Refining livestock mortality indicators: a systematic review

Background: Livestock mortality impacts farmer livelihoods and household nutrition. Capturing trends in livestock mortality at localised or national levels is essential to planning, monitoring and evaluating interventions and programs aimed at decreasing mortality rates. However, livestock mortality data is disparate, and indicators used have not been standardised. This review aims to assess livestock mortality indicator definitions reported in literature, and define the ages where mortality has greatest impact. Methods: A systematic review was conducted, limited to articles focussed on mortality of cattle, sheep and goats. Peer-reviewed articles in Web of Science until year 2020 were assessed for inclusion of age-based definitions for mortality indicators and data on age distribution of mortality. Indicator definitions for each species were collated and similar terms and age groups most targeted were compared. The cumulative distribution of age at mortality was compared across studies graphically where possible; otherwise, age patterns for mortality were collated. Results: Most studies reported mortality risk rather than rate, and there was little agreement between indicator definitions used in the literature. The most common indicators reported were perinatal and neonatal mortality in cattle, and for perinatal, neonatal and pre-weaning mortality indicators for sheep and goats. Direct comparison of age distribution of mortality was only possible for cattle, which found that approximately 80% of all mortalities within the first 12 months had occurred by six months of age. A significant finding of the study is the variation in age groups for which mortality is reported, which impedes the comparison of mortality risk across studies, particularly for sheep and goats. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the importance and value of standardising mortality risk indicators for general use, including a young stock mortality risk indicator measuring mortality in the highest risk period of birth to six months of age in cattle, sheep and goats.

Download Full-text

A systematic review and meta-analysis on the incubation period of Campylobacteriosis

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268817001303 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 145 (11) ◽

pp. 2241-2253 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

A. AWOFISAYO-OKUYELU ◽

I. HALL ◽

G. ADAK ◽

J.I. HAWKER ◽

S. ABBOTT ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Incubation Period ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Age Groups ◽

Experimental Studies ◽

Public Health Policies ◽

Explanatory Factors ◽

Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽

The Mean

AbstractAccurate knowledge of pathogen incubation period is essential to inform public health policies and implement interventions that contribute to the reduction of burden of disease. The incubation period distribution of campylobacteriosis is currently unknown with several sources reporting different times. Variation in the distribution could be expected due to host, transmission vehicle, and organism characteristics, however, the extent of this variation and influencing factors are unclear. The authors have undertaken a systematic review of published literature of outbreak studies with well-defined point source exposures and human experimental studies to estimate the distribution of incubation period and also identify and explain the variation in the distribution between studies. We tested for heterogeneity using I2 and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests, regressed incubation period against possible explanatory factors, and used hierarchical clustering analysis to define subgroups of studies without evidence of heterogeneity. The mean incubation period of subgroups ranged from 2·5 to 4·3 days. We observed variation in the distribution of incubation period between studies that was not due to chance. A significant association between the mean incubation period and age distribution was observed with outbreaks involving only children reporting an incubation of 1·29 days longer when compared with outbreaks involving other age groups.

Download Full-text

Epidemiological profile of early childhood caries in a sub-urban population in Nigeria

BMC Oral Health ◽

10.1186/s12903-021-01780-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan ◽

Ayodeji Babatunde Oginni ◽

Maha El Tantawi ◽

Tracy L. Finlayson ◽

Abiola Adeniyi

Keyword(s):

