scholarly journals Simplifying the TNM System for Clinical Use in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (11) ◽  
pp. 1872-1878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adedayo A. Onitilo ◽  
Jessica M. Engel ◽  
Catharina Ihre Lundgren ◽  
Per Hall ◽  
Lukman Thalib ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Record System ◽  
Tnm System

Purpose The TNM stratification has been found useful at stratifying patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) into prognostic risk groups. However, it is cumbersome to implement clinically given the large number of bins within this system and the complicated system of arriving at stage information. Patients and Methods We decided to quantify each variable in this system to arrive at a simplified quantitative alternative to the TNM system (QTNM) and compare this with the conventional system. We used our electronic record system to identify 614 cases of DTC managed at our institution from 1987 to 2006. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and a simplified QTNM score was devised using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results We were able to quantify the TNM system as follows: 4 points each for age older than 45 years and presence of neck nodal metastases while 6 points for tumor size larger than 4 cm or extrathyroidal extension and 1 point for nonpapillary DTC. A sum of 0 to 5 points was low risk, 6 to 10 points intermediate, and 11 to 15 points high risk. Comparison with the conventional TNM system and two other systems revealed similar or better discrimination with the QTNM and this discrimination was maintained when this risk stratification was applied to a unique validation set. Conclusion The QTNM system as opposed to the conventional TNM system seems to be a simple and effective method for risk stratification for both recurrence and cancer-specific mortality.

scholarly journals A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival in esthesinoeroblastoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijie Jiang ◽  
Tengjiao Lin ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Wenxiang Gao ◽  
Jie Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cancer Center ◽  
P Value ◽  
Training Cohort

Abstract Background Increasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established. Methods This study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2016 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were identified. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p- value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram. Results The c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups. Conclusions The nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan.

scholarly journals Is there a measurable association of epidural use at cystectomy and postoperative outcomes? A population-based study

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 321 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Christopher Doiron ◽  
Melanie Jaeger ◽  
Christopher M. Booth ◽  
Xuejiao Wei ◽  
D. Robert Siemens
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Provider Volume

Introduction: Thoracic epidural analgesia (TEA) is commonly used to manage postoperative pain and facilitate early mobilization after major intra-abdominal surgery. Evidence also suggests that regional anesthesia/analgesia may be associated with improved survival after cancer surgery. Here, we describe factors associated with TEA at the time of radical cystectomy (RC) for bladder cancer and its association with both short- and long-term outcomes in routine clinical practice.Methods: All patients undergoing RC in the province of Ontario between 2004 and 2008 were identified using the Ontario Cancer Registry (OCR). Modified Poisson regression was used to describe factors associated with epidural use, while a Cox proportional hazards model describes associations between survival and TEA use.Results: Over the five-year study period, 1628 patients were identified as receiving RC, 54% (n=887) of whom received TEA. Greater anesthesiologist volume (lowest volume providers relative risk [RR] 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75‒0.96) and male sex (female sex RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.79‒0.99) were independently associated with greater use of TEA. TEA use was not associated with improved short-term outcomes. In multivariable analysis, TEA was not associated with cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR] 1.02, 95% CI 0.87‒1.19; p=0.804) or overall survival (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.80‒1.03; p=0.136).Conclusions: In routine clinical practice, 54% of RC patients received TEA and its use was associated with anesthesiologist provider volume. After controlling for patient, disease and provider variables, we were unable to demonstrate any effect on either short- or long-term outcomes at the time of RC.

Relationship between taxane-induced neuropathy and clinical outcomes after adjuvant chemotherapy.

2011 ◽  
Vol 29 (27_suppl) ◽  
pp. 270-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. P. Schneider ◽  
M. Wang ◽  
V. Stearns ◽  
S. Martino ◽  
V. E. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Individual Treatment ◽  
Axillary Lymph ◽  
Landmark Analysis

