keyword(s):  
Luteinizing Hormone ◽  
Assisted Reproductive Technologies ◽  
Ovarian Response ◽  
Reproductive Technologies ◽  
Estrus Synchronization ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Follicular Wave ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Cost Efficient ◽  
Set Up

The present study aimed to set up a short-term protocol for synchronization of follicular wave emergence in sheep, concomitant with estrus synchronization, which would improve ovarian response in assisted reproductive technologies. Administration of a single GnRH dose, concomitant with the insertion of a progesterone-loaded CIDR device, caused regression of gonadotrophin-dependent follicles ≥4 mm in all the GnRH-treated sheep and in around 80% of the controls treated only with CIDR (p < 0.05). Similar percentages of ewes lost all follicles (around 70%) or only the largest one (around 30%) in both groups. Hence, 54.1% and 70% of the sheep lost all large follicles and initiated a new follicular wave in the control and GnRH groups, respectively (p < 0.05). The remaining sheep showed follicles that were still not dependent of luteinizing hormone (LH). So, in fact, all the sheep had non-dominant follicles after treatment. In conclusion, a treatment including GnRH at CIDR insertion would offer a time- and cost-efficient protocol for inducing follicular turnover and synchronizing a new follicular wave at any stage of the estrous cycle.

The use of bedside chest radiography at a university hospital. Data on a two-week period

2012 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. e260-e263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandra Delnevo ◽  
Stefania Tritella ◽  
Luca Alessandro Carbonaro ◽  
Oxana Bobrechova ◽  
Giovanni Di Leo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chest Radiography ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Hospital Data

scholarly journals A Framework for Property Developers to Survive in a Recession

10.29007/cfr2 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zunoon Parambath ◽  
Nilupa Udawatta
Keyword(s):  
Survival Strategies ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Property Development ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Set Up ◽  
High Level ◽  
Property Developers

Recession is considered as a major threat to the economy as it slows down economic activities. The property development sector is extremely responsive to these economic conditions. Thus, it is crucial to understand causes, effects and strategies for property developers to survive in a recession without any ill effects. Thus, this research aimed to develop a framework for property developers to identify appropriate survival strategies in recession. A comprehensive literature review was conducted in this research to achieve the above mentioned aim. The results of this study indicated that recession prompts negative impacts on property development sector resulting in unemployment, lower demand, production and revenue, decline in resources and high level of competition. According to the results, the survival strategies were classified into short-term and long-term strategies. The short term strategies include: implementing management tactics, cut down of operating costs, keeping financing lines set up, timely repayment of debts, setting vital new objectives for the future, undertaking shorter time span developments, specialisation in favoured market, renegotiating deals and contracts. The long-term strategies include retrenchment, restructuring, investment and ambidextrous strategies. Similarly, attention should be paid to predict any changes in the economic environment that can influence property development activities and it is necessary to carefully evaluate investment activities to increase sales, profits and market shares of property developers. Preparing for a crisis is doubtlessly the ideal approach as it can facilitate both survival and growth. Thus, the property developers can implement these suggested strategies in their businesses to enhance their practices.

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