Early Childhood ◽

Early Childhood Caries ◽

Age Groups ◽

Assessment System ◽

Risk Indicators ◽

Risk Indicator ◽

Age Group ◽

The Mean ◽

Cavitated Lesions ◽

Childhood Caries

Abstract Background The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and severity of early childhood caries (ECC) in children 6–71-months; identify the teeth most at risk for ECC; and identify risk indicators associated with significant caries index (SiC) score in different age groups. Methods This was a cross-sectional study that collected data (using a household survey) on the ECC risk indicators (frequency of tooth brushing, consumption of refined carbohydrate in-between-meals, daily use of fluoridated toothpaste, and dental service utilization in the 12 months) in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. We computed the prevalence of ECC using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDASI (d1–6)) index; caries severity using the ICDAS-2(d1–2) and ICDAS-3(d3–6) for non-cavitated and cavitated lesions respectively, decayed missing, filled teeth (dmft), and surfaces (dmfs) and SiC indices; and caries complications using the pulp (p), ulceration (u), fistula (f) and abscesses (a) (pufa) index, for children 6–11-months-old, 12–23-months-old, 23–35-months-old, 35–47-months-old; 48–59-months-old and 60–71-months-old. The differences in the mean dmft, dmfs, pufa scores, and ICDAS 1, 2, and 3 scores, and proportion of children with each ECC risk indicator were computed. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk indicators for the ECC SiC index score for each age group. Results The prevalence of ECC was 4.7%: 2.9% had non-cavitated lesions and 2.8% had cavitated lesions. The mean (SD) dmft, dmfs and pufa scores were 0.13 (0.92), 0.24 (1.91) and 0.04 (0.46) respectively. The dmft and dmfs scores were highest among the 24–35-months-olds while the SiC score was highest among the 12–23-months-olds. There were no significant differences in dmft, dmfs, and pufa scores between the different age groups. Toothbrushing more than once a day was the only factor associated with the SiC score: it decreases the odds for the SiC score in children 48–59-months-old. The teeth worst affected by ECC were #85 and #61. Conclusion The prevalence, severity and risk indicator for ECC seems to differ for each age group. The granular details on the risk profile of children with ECC in this population with a low ECC prevalence and burden can allow for the planning of age-targeted interventions.

Download Full-text

Future Projections of Heat Mortality Risk for Major European Cities due to Heat Waves

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9181 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alexia Karwat ◽

Christian L. E. Franzke

Keyword(s):

Mortality Risk ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Future Climate ◽

Risk Indicators ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Future Projections ◽

The Future ◽

Future Climate Projections

<p>Over the last few decades heat waves have intensified, become more common, pose severe health risks, especially in densely populated cities, and have led to excess mortality. While the probability of being adversely affected by heat stress has significantly increased over the last few decades, the risk of heat mortality is rarely quantified. This quantification of heat mortality risk is necessary for systematic adaptation measures. Furthermore, heat mortality records are sparse and short, which presents a challenge for assessing heat mortality risk for future climate projections. It is therefore crucial to derive indicators for a systematic heat mortality risk assessment. Here, risk indicators based on temperature and mortality data are developed and applied to major cities in Germany, France and Spain, using regional climate model simulations. These simulations have biases of up to 3&#176;C with respect to observations and, thus, need to be bias-corrected. Bias-corrected daily maximum, minimum and wet-bulb temperatures show increasing trends in future climate projections for most considered cities. Additionally, we derive a relationship of daily maximum temperatures and mortality for producing future projections of heat mortality risk due to extreme temperatures based on low (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenario future climate projections. Our results illustrate that heat mortality increases by about 0.9%/decade in Germany, 1.7%/decade in France and 7.9%/decade in Spain for RCP8.5 by 2050. The future climate projections also show that wet-bulb temperatures above 30&#176;C will be reached regularly with maxima above 40&#176;C likely by 2050. Our results suggest a significant increase of heat mortality in the future, especially in Spain. On average, our results indicate that the mortality risk trend is almost twice as high in all three countries for the RCP8.5 scenario compared to RCP2.6.</p>

Download Full-text

Mortality from Alcoholic Cardiomyopathy: Exploring the Gap between Estimated and Civil Registry Data

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm8081137 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (8) ◽

pp. 1137 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Jakob Manthey ◽

Jürgen Rehm

Keyword(s):

Pearson Correlation ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Age Groups ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Alcohol Exposure ◽

The Elderly ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Alcoholic Cardiomyopathy ◽

Mortality Estimates

Background: Based on civil registries, 26,000 people died from alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) in 2015 globally. In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, garbage coded deaths were redistributed to ACM, resulting in substantially higher ACM mortality estimates (96,669 deaths, 95% confidence interval: 82,812–97,507). We aimed to explore the gap between civil registry and GBD mortality data, accounting for alcohol exposure as a cause of ACM. Methods: ACM mortality rates were obtained from civil registries and GBD for n = 77 countries. The relationship between registered and estimated mortality rates was assessed by sex and age groups, using Pearson correlation coefficients, in addition to comparing mortality rates with population alcohol exposure—the underlying cause of ACM. Results: Among people aged 65 years or older, civil registry mortality rates of ACM decreased markedly whereas GBD mortality rates increased. The widening gap of registered and estimated mortality rates in the elderly is reflected in a decrease of correlations. The age distribution of alcohol exposure is more consistent with the distribution of civil registry rather than GBD mortality rates. Conclusions: Among older adults, GBD mortality estimates of ACM seem implausible and are inconsistent with alcohol exposure. The garbage code redistribution algorithm should include alcohol exposure for ACM and other alcohol-attributable diseases.

