Microsimulation based quantitative analysis of COVID-19 management strategies

Pandemic management requires reliable and efficient dynamical simulation to predict and control disease spreading. The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is mitigated by several non-pharmaceutical interventions, but it is hard to predict which of these are the most effective for a given population. We developed the computationally effective and scalable, agent-based microsimulation framework PanSim, allowing us to test control measures in multiple infection waves caused by the spread of a new virus variant in a city-sized societal environment using a unified framework fitted to realistic data. We show that vaccination strategies prioritising occupational risk groups minimise the number of infections but allow higher mortality while prioritising vulnerable groups minimises mortality but implies an increased infection rate. We also found that intensive vaccination along with non-pharmaceutical interventions can substantially suppress the spread of the virus, while low levels of vaccination, premature reopening may easily revert the epidemic to an uncontrolled state. Our analysis highlights that while vaccination protects the elderly from COVID-19, a large percentage of children will contract the virus, and we also show the benefits and limitations of various quarantine and testing scenarios. The uniquely detailed spatio-temporal resolution of PanSim allows the design and testing of complex, specifically targeted interventions with a large number of agents under dynamically changing conditions.

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Microsimulation based quantitative analysis of COVID-19 management strategies

10.1101/2021.06.20.21259214 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Istvan Z Reguly ◽

David Csercsik ◽

Janos Juhasz ◽

Kalman Tornai ◽

Zsofia Bujtar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Management Strategies ◽

National Development ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Control Measures ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

Multiple Infection ◽

Unified Framework ◽

Research And Innovation ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background Pandemic management includes a variety of control measures, such as social distancing, testing/quarantining and vaccination applied to a population where the virus is circulating. The COVID 19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is mitigated by several non-pharmaceutical interventions, but it is hard to predict which of these regulations are the most effective for a given population. Methods We developed a computationally effective and scalable, agent-based microsimulation framework. This unified framework was fitted to realistic data to enable us to test control measures (closures, quarantining, testing, vaccination) in multiple infection waves caused by the spread of a new virus variant in a city-sized societal environment. Our framework is capable of simulating nine billion agent steps per minute, allowing us to model interactions in populations with up to 90 million individuals. Findings We show that vaccination strategies prioritising occupational risk groups minimise the number of infections but allow higher mortality while prioritising vulnerable groups minimises mortality but implies increased infection rate. We also found that intensive vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions can substantially suppress the spread of the virus, while low levels of vaccination and premature reopening may easily revert the epidemic to an uncontrolled state. Interpretation Our analysis highlights that while vaccination protects the elderly from COVID-19, a large percentage of children will contract and spread the virus, and we also show the benefits and limitations of various quarantine and testing scenarios. Funding This work was carried out within the framework of the Hungarian National Development, Research, and Innovation (NKFIH) Fund 2020-2.1.1-ED-2020-00003.

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How to deal with the negative psychological impact of COVID-19 for people who pay attention to anxiety and depression

Precision Clinical Medicine ◽

10.1093/pcmedi/pbaa023 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 161-168

Author(s):

Fenfen Ge ◽

Mengtong Wan ◽

Anni Zheng ◽

Jun Zhang

Keyword(s):

