scholarly journals Interação dos Dispêndios de Publicidade com Ciclos Econômicos e o Valor da Empresa: Análise Empírica das Empresas Norte-Americanas do Setor de Bens de Consumo

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 283
Author(s):  
Graziela Fortunato ◽  
Walter Ness ◽  
Arilton Teixeira ◽  
Paulo Cesar Motta
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Business Cycle

This study aims to verify the contribution of advertising expenditures to firm value. To reach this goal, we considered business cycles, which follow a stochastic process and may influence the decision as to the amount to be spent in advertising. With the optimization of these expenditures under the business cycle effect, it is, in fact, possible to analyze whether the results positively contribute to firm value. Data from US companies of the consumer staples sector from 1997 to 2008 were employed to test the proposed model through multiple regression and panel data. The results indicate favorable evidences which confirm the proposed model.

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

scholarly journals Business cycles and earnings management strategies: a study in Brazilian public firms,

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (80) ◽  
pp. 216-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edilson Paulo ◽  
Renato Henrique Gurgel Mota
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Real Earnings Management ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Opportunistic Behavior ◽  
The Business Cycle

ABSTRACT This study contributes to the literature dealing with the influence of macroeconomic factors on accounting information quality, since it analyzes the earnings management strategies of firms, specifically identifying different discretionary behaviors among economic cycles: 1) different levels of earnings management through accruals between phases of the business cycle, and 2) the trade-off between earnings management through accruals and real earnings management. The results indicate that the accounting information reported should be analyzed with greater caution by its users, especially in periods of great economic oscillations, when managers can increase or reduce opportunistic behavior. The research population comprised non-financial companies with shares traded on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) and the sample was composed of 247 firms per year, covering the period from 2000 to 2015 and totaling 2,501 observations. The phases of business cycles were used as a proxy for the economic environment and were based on Schumpeter's (1939) study, which divides an business cycle into four distinct phases: expansion, recession, contraction, and recovery. Discretionary accruals were estimated according to the Pae (2005) and Paulo (2007) models. Real earnings management was estimated as described by Roychowdhury (2006), using only the abnormal behavior of production costs and operational decisions. The results of this research show that earnings management strategies, using either accruals or real manipulation, as well as the choice between these strategies, are impacted by the economic environment. The evidence suggests that managers have different opportunistic behavior in each phase of the business cycle. Specifically, they increase the level of discretionary accruals in contractionary phases and reduce it during recoveries, while they manage earnings downwards via real manipulation in recessions and contractions.

scholarly journals Stability and Bifurcation of a Delayed Time-Fractional Order Business Cycle Model with a General Liquidity Preference Function and Investment Function

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingkang Xie ◽  
Zhen Wang ◽  
Bo Meng
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Preference Function ◽  
Positive Equilibrium ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Investment Function ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Positive Equilibrium Point ◽  
Delayed Time

In this paper, the business cycle (BC) is described by a delayed time-fractional-order model (DTFOM) with a general liquidity preference function and an investment function. Firstly, the existence and uniqueness of the DTFOM solution are proven. Then, some conditions are presented to guarantee that the positive equilibrium point of DTFOM is locally stable. In addition, Hopf bifurcation is obtained by a new method, where the time delay is regarded as the bifurcation parameter. Finally, a numerical example of DTFOM is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and methods.

Book Reviews

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 538-540 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Early Years ◽  
African Studies ◽  
Intellectual Biography ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The University

Michael Assous of Universite Paris I Pantheon-Sorbonne P.H.A.R.E. reviews “Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography: Volume I, Rendezvous in Cambridge 1899–1939”, by Jan Toporowski. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Presents an intellectual biography of Polish economist Michal Kalecki, focusing on the years 1899–1939. Discusses the early years; the crucible of the Polish Revolution; economic journalism; a move to Warsaw; the Institute for the Study of Business Cycles and Prices; the socialist discussions; the enigma of the business cycle; Sweden; London; from London to Cambridge; seeking work again; the first synthesis of theory; Kalecki and his colleagues at the Cambridge Project; and shared ideas amid mutual incomprehension. Toporowski is with the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London.”

