Final results of the randomized phase III trial of sorafenib in advanced renal cell carcinoma: Survival and biomarker analysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 5023-5023 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. Bukowski ◽  
T. Eisen ◽  
C. Szczylik ◽  
W. M. Stadler ◽  
R. Simantov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Vegf Signaling ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Biomarker Analysis ◽  
Tumor Biopsies

5023 Background: Based on the significant PFS benefit of sorafenib (SOR) vs placebo (P) in a Phase III advanced RCC trial, P patients were unblinded and crossed over to SOR in May 2005. Final OS and biomarker data are reported. Methods: Final OS analysis was planned at ∼540 events (a=0.037 after adjusting for previous analyses). To minimize effect of crossover on OS, a secondary analysis was planned censoring P data on June 30, 2005 (a=0.037). Plasma VEGF and sVEGFR2 were measured by ELISA at baseline (BL), cycle (C) 1 day (D) 21, and C3D1. pERK was assayed by IHC. Results: 903 patients were randomized (SOR, 451; P, 452). The only OS analysis before crossover (May 2005) showed an estimated 39% OS improvement for SOR vs P (HR=0.72; p=0.018) (ECCO 2005); 216 P patients had crossed to SOR. OS analysis 6 months after crossover (Nov 2005) showed a 30% improvement in OS for SOR vs P (HR=0.77, p=0.015) (ASCO 2006). These OS differences did not reach prespecified O’Brien-Fleming statistical boundaries. Final OS (Sep 2006) at 561 deaths showed an improvement of 13.5% for SOR vs P and was not significant (median 17.8 vs 15.2 months; HR=0.88; p=0.146; a=0.037). Secondary analysis censoring P data (June 2005) showed a significant OS benefit for SOR vs P (HR=0.78, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.97; p=0.0287; a=0.037), suggesting crossover had confounded OS. Changes in VEGF (n=712) and sVEGFR2 (n=717) were observed after SOR treatment (AACR 2006); VEGF increased 32% (n=279) at C1D21 and 47% (n=203) at C3D1, and sVEGFR2 decreased 18% (n=282) and 24% (n=206). Using a COX proportional hazards model, BL VEGF was an independent prognostic factor (p=0.014); patients with high BL VEGF (>131 pg/ml) had poorer prognosis and a trend towards greater PFS benefit with SOR (SOR vs P, HR=0.48 vs 0.64 for high vs low VEGF, p=0.096). BL sVEGFR2, changes in VEGF or sVEGFR2 at C1D21, and pERK levels in limited diagnostic tumor biopsies were not predictive of SOR response. Conclusion: SOR demonstrated a PFS benefit in advanced RCC, although ITT final OS analysis showed a confounding effect of crossover. Significant OS benefit of SOR was seen in a planned secondary analysis adjusting for crossover. VEGF levels have prognostic importance, and SOR-associated changes in VEGF and sVEGFR2 are consistent with inhibition of VEGF signaling. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

CA19-9 decrease at 8 weeks as a predictor of overall survival (OS) in a randomized phase III trial (MPACT) of weekly nab-paclitaxel (nab-P) plus gemcitabine (G) versus G alone in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC).

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4058-4058 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gabriela Chiorean ◽  
Daniel D. Von Hoff ◽  
Thomas J. Ervin ◽  
Francis P. Arena ◽  
Jeffrey R. Infante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
To Receive ◽  
The Relationship

