scholarly journals A look into the future: System-dynamic modeling of the political transformation of regional elites (Russia, 2021–2035)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-55
Author(s):  
D. Zhukov ◽  
Dmitriy Sel'cer
Keyword(s):  
Computer Experiments ◽  
System Dynamic ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
Future System ◽  
Acceptable Quality ◽  
Substitution System ◽  
European Part Of Russia ◽  
Federal Center

The purpose of this study is to examine the ways in which the Russian regional administrative and political elites can change in 2021–2035. The authors attempted not only to find the most positive variants, but also to assess their probability and to describe the conditions for their implementation. There are seven predictive scenarios for the development of regional elites, which were constructed as a result of computer experiments with a system-dynamic model. The developed model is implemented in Powersim Studio 10. The model encompasses the main mechanisms and channels for recruiting elites as well as actors that have influenced the elite substitution system. The study is a follow-up to the work that was published in the Journal of Political Research and devoted to realistic and counterfeit scenarios of elite transformation in 1985–2019. The geographic framework within which the model can be applied spans — with some caveats — the European part of Russia. Modeling showed that some predictive scenarios are negative and even catastrophic for the progress of regional elites and for relations «federal center — regions». Moreover, such scenarios can be initiated not only by some unlikely events like the «Russian Maidan» (Ukrainization scenario), but also by erroneous actions of the federal government (Regency scenario). It has been revealed that the introduction of unified principles of monitoring and analysis, as well as centralized personnel management (Technocracy scenario) in the regions can solve all three key problems of elite evolution — namely, maintaining elite loyalty, achieving their acceptable quality, and gaining legitimacy.

scholarly journals SYSTEM AND DYNAMIC MODEL OF REPRODUCTION OF THE REGIONAL ELITES IN THE USSR AND RUSSIA

2020 ◽  
pp. 90-102
Author(s):  
D.S. Zhukov ◽  
S.K. Lyamin ◽  
N.S. Barabash
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Computer Experiment ◽  
System Dynamic ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Social Environments ◽  
Subject Field ◽  
Substitution System ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Stocks And Flows ◽  
System Information

The article presents a system-dynamic model of the transformation of Russian regional administrative and political elites in 1985–2019. The model is implemented through the Powersim Studio program. To build the model, the mechanisms and channels of recruiting elites were analyzed, as well as the actors (social and political forces) that influenced the elite substitution system. Information about the object of modeling is formalized in the form of a diagram of stocks and flows. The mathematical apparatus is presented. The model allows simulating the replenishment of elites by people from different social environments and, accordingly, the dynamics of the compo-sition of elites. As an example, one of the alternative – counterfactual – scenarios of the evolution of elites, which was formed during a computer experiment with a model, is considered. The results of the study indicate a high heuristic productivity of system-dynamic modeling in the sociopolitical subject field.

System-dynamic model of power redistribution among several subjects

2021 ◽  
pp. 52-57
Author(s):  
D.S. Zhukov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Dynamic Modeling ◽  
Computer Experiments ◽  
System Dynamic ◽  
System Dynamic Model ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Stocks And Flows ◽  
Specialized Program

A simple model simulating the redistribution of decision-making functions between the state, business, bureaucracy and regional elites is presented. The methodological basis of the work is system-dynamic modeling. The model is implemented in the specialized program Powersim Studio 10. A diagram of stocks and flows is considered, all elements of which were compared with certain political science concepts. The mathematical apparatus of the model is described. Some results of computer experiments are presented: these results indicate the operability and interpretability of the model.

scholarly journals OSTEOPETROSIS AND ENDOPROSTHETICS - CLINICAL OBSERVATIONS

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 65-72
Author(s):  
NS S Nikolaev ◽  
LV V Borisova ◽  
SN N Didichenko ◽  
NV V Bezludnaya ◽  
IB B Bashkova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Federal State ◽  
Dominant Form ◽  
Patient’S Satisfaction ◽  
Prosthetic Joints ◽  
Clinical Observations ◽  
Autosomal Dominant Form ◽  
Positive Results ◽  
Federal Center

Aim - to evaluate the efficacy of treatment of secondary arthrosis of the coxofemoral joints associated with osteopetrosis using arthroplasty. Materials and methods - clinical observation of two cases of treatment of patients with autosomal dominant form of osteopetrosis who underwent total hip arthroplasty at the Federal State Budgetary Institution Federal Center of Traumatology, Orthopaedics and Endoprosthesis replacement (Cheboksary). Results. We obtained positive results and patient’s satisfaction with the function of prosthetic joints with a follow-up period of 3.5 years. This method of treatment showed its efficacy during the specified follow-up period. Arthroplasty provides relief from pain, improved quality of life and increased mobility of the joint for patients with coxarthrosis associated with osteopetrosis.