scholarly journals INTENSITAS PERDAGANGAN DAN KESELARASAN SIKLUS BISNIS DI ASEAN-4 DAN UNI EROPA *

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Etty Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Trade Intensity ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Monetary Policy Coordination ◽  
The Business Cycle

The main objective of this research is to empirically analyze how the business cycle of ASEAN-4 (namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines) economies are influenced by increased trade with European Union especially Netherland and Germany. Increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to be patterned in either direction, towards convergence or divergence. We used regression and vectorautoregression (VAR) methods for this research. Regression methods is based panel data whereas VAR is based on the time series analysis. There are four variables, which are business cycle, trade intensity, fiscal policy coordination and monetary policy coordination. This research conclude that trade intensity and monetary policy coordination are the major channel though which the business cycles of ASEAN-4 economies become synchronized. This has important implications for the formation of a currency union.

scholarly journals A Statistical Investigation of Business Cycles Characteristics in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol II (I) ◽  
pp. 73-84
Author(s):  
Niaz Ali ◽  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Asia Baig
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Statistical Investigation ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Nominal Variables

This study investigates the business cycle characteristics for Pakistan using three sets of variables namely expenditure components of GDP, nominal variables and real variables. The findings reveal that the volatility of expenditure components are greater than GDP during the full sample of 1973 to 2015. Whereas, in the Pre-SAP and Post-SAP periods i.e. 1973-1988 and 1989-2015, real variables and nominal variables show more volatility than GDP. And, in terms of co-movement, expenditure components of GDP showed strong pro-cyclicality and relationship with GDP against other sets of variables. Moreover, the nominal variables show positive persistence and the business cycles caused by it, lasting for a long time against real variables and expenditure components of GDP. Furthermore, the results show that the correlation between CPI and GDP across all periods is counter cyclical. The stability test results show that business cycles features remained stable during two time periods.

scholarly journals What do deviation cycles measure? An analysis of the informational content of filter-based business cycles

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Willem H. Boshoff ◽  
Lewis McLean
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Informational Content ◽  
Alternative Theory ◽  
Frequency Range ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Medium Frequency ◽  
Smoothing Filter ◽  
The Business Cycle

Background: Empirical business cycle research typically commences with the extraction of a so-called deviation cycle using a time-series smoothing filter. This methodology is appealing for its pragmatism; it is easy to implement, and the output it produces is conveniently interpreted as percentage deviations from the natural level of output. However, recent literature offers staunch criticism of deviation cycle analysis, especially with regards to the assumption implicitly underlying it – that business cycle fluctuations are restricted to distinct intervals on the frequency domain.Aim: Despite its lack of a basis in theory, the analysis of deviation cycles over particular frequency ranges may still yield useful stylised business cycle facts. This, however, hinges on whether the information that a frequency filter captures consistently aligns with relevant theory-based business cycle concepts. Whether this is the case is an empirical matter, and herein lies the rationale for our research.Setting: We investigate the informational content of South Africa’s output deviation cycles.Methods: We extract deviation cycles at standard high- and medium-frequency ranges (denoted as short- and medium-term deviation cycles respectively) and analyse their informational overlap with the components of an alternative theory-based estimate of the business cycle, decomposed into demand, supply, domestic and foreign sources of business cycle dynamics.Results: Our findings suggest that the contents of deviation cycles extracted over a high-frequency range do not neatly correspond to the transitory ‘demand-driven’ business cycle, while cycles extracted over a medium-frequency range correspond closely to the combined path of permanent output shocks.Conclusion: One should thus be cautious of drawing strong conclusions about the nature of business cycles from filter-based deviation cycle estimates, particularly if the objective of the study relies on assuming that high-frequency deviation cycles correspond to transitory demand shocks.

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