4058^ Background: nab-P + G showed promising efficacy in a phase I/II study in MPC, and decreases in CA19-9 correlated with OS. In MPACT, patients (pts) who received nab-P + G vs G had improved median OS (8.5 vs 6.7 mo; HR 0.72; p = 0.000015), PFS (5.5 vs 3.7 mo; HR 0.69; p = 0.000024) and ORR (23% vs 7%; p = 1.1 × 10−10). Here we present a prespecified exploratory analysis of CA19-9 from the MPACT trial. Methods: 861 previously untreated pts with MPC were randomized 1:1 to receive nab-P 125 mg/m2 + G 1000 mg/m2 days 1, 8, and 15 every 4 weeks or G alone 1000 mg/m2 weekly for 7 weeks followed by a week of rest (cycle 1) and then days 1, 8, and 15 every 4 weeks (cycle ≥ 2). CA19-9 was evaluated at baseline and then every 8 weeks. OS comparisons at different CA19-9 criteria were performed by stratified Cox proportional hazards model (P by stratified log-rank test using randomization criteria). Results: 750 pts had an evaluable CA19-9 at baseline. More pts in the nab-P + G arm vs the G arm demonstrated a best CA19-9 decrease from baseline of ≥ 20% and ≥ 90% (61% vs 44% and 31% vs 14%, respectively; Table). At the first postbaseline assessment (week 8), greater proportions of pts in the nab-P + G arm vs the G arm had CA19-9 decreases of ≥ 20% and ≥ 90% (Table). At that time point, for pts with a decrease of ≥ 20% in CA19-9, nab-P + G demonstrated a significantly longer OS vs G. The risk reduction for pts with a ≥ 90% decrease was greater than in pts with a ≥ 20% decrease. In pts with an 8-week CA19-9 decrease < 20%, median OS for nab-P + G vs G was 8.3 vs 8.0 mo (HR 0.92; p = 0.705). The relationship of CA19-9 kinetics with OS will also be examined. Conclusions: Higher proportions of pts in the nab-P + G arm had CA 19-9 responses of ≥ 20% and ≥ 90% vs the G arm. Pts who achieved a CA19-9 decrease at 8 weeks of ≥ 20% or ≥ 90% had significantly longer OS with nab-P + G than with G. Clinical trial information: NCT00844649. [Table: see text]

Updated overall survival (OS) results from the phase III MONALEESA-3 trial of postmenopausal patients (pts) with HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer (ABC) treated with fulvestrant (FUL) ± ribociclib (RIB).

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1001-1001
Author(s):  
Dennis J. Slamon ◽  
Patrick Neven ◽  
Stephen K. L. Chia ◽  
Guy Heinrich Maria Jerusalem ◽  
Michelino De Laurentiis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Progression Free Survival ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Hazards Model

1001 Background: The Phase III MONALEESA-3 trial (NCT02422615) previously demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in OS with RIB, a cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor (CDK4/6i), plus FUL compared with placebo (PBO) plus FUL as first-line (1L) or second-line (2L) treatment in postmenopausal pts with HR+/HER2− ABC (median, not reached vs 40.0 mo; hazard ratio [HR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57-0.92, P =.00455). This analysis was final per the protocol; following the unblinding of the study, pts still on study treatment in the PBO arm were allowed to cross over to the RIB arm. We report an exploratory analysis of OS after an additional median 16.9 mo of follow-up, allowing for further characterization of long-term survival benefits of RIB. Methods: Postmenopausal pts with HR+/HER2− ABC were randomized 2:1 to receive RIB + FUL or PBO + FUL in 1L and 2L settings. Updated OS was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards model and summarized using Kaplan-Meier methods. Additional postprogression endpoints such as progression-free survival 2 (PFS2), time to chemotherapy (CT), and CT-free survival were also evaluated and summarized. Results: At the data cutoff (Oct 30, 2020), the median follow-up was 56.3 mo (min, 52.7 mo) and 68 (14.0%) and 21 (8.7%) patients were still on treatment in the RIB vs PBO arms, respectively. With this extended follow-up, RIB + FUL continued to demonstrate an OS benefit vs PBO + FUL (median, 53.7 vs 41.5 mo; HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.59-0.90). RIB + FUL had prolonged OS vs PBO + FUL in the 1L (median, not reached vs 51.8 mo; HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.46-0.88) and 2L subgroups (median, 39.7 vs 33.7 mo; HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.59-1.04). Subgroup analyses also showed a consistent OS benefit compared with the intent-to-treat (ITT) population for most subgroups. PFS2, time to CT, and CT-free survival for the ITT population favored RIB + FUL (Table). Among pts who discontinued study treatment, 81.9% and 86.4% received a next-line subsequent antineoplastic therapy, while 14.0% and 30.0% received a CDK4/6i as any subsequent line in the RIB vs PBO arms, respectively. No new safety signals were observed. Conclusions: The previously demonstrated robust and clinically meaningful OS benefit with RIB + FUL compared with PBO + FUL was maintained after almost 5 years of follow-up in postmenopausal pts with HR+/HER2− ABC. The OS benefit of RIB was observed in the 1L and 2L subgroups, which further supports the use of RIB in these populations. The results also demonstrated a significant delay in the use of subsequent CT with RIB vs PBO. Clinical trial information: NCT02422615 .[Table: see text]

