Distributed-lag models of long-term health effects of exposure to industrial air pollution in the Taranto area (Southern Italy)

This article marks the first attempt on Polish and European scale to identify the relationship between urban and industrial air pollution and the health conditions of urban populations, while also estimating the financial burden of incidence rates among urban populations for diseases selected in the course of this study as having a causal relation with such incidence. This paper presents the findings of a pilot study based on general regression models, intended to explore air pollutants with a statistically relevant impact on the incidence of selected diseases within the Agglomeration of Gdańsk in the years 2010–2018. In discussing the city’s industrial functions, the study takes into consideration the existence within its limits of a large port that services thousands of ships every year, contributing substantially to the volume of emissions (mainly NOx and PM) to the air. The causes considered include the impact of air pollution, seasonality, land- and sea-based emissions, as well as their mutual interactions. All of the factors and their interactions have a significant impact (p ≤ 0.05) on the incidence of selected diseases in the long term (9 years). The source data were obtained from the Polish National Health Fund (NFZ), the Agency for Regional Monitoring of Atmosphere in the Agglomeration of Gdańsk (ARMAAG), the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection (GIOŚ), and the Port of Gdańsk Harbourmaster. The study used 60 variables representing the diseases, classified into 19 groups. The resulting findings were used to formulate a methodology for estimating the financial burden of the negative health effects of air pollution for the agglomeration, and will be utilized as a reference point for further research in selected regions of Poland.

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Using distributed lag models to predict regional budget revenues

Economic Analysis Theory and Practice ◽

10.24891/ea.19.6.1154 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 19 (6) ◽

pp. 1154-1172

Author(s):

Yu.V. Granitsa

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Consumer Price Index ◽

Mathematical Methods ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Key Indicator ◽

Distributed Lag Models ◽

Regional Budget ◽

The Impact ◽

Financial Result

Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models. Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors. Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis. Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term. Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.

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Analysis and Forecasts of the Demand for Imported Wine in China

Cornell Hospitality Quarterly ◽

10.1177/1938965520981070 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 193896552098107

Author(s):

Anyu Liu ◽

Haiyan Song

Keyword(s):

Single Equation ◽

Specific Model ◽

Specific Method ◽

Sparkling Wine ◽

Econometric Methods ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Distributed Lag Models ◽

Wine Market ◽

Wine Demand

The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term determinants of China’s imported wine demand and to forecast wine imports from 2019 to 2023 using econometric methods. Auto-regressive distributed lag models are developed based on neoclassical economic demand theory to investigate the long-term determinants of China’s demand for imported bottled, bulk, and sparkling wine from the top five countries of origin. The empirical results demonstrate that income is the most important determinant of China’s imported wine demand, and that price only plays a significant role in a few markets. Substitute and complement effects are identified between wines from different countries of origin and between imported wines and other liquids. China’s imported wine demand is expected to maintain its rapid growth over the forecast period. Bottled wine will continue to dominate China’s imported wine market. France will have the largest market share in the bottled wine market, Spain will be the largest provider of bulk wine, and Italy will hold the same position for sparkling wine. This is the first study to use a single equation with the general to specific method rather than a system of equations to estimate and forecast China’s demand for imported bottled, bulk, and sparkling wines from different countries of origin. The more specific model setting for each country of origin improves forecasting accuracy.

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Respiratory health effects of industrial air pollution: a study in east Lancashire, UK.

Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health ◽

10.1136/jech.50.6.631 ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 50 (6) ◽

pp. 631-635 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

S E Ginns ◽

A C Gatrell

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Health Effects ◽

Respiratory Health ◽

Industrial Air Pollution

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The link between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey: Evidence from dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag simulations

10.21203/rs.3.rs-222964/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alper Aslan ◽

BUKET ALTINOZ ◽

BAKİ OZSOLAK

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Sustainable Growth ◽

Similar Relationship ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Positive Shock ◽