270 Background: Neuropathy is a common and potentially enduring and disabling complication of adjuvant taxane therapy. Recent studies have identified candidate host single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with taxane-induced neuropathy (Schneider et al. ASCO 2011, abstr. 1000). We therefore sought to determine whether neuropathy was associated with breast cancer recurrence. Methods: This study included 4,950 eligible women with axillary lymph node positive or high-risk node-negative breast cancer who received up to 4 cycles of AC (doxorubicin 60 mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m2) every 3 weeks, followed by either: (1) paclitaxel 175 mg/m2 every 3 weeks x 4 (P3), (2) paclitaxel 80 mg/m2 weekly x 12 (P1), (3) docetaxel 100 mg/m2 every 3 weeks x 4 (D3), or (4) docetaxel 35 mg/m2 weekly x 12 (D1). Chemotherapy doses were based on actual body weight. Cox proportional hazards model were used to determine the relationship between neuropathy and disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) treating neuropathy status as a time dependent covariate and using a landmark analysis. Results: Of 4,702 patients who received at least 1 taxane dose, grade 2-4 neuropathy developed in 20%, 27%, 16%, and 16% in the P3, P1, D3, and D1 arms, respectively. In a model including age, tumor size, nodal status, treatment arm, neuropathy, and the neuropathy- treatment interaction, there was no relationship between neuropathy and DFS and OS in the entire population, for any of the individual treatment arms, or for any breast cancer subtypes, whether analyzed as a time-dependent covariate or using a landmark analysis. Baseline covariates associated with an increase rate of neuropathy included black race (25% vs. 19% grade 2-4, p=0.02) and obesity (21% vs. 19%, p=0.04), but not age. Conclusions: There was no association between taxane-induced neuropathy and DFS or OS in patients treated with contemporary AC-taxane therapy, including weekly paclitaxel. These findings show that taxane-induced neuropathy is not associated with outcome, thus suggesting that validation of SNPs predictive of neuropathy may be useful in identifying patients at higher risk for neuropathy but not taxane benefit and thereby improve therapeutic individualization.

Gender disparities in hepatocellular cancer survival

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15517-e15517
Author(s):  
A. E. Hendifar ◽  
D. Yang ◽  
S. Iqbal ◽  
H. Lenz ◽  
A. El-Khoueiry
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Cancer Survival ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Premenopausal Women ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Response To Treatment ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Asian Ethnicity

e15517 Background: Recent reports suggest that estrogen mediated inhibition of IL-6 protects against the development of HCC and may explain the decreased risk of liver cancer in women. We investigated the relation-hip between gender, age, and survival for patients with localized HCC. Methods: We identified 11,097 patients with localized, histologically defined HCC, from 1988- 2003, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Age at diagnosis, sex, ethnicity, and overall survival were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards model. The models were adjusted for treatment modality, tumor differentiation, tumor size, lymph node involvement, and number of lesions; they were stratified by year of diagnosis and SEER registry site. Results: 8,111 (73%) patients were men and 2,986 (27%) were women. In univariate and multivariate analyses, female gender, young age (< 55 yo), and Asian ethnicity were all associated with improved overall survival (p<0.001). In patients less than 55 yo, women had a superior OS and cancer specific survival (CSS) when compared to men (OS: 18 months vs. 9, CSS: 31 months vs. 14, p<0.001). Conversely, in patients older than 55, there were no gender differences (OS: 8 months vs. 8, CSS 13 months vs. 11, p = 0.08). Local therapies, including, ablation (HR = 0.47 [0.43–0.53]), hepatectomy (HR = 0.40 [0.36–0.44]), radiation (HR = 0.67 [0.57–0.78]) and transplantation (HR = 0.17 [0.15–0.20]) were also associated with improved survival. There were no interactions identified between gender and treatment use. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first report to highlight the superior outcome of premenopausal women with HCC compared to men. We postulate a potential role for estrogen in influencing the biology of HCC and the response to treatment. These observations are consistent with ones made in other gastrointestinal cancers and with reported preclinical data suggesting a protective role for estrogen. Further studies that confirm these observations and elucidate the biology of estrogen's influence on HCC are needed. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Clusterin expression (CLU) as a prognostic marker in colorectal carcinoma (CCR).

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 563-563
Author(s):  
Julia Alcaide ◽  
Antonio Rueda ◽  
Isabel Rodrigo ◽  
Teresa Tellez ◽  
Rafael Funez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
Normal Mucosa ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Staining Procedure ◽  
Positive Staining

