scholarly journals Effects of Terms of Trade Gains and Tariff Changes on the Measurement of US Productivity Growth

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert C Feenstra ◽  
Benjamin R Mandel ◽  
Marshall B Reinsdorf ◽  
Matthew J Slaughter
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Alternative Explanation ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Tariff Reductions ◽  
Upward Biases

The acceleration in US productivity growth since 1995 is often attributed to declining prices for information technology (IT) goods, and therefore enhanced productivity growth in that sector. We investigate an alternative explanation for these IT price movements: gains in the US terms of trade and tariff reductions, especially for IT products, which led to greater gains than shown by official indexes. We do not, however, investigate the indexes used to deflate the domestic absorption components of GDP, and if upward biases are present in those indexes that could offset some of the effects of mismeasured export and import indexes. (JEL C43, E23, F13, F14, J24)

scholarly journals Th e Enigma of US Productivity Slowdown: A Theoretical Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Ghafoor Awan ◽  
Rana Ejaz Ali Khan
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Productivity Slowdown ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

Introduction: The economy of the United States is the number one economy of the world on the basis of its GDP size. Many economies of the world depend upon the working upon it. However, US economy has been facing the phenomena of labour productivity slowdown since 1973. The productivity grow was witnessed during 1990s decade due to revolution of information technology but it was proved transitory. To investigate this phenomenon the economists have been actively working and using different theoretical and empirical approaches. But it is still an enigma and its real cause has so far not been detected. The objective of the Study: The objective of this research study is to investigate why US economy has been facing productivity growth slowdown since long, what are its causes and what is its possible solution?. Methodology: The author has used qualitative research approach in which real economy sector and technology economy sector have been studied on the basis of secondary data collected from OECD, IMF, World Bank,etc. The individual share of these sectors in the US GDP has been determined to analyze their effects on productivity growth. The author has also compared goods and services sectors and their contribution into the US GDP. Findings: The results of study shows that no breakthrough or major innovation has occurred in the major sector of US economy. Information technology is a small sector and growth in this sector during 1990s has not brought any signifi cant impact on the US economy. The evidence shows that quality of patents is falling despite increasing number of researchers during the period of 1990-2010 and it refl ects diminishing return on R&D investment in the technology sector. The ratio of input/output is 40/100 which is totally against the concept of constant return to scale.

Terms and Balance of Trade of Indian Agricultural Sector during Pre and Post-WTO Period

2020 ◽  
pp. 288-293
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Basmati Rice ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Unit Value ◽  
The Us ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Frozen Shrimp ◽  
Plantation Crops

India is the world’s third-largest economy after the US and China. India is also one of the leading producer of spices, fish, poultry, livestock and plantation crops, and leading exports consisted of basmati rice, meat of bovine animals, frozen shrimp and prawns, cotton and refined sugar. The study was based on secondary data collected from the various published sources, viz., various issues of handbook of RBI, FAO trade yearbook, Statistical Abstract of India, FAOSTAT, etc. The data were grouped into two periods Pre-WTO 1975-94 and Post-WTO 1995-2015.The exports volume indices for agricultural sector of India were increased by 129.41 percent from 17 in 1975 to 39 in 1994. Besides, the volume indices of imports declined by 56.16 percent from 73 in 1975 to 32 in 1994 for agricultural sector of India. The unit value indices of agricultural exports of India declined by 17.69 percent from 113 in 1975 to 93 in 1994. However, the agricultural import indices grew considerably 171.42 percent from 42 in 1975 to 114 in 1994.The quantity terms of trade for agricultural sector of India was deteriorated by 80.89 percent from 429.41 in 1975 to 82.05 in 1994. Likewise, value terms of trade for agricultural sector of India also depreciated by 67.44 percent from 269.05 in 1975 to 81.58 in 1994. The exports volume indices for agricultural sector of India were increased by 125 percent from 72 in 1995 to 162 in 2015. The volume indices of imports were also enlarged by 934.78 percent from 23 in 1995 to 238 in 2015 for agricultural sector of India. The unit value indices, which measure the average price realization, indicated a significant increase in unit value indices of agricultural exports of India turn up by 131.76 percent from 85 in 1995 to 197 in 2015. However, the agricultural import indices declined by 0.64 percent during post-WTO period. The quantity terms of trade, as well as value terms of trade for agricultural sector of India, was improved by 359.95 and 133.25 percent, respectively during post-WTO regime. The trade balance of Indian agricultural sector showed a favorable balance during pre-WTO period as well as post-WTO period.

