scholarly journals Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (11) ◽  
pp. 3447-3476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Krusell ◽  
Toshihiko Mukoyama ◽  
Richard Rogerson ◽  
Ayşegül Şahin
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Worker Flows ◽  
Key Features ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
Over Time

We build a hybrid model of the aggregate labor market that features both standard labor supply forces and frictions in order to study the cyclical properties of gross worker flows across the three labor market states: employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation. Our parsimonious model is able to capture the key features of the cyclical movements in gross worker flows. Despite the fact that the wage per efficiency unit is constant over time, intertemporal substitution plays an important role in shaping fluctuations in the participation rate. (JEL E24, E32, J22, J31, J64, J65)

Business Cycles and Apprenticeships

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Muehlemann ◽  
Stefan Wolter
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Skilled Labor ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
Task Forces ◽  
Apprenticeship Training ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Over Time

The economic reasons why firms engage in apprenticeship training are twofold. First, apprenticeship training is a potentially cost-effective strategy for filling a firm’s future vacancies, particularly if skilled labor on the external labor market is scarce. Second, apprentices can be cost-effective substitutes for other types of labor in the current production process. As current and expected business and labor market conditions determine a firm’s expected work volume and thus its future demand for skilled labor, they are potentially important drivers of a firm’s training decisions. Empirical studies have found that the business cycle affects apprenticeship markets. However, while the economic magnitude of these effects is moderate on average, there is substantial heterogeneity across countries, even among those that at first sight seem very similar in terms of their apprenticeship systems. Moreover, identification of business cycle effects is a difficult task. First, statistics on apprenticeship markets are often less developed than labor market statistics, making empirical analyses of demand and supply impossible in many cases. In particular, data about unfilled apprenticeship vacancies and unsuccessful applicants are paramount for assessing potential market failures and analyzing the extent to which business cycle fluctuations may amplify imbalances in apprenticeship markets. Second, the intensity of business cycle effects on apprenticeship markets is not completely exogenous, as governments typically undertake a variety of measures, which differ across countries and may change over time, to reduce the adverse effects of economic downturns on apprenticeship markets. During the economic crisis related to the COVID-19 global pandemic, many countries took unprecedented actions to support their economies in general and reacted swiftly to introduce measures such as the provision of financial subsidies for training firms or the establishment of apprenticeship task forces. As statistics on apprenticeship markets improve over time, such heterogeneity in policy measures should be exploited to improve our understanding of the business cycle and its relationship with apprenticeships.

scholarly journals Autonomes Fahren statt Stop and Go: Vorschläge zur effektiven Gestaltung der deutschen Kurzarbeit

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 252-260
Author(s):  
Almut Balleer ◽  
Britta Gehrke ◽  
Brigitte Hochmuth ◽  
Christian Merkl
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Stop And Go ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Short Time

Abstract This article argues that short-time work stabilized employment in Germany substantially during the Great Recession in 2008/09. The labor market instrument acted in timely manner, as it was used in a rule-based fashion. In addition, discretionary extensions were effective due to their interaction with the business cycle. To ensure that short-time work will be effective in the future, this article proposes an automatic facilitation of the access to short-time work in severe recessions. This reduces the likelihood of a too extensive use at the wrong point in time as well as structural instead of cyclical interventions.

scholarly journals Asset Returns, the Business Cycle and the Labor Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burkhard Heer ◽  
Alfred Maußner
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
New Keynesian Models ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Sticky Wages

Abstract We review the labor market implications of recent real-business cycle and New Keynesian models that successfully replicate the empirical equity premium. We document the fact that all models reviewed in this article that do not feature either sticky wages or immobile labor between two production sectors as in Boldrin et al. (2001) imply a negative correlation of working hours and output that is not observed empirically. Within the class of Neo-Keynesian models, sticky prices alone are demonstrated to be less successful than rigid nominal wages with respect to the modeling of the labor market stylized facts. In addition, monetary shocks in these models are required to be much more volatile than productivity shocks to match statistics from both the asset and labor market.

Are You Ready for Some Football? Estimating the Effect of American Football Season on Labor Supply in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 152700252110246
Author(s):  
Luke Petach ◽  
Dustin Rumbaugh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Football ◽  
Hourly Wage ◽  
Market Models ◽  
Supply Effect ◽  
The Business Cycle

American football season reduces the Monday labor hours of employed men by two-thirds of an hour. A similar effect is found for Friday labor hours. We term these effects the “hangover effect” and “happy hour effect.” Consistent with a wide class of labor market models, the labor supply effect varies over the business cycle, increasing in expansions. The hangover effect implies an intertemporal elasticity of labor supply on the order of 0.014. Evaluated at the median hourly wage, our estimates imply an annual economic cost of foregone earnings associated with football season in the neighborhood of $5.06 billion.

scholarly journals Labor supply and the business cycle: The “bandwagon worker effect”

2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (6) ◽  
pp. 1607-1642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ángel L. Martín‐Román ◽  
Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín ◽  
Alfonso Moral
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
The Business Cycle

Risk Shocks

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence J. Christiano ◽  
Roberto Motto ◽  
Massimo Rostagno
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Dynamic General Equilibrium ◽  
General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Dynamic General Equilibrium Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Idiosyncratic Uncertainty ◽  
Over Time

We augment a standard monetary dynamic general equilibrium model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as risk. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle. (JEL D81, D82, E32, E44, L26)

scholarly journals COLLATERAL CONSTRAINT AND NEWS-DRIVEN CYCLES

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 752-776 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keiichiro Kobayashi ◽  
Tomoyuki Nakajima ◽  
Masaru Inaba
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Good News ◽  
Collateral Constraint ◽  
The Future ◽  
Market Good

We develop business-cycle models with financial constraints, the driving force of which is news about the future (i.e., changes in expectations). We assume that an asset with fixed supply (“land”) is used as collateral, and firms need to hold collateral to finance their input costs. The latter feature introduces an interaction between the inefficiencies in the financial market and in the factor market. Good news raises the price of land today, which relaxes the collateral constraint. It, in turn, reduces the inefficiency in the labor market. If this force is sufficiently strong, the equilibrium labor supply increases. So do output, investment, and consumption. Our models also generate procyclical movement in Tobin's Q. We also show that when the news turns out to be wrong, the economy may fall into a recession.

scholarly journals Uncertainty and Contradiction: An Essay on the Business Cycle

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis Nikiforos
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The Other ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Wage Share ◽  
Hyman Minsky ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The One

The paper develops a model of economic fluctuations in the medium run and their relation with the short-run macroeconomic equilibrium. The business cycle is the result of two separate forces. On the one hand, there is Harrodian instability. On the other hand, this instability is contained by the inherent contradictions of capitalism. I focus on two of these contradictions: the profit-squeeze that results from the tightening of the labor market as employment and utilization increase, and the financial instability hypothesis as formulated by Hyman Minsky. With the inclusion of overhead labor, the model can explain the U-shaped behavior of the wage share along the business cycle (wage share decreases for low levels of utilization and increases for higher levels) that prevailed in most of the post-WWII period, as well as the decrease in the wage share as utilization increases that has been observed in the most recent cycles.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document