563 Background: Increased CLU is involved in malignant progression and anticlusterin treatment with antisense oligonucleotides enhances apoptosis induced by several citotoxics. However, clinical significance of CLU expression in human CRCs has been scarcely studied. We investigated whether changes in CLU could be related to carcinogenesis and survival (sv) of CRC patients (pts). Methods: Formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded specimens were examined from 31 adenomas and 103 CRCs resected at Costa del Sol Hospital. The study was approved by Research Ethics Committee. Immunohistochemistry using monoclonal anti-α chain clusterin antibody (Upstate-Millipore, Watford, England) was performed, following standard staining procedure. CLU was scored as negative (CLU–) (no staining) or positive (CLU +) (>10% of tumor cells with strong staining). Cytoplasmic CLU in tumors was evaluated for cancer cells only, and in normal mucosa for epithelial cells only. Sv curves were calculated and plotted according to Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors that were significant at p<0.10 in univariate analysis, were entered into a Cox proportional hazards model for multivariate analysis, remaining significant at p<0.05. Results: Median follow-up was 54 months. Median age was 70 years (45-91). TNM stage distribution was: I (13%), II (48%), III (25%) and IV (14%). Epithelial normal cells were always CLU-, but 16% (5/31) of adenomas was CLU+ and this percentage increased in CRCs (30%, 31/103). Positive staining always presented an apical cytoplasmic pattern. Recurrence was more frequent in CLU+ (61%,19/ 31) than in CLU- tumors (37%, 27/72) and CLU was significantly associated with lower disease-free survival (DFS) (p<0.05). In multivariate analysis, CLU and stage remained significant independent prognostic factors for DFS (Table). Conclusions: CLU has a role in colon carcinogenesis and prognostic value. CLU is associated with decreased DFS among pts with CRCs. These findings have important implications for identifying CRC pts with more aggressive tumors who may benefit from targeted therapy against clusterin. [Table: see text]

Pembrolizumab (pembro) plus axitinib (axi) versus sunitinib as first-line therapy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC): Outcomes in the combined IMDC intermediate/poor risk and sarcomatoid subgroups of the phase 3 KEYNOTE-426 study.

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4500-4500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian I. Rini ◽  
Elizabeth R. Plimack ◽  
Viktor Stus ◽  
Rustem Gafanov ◽  
Robert Hawkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
First Line ◽  
Poor Risk ◽  
First Line Therapy ◽  
Line Therapy

4500 Background: In KEYNOTE-426, pembro + axi significantly improved OS (HR 0.53, P < .0001), PFS (HR 0.69, P = .0001), and ORR (59.3% vs 35.7%, P < .0001) vs sunitinib and had manageable toxicity as first-line therapy for mRCC (NCT02853331). The pembro + axi benefit was observed across all IMDC risk groups and regardless of PD-L1 expression. We present data for the combined intermediate/poor risk group and for patients (pts) with sarcomatoid features. Methods: 861 eligible pts with clear-cell mRCC, no prior systemic therapy for mRCC, and KPS ≥70 were randomized 1:1 to pembro 200 mg IV Q3W for a maximum of 35 cycles plus axi 5 mg orally BID (N = 432) or sunitinib 50 mg orally QD (4-wk on/2-wk off) (N = 429). Primary endpoints were OS and PFS (RECIST v1.1 by blinded, independent central review [BICR]). ORR (RECIST v1.1 by BICR) was the key secondary endpoint. The intermediate/poor risk group was prespecified; the sarcomatoid group was exploratory. HRs and their 95% CIs were calculated with a Cox proportional hazards model. None of the analyses were multiplicity-controlled. Results: 592 (68.8%) of all randomized pts were of IMDC intermediate/poor risk — 294 in the pembro + axi arm, 298 in the sunitinib arm. Pembro + axi improved OS (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74; 12-mo rate 87.3% vs 71.3%), PFS (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.85; median 12.6 vs 8.2 mo), and ORR (55.8% [95% CI 49.9-61.5] vs 29.5% [24.4-35.1]) in pts with intermediate/poor risk; CR rates were 4.8% (95% CI 2.6-7.9) vs 0.7% (0.1-2.4). Of the 578 pts with known status, 105 (18.2%) had sarcomatoid features — 51 in the pembro + axi arm, 54 in the sunitinib arm. Pembro + axi improved OS (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.21-1.59; 12-mo rate 83.4% vs 79.5%), PFS (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.29-1.00; median not reached vs 8.4 mo), and ORR (58.8% [95% CI 44.2-72.4] vs 31.5% [19.5-45.6]) in pts with sarcomatoid features; CR rates were 11.8% (95% CI 4.4-23.9) vs 0% (0.0-6.6). Conclusions: Pembro + axi provides benefit in the combined population of pts with IMDC intermediate or poor risk and in pts whose tumors had sarcomatoid features. The observed benefits were consistent with those seen in the total population. Clinical trial information: NCT02853331.

