The Added Value of Satellite Soil Moisture for Agricultural Index Insurance

Abstract The goal of drought-related weather index insurance (WII) is to protect smallholder farmers against the risk of weather shocks and to increase their agricultural productivity. Estimates of precipitation and vegetation greenness are the two dominant satellite datasets. However, ignoring additional moisture- and energy-related processes that influence the response of vegetation to rainfall leads to an incomplete representation of the hydrologic cycle. This study evaluates the added value of considering multiple independent satellite-based variables to design, calibrate, and validate weather insurance indices on the African continent. The satellite data include two rainfall datasets, soil moisture, the evaporative stress index (ESI), and vegetation greenness. We limit artificial advantages by resampling all datasets to the same spatial (0.25°) and temporal (monthly) resolution, although datasets with a higher spatial resolution might have an added value, if considered as the single source of information for localized applications. A higher correlation coefficient between the moisture-focused variables and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an indicator for vegetation vigor, provides evidence for the datasets’ capability to capture agricultural drought conditions on the ground. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset, soil moisture, and ESI show higher correlations with the (lagged) NDVI in large parts of Africa, for different land covers and various climate zones, than the African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2), rainfall dataset, which is often used in WII. A comparison to drought years as reported by farmers in Ethiopia, Senegal, and Zambia indicates a high “hit rate” of all satellite-derived anomalies regarding the detection of severe droughts but limitations regarding moderate drought events.

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Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-20-0185.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 148 (11) ◽

pp. 4607-4627

Author(s):

Craig R. Ferguson ◽

Shubhi Agrawal ◽

Mark C. Beauharnois ◽

Geng Xia ◽

D. Alex Burrows ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Wind Speed ◽

Data Assimilation ◽

Great Plains ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Added Value ◽

Low Level ◽

Convective Systems ◽

South Central ◽

Mesoscale Convective

AbstractIn the context of forecasting societally impactful Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs), the potential added value of satellite soil moisture (SM) data assimilation (DA) is high. GPLLJs are both sensitive to regional soil moisture gradients and frequent drivers of severe weather, including mesoscale convective systems. An untested hypothesis is that SM DA is more effective in forecasts of weakly synoptically forced, or uncoupled GPLLJs, than in forecasts of cyclone-induced coupled GPLLJs. Using the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model, 75 GPLLJs are simulated at 9-km resolution both with and without NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive SM DA. Differences in modeled SM, surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes, 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m humidity (Q2), PBL height (PBLH), and 850-hPa wind speed (W850) are quantified for individual jets and jet-type event subsets over the south-central Great Plains, as well as separately for each GPLLJ sector (entrance, core, and exit). At the GPLLJ core, DA-related changes of up to 5.4 kg m−2 in SM can result in T2, Q2, LH, SH, PBLH, and W850 differences of 0.68°C, 0.71 g kg−2, 59.9 W m−2, 52.4 W m−2, 240 m, and 4 m s−1, respectively. W850 differences focus along the jet axis and tend to increase from south to north. Jet-type differences are most evident at the GPLLJ exit where DA increases and decreases W850 in uncoupled and coupled GPLLJs, respectively. Data assimilation marginally reduces negative wind speed bias for all jets, but the correction is greater for uncoupled GPLLJs, as hypothesized.

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The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-18-2343-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 18 (6) ◽

pp. 2343-2357 ◽

Cited By ~ 148

Author(s):

N. Wanders ◽

D. Karssenberg ◽

A. de Roo ◽

S. M. de Jong ◽

M. F. P. Bierkens

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Satellite Data ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Flood Forecasting ◽

Remotely Sensed ◽

Added Value ◽

Lead Times ◽

Validation Data ◽

Data Set ◽

Discharge Data

Abstract. We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model (LISFLOOD) for flood predictions with lead times of up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is assimilated into the LISFLOOD model for the Upper Danube Basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into the hydrological model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure increased performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation data set. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the mean absolute error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 35%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of baseflows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5–10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more observational data is assimilated into the system. The added values of the satellite data is largest when these observations are assimilated in combination with distributed discharge observations. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