scholarly journals Tipifarnib As Maintenance Therapy in Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) Improves Survival in a Subgroup of Patients with High Risk Disease. Results of the Phase III Intergroup Trial E2902

Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 1308-1308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selina Luger ◽  
Victoria X Wang ◽  
Elisabeth Paietta ◽  
Rhett P. Ketterling ◽  
Witold Rybka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myeloid Leukemia ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Hematologic Toxicity ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Intergroup Trial ◽  
Acute Myeloid

Abstract The ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group Led Trial, E2902, was a randomized phase III North American Leukemia Intergroup trial of the Farnesyl Transferase Inhibitor , R115777(Tipifarnib), as maintenance therapy for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Patients (pts) with AML in remission after requiring salvage therapy (primary induction failure or second or subsequent remission) or over the age of 60 in first remission were eligible. Pts were eligible if they were in a complete remission (CR) or complete remission without platelet recovery (CRp) as confirmed by bone marrow examination within 2 weeks prior to randomization. Consolidation or post remission therapy prior to enrollment was allowed but not required. Pts who had received an allogeneic transplant in this remission were ineligible. Adequate blood counts (absolute neutrophil count >= 1000/mm3 and platelet count >=50,000/mm3), and normal renal, and hepatic function were required within 2 weeks of randomization. Pts were randomized to either receive tipifarnib twice daily (BID) or to observation. Pts were stratified by remission ( CR1 vs > CR1) and whether or not they received consolidation therapy in the current remission. The main objective of this study was to compare disease free survival(DFS) in the two groups. Between August 2004 and December 2009, 144 pts were accrued to the study. The median age of the pts was 69 (range 28-86). Seventy-three pts (51%) were male and 135 pts (94%) were white. The majority of pts enrolled on the study (70%) were in first CR, and had post remission chemotherapy (56%) prior to randomization. Seventy-three pts were enrolled onto the treatment arm (Arm A) and 71 pts were enrolled onto the observation arm (Arm B). When the study was initially opened, pts on Arm A were treated with tipifarnib at a dose of 400 mg BID with dose reductions and interruptions defined per protocol for toxicity. After the first planned interim analysis, based on toxicity data, the ECOG Data Monitoring Committee recommended that the starting dose be decreased to 300 mg BID. While non-hematologic toxicity was acceptable, significant hematologic toxicity was seen in pts treated at an initial dose of either 400 mg or 300 mg BID. Of note, hematologic toxicity was also seen on the observation arm although less frequently than with both treatment doses. The primary endpoint of the study was analysis of DFS on an intent to treat basis. The median DFS for arms A and B are 8.87 months and 5.26 months respectively ( p=0.058, HR 0.760). When restricted to eligible patients only(n=134 ), the DFS for arms A and B are 10.81 vs 5.26 months, respectively ( p=0.019, HR 0.690). An unplanned subgroup analysis was performed by gender. The median DFS for male pts (n=73) is 5.36 vs 5.91 months for arms A and B respectively (p=0.868, HR 1.320) and 12.09 vs 3.91 months for female pts (n=71)(p=0.0002, HR=0.408) In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to adjust for baseline clinical variables, there is a significant interaction between treatment and gender. (Table 1) Similar results were noted for OS (Figure 1). ECOG ACRIN Trial E2902 evaluated the potential role of Tipifarnib ( R115777) in patients with AML in remission with a high risk of relapse. While the primary endpoint for improved DFS was not reached when evaluating all randomized pts, when restricted to eligible patients only, there is a statistically significant improvement in DFS seen. Moreover, an unplanned subgroup analysis by gender demonstrates an improvement in DFS and OS for females who were enrolled on the study which persists on multivariate analysis. Possible explanations include the use of flat dosing rather than BSA based dosing on this study. However futher evaluation of patient and disease characteristics, dosing and toxicity profiles of responders and nonresponders is needed. Given what appears to be a potentially clinically relevant benefit, further evaluation of this agent is warranted. Table 1. Multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards Model for DFS: All Randomized Patients Hazard Ratio (95% CI) P value Arm B vs A 2.559(1.547,4.236) 0.00025 Male vs Female 2.005(1.228,3.274) 0.00544 CR1 vs >CR1 0.447 (0.305,0.656) 0.00004 Figure 1. (A) DFS (B) OS in Female Patients Figure 1. (A) DFS (B) OS in Female Patients Disclosures Rowe: BioSight Ltd.: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy; BioLineRx Ltd.: Consultancy. Larson:Astellas: Consultancy, Research Funding.