Development and validation of a pediatric disease risk index for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 7503-7503
Author(s):  
Muna Qayed ◽  
Carrie L Kitko ◽  
Kwang Woo Ahn ◽  
Mariam H Johnson ◽  
Kirk R. Schultz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model

7503 Background: Characteristics such as disease, disease status and cytogenetic abnormalities impact relapse and survival after transplantation for acute myeloid (AML) and acute lymphoblastic (ALL) leukemia. In adults, these attributes were used to derive the disease risk index for survival. Thus, the current analysis sought to develop and validate a pediatric disease risk index (p-DRI). Methods: Eligible were patients aged <18 years with AML (n=1135) and ALL (n=1228) transplanted between 2008 and 2017 in the United States. Separate analyses were performed for AML and ALL. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to a training and validation cohort. Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection was used to select significant variables (2-sided p<0.05). The primary outcome was leukemia-free survival (LFS; relapse or death were events). Based on the magnitude of log(HR), a weighted score was assigned to each characteristic that met the level of significance and risk groups were created. Results: Four risk groups were identified for AML and three risk groups for ALL (Table). The 5-year probabilities of LFS for AML were 81% (68-91), 56% (51-61), 44% (39-49) and 21% (15-28) for good, intermediate, high and very high-risk groups, respectively. The 5-year probabilities of LFS for ALL were 68% (63-72), 50% (45-54) and 15% (3-34) for good, intermediate, high risk groups, respectively. Conclusions: This validated p-DRI successfully stratified children with AML and ALL for prognostication undergoing allogeneic transplantation. [Table: see text]

scholarly journals Primary fallopian tube carcinoma: a single-institution retrospective study of 57 cases

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihua Ma ◽  
Li Gao ◽  
Han Li ◽  
Yan Xue
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
Residual Tumor ◽  
Tumor Stage ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract Background In order to identify the characteristics and factors affecting the treatment and prognosis of primary fallopian tube cancer(PFTC),we analyzed the clinical profile of PFTC in the past 10 years in our hospital, which is center in Western China. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 57 patients diagnosed as PFTC at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University from past ten years. The clinical index and a Cox proportional hazards model was used for univariate and multivariate survival analyses. Results The mean age of PFTC at diagnosis was 57.35±9.01 years. Palpable pelvic and/or abdominal mass (68.4%) was the main clinical symptom. Preoperatively, 80.7% patients were misdiagnosed with ovarian cancer, and 43.8% of patients were at stage III. 26 patients were relapsed at the median of 18.5 (3-83) months. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 15.4%, and the 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) was 11.5%. Additionally, univariate analysis showed that tumor stage and size of residual tumor were both related to 5-year OS and DFS. While level of serum carbohydrate antigen 125(CA125) pre-treatment was only related to DFS. The Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that residual tumor size was the only independent factor related to both 5-year OS and DFS. Conclusions PFTC is a more common malignancy at post-menopause stage in women. The symptoms are not typical in most case and often diagnose at late clinical stage. Tumor stage, level of CA125, and residual lesion size affected the disease-free survival or/ and overall survival. Trial registration Not applicable.

scholarly journals Different Anatomical Subsites of Colon Cancer and Mortality: A Population-Based Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing-kang He ◽  
Wenrui Wu ◽  
Yu-e Ding ◽  
Yue Li ◽  
Lei-min Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colon Cancer ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Survival Outcomes ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Kaplan Meier

Background. In terms of incidence and pathogenesis, right-sided colon cancer (RCC) and left-sided colon cancer (LCC) exhibit several differences. However, whether existing differences could reflect the different survival outcomes remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to ascertain the role of location in the prognosis. Methods. We identified colon cancer cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 1973 and 2012. Differences among subsites of colon cancer regarding clinical features and metastatic patterns were compared. The Kaplan-Meier curves were conducted to compare overall and disease-specific survival in relation to cancer location. The effect of tumour location on overall and cancer-specific survival was analysed by Cox proportional hazards model. Results. A total of 377,849 patients from SEER database were included in the current study, with 180,889 (47.9%) RCC and 196,960 (52.1%) LCC. LCC was more likely to metastasize to the liver and lung. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that LCC patients had better overall and cancer-specific survival outcomes. Among Cox multivariate analyses, LCC was associated with a slightly reduced risk of overall survival (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.92-0.93) and cancer-specific survival (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.91-0.93), even after adjusted for other variables. However, the relationship between location and prognosis was varied by subgroups defined by age, year at diagnosis, stage, and therapies. Conclusions. We demonstrated that LCC was associated with better prognosis, especially for patients with distant metastasis. Future trails should seek to identify the underlying mechanism.

scholarly journals A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival in esthesinoeroblastoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijie Jiang ◽  
Tengjiao Lin ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Wenxiang Gao ◽  
Jie Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cancer Center ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Chi Squared

Abstract Background Increasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established. MethodsThis study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2016 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were included. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p-value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram.ResultsThe c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups.ConclusionsThe nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan.

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