Competing risk events determining probability of cause-specific failure in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 10082-10082
Author(s):  
Y. Huang ◽  
B. Zee ◽  
M. Lam ◽  
P. Teo
Keyword(s):  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Distant Metastasis ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Competing Risk Analysis ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Competing Events ◽  
Regional Failure ◽  
Failure Types

10082 Background: The commonly employed Kaplan-Meier (KM) method is based on the assumption that different failure types (local-regional, distant, etc.) are independent. In reality, these failures occur at different stages in disease progression and are strongly correlated with each other. The assumption of independence of different failure types may violate certain assumptions in the modeling, and hence may affect the clinical interpretation and treatment selection. A better approach to estimate cause-specific failure probability is to calculate cumulative incidence rates by taking into account other events within a competing risk framework, in which the dependency of different failures are considered. Methods: The data was based on a large retrospective cohort study conducted at the Prince of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong, China, in 1996–97. 945 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) had been treated with a standard protocol and been followed up regularly with a median follow-up period of 69 months (1–122 months). We calculated the cumulative incidence rates of local-regional failure and distant metastasis, and compared the result against KM method. In competing risk analysis, local regional failure, distant metastases and death were considered as competing events during the remaining lifetime of NPC patients from first presentation. Results: The probability of local-regional failure and distant metastasis was higher by KM method than by competing risk method. The result indicated that KM analysis overestimated event rate and the difference became larger in a longer follow-up period, when more competing events occurred. Conclusion: Kaplan-Meier analysis overestimates the probability of cause-specific failure. Competing risk analysis provides us a more accurate method in the determination of the pattern of failure. It provides better evidence to clinicians to enable them to predict the prognosis and select proper therapy. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.

scholarly journals Bayesian competing risk analysis: An application to nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients data

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar Saroj ◽  
K. Narasimha Murthy ◽  
Mukesh Kumar ◽  
Atanu Bhattacharjee ◽  
Kamalesh Kumar Patel
Keyword(s):  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Competing Risk Analysis

scholarly journals Plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a prospective seropositive population

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Jie Chen ◽  
Wen-Na Xu ◽  
Hai-Yun Wang ◽  
Xiao-Xia Chen ◽  
Xue-Qi Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Epstein Barr Virus ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Barr Virus ◽  
Ebv Dna ◽  
Epstein Barr

Abstract Objective Plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA is considered a biomarker for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, its long-term role in NPC development is unclear. Materials and methods A total of 1363 participants seropositive for EBV VCA-IgA and EBNA1-IgA in a community-based NPC screening program in southern China were tested for plasma EBV DNA levels by real-time qPCR between 2008 and 2015. New NPC cases were confirmed by active follow-up approach and linkage to local cancer registry through the end of 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for NPC risk with plasma EBV DNA. Results Thirty patients were newly diagnosed during a median 7.5 years follow-up. NPC incidence increased with the plasma EBV DNA load ranging from 281.46 to 10,074.47 per 100,000 person-years in participants with undetectable and ≥ 1000 copies/ml levels; the corresponding cumulative incidence rates were 1.73 and 50%. Furthermore, plasma EBV DNA loads conferred an independent risk for NPC development after adjustment for other risk factors, with HRs of 7.63 for > 3–999 copies/ml and 39.79 for ≥1000 copies/ml. However, the HRs decreased gradually after excluding NPC cases detected in the first 2 to 3 years and became statistically nonsignificant by excluding cases detected during the first 4 years. Conclusion Elevated plasma EBV DNA can predict NPC risk over 3 years. Monitoring plasma EBV DNA can be used as a complementary approach to EBV serological antibody-based screening for NPC.