The Thucydides Trap as an Alternative Explanation for the US–China Trade War

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imad A. Moosa
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Explanation ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
National Income ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Thucydides Trap ◽  
Trade War

The current trade war between the USA and China is perceived to be motivated by the US desire to curtail the bilateral trade deficit, on the assumption that reducing the deficit boosts economic growth. This flawed proposition indicates gross misunderstanding of the national income identity and the basic principles of macroeconomics. The imposition of tariffs will not reduce the trade deficit as the assumptions and conditions required for a smooth working of the process are unrealistic and counterfactual. The notion of an economic Thucydides trap is put forward to explain why the trade war is motivated by US apprehension about China’s rising economic power.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of the Determinants of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Indian Information Technology Industry: An Application of DEA-based Malmquist Index

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 175
Author(s):  
Prosenjit Das
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Returns To Scale ◽  
The Other ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
It Industry ◽  
The Us ◽  
Catch Up

Aim: India has emerged as one of the most favoured destinations in the global Information Technology (IT) outsourcing market. On the other hand, the IT industry has been playing an instrumental role in transforming India’s image from a low income-backward nation to a knowledge-based economy.  Furthermore, the role of IT industry has been pivotal in putting India on a higher growth path. In addition, India’s IT industry has been showing robust performance in revenue earning, particularly in export revenue. However, the performance of this industry is likely affected by some recent global phenomena, such as 2008’s subprime crisis originated in the US, uncertainties in changes in H1-B visa rules, Britain’s exit from the EU, automation etc. There are other factors, like exchange rate volatility, emerging competition from other low-cost outsourcing destination countries, are also posing threat to India’s IT-outsourcing business. Against this backdrop, it is crucial to analyse the sustainability of performance of Indian IT industry. Thus, the present study aims at assessing the performance of Indian IT industry and evaluating the determinants of performance thereafter.Design / Research methods: To realize the objectives of the study, firm level data has been collected from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Prowess database. For empirical analysis, we have applied a two-stage method. In the first-stage, we have used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) to evaluate the Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) of Indian IT industry during the period from 2004-05 to 2014-15. For this purpose, a balanced panel consists of 70 IT firms has been considered. Further, the TFPG has been decomposed into three components, viz. Catch-up, frontier-shift, and scale efficiency change (SEC). Consequently, in the second-stage, three random-effects panel regression models are considered to investigate the determinants of TFPG, catch-up, and frontier-shift separately. Conclusions / findings: During the study period, the average TFP and frontier-shift has been improved. On the other hand, catch up effect is found to have declined. The variables, such as export intensity, salaries and wages intensity have positive and statistically significant impact on the catch-up and frontier-shift. Export intensity has positive impact on TFPG. Age of the firms has positive impact on catch-up and TFPG. Salaries and wages intensity has positive impact on TFPG. On an average, the firms which spent on research and Development (R&D) have experienced improvement in TFPG and frontier-shift. The public limited firms performed better than their private counterparts in terms of catch-up, frontier-shift, and TFPG. The non-group firms have performed better than the group firms in case of catch-up. On the other hand, on an average, the firms exhibiting decreasing Returns to Scale (DRS) are found to have registered deterioration in catch-up and TFPG with respect to the benchmark firms which are exhibiting Constant Returns to Scale (CRS). The firms exhibiting Increasing Returns to Scale (IRS) have shown improvement in catch-up and TFPG over the benchmark CRS firms. The impact of the US subprime crisis has been negative on catch-up, frontier-shift, and TFPG. The firms, which have spent on royalty, have experienced improvement in catch-up and TFPG. Originality / value of the article: So far in our knowledge, not so many studies of this kind have been done in the arena of empirical research pertains to the IT industry, especially in a developing country like India. Moreover, we have not found any study that covers the span of the dataset considered in the present study. In addition to this, the present study has employed a random-effects panel model to accommodate a number of time-invariant dummy variables which would not be possible in case of a fixed-effects panel model incorporated by some previous studies of this genre.Implications of the research: The identification of the determinants of TFPG and its components would help the stakeholders and policy makers of the IT industry to formulate appropriate policies which could mitigate the risks faced by the industry on one hand, and stimulate the forces that would enhance the growth of this industry on the other. For instance, to mitigate future risks, Indian IT industry should reduce its dependence on the US and UK markets. Besides, it should explore new markets in the EU, and other emerging economies where opportunities are plenty. To maintain India’s robust global position in the long run, Government of India should play the key role in providing world class infrastructure and telecommunication facilities to its IT industry. In addition to this, Government needs to rationalise and simplify the existing Indian labour law to facilitate the business of IT industry. Various stakeholders along with the Government should put necessary efforts to develop the domestic IT market as there exists ample of opportunities in future. Keywords: information technology industry, data envelopment analysis, Malmquist productivity index, random-effects model, total factor productivity, catch-up, frontier-shift, India. JEL: C23, C61, L86, O47