scholarly journals Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Farhadian ◽  
Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽  
Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽  
Hossein Mahjub
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

scholarly journals Elevated plasma growth and differentiation factor 15 predicts incident anemia in older adults aged 60 years and older

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuko Yamaguchi ◽  
Marta Zampino ◽  
Toshiko Tanaka ◽  
Stefania Bandinelli ◽  
Yusuke Osawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Differentiation Factor ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P&lt;.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.

scholarly journals Dementia Adjudication Triggers Associated With Increased Mortality for Older Australians: Evidence From ASPREE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 161-161
Author(s):  
Jane Banaszak-Holl ◽  
Xiaoping Lin ◽  
Jing Xie ◽  
Stephanie Ward ◽  
Henry Brodaty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Research Aims: This study seeks to understand whether those with dementia experience higher risk of death, using data from the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) clinical trial study. Methods: ASPREE was a primary intervention trial of low-dose aspirin among healthy older people. The Australian cohort included 16,703 dementia-free participants aged 70 years and over at enrolment. Participants were triggered for dementia adjudication if cognitive test results were poorer than expected, self-reporting dementia diagnosis or memory problems, or dementia medications were detected. Incidental dementia was adjudicated by an international adjudication committee using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria and results of a neuropsychological battery and functional measures with medical record substantiation. Statistical analyses used a cox proportional hazards model. Results: As previously reported, 1052 participants (5.5%) died during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up and 964 participants had a dementia trigger, of whom, 575 (60%) were adjucated as having dementia. Preliminary analyses has shown that the mortality rate was higher among participants with a dementia trigger, regardless of dementia adjudication outcome, than those without (15% vs 5%, Χ2 = 205, p &lt;.001). Conclusion: This study will provide important analyses of differences in the hazard ratio for mortality and causes of death among people with and without cognitive impairment and has important implications on service planning.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽  
Krzysztof Dmytrów
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

scholarly journals Association between milk and yogurt intake and mortality: a community-based cohort study (Yamagata study)

BMC Nutrition ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akiko Nakanishi ◽  
Erika Homma ◽  
Tsukasa Osaki ◽  
Ri Sho ◽  
Masayoshi Souri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Milk Intake ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

Abstract Background Dairy products are known as health-promoting foods. This study prospectively examined the association between milk and yogurt intake and mortality in a community-based population. Methods The study population comprised of 14,264 subjects aged 40–74 years who participated in an annual health checkup. The frequency of yogurt and milk intake was categorized as none (< 1/month), low (< 1/week), moderate (1–6/week), and high (> 1/day) intake. The association between yogurt and milk intake and total, cardiovascular, and cancer-related mortalities was determined using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results During the follow-up period, there were 265 total deaths, 40 cardiovascular deaths and 90 cancer-related deaths. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the total mortality in high/moderate/low yogurt intake and moderate/low milk intake groups was lower than that in none group (log-rank, P < 0.01). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis adjusted for possible confounders, the hazard ratio (HR) for total mortality significantly decreased in high/moderate yogurt intake group (HR: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42–0.91 for high intake, HR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.49–0.99 for moderate intake) and moderate milk intake group (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.46–0.97) compared with the none yogurt and milk intake groups. A similar association was observed for cancer-related mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Our study showed that yogurt and milk intake was independently associated with a decrease in total and cancer-related mortalities in the Japanese population.