scholarly journals Rate of Change in Bruch’s Membrane Opening-Minimum Rim Width and Peripapillary RNFL in Early Normal Tension Glaucoma

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 2321
Author(s):  
Hyun-kyung Cho ◽  
Changwon Kee
Keyword(s):  
Normal Tension Glaucoma ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Mean Deviation ◽  
Bruch's Membrane ◽  
Bruch’S Membrane ◽  
Fiber Layer ◽  
Acceptable Quality ◽  
Bruch’S Membrane Opening ◽  
Better Than

Background: to investigate the rate of change (ROC) of Bruch’s membrane opening minimum rim width (BMO-MRW) and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness in early normal tension glaucoma (NTG) patients. Methods: in this longitudinal cohort study, 115 subjects (115 eyes) diagnosed as early NTG (mean deviation > −6.0 dB) and who had completed more than five times of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) tests with acceptable quality were included. Measurement of BMO-MRW and RNFL were performed at 3-month intervals by OCT. Linear mixed-effects model was employed to calculate the ROC in global region and six Garway-Heath sectors with adjusting age, sex, and BMO area. Results: Average follow-up was 20.99 ± 6.99 months with OCT number of 7.54 ± 2.12. Baseline intraocular pressure was 14.72 ± 2.70 mmHg and MD was −2.73 ± 2.26 dB. ROC of global BMO-MRW was −2.06 ± 0.65 µm/yr and RNFL was −0.96 ± 0.16 µm/yr (p = 0.098). The most rapid ROC was in inferotemporal sector (BMO-MRW: −3.02 ± 0.88 µm/yr, RNFL: −1.96 ± 0.36 µm/yr) followed by superotemporal sector. Conclusion: The ROC of BMO-MRW, the new parameter along with that of RNFL should be considered in the management of early NTG. BMO-MRW may show visible reduction ROC better than RNFL to detect early progression in early NTG when visual field may not show significant change.

scholarly journals Clinical Feasibility of Fully Sintered (Y, Nb)-TZP for CAD-CAM Single-Unit Restoration: A Pilot Study

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 2762
Author(s):  
Ki-Won Jeong ◽  
Hyung-In Yoon ◽  
Jae-Hyun Lee ◽  
In-Sung Luke Yeo ◽  
Dae-Joon Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Single Unit ◽  
Clinical Performance ◽  
Tetragonal Zirconia ◽  
Biological Properties ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Probing Depth ◽  
Acceptable Quality ◽  
Cad Cam ◽  
Periodontal Probing

Fifteen participants (9 male, 6 female) received a total of 15 monolithic single restorations made from fully sintered (Y, Nb)-TZP (tetragonal zirconia polycrystal) block. The restorations were clinically evaluated for survival, success rate, and periodontal probing depths 6 months after the insertion of the restorations. Esthetic, functional, and biological evaluations were also performed over a 6-month follow-up period. The survival and success rates of the single-unit restorations were 100%. The periodontal probing depth values ranged from 1 to 3 mm. No complications with regard to functional and biological properties were observed after 6 months. The postoperative sensitivity was only a transient phenomenon. The fully sintered (Y, Nb)-TZP single-unit restoration showed highly acceptable quality with successful clinical performance over 6 months.

Global Edge

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Portes ◽  
Ariel C. Armony
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Global City ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
Us South ◽  
Cultural Economic ◽  
Process Of Change ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Us

Over the last quarter of a century, no other city like Miami has rapidly transformed into a global city. This book charts the social tensions and unexpected consequences of this remarkable process of change. Acting as a follow-up to City on the Edge, this book examines Miami in the context of globalization and scrutinizes its newfound place as a stellar international city. The book examines Miami's rise as a finance and banking center without parallel in the US South to the simultaneous emergence of a highly diverse but contentious ethnic mosaic. The book serves as a case study of Miami's present cultural, economic, and political transformation, and describes how its future course can provide key lessons for other metropolitan areas throughout the world.

scholarly journals Do Patients Profit from Third Time CABG?