Gender and Computing at University in the UK

2009 ◽  
pp. 1583-1590
Author(s):  
Ruth Woodfield
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Computer Science ◽  
Educational Level ◽  
The Us ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Women's Role ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Educational Field

In the late 1970s, women’s progress and participation in the more traditional scientific and technical fields, such as physics and engineering, was slow, prompting many feminist commentators to conclude that these areas had developed a nearunshakeable masculine bias. Although clearly rooted in the domains of science and technology, the advent of the computer was initially seen to challenge this perspective. It was a novel kind of artefact, a machine that was the subject of its own newly created field: “computer science” (Poster, 1990, p. 147). The fact that it was not quite subsumed within either of its parent realms led commentators to argue that computer science was also somewhat ambiguously positioned in relation to their identity as masculine. As such, it was claimed that its future trajectory as equally masculine could not be assumed, and the field of computing might offer fewer obstacles and more opportunities for women than they had experienced before. Early predictions of how women’s role in relation to information technology would develop were consequently often highly optimistic in tone. Computing was hailed as “sex-blind and colour-blind” (Williams, Cited in Griffths 1988, p. 145; see also Zientara, 1987) in support of a belief that women would freely enter the educational field, and subsequently the profession, as the 1980s advanced. During this decade, however, it became increasingly difficult to deny that this optimism was misplaced. The numbers of females undertaking undergraduate courses in the computer sciences stabilised at just over a fifth of each cohort through the 1980s and 1990s, and they were less likely to take them in the more prestigious or researchbased universities (Woodfield, 2000). Tracy Camp’s landmark article “The Incredible Shrinking Pipeline” (1997), using data up to 1994, plotted the fall-off of women in computer science between one educational level and the next in the US. It noted that “a critical point” was the drop-off before bachelor-level study—critical because the loss of women was dramatic, but also because a degree in computer science is often seen as one of the best preparatory qualifications for working within a professional IT role1. The main aim of this article is to examine how the situation has developed since 1994, and within the UK context. It will also consider its potential underlying causes, and possible routes to improvement.

Trends in Terminology

2022 ◽  
pp. 193-203
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Computer Science ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Internet ◽  
The Us ◽  
Key Concepts

The purpose of this chapter is to analyze and review trends in digital terminology. The chapter begins by examining the origins of computerization in the United States during the 19th and 20th centuries. Next, the chapter examines the key concepts punch cards and computer science. The chapter then discusses how the term computer science is misleading. This is followed by a discussion of how information technology became the most popular term in the US. The chapter then switches focus to Europe and discusses France's promotion of informatique as well as Europe's switch from informatics to ICT. Next, the chapter considers how the internet has given rise to terms like e-commerce. The chapter concludes by considering the transition from ICT to digital informing and informing technology.

Modelling sectoral spillovers in the USA (1992–2015)

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 561-595
Author(s):  
Konstantinos N. Konstantakis ◽  
Panayotis G. Michaelides ◽  
Theofanis Papageorgiou ◽  
Theodoros Daglis
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research paper uses a novel methodological approach to investigate the spillover effects among the key sectors of the US economy.Design/methodology/approachThe paper links the US sectors via a node theoretic scheme based on a general equilibrium framework, whereas it estimates the general equilibrium equation as a Global Vector Autoregressive process, taking into consideration the potential existence of dominant units.FindingsBased on our findings, the dominant sector in the US economy, for the period 1992–2015, is the sector of information technology, finance and communications, a fact that gives credence to the view that the US economy is a service-driven economy. In addition, the US economy seems to benefit by the increased labour mobility across knowledge-intensive sectors, thus avoiding the ‘employment trap’ which in turn enabled the US economy to overcome the financial crisis of 2007.Originality/valueFirstly, the paper models by means of a network approach which is based on a general equilibrium framework, the linkages between the US sectors while treating the sector of information, technology, communications and finance as dominant, as dictated by its degree of centrality in the network structure. Secondly, the paper offers a robustness analysis regarding both the existence and the identification of dominant sectors (nodes) in the US economy. Thirdly, the paper studies a wide period, namely 1992–2015, fully capturing the recent global recession, while acknowledging the impact of the global crisis through the introduction of the relevant exogenous dummy variables; Lastly and most importantly, it is the first study to apply the GVAR approach in a network general equilibrium framework at the sectoral level.

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