Elderly Women ◽

Demographic Data ◽

Psychological Impact ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

Anxiety And Depression ◽

Depression And Anxiety ◽

Coping Behaviors ◽

Major Disaster

Abstract Background The fear of insecurity and uncertainty caused by the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the separation and loss of certain important relationships, and great changes in lifestyle have awakened strong emotional responses, which may cause psychological problems in the general population. However, there is little research on how people who pay attention to anxiety and depression cope with the negative psychological impact during an epidemic or major disaster. This study aimed to identify what behaviors can effectively reduce negative emotions during an epidemic. Methods From 1 February to 8 March 2020, we conducted a web-based survey and collected information on general demographic data. Probable depression, anxiety symptoms, and coping behaviors were assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, and self-made coping behaviors questionnaires. Result Among 17 249 responders, 7923 and 9326 completed assessments of depression and anxiety respectively, and all responders completed the coping behaviors questionnaires. Our survey population showed a high prevalence rate of possible depression disorders (2746 of 7923, 34.66%) and anxiety disorders (5309 of 9326, 56.93%). Compared with other groups, the elderly, women, people of lower education, and people with lower income were more likely to suffer depression and/or anxiety. In terms of marital status, the cohabiting group showed the highest rate of depression and/or anxiety. Among the careers, students and housewives were high-risk groups suffering from depression and/or anxiety. After adjusting for social-demographic factors (e.g. age, sex), depression and anxiety were positively associated with self-injury, doing housework, and having sex or masturbating, and negatively associated with singing, drawing, or writing, dating friends online, singing, attending lectures, and doing yoga. Conclusion Our findings identified some spontaneous coping behaviors that can probably relieve the psychological impact of vulnerable groups during the COVID-19 epidemic.

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The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on People with Intellectual Disabilities: A Literature Review

Journal of Asian Social Science Research ◽

10.15575/jassr.v3i2.42 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 141-154

Author(s):

Ghazi Maulana ◽

Khalilullah Khalilullah ◽

Intan Qanita

Keyword(s):

Intellectual Disabilities ◽

Public Services ◽

People With Disabilities ◽

The Elderly ◽

Control Measures ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

High Risk Population ◽

Access To Education ◽

People With Intellectual Disabilities ◽

The Impact

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected the global population, especially the vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, indigenous people, and people with disabilities. Restriction and limited access to education, health, and public services due to measures taken to cope with the pandemic have made life even more difficult for people with disabilities, particularly those with intellectual ones. People with intellectual disabilities were not counted as a high-risk population, thus being excluded in most public health measurements that are done to encounter the pandemic. Several investigations have been conducted to explore the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on children, women, and the elderly, yet very few discussed how pandemics affected people with intellectual disabilities. This article is a review of existing literature using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) keywords like “COVID-19” and “intellectual disabilities” which was conducted in Pubmed, Web of Science, Mendeley, Google Scholar and ResearchGate to find related studies. Here we reviewed studies on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with intellectual disabilities, including access to education, healthcare, public services, and other related concerns. We also discussed the inclusivity of COVID-19 prevention and control measures taken so far and how it should be designed to accommodate people with intellectual disabilities. This review is expected to provide an insight for the stakeholders and policymakers to employ better and more inclusive approach in the management of pandemic to ensure the wellbeing and rights of people with disabilities in general and people with intellectual ones in particular.

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Eldre personer er sårbare i ekstreme værsituasjoner

Norsk Epidemiologi ◽

10.5324/nje.v14i2.244 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Anette Hylen Ranhoff

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

High Risk ◽

Elderly People ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

Font Size

I fjor sommer ble Europa rammet av en hetebølge og tusenvis av eldre mennesker døde. Sammenhengen mellom helsetilstand og påvirkning av klima er kompleks og medisinske, sosiale og miljømessige faktorer er involvert. Imidlertid er hete- og kulderelaterte sykdommer, skade og død i høy grad mulig å forebygge, og det er behov for å analysere denne situasjonen og andre ekstreme værsituasjoner for å kunne sikre helsen til eldre personer ved liknede hendelser i fremtiden. Artikkelen gir en oversikt over litteratur som omhandler sykelighet og dødelighet som følge av ekstreme værforhold: hete, kulde og situasjoner der transport, elektrisitet og andre leveranser er begrenset, som etter en orkan, enorme snøfall eller liknende. Sammenhenger mellom sykelighet, dødelighet og temperatur i alminnelighet bli også omtalt, med spesielt fokus på de eldre. Eldre som lever alene og er sosialt isolerte, og spesielt de som har funksjonshemning eller kognitiv svikt har høyest risiko for sykdom, skade og død i ekstreme værsituasjoner. Dette kan trolig i stor grad forebygges. Det anbefales at alle kommuner har kriseplaner for naturkatastrofer og ekstreme værsituasjoner som spesielt inneholder tiltak rettet mot sårbare eldre. Planene bør inneholde generell alarmering og informasjon samt systemer for oppsøkende virksomhet overfor risikogrupper. The 2003 heat wave in Europe was responsible for the deaths of thousands of elderly people. Heat- and cold-related illnesses, injuries and deaths are supposed to be largely preventable, and it is a need for analysing this situation and other situations with extreme weather conditions where elderly people are believed to be particularly vulnerableThis article is a review of the literature concerning morbidity and mortality in extreme weather conditions like heat, cold and situations where transportation, electricity, and other supplies are limited as a consequence of extreme weather such as after a hurricane or an enormous snowfall. Associations between mortality, morbidity and temperature in general are also discussed with focus on the elderly population. after a hurricane or an enormous snowfall. The frailest elderly are at the highest risk. In situati The elderly are at high risk for illnesses, injuries and death in extreme weather conditions. There are numerous reports from heat waves, but also cold-related problems are well documented. Other risk factors are disability, cognitive impairment, chronic disease, the use of special drugs and social isolation. Many risk factors are common for heat-, and cold-related problems, and also for other situations like ons with extreme weather conditions, we recommend local and central authorities to have emergency plans with special adaptations to the needs of elderly people and other vulnerable groups. These plans should include general warning and information and systems for preventive visits to high-risk groups..