Atrial fibrillation associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolism

2015 ◽  
Vol 113 (01) ◽  
pp. 185-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Cheng Wang ◽  
Cheng-Li Lin ◽  
Guei-Jane Wang ◽  
Chiz-Tzung Chang ◽  
Fung-Chang Sung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Vein Thrombosis ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Deep Vein

SummaryWhether atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains controversial. From Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 (LHID2000), we identified 11,458 patients newly diagnosed with AF. The comparison group comprised 45,637 patients without AF. Both cohorts were followed up to measure the incidence of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Univariable and multivariable competing-risks regression model and Kaplan-Meier analyses with the use of Aelon-Johansen estimator were used to measure the differences of cumulative incidences of DVT and PE, respectively. The overall incidence rates (per 1,000 person-years) of DVT and PE between the AF group and non-AF groups were 2.69 vs 1.12 (crude hazard ratio [HR] = 1.92; 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.54-2.39), 1.55 vs 0.46 (crude HR = 2.68; 95 % CI = 1.97-3.64), respectively. The baseline demographics indicated that the members of the AF group demonstrated a significantly older age and higher proportions of comorbidities than non-AF group. After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the risks of DVT and PE remained significantly elevated in the AF group compared with the non-AF group (adjusted HR = 1.74; 95 %CI = 1.36-2.24, adjusted HR = 2.18; 95 %CI = 1.51-3.15, respectively). The Kaplan-Meier curve with the use of Aelon-Johansen estimator indicated that the cumulative incidences of DVT and PE were both more significantly elevated in the AF group than in the non-AF group after a long-term follow-up period (p<0.01). In conclusion, the presence of AF is associated with increased risk of VTE after a long-term follow-up period.

Survival, Prognostic Factors, and Rates of Leukemic Transformation in a Multicenter Study of 303 Untreated Patients with MDS and Del(5q).

Blood ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (22) ◽  
pp. 945-945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Germing ◽  
Michael Lauseker ◽  
Barbara Hildebrandt ◽  
Argiris Symeonidis ◽  
Jaroslav Cermak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Median Survival ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Refractory Anemia ◽  
Red Cell ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Red Cell Transfusion

Abstract Abstract 945 In 2001, the WHO defined the category MDS with del(5q) due to unique cytogenetic, morphologic, hematologic, clinical, prognostic and therapeutic features. The survival of these patients, as well as patients with refractory cytopenia with unilineage dysplasia (RCUD) and refractory anemia with ring sideroblasts is favorable in comparison to other MDS types. Data on disease progression to a more advanced MDS category or to acute leukemia (AML) are sparse and have not been examined in detail. In order to address this issue we collated data of all patients with MDS and del(5q) characterized by low or intermediate-1 IPSS risk score that had been included into various collaborating MDS registries. Patients were followed from diagnosis and data on cell counts, transfusion dependency, and MDS progression were documented. No patients received treatment other than best supportive care. The status of 62 patients was censored at the time of the initiation of Lenalidomide therapy. AML progression was defined as >20% marrow blasts. Estimates of survival probability were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. The cumulative incidence of progression to AML was calculated both with the Kaplan-Meier method and with the competing risk method where “death without progression to AML” is considered as competing event, not as censoring. For both events the cumulative incidences are estimated simultaneously. This method has the advantage that it takes into account that there is a difference between end of follow-up and death. Depending on the number of competing events, the curves are lower than those calculated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. We identified 303 patients, median age at diagnosis 65 years (28-91), 71% were females. Median follow up time was 3 years. Median survival was 71.5 months. Patients with del(5q) as a sole chromosomal aberration had a median survival of 73 months as compared to 19.3 months in patients with more than 1 additional aberrations. Patients who had red cell transfusion need at diagnosis had a median survival of 39 months vs. 97 months in transfusion independent patients (p=0.00005). Transfusion need at diagnosis was the most important parameter for survival. Patients in the WPSS very low risk group had a median survival of 107 months, as compared to 73 and 56 months in the low and intermediate risk group and 37 months in the high risk group. 44 of the 303 patients (15%) progressed to AML (>20% marrow blasts). The cumulative AML progression rate calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method was 7% at 2 years and 18.2% at 5 years. The cumulative risk of AML progression calculated with the competing risk method was 6.6% at 2 years and 15.1% at 5 years. Factors associated with the risk of AML transformation were intermediate-I IPSS risk and high risk WPSS score, marrow blast count >5%, and red-cell transfusion need at diagnosis. Survival and progression rates did not differ among the participating centers. In conclusion, survival of patients with MDS and del(5q) is high and is comparable to patients with RCUD and RARS, but is associated with a risk of AML-transformation similar to RCMD without del(5q). Further cytogenetic and molecular studies are warranted in order to identify patients at greater risk of progression. Disclosures: Germing: Novartis, Celgene: Honoraria, Research Funding. Lauseker:Celgene: Research Funding. Hildebrandt:Celgene: Research Funding. Symeonidis:Celgene: Research Funding. Cermak:Celgene: Research Funding. Pfeilstöcker:Celgene: Research Funding. Nösslinger:Celgene: Research Funding. Sekeres:Celgene: Research Funding. Maciejewski:Celgene: Research Funding. Haase:Celgene: Research Funding. Schanz:Celgene: Research Funding. Seymour:Celgene: Research Funding. Weide:Celgene: Research Funding. Lübbert:Celgene: Research Funding. Platzbecker:Celgene: Research Funding. Valent:Celgene: Research Funding. Götze:Celgene: Research Funding. Stauder:Celgene: Research Funding. Blum:Celgene: Research Funding. Kreuzer:Celgene: Research Funding. Schlenk:Celgene: Research Funding. Aul:Celgene: Research Funding. Kündgen:Celgene: Research Funding. Hasford:Celgene: Research Funding. Giagounidis:Celgene: Research Funding.