scholarly journals Clinical impact of regression from sustained to paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Fujino ◽  
H Ogawa ◽  
S Ikeda ◽  
K Doi ◽  
Y Hamatani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Death ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Clinical Impact ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cardiac Events ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Adverse Cardiac Events

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly progresses from paroxysmal type to sustained type in the natural course of the disease, and we previously demonstrated that the progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events. There are some patients, though less frequently, who regress from sustained to paroxysmal AF, but the clinical impact of the regression of AF remains unknown. Purpose We sought to investigate whether regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF is associated with better clinical outcomes. Methods Using the dataset of the Fushimi AF Registry, patients who were diagnosed as sustained (persistent or permanent) AF at baseline were studied. Conversion of sustained AF to paroxysmal AF during follow-up was defined as regression of AF. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as the composite of cardiac death, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Event rates were compared between the patients with and without regression of AF. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, predictors of MACE were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. Results Among 2,253 patients who were diagnosed as sustained AF at baseline, regression of AF was observed in 9.0% (202/2,253, 2.0 per 100 patient-years) during a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Of these, 24.3% (49/202, 4.6 per 100 patient-years) of the patients finally recurred to sustained AF during follow-up. The proportion of asymptomatic patients was lower in patients with regression of AF than those without (with vs without regression; 49.0% vs 69.5%, p&lt;0.01). The percentage of beta-blocker use at baseline was similar between the two groups (37.2% vs 33.8%, p=0.34). The prevalence of patients who underwent catheter ablation or electrical cardioversion during follow-up was higher in patients with regression of AF (catheter ablation: 15.8% vs 5.5%; p&lt;0.01, cardioversion: 4.0% vs 1.4%; p&lt;0.01, respectively). The rate of MACE was significantly lower in patients with regression of AF as compared with patients who maintained sustained AF (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 patient-years, log-rank p&lt;0.01). Figure shows the Kaplan-Meier curves for MACE, cardiac death, hospitalization for heart failure, and stroke. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that regression of AF was an independent predictor of lower MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28 to 0.88, p=0.02), stroke (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88, p=0.02), and hospitalization for HF (HR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85, p=0.01). Conclusion Regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF was associated with a lower incidence of adverse cardiac events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Inter-pregnancy interval and later pediatric cardiovascular health of the offspring – a population-based cohort study

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Majdi Imterat ◽  
Tamar Wainstock ◽  
Eyal Sheiner ◽  
Gali Pariente
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cardiovascular Morbidity ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Inter Pregnancy Interval

Abstract Recent evidence suggests that a long inter-pregnancy interval (IPI: time interval between live birth and estimated time of conception of subsequent pregnancy) poses a risk for adverse short-term perinatal outcome. We aimed to study the effect of short (<6 months) and long (>60 months) IPI on long-term cardiovascular morbidity of the offspring. A population-based cohort study was performed in which all singleton live births in parturients with at least one previous birth were included. Hospitalizations of the offspring up to the age of 18 years involving cardiovascular diseases and according to IPI length were evaluated. Intermediate interval, between 6 and 60 months, was considered the reference. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were used to compare the cumulative morbidity incidence between the groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used to control for confounders. During the study period, 161,793 deliveries met the inclusion criteria. Of them, 14.1% (n = 22,851) occurred in parturient following a short IPI, 78.6% (n = 127,146) following an intermediate IPI, and 7.3% (n = 11,796) following a long IPI. Total hospitalizations of the offspring, involving cardiovascular morbidity, were comparable between the groups. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves demonstrated similar cumulative incidences of cardiovascular morbidity in all groups. In a Cox proportional hazards model, short and long IPI did not appear as independent risk factors for later pediatric cardiovascular morbidity of the offspring (adjusted HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80–1.18; adjusted HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.83–1.37, for short and long IPI, respectively). In our population, extreme IPIs do not appear to impact long-term cardiovascular hospitalizations of offspring.

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