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Adaptive combination of interventions required to reach population immunity due to stochastic community dynamics and limited vaccination

10.21203/rs.3.rs-716282/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Björn Goldenbogen ◽

Stephan Adler ◽

Oliver Bodeit ◽

Judith Wodke ◽

Ximena Escalera-Fanjul ◽

...

Keyword(s):

World Wide ◽

Community Dynamics ◽

Vaccination Strategy ◽

Adaptive Strategies ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Human Interaction ◽

Adaptive Combination ◽

Population Immunity ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Reaching population immunity against COVID-19 is proving difficult even in countries with high vaccination levels. We demonstrate that this in part is due to heterogeneity and stochasticity resulting from community-specific human-human interaction and infection networks. We address this challenge by community-specific simulation of adaptive strategies. Analyzing the predicted effect of vaccination into an ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, we find that adaptive combinations of targeted vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are required to reach population immunity. Importantly, the threshold for population immunity is not a unique number but strategy and community dependent. Furthermore, the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks is highly community-specific: in some communities vaccinating highly interactive people diminishes the risk for an infection wave, while vaccinating the elderly reduces fatalities when vaccinations are low due to supply or hesitancy. Similarly, while risk groups should be vaccinated first to minimize fatalities, optimality branching is observed with increasing population immunity. Bimodality emerges as the infection network gains complexity over time, which entails that NPIs generally need to be longer and stricter. Thus, we analyze and quantify the requirement for NPIs dependent on the chosen vaccination strategy. Our simulation platform can process and analyze dynamic COVID-19 epidemiological situations in diverse communities world-wide to predict pathways to population immunity even with limited vaccination.

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Economic impacts of fall armyworm and its management strategies: evidence from southern Ethiopia

European Review of Agricultural Economics ◽

10.1093/erae/jbz048 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 47 (4) ◽

pp. 1473-1501 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Menale Kassie ◽

Tesfamicheal Wossen ◽

Hugo De Groote ◽

Tadele Tefera ◽

Subramanian Sevgan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Control Strategies ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Fall Armyworm ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Institutional Capacity ◽

Control Measures ◽

Southern Ethiopia ◽

Economic Implications ◽

Targeted Interventions ◽

Maize Yields

Abstract This paper explores the economic implications of fall armyworm (FAW) and its management strategies by exploiting exogenous variation in FAW exposure amongst households in southern Ethiopia. We find that FAW exposure affects maize yield and sales negatively, but not consumption. Furthermore, we find evidence of crowding-in and intensification of insecticide use in response to FAW exposure. We also find suggestive evidence that existing extension service arrangements lack the capacity to deal with emerging threats such as FAW. Results imply that targeted interventions aimed at improving the effectiveness of control measures and institutional capacity would be key to reduce the adverse effects of FAW. Highlights The economic impact of fall armyworm (FAW) in southern Ethiopia assessed Fall armyworm significantly reduces maize yields and maize sales A positive correlation observed between FAW exposure and intensity of insecticide use Existing individual FAW control strategies do not significantly abate losses from FAW Improving institutional capacity is essential to control FAW