The Relationship

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey. Dynamic ARDL method was used for the period 1960–2014. According to the findings, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between long-term urbanization and Co2. If urbanization increased by 1%, carbon emissions increased by 0.02%. There is a similar relationship between the shocks that will occur in population growth and Co2 emission in the long term. However, there is a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between the two variables. In the relationship between GDP and Co2, there is a positive relationship in the long term. GDP increase of 1% increases Co2 emissions by 0.11%. There is a similar relationship between long-term GDP shocks and Co2 emissions. According to short-term analysis results, energy consumption increases Co2 emissions by the same rate as GDP. However, the astonishing result of the study emerges here. Empirical results show that a long-term positive shock in energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions and a negative shock increases pollution. According to these results, Turkey has not reached the point of sustainable growth. For this reason, this developing country needs to make regulatory implementations and determine future policies for these impacts affecting air pollution.

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Industrial air pollution and mortality in the Taranto area, Southern Italy: A difference-in-differences approach

Environment International ◽

10.1016/j.envint.2019.105030 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 132 ◽

pp. 105030 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Simona Leogrande ◽

Ester Rita Alessandrini ◽

Massimo Stafoggia ◽

Angela Morabito ◽

Alessandra Nocioni ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Southern Italy ◽

Difference In Differences ◽

Industrial Air Pollution

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Cardiovascular effects of air pollution

Clinical Science ◽

10.1042/cs20070444 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 115 (6) ◽

pp. 175-187 ◽

Cited By ~ 381

Author(s):

Robert D. Brook

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Cardiovascular Diseases ◽

Health Effects ◽

Cardiovascular Health ◽

Cardiovascular Effects ◽

Systemic Circulation ◽

Pollution Source ◽

Global Public Health ◽

Particle Exposure

Air pollution is a heterogeneous mixture of gases, liquids and PM (particulate matter). In the modern urban world, PM is principally derived from fossil fuel combustion with individual constituents varying in size from a few nanometres to 10 μm in diameter. In addition to the ambient concentration, the pollution source and chemical composition may play roles in determining the biological toxicity and subsequent health effects. Nevertheless, studies from across the world have consistently shown that both short- and long-term exposures to PM are associated with a host of cardiovascular diseases, including myocardial ischaemia and infarctions, heart failure, arrhythmias, strokes and increased cardiovascular mortality. Evidence from cellular/toxicological experiments, controlled animal and human exposures and human panel studies have demonstrated several mechanisms by which particle exposure may both trigger acute events as well as prompt the chronic development of cardiovascular diseases. PM inhaled into the pulmonary tree may instigate remote cardiovascular health effects via three general pathways: instigation of systemic inflammation and/or oxidative stress, alterations in autonomic balance, and potentially by direct actions upon the vasculature of particle constituents capable of reaching the systemic circulation. In turn, these responses have been shown to trigger acute arterial vasoconstriction, endothelial dysfunction, arrhythmias and pro-coagulant/thrombotic actions. Finally, long-term exposure has been shown to enhance the chronic genesis of atherosclerosis. Although the risk to one individual at any single time point is small, given the prodigious number of people continuously exposed, PM air pollution imparts a tremendous burden to the global public health, ranking it as the 13th leading cause of morality (approx. 800000 annual deaths).

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Health effects of long-term exposure to air pollution: An overview of major respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and diabetes

Chemical Industry and Chemical Engineering Quarterly ◽

10.2298/ciceq120110112j ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 18 (4-2) ◽

pp. 617-622 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Zorana Jovanovic-Andersen

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Human Health ◽

Health Effects ◽

Convincing Evidence ◽

Urban Setting ◽

Chronic Obstructive ◽

Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽

Limit Values ◽

Public Health Burden

Large number of studies provided convincing evidence for adverse effects of exposure to outdoor air pollution on human health, and served as basis for current USA and EU Air Quality Standards and limit values. Still, new knowledge is emerging, expanding our understanding of vast effects of exposure to air pollution on human health of this ubiquitous exposure affecting millions of people in urban setting. This paper focuses on the studies of health effects of long-term (chronic) exposures to air pollution, and includes major chronic and acute diseases in adults and especially elderly, which will present increasing public health burden, due to improving longevity and projected increasing numbers of elderly. The paper gives overview over the most relevant and latest literature presented by different health outcomes: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes.

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