Download Full-text

Care need and dry mouth as risk indicators for impaired taste and smell

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-99978-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mara-Zoe Hummelsheim ◽

Stefanie Hamacher ◽

Anna Hagemeier ◽

Michael Johannes Noack ◽

Anna Greta Barbe

Keyword(s):

Age Groups ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Risk Indicators ◽

Dry Mouth ◽

Risk Indicator ◽

Care Needs ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Saliva Secretion ◽

Taste And Smell ◽

Chronic Comorbidities

AbstractTo identify whether reduced saliva secretion or xerostomia symptoms are risk indicators for impaired taste and smell, depending on age and care needs. This cross-sectional study evaluated taste and smell in patients categorized into different age groups (<65> years) and different care need, with and without dry mouth. Of the 185 patients included, 119 were classified as “dry mouth” and 66 as “without dry mouth”. Overall, 103 (55.7%) were female and 37 (20%) needed care. There was no difference between “dry mouth” and “without dry mouth” regarding identification of odors or tastes, but a difference in the number of correctly identified odors and tastes in favor of “without care need” patients (p < 0.05). The ability to identify smells and tastes was negatively influenced by age, number of medications, and number of comorbidities, but subjective dry mouth had no impact. According to our results, subjective dry mouth is not a risk factor for an impaired ability to recognize smells and tastes. However, care need representing age, the number of medications taken, and the number of chronic comorbidities is a risk indicator.

Download Full-text

NPP Risk Assessments Results Dependence Study on the Composition of the Population Living Around the NPP (on the Example of Rostov and Kalinin NPP)

10.30987/graphicon-2019-2-285-289 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Сергей Золотарев ◽

Sergei Zolotarev ◽

Мария Берберова ◽

Mariya Berberova

Keyword(s):

Power Plants ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Methodological Approach ◽

Radiation Risk ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Age Groups ◽

Economic Indicators ◽

Risk Indicators ◽

Age Composition ◽

Increased Risk

Nuclear power plants, being complex technological systems, represent a source of increased risk, in particular, a specific risk of radiation exposure. Obtaining quantitative assessments of radiation risk is critical for risk reduction and accident prevention. Existing methods for assessing radiation risk do not take into account the influence of external factors, such as population composition, geographical features, anthropogenic environmental changes, etc. The result of the risk analysis is the assessment of physical and economic indicators for the Rostov and Kalinin NPPs, taking into account the age composition of the population, as the most significant parameter. Based on a comparison of the estimates obtained with the results without taking into account the age distribution, recommendations are given on the use of adjusted estimates when developing measures to reduce risk and mitigate the consequences for the most sensitive age groups of the population (1-12 years). The objective of the work is to modify the methodological approach to the calculation of radiation risk indicators of the population, taking into account the age composition and the practical application of the formulas for assessing the physical and economic indicators of damage to real objects.

Download Full-text

A Helminth Survey of Sheep and Goats in Cyprus. Part II. Age Distribution and the Severity of Infection with Gastro-Intestinal Parasites

Journal of Helminthology ◽

10.1017/s0022149x00026523 ◽

1973 ◽

Vol 47 (3) ◽

pp. 251-262 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

P. D. Le Riche ◽

G. C. Efstathiou ◽

Y. Altan ◽

J. B. Campbell

Keyword(s):

Haemonchus Contortus ◽

Intestinal Parasites ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Age Groups ◽

Animal Husbandry ◽

Point System ◽

Mixed Infections ◽

Unexpected Finding ◽

Secondary Importance ◽

Sheep And Goats

889 alimentary tracts from sheep and goats were examined for worms during 1970 and 1971.The severity of infection with each of the worm species is discussed and it is concluded that infections with Ostertagia spp. and Trichostrongylus spp. are the most important and that Haemonchus contortus, Bunostomum trigonocephalum and Chabertia ovina are of secondary importance.The animals were divided into different age groups and a study was made of the severity of mixed infections in each group. The point system adopted by Parnell et al. (1954) was used for the study.The most unexpected finding was that lambs and kids under 8 months old rarely suffered from infections of any significance. Infections built up slowly after that age. It was therefore presumed that animals remained vulnerable to infections at a much later age than in other countries.Infections that might cause sub-clinical disease were seen in 31% of all animals and heavier infections were seen in 20% of the animals. This was considered a conservative estimate and shows the importance of gastro-intestinal parasites in sheep and goats in Cyprus.Adult sheep appeared to be more heavily infected than goats, although some differences in animal husbandry between the two may have contributed to this.From this study of age distribution, it was found that the autumn peak in the infection rate was not caused by the infection of young animals, which remained low at this time of the year.