scholarly journals Circulating Plasma Epstein–Barr virus DNA Load During the Follow-up Periods Predicts Recurrence and Metastasis in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sha-sha He ◽  
Yun-ying Yang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Yu-feng Ren ◽  
Cheng-tao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Epstein Barr Virus ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Barr Virus ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Ebv Dna ◽  
Epstein Barr ◽  
Landmark Analyses ◽  
Predictive Indicator

Abstract PURPOSE Epstein Barr virus DNA (EBV DNA) load has been identified as a prognostic factor in nasopharyngeal carcinoma, while the dynamic changes in the long period have not been explored. In this study, we evaluated EBV DNA kinetics and its role in the survival. METHODS We conducted a retrospective review of 900 NPC patients. Plasma EBV DNA levels were measured at various time points after treatment. The correlations of EBV kinetics with recurrence and metastasis were analyzed. After stratifying patients according to the EBV results, survival was compared using Kaplan–Meier estimates. 12 and 24-month landmark analyses for OS data were performed according to the EBV groups. RESULTS Patients with post-EBV < 2,500 copies/mL achieved better survival than the higher ones. Furthermore, patients with continuously elevated EBV DNA had significantly poorer OS (HR: 2.542, 95%CI: 2.077–3.111, P < 0.001), DMFS (HR: 2.970, 95%CI: 2.392–3.687, P < 0.001), LRFS (HR: 1.699, 95%CI: 1.072–2.692, P = 0.013), and PFS (HR:2.535, 95%CI: 1.987–3.233, P < 0.001) than patients with continuously normal EBV or those with elevated levels at any time-point. The 5-year OS with elevated EBV was lower than the remission group by the 12 and 24-month landmark analysis. CONCLUSIONS Elevated EBV DNA after treatment was a better predictive indicator of survival than the baseline concentrations. Furthermore, continuously elevated EBV DNA after treatment indicated recurrence, metastasis and unfavorable prognosis for NPC. In addition, EBV DNA was predictable no matter how long the follow-up time.

Detection of Epstein-Barr Virus DNA in the Peripheral-Blood Cells of Patients With Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Relationship to Distant Metastasis and Survival

2001 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 2607-2615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Ching Lin ◽  
Kuang Y. Chen ◽  
Wen-Yi Wang ◽  
Jian-Sheng Jan ◽  
Wen-Miin Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Distant Metastasis ◽  
Peripheral Blood ◽  
Blood Cells ◽  
Epstein Barr Virus ◽  
Peripheral Blood Cells ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Barr Virus ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Epstein Barr