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A regionally explicit, global SWI calibration based on ISMN observations

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-496 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Manolis G. Grillakis

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Soil Water ◽

Large Scale ◽

Root Zone ◽

Soil Depth ◽

European Space Agency ◽

Soil Layer ◽

Added Value ◽

Water Index ◽

Soil Moisture Data

Remote sensing has proven to be an irreplaceable tool for monitoring soil moisture. The European Space Agency (ESA), through the Climate Change Initiative (CCI), has provided one of the most substantial contributions in the soil water monitoring, with almost 4 decades of global satellite derived and homogenized soil moisture data for the uppermost soil layer. Yet, due to the inherent limitations of many of the remote sensors, only a limited soil depth can be monitored. To enable the assessment of the deeper soil layer moisture from surface remotely sensed products, the Soil Water Index (SWI) has been established as a convolutive transformation of the surface soil moisture estimation, under the assumption of uniform hydraulic conductivity and the absence of transpiration. The SWI uses a single calibration parameter, the T-value, to modify its response over time.Here the Soil Water Index (SWI) is calibrated using ESA CCI soil moisture against in situ observations from the International Soil Moisture Network and then use Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to find the best physical soil, climate, and vegetation descriptors at a global scale to regionalize the calibration of the T-value. The calibration is then used to assess a root zone related soil moisture for the period 2001 &#8211; 2018.The results are compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ERA5 Land reanalysis soil moisture dataset, showing a good agreement, mainly over mid-latitudes. The results indicate that there is added value to the results of the machine learning calibration, comparing to the uniform T-value. This work contributes to the exploitation of ESA CCI soil moisture data, while the produced data can support large scale soil moisture related studies.

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Towards a Long-Term Reanalysis of Land Surface Variables over Western Africa: LDAS-Monde Applied over Burkina Faso from 2001 to 2018

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11060735 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 735 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Moustapha Tall ◽

Clément Albergel ◽

Bertrand Bonan ◽

Yongjun Zheng ◽

Françoise Guichard ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Burkina Faso ◽

Land Surface ◽

Gross Primary Production ◽

Added Value ◽

Surface Model ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Area Index ◽

Soil Layers ◽

Global Land

This study focuses on the ability of the global Land Data Assimilation System, LDAS-Monde, to improve the representation of land surface variables (LSVs) over Burkina-Faso through the joint assimilation of satellite derived surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) from January 2001 to June 2018. The LDAS-Monde offline system is forced by the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 as well as ERA-Interim former reanalysis, leading to reanalyses of LSVs at 0.25° × 0.25° and 0.50° × 0.50° spatial resolution, respectively. Within LDAS-Monde, SSM and LAI observations from the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) are assimilated with a simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF) using the CO2-responsive version of the ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). First, it is shown that ERA5 better represents precipitation and incoming solar radiation than ERA-Interim former reanalysis from ECMWF based on in situ data. Results of four experiments are then compared: Open-loop simulation (i.e., no assimilation) and analysis (i.e., joint assimilation of SSM and LAI) forced by either ERA5 or ERA-Interim. After jointly assimilating SSM and LAI, it is noticed that the assimilation is able to impact soil moisture in the first top soil layers (the first 20 cm), and also in deeper soil layers (from 20 cm to 60 cm and below), as reflected by the structure of the SEKF Jacobians. The added value of using ERA5 reanalysis over ERA-Interim when used in LDAS-Monde is highlighted. The assimilation is able to improve the simulation of both SSM and LAI: The analyses add skill to both configurations, indicating the healthy behavior of LDAS-Monde. For LAI in particular, the southern region of the domain (dominated by a Sudan-Guinean climate) highlights a strong impact of the assimilation compared to the other two sub-regions of Burkina-Faso (dominated by Sahelian and Sudan-Sahelian climates). In the southern part of the domain, differences between the model and the observations are the largest, prior to any assimilation. These differences are linked to the model failing to represent the behavior of some specific vegetation species, which are known to put on leaves before the first rains of the season. The LDAS-Monde analysis is very efficient at compensating for this model weakness. Evapotranspiration estimates from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) project as well as upscaled carbon uptake from the FLUXCOM project and sun-induced fluorescence from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) are used in the evaluation process, again demonstrating improvements in the representation of evapotranspiration and gross primary production after assimilation.