Download Full-text

Association of smoking reduction and mortality: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal observational studies

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-039483 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. e039483

Author(s):

Henri-Jean Aubin ◽

Laetitia Ali Oicheih ◽

Sonia Gabriel ◽

Ivan Berlin

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Smoking Cessation ◽

Mortality Risk ◽

Observational Studies ◽

Secondary Outcome ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Smoking Rate ◽

Smoking Reduction ◽

Sustained Reduction ◽

Longitudinal Observational Studies

IntroductionStrong evidence shows that smoking cessation decreases mortality. Much less is known regarding the association between reduction in cigarettes per day (CPD) and mortality. The primary aim of this systematic review is to compare the mortality risk between smokers achieving a sustained reduction of CPD and smokers maintaining their smoking rate. The secondary aims are to compare the mortality risk between smokers achieving complete, sustained smoking cessation and (1) smokers maintaining their smoking rate and (2) smokers who achieved a sustained reduction in smoking rate.Methods and analysisMEDLINE, Web of Sciences and Embase will be searched using a prespecified search strategy, up to 23 November 2020, and will be limited to studies published in English and in French. Longitudinal observational studies using individual data including smokers with at least two distant CPD assessments and a follow-up period of systematic mortality data recording will be included. The main outcome will be the all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome will be specific mortality. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale will be used to assess the risk of bias of individual studies. Outcomes will be analysed using HRs. All other outcomes’ effect size reported in included studies will be converted in HRs using validated methods.Ethics and disseminationWe intend to publish the results of our review in a peer-reviewed journal and to present the findings at national and international meetings and conferences.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42019138354.

Download Full-text

Future Projections of Heat Mortality Risk for Major European Cities

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-20-0142.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alexia Karwat ◽

Christian L. E. Franzke

Keyword(s):

Mortality Risk ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Future Climate ◽

Risk Indicators ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Future Projections ◽

The Future ◽

Future Climate Projections

AbstractOver the last few decades heat waves have intensified and have led to excess mortality. While the probability of being affected by heat stress has significantly increased, the risk of heat mortality is rarely quantified. This quantification of heat mortality risk is necessary for systematic adaptation measures. Furthermore, heat mortality records are sparse and short, which presents a challenge for assessing heat mortality risk for future climate projections. It is therefore crucial to derive indicators for a systematic heat mortality risk assessment. Here, risk indicators based on temperature and mortality data are developed and applied to major cities in Germany, France and Spain, using regional climate model simulations. Bias-corrected daily maximum, minimum and wet-bulb temperatures show increasing trends in future climate projections for most considered cities. Additionally, we derive a relationship between daily maximum temperatures and mortality for producing future projections of heat mortality risk due to extreme temperatures based on low (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenario future climate projections. Our results illustrate that heat mortality increases by about 0.9%/decade in Germany, 1.7%/decade in France and 7.9%/decade in Spain for RCP8.5 by 2050. The future climate projections also show that wet-bulb temperatures above 30°C will be reached regularly with maxima above 40°C likely by 2050. Our results suggest a significant increase of heat mortality in the future, especially in Spain. On average, our results indicate that the mortality risk trend is almost twice as high in all three countries for the RCP8.5 scenario compared to RCP2.6.

Download Full-text

Inequalities and Impact of Socioeconomic-Cultural Factors in Suicide Rates Across Italy

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910/a000084 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 32 (4) ◽

pp. 178-185 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Maurizio Pompili ◽

Marco Innamorati ◽

Monica Vichi ◽

Maria Masocco ◽

Nicola Vanacore ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Suicide Rate ◽

Age Groups ◽

Premature Death ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Italian Population ◽

Comprehensive Overview ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Younger Age ◽

Age And Sex

Background: Suicide is a major cause of premature death in Italy and occurs at different rates in the various regions. Aims: The aim of the present study was to provide a comprehensive overview of suicide in the Italian population aged 15 years and older for the years 1980–2006. Methods: Mortality data were extracted from the Italian Mortality Database. Results: Mortality rates for suicide in Italy reached a peak in 1985 and declined thereafter. The different patterns observed by age and sex indicated that the decrease in the suicide rate in Italy was initially the result of declining rates in those aged 45+ while, from 1997 on, the decrease was attributable principally to a reduction in suicide rates among the younger age groups. It was found that socioeconomic factors underlined major differences in the suicide rate across regions. Conclusions: The present study confirmed that suicide is a multifaceted phenomenon that may be determined by an array of factors. Suicide prevention should, therefore, be targeted to identifiable high-risk sociocultural groups in each country.

Download Full-text