PURPOSE: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has been proved to be an Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated cancer. By use of nested polymerase chain reactions (PCRs), we examined whether the presence of EBV DNA in the peripheral-blood cells (PBC) can serve as a prognostic indicator for NPC.PATIENTS AND METHODS: Peripheral blood from 124 patients with NPC who had no evidence of distant metastasis and 114 healthy volunteers with serologically positive findings for EBV infection was collected prospectively. Plasma and erythrocytes were separated. DNA was extracted from PBCs and analyzed by a nested PCR using primers specific to Epstein-Barr virus nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1). All patients were treated by radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy. Clinical parameters and status of EBNA-1 in PBCs were used for survival analysis using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model.RESULTS: Positive rates of EBNA-1 DNA in PBCs of NPC patients and healthy volunteers are 71% and 14%, respectively (P = .001). No significant difference was observed with regard to the clinical characteristics of patients who were EBNA-1–positive (n = 88) and those who were EBNA-1–negative (n = 36). After a median follow-up period of 38 months (range, 24 to 56 months), 29 of 88 EBNA-1–positive patients and only one of 36 EBNA-1–negative patients developed distant metastases (P = .00015). Kaplan-Meier estimates of overall survival (P = .0010), metastasis-free survival (P = .0004), and progression-free survival (P = .0004) were significantly lower for the patients in the EBNA-1–positive group than for those in the EBNA-1–negative group. Multivariate Cox analysis confirmed the same results.CONCLUSION: The presence of EBNA-1 DNA in PBCs is a novel, important risk factor for patients with NPC that indicates a significantly higher risk of developing distant metastasis as well as a lower survival rate.

scholarly journals Risk Factors of Mortality from All Asbestos-Related Diseases: A Competing Risk Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Abós-Herràndiz ◽  
Teresa Rodriguez-Blanco ◽  
Isabel Garcia-Allas ◽  
Isabel-Magdalena Rosell-Murphy ◽  
Constança Albertí-Casas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Competing Risk Analysis ◽  
Subdistribution Hazard ◽  
Related Disease ◽  
Asbestos Related Disease

Background. The mortality from all malignant and nonmalignant asbestos-related diseases remains unknown. The authors assessed the incidence and risk factors for all asbestos-related deaths. Methods. The sample included 544 patients from an asbestos-exposed community in the area of Barcelona (Spain), between Jan 1, 1970, and Dec 31, 2006. Competing risk regression through a subdistribution hazard analysis was used to estimate risk factors for the outcomes. Results. Asbestos-related deaths were observed in 167 (30.7%) patients and 57.5% of these deaths were caused by some type of mesothelioma. The incidence rate after diagnosis was 3,600 per 100,000 person-years. In 7.5% of patients death was non-asbestos-related, while pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma were identified in 87 (16.0%) and 18 (3.3%) patients, respectively. Conclusions. Age, sex, household exposure, cumulative nonmalignant asbestos-related disease, and single malignant pathology were identified as risk factors for asbestos-related death. These findings suggest the need to develop a preventive approach to the community and to improve the clinical follow-up process of these patients.

scholarly journals Association Between Digoxin Use and Cancer Incidence: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study With Competing Risk Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Jung Tai ◽  
Yi-Hsin Yang ◽  
Tzyy-Guey Tseng ◽  
Fang-Rong Chang ◽  
Hui-Chun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Cancer Prevention ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Research Database ◽  
Competing Risk Analysis ◽  
Β Blocker

Background: Previous studies neglected death as a critical competing risk while estimating the cancer risk for digoxin users. Therefore, the current study aims to assess the effectiveness of digoxin on cancer prevention by competing risk analysis.Methods: We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research database between 1998 and 2010. After one-to-one propensity score-matching from 36,160 patients with defined criteria, we enrolled 758 patients both in digoxin and β-blocker group for further analysis.Results: The results showed that the digoxin group had higher all-cause mortality than the β-blocker group in the 4- year (10.4 vs. 4.9%) and 8 years (13.6 vs. 7.0%) follow-up. The subdistribution HR of cancer incidence in the digoxin group compared to the β-blocker group was 1.99 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22–3.01) and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.01–2.15) in the 4 years and 8 years follow-up, respectively.Conclusions: The result of our study showed the usage of digoxin has no benefit in cancer prevention compared with β-blocker. The possibility of β-blocker as a new drug candidate for cancer prevention needs further clinical evaluation. The current study also emphasized the necessity of competing risk analysis applying to similar clinical researches.