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Defining a Trade-off Between Spatial and Temporal Resolution of a Geosynchronous SAR Mission for Soil Moisture Monitoring

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs10121950 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 1950 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Luca Cenci ◽

Luca Pulvirenti ◽

Giorgio Boni ◽

Nazzareno Pierdicca

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Temporal Resolution ◽

Added Value ◽

Sar Images ◽

Radar Images ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Set Up ◽

The Impact ◽

Hydrological Applications

The next generation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems could foresee satellite missions based on a geosynchronous orbit (GEO SAR). These systems are able to provide radar images with an unprecedented combination of spatial (≤1 km) and temporal (≤12 h) resolutions. This paper investigates the GEO SAR potentialities for soil moisture (SM) mapping finalized to hydrological applications, and defines the best compromise, in terms of image spatio-temporal resolution, for SM monitoring. A synthetic soil moisture–data assimilation (SM-DA) experiment was thus set up to evaluate the impact of the hydrological assimilation of different GEO SAR-like SM products, characterized by diverse spatio-temporal resolutions. The experiment was also designed to understand if GEO SAR-like SM maps could provide an added value with respect to SM products retrieved from SAR images acquired from satellites flying on a quasi-polar orbit, like Sentinel-1 (POLAR SAR). Findings showed that GEO SAR systems provide a valuable contribution for hydrological applications, especially if the possibility to generate many sub-daily observations is sacrificed in favor of higher spatial resolution. In the experiment, it was found that the assimilation of two GEO SAR-like observations a day, with a spatial resolution of 100 m, maximized the performances of the hydrological predictions, for both streamflow and SM state forecasts. Such improvements of the model performances were found to be 45% higher than the ones obtained by assimilating POLAR SAR-like SM maps.

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Assessment of Multi-Scale SMOS and SMAP Soil Moisture Products across the Iberian Peninsula

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12030570 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 570 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Gerard Portal ◽

Thomas Jagdhuber ◽

Mercè Vall-llossera ◽

Adriano Camps ◽

Miriam Pablos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Spatial Scale ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Microwave Radiometer ◽

Added Value ◽

Optical Data ◽

Enhanced Resolution ◽

The Impact

In the last decade, technological advances led to the launch of two satellite missions dedicated to measure the Earth’s surface soil moisture (SSM): the ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) launched in 2009, and the NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) launched in 2015. The two satellites have an L-band microwave radiometer on-board to measure the Earth’s surface emission. These measurements (brightness temperatures TB) are then used to generate global maps of SSM every three days with a spatial resolution of about 30–40 km and a target accuracy of 0.04 m3/m3. To meet local applications needs, different approaches have been proposed to spatially disaggregate SMOS and SMAP TB or their SSM products. They rely on synergies between multi-sensor observations and are built upon different physical assumptions. In this study, temporal and spatial characteristics of six operational SSM products derived from SMOS and SMAP are assessed in order to diagnose their distinct features, and the rationale behind them. The study is focused on the Iberian Peninsula and covers the period from April 2015 to December 2017. A temporal inter-comparison analysis is carried out using in situ SSM data from the Soil Moisture Measurements Station Network of the University of Salamanca (REMEDHUS) to evaluate the impact of the spatial scale of the different products (1, 3, 9, 25, and 36 km), and their correspondence in terms of temporal dynamics. A spatial analysis is conducted for the whole Iberian Peninsula with emphasis on the added-value that the enhanced resolution products provide based on the microwave-optical (SMOS/ERA5/MODIS) or the active–passive microwave (SMAP/Sentinel-1) sensor fusion. Our results show overall agreement among time series of the products regardless their spatial scale when compared to in situ measurements. Still, higher spatial resolutions would be needed to capture local features such as small irrigated areas that are not dominant at the 1-km pixel scale. The degree to which spatial features are resolved by the enhanced resolution products depend on the multi-sensor synergies employed (at TB or soil moisture level), and on the nature of the fine-scale information used. The largest disparities between these products occur in forested areas, which may be related to the reduced sensitivity of high-resolution active microwave and optical data to soil properties under dense vegetation.

