Hot flash placebo responses: Related to baseline hot flash frequency?
9628 Background: As multiple treatments have been studied for the management of hot flashes in randomized, controlled trials, hot flash placebo responses have been quite variable across trials. Based on observations of trial reports, it was hypothesized that the magnitude of placebo effect might correlate with the number of baseline hot flashes in different studies. The current project examines the effect of the baseline hot flash frequency required for study participation and also the actual number of baseline hot flashes observed as these individually relate to the eventual reductions of hot flash frequency observed in patients receiving placebos. Methods: Data were collected from placebo-controlled, double-blinded, randomized trials, identified by a PubMed search, which reported hot flash frequency at baseline, 4–6 weeks and 12 weeks. Trials were excluded if they had less than 20 participants completing the placebo arm. Data gathered, in each study, included the number of hot flashes required to enroll in the study, the average hot flash number during the baseline period, and the hot flash changes in the placebo arms of each study (percent reduction from the baseline period). A simple statistical analysis was conducted in a descriptive fashion since standard deviation was not available in many trials. Scatter plots and Pearson's correlation coefficients demonstrated the relationships between the placebo hot flash percent reduction from baseline and both the minimum required number of hot flashes at baseline, and the mean number of hot flashes at baseline. Results: 45 trials with 49 placebo arms were included in this analysis. A significant positive correlation was seen between the number of hot flashes required to enroll in a study and the percent reduction of hot flashes from baseline at 4–6 weeks (Rho = 0.481, p = 0.003). There was also a significant positive correlation between the number of hot flashes at baseline and the percent reduction of hot flashes from baseline at 4–6 weeks (Rho = 0.481, p= 0.002) and at 12 weeks (Rho = 0.573, p= 0.003). Conclusions: These data support that higher baseline hot flash enrollment requirements and also higher baseline hot flash frequencies are associated with an increased placebo response. No significant financial relationships to disclose.