2009 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. OJCS.S2277
Author(s):  
Malakh Shrestha ◽  
Hassina Baraki ◽  
Nawid Khaladj ◽  
Nurbur Koigeldiyev ◽  
Axel Haverich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
General Population ◽  
Operative Mortality ◽  
Short Form ◽  
Single Centre ◽  
Heart Insufficiency ◽  
Sf 36 ◽  
Acceptable Quality

Introduction It has been shown that in experienced hands repeated CABG is doable procedure. However the quality of life after third time CABG has not been evaluated so far. Patients and Methods The peri-operative data of 25 (22 male, mean age of 65.5 ± 8.0 years) consecutive patients in a single centre undergoing third time-CABG from 4/96 to 11/06 were studied. Quality of life (QoL) was assessed by Short Form (SF)-36 Questionnaire. Results 30 day mortality was 12% (3/25). Seven died during follow-up. In 15 survivors median follow-up was 94 months (2–122 months). 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival were 77.8%, 65.0%, and 53.1%, respectively. Present NYHA status was significantly improved in comparison to preoperative values (2.4 ± 0.8 vs. 3.2 ± 0.56, p = 0.012). QoL was comparable with an age matched general population with heart insufficiency. Conclusion Third time CABG can be performed with acceptable peri-operative mortality. Significant improvement of NYHA status and acceptable quality of life results justifies our surgical approach in this challenging patient cohort.

The Limits of Foreign Authority

2020 ◽  
pp. 33-63
Author(s):  
Andrew C. Gilbert
Keyword(s):  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
State Building ◽  
State Of Exception ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Nation State ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
Foreign State ◽  
The Media

This chapter shows how foreign officials, like the High Representative and a range of Bosnian political elites, used mass publicity to legitimize and authorize their state-building actions and delegitimize those of their opponents. It investigates how Wolfgang Petritsch used the media to engage domestic politicians in attempts to guide their behavior toward foreign state-building goals, even as they sought to shape his actions to serve their own goals. In doing so, the chapter identifies political innovations as well as important limits to internationally instigated political transformation. In discursively stabilizing the ambivalence of his position, Petritsch relied upon and reproduced an image of postwar Bosnia and Herzegovina as caught in a transitory temporality, a temporary state of exception to the normal nation-state order of things. Operating according to a logic of ambivalence afforded Petritsch a calculated flexibility to tack back and forth between various positions of legitimacy and authority.

scholarly journals SCENARIOS OF TRANSFORMATION OF REGIONAL ELITES IN THE LATE SOVIET AND POST-SOVIET PERIODS: RESULTS OF SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODELING

2020 ◽  
pp. 96-107
Author(s):  
D.S. Zhukov ◽  
D.G. Seltser ◽  
N.S. Barabash
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Dynamic Modeling ◽  
System Dynamic ◽  
System Dynamic Model ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Software Environment ◽  
Nomenclature System ◽  
Rapid Degradation ◽  
Systemic Problems ◽  
Elite Recruitment

The article presents realistic and alternative (counterfactual) scenarios for the development of regional administrative and political elites in Russia in 1985-2004. The scenarios are built using a system-dynamic model that simulates elite recruitment in the Powersim Studio software environment. The model describes the mechanisms and channels for recruiting managerial personnel, as well as the sociopolitical forces that influenced elite substitution. Experiments with the model allow us to explore different variants of the evolution of elites. The counterfactual scenario proceeds from the hypothetical refusal of M.S. Gorbachev from dismantling the nomenclature system and from eliminating the CPSU’s control over the «placement of personnel». The model demonstrates that in this case, there was no rapid degradation of regional elites (as was the case in the realistic scenario). However, by the beginning of the 2000s, other systemic problems arose due to the gap between the principles of forming the management apparatus and the transforming socio-economic realities.

scholarly journals The Association Between Parents’ Socio-Economic Status and the Level of Religiosity Among Undergraduates

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 98
Author(s):  
Olatunji Olabimpe Ajoke ◽  
Idemudia Erhabor Sunday
Keyword(s):  
Parental Education ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Aggressive Approach ◽  
Socio Economic Status ◽  
Duke University ◽  
Professional Occupation ◽  
Post Hoc

This study assessed the influence of parents’ socio-economic status on the level of religiosity in a sample of Nigerian undergraduates. A convenience sample of 200 students (mean age = 20.41 ± 2.54) participated in the study. Two structured scales were used which included Kuppuswanny’s scale and Duke University Religiosity Index. Data were analysed using one way ANOVA. Findings showed that the parental education, occupation and income significantly influenced the level of religiosity. A follow-up post-hoc analysis using Fisher’s LSD showed that participants whose parents were employed in non-professional occupation with lower education and poorer income were more religious compared to their counterparts whose parents had higher education, higher income and engaged in professional occupations. The study recommended that the upcoming generation of youth should utilize an objective, practical, and aggressive approach as a means to achieve better socio-economic and political transformation rather than using religion practises.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document