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Added-value of satellite soil moisture assimilation in hydrological modelling: an evaluation through a large experiment over Europe

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16239 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Domenico De Santis ◽

Christian Massari ◽

Stefania Camici ◽

Sara Modanesi ◽

Luca Brocca ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Surface Layer ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Winter Season ◽

Assimilation Efficiency ◽

Remotely Sensed ◽

Open Loop ◽

Added Value ◽

Observation Error ◽

Loop Model ◽

Rainfall Runoff

The increasing availability of remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) observations has brought great interest in their use in data assimilation (DA) frameworks in order to improve streamflow simulations. However, the added-value of assimilating satellite SM into rainfall-runoff models is still difficult to be quantified, and much more research is needed to fully understand benefits and limitations.Here, an extensive evaluation of remotely sensed SM assimilation on hydrological model performances was carried out, involving 775 catchments across Europe. Satellite observations for over a decade from the three ESA CCI SM products (ACTIVE, PASSIVE and COMBINED) were assimilated in a lumped rainfall-runoff model which includes a thin surface layer in its soil schematization, by using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Observations were mapped into the space of modelled surface layer SM through a monthly CDF-matching prior to DA, while the observation error variance was calibrated in every catchment in order to maximize the assimilation efficiency.The implemented DA procedure, aimed at reducing only random errors in SM variables, generally resulted in limited runoff improvements, although with some variability within the study domain. Factors emerging as relevant for the assessment of assimilation impact were: i) the open-loop (OL) model performance; ii) the remotely sensed SM accuracy for hydrological purposes; iii) the sensitivity of the catchment response to soil moisture dynamics; and also iv) issues in DA implementation (e.g., violations in theoretical assumptions).The open-loop model results contributed significantly to explain differences in assimilation performances observed within the study area as well as at the seasonal scale; overall, the high OL efficiency is the main cause of the slight improvements here observed after DA. The integration of satellite SM information, showing greater skills in correspondence of poorer streamflow simulations, confirmed a potential in reducing the effects of rainfall inaccuracies.The variability in satellite SM accuracy for hydrological purposes was also found to be relevant in DA assessment. The ACTIVE product assimilation generally provided the best streamflow results within the study catchments, followed by COMBINED and PASSIVE ones, while factors affecting the SM retrieval such as vegetation density and topographic complexity were not found to have a decisive effect on DA results.Low assimilation performances were obtained when runoff was dominated by snow dynamics (e.g., in the northern areas of the study domain, or in winter season at medium latitudes), due to the SM conditions having a negligible effect on the hydrological response.Finally, in basins where SM was persistently near the saturation value, deteriorations in hydrological simulations were observed, mainly attributable to violation of error normality hypothesis in EnKF due to the bounded nature of soil moisture.In conclusion, the added-value of assimilating remotely sensed SM into rainfall-runoff models was confirmed to be linked to multiple factors: understanding their contribution and interactions deserves further research and is fundamental to take full advantage of the potential of satellite SM retrievals, in parallel with their progress in terms of accuracy and resolutions.

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The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-13783-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 13783-13816 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

N. Wanders ◽

D. Karssenberg ◽

A. de Roo ◽

S. M. de Jong ◽

M. F. P. Bierkens

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Flood Forecasting ◽

Remotely Sensed ◽

Added Value ◽

Validation Dataset ◽

Lead Times ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Danube Basin ◽

Discharge Data ◽

Soil Moisture Data

Abstract. We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model for flood predictions with lead times up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT, AMSR-E and SMOS is assimilated into the EFAS system for the Upper Danube basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into EFAS, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure optimal performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF, are used as an independent validation dataset. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 65%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of base flows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5–10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more data is assimilated into the system and the best performance is achieved with the assimilation of both discharge and satellite observations. The additional gain is highest when discharge observations from both upstream and downstream areas are used in combination with the soil moisture data. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

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