scholarly journals RBC Alloimmunization Burden Is High in Regularly RBC-Transfused Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Patients: A Report from South Australian-MDS Registry

Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 3562-3562
Author(s):  
Deepak Singhal ◽  
Sophia Hague ◽  
David Roxby ◽  
L Amilia Wee ◽  
Oi-Lin Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Board Of Directors ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Competing Risk Analysis ◽  
Advisory Committees ◽  
Rbc Transfusion

Abstract Introduction: Anemia is one of the commonest presenting features of MDS and approximately 30-40% of patients require regular RBC-transfusion. RBC-transfusion dependency (RBC-TD) is a poor-prognostic factor independent of revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) (Hiwase et al ASH 2014). Although RBC transfusion increases the risk of alloimmunization, there is limited literature characterizing this risk in MDS patients as compared to other hematological disorders (such as thalassemia). Methods: This retrospective study assessed the alloimmunization rate in 784 MDS and AML (20-30% blasts) patients registered in the South Australian-MDS registry (SA-MDS registry) between 1991 and 2015. RBC-TD was defined as ≥1 unit of RBC transfused every eight weeks for four months according to WHO based Prognostic Scoring System. The cumulative incidence of RBC-alloimmunization was calculated using competing risk analysis (death being the competing risk). Factors associated with increased rate of RBC antibody formation were investigated by Cox regression analysis. Results: The median age of the 784 patients at diagnosis was 75 years with 66% males. The estimated median follow up time was 7.3 years. 70% of patients (549/784) were diagnosed with primary MDS, while the remaining patients were diagnosed with AML (20-30% blasts; n=57), CMML (n=91) or therapy-related myeloid neoplasm (T-MN; n=87). At last follow-up 30% patients were alive, 67% were deceased and 3% were lost to follow-up. During the study period, 658 (84%) patients required ≥1 unit of RBC transfusion and median RBC units transfused were 29 (range 0-708). The WPSS definition of RBC-TD was met in 47% (366/784 patients), while 36% (282/784) patients required intermittent RBC-transfusions (RBC-TI). During follow up, 83 (13%) patients formed 155 RBC-alloantibodies and 50% of these cases (42/83) developed >1 RBC-alloantibody. Autoantibodies were also detected in 31 cases, mainly in association with RBC-alloantibodies (n=27; complex alloimmunization) while 4 cases had only autoantibodies. Interestingly, in 19/27 of cases autoantibodies were detected only after alloimmunization. The pathophysiologic mechanism of this remains unclear. The most common alloantibody specificities were Rh (57%) and Kell (21%) (Table 1). The median interval between 1st RBC transfusion and antibody detection was 10 (0.2-225) months. In 9 cases (6 females) alloantibodies were detected prior to the 1st unit of RBC-transfused. The incidence of RBC alloimmunization reached a plateau at 16% by 100 units of RBC (Fig. 1A), however 80% of antibodies were detectable by 30-40 RBC units transfused. It indicates that most "responders" will form antibodies during the first 30-40 units of RBC transfused. Since most chronically transfused MDS patients do not form RBC alloantibodies it is important from a clinical and resource-utilization standpoint to identify who is at greatest risk of RBC alloimmunization. Multivariate analysis using Cox-regression model was performed. The only factor which was associated with significantly higher risk of RBC alloimmunization was RBC-TD (HR 2.52; p=0.0005). Age, sex, IPSS-R category and number of RBC units transfused did not independently predict alloimmunization rate. Using competing risk analysis, the cumulative incidence of RBC-alloimmunization was significantly higher in RBC-TD group compared to RBC-TI group (p=0.0004; Fig. 1B). Conclusion: RBC-alloimmunization is a substantial risk in MDS patients, especially in RBC-transfusion dependent cases. Extended phenotype matching (D,C,c,E,e and Kell) could have prevented alloantibody formation in 79% of alloimmunized MDS patients. Table 1. Specificity of 155 RBC-alloantibodies Table 1. Specificity of 155 RBC-alloantibodies Disclosures Yeung: Ariad: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; BMS: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding.

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