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The burden of seasonal influenza in Italy: a systematic review of influenza-related complications, hospitalizations, and mortality

10.22541/au.163283460.08141129/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Irene Giacchetta ◽

Chiara Primieri ◽

Riccardo Cavalieri ◽

Alexander Domnich ◽

Chiara de Waure

Keyword(s):

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Control Measures ◽

Italian Population ◽

Infected People ◽

Public Health Decision ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Health Decision ◽

Prevention And Control Measures

Background: reliable country-specific data on influenza burden play a crucial role in informing prevention and control measures. Our purpose was to provide a comprehensive summary of the available evidence on the burden of seasonal influenza in Italy. Methods: we performed a sys-tematic literature review of articles published until 31 July 2020. PubMed, Embase and Web of Science were searched using terms related to burden, influenza, and Italian population. We in-cluded studies investigating seasonal influenza-related complications, hospitalizations and/or mortality. Results: sixteen studies were included: eight (50%) analyzed influenza-related compli-cations, eight (50%) hospitalizations, while seven (43.8%) influenza-related deaths. Only three studies (19.7%) concerned pediatric age. The synthesis of results showed that patients with chron-ic conditions have an increased risk for complications up to almost three times as compared to healthy people. Hospitalizations due to influenza can occur in as much as 5% of infected people depending on the study setting. Excess deaths rates were over six-fold higher in the elderly as compared to the rest of population. Conclusions: although there are still gaps in existing data, there is evidence of the significant burden that influenza places each year especially on high-risk groups. These data should be used to inform public health decision-making.

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The impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

10.1101/2020.04.18.20069955 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Maria Vittoria Barbarossa ◽

Jan Fuhrmann ◽

Jan H. Meinke ◽

Stefan Krieg ◽

Hridya Vinod Varma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Age Groups ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Control Measures ◽

The Novel ◽

Slowing Down ◽

Initial Work ◽

Current Outbreak ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020 [37]. In view of most recent information on testing activity [32], we present here an update of our initial work [4]. In this work, mathematical models have been developed to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended here to account for undetected infections, as well as for stages of infections and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5, data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases and reduced contact to risk groups.

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Suicide in Nógrád County, Hungary, 1970-1994

Crisis ◽

10.1027//0227-5910.20.2.64 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 64-70 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Tamás Zonda

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Psychiatric Disorders ◽

Suicide Rate ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Female Ratio ◽

Suicide Notes ◽

Suicidal Intention ◽

Male Female Ratio

The author examined completed suicides occurring over a period of 25 years in a county of Hungary with a traditionally low (relatively speaking) suicide rate of 25.8. The rates are clearly higher in villages than in the towns. The male/female ratio was close to 4:1, among elderly though only 1.5:1. The high risk groups are the elderly, divorced, and widowed. Violent methods are chosen in 66.4% of the cases. The rates are particularly high in the period April-July. Prior communication of suicidal intention was revealed in 16.3% of all cases. Previous attempts had been undertaken by 17%, which in turn means that 83% of suicides were first attempts. In our material 10% the victims left suicide notes. Psychiatric disorders were present in 60.1% of the cases, and severe, multiple somatic illnesses (including malignomas) were present in 8.8%. The majority of the data resemble those found in the literature.

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A cost-effective preventative approach to potentially save lives in the coronavirus pandemic, jointly using Vitamin D, Curcumin, and Vitamin C. Authors Bakare T A and Soar J S

10.31232/osf.io/jgf6e ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jagjit S Soar

Keyword(s):

Vitamin D ◽

Vitamin C ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Pharmaceutical Drugs ◽

Over The Counter ◽

Literature Searches ◽

Pharmaceutical Agents ◽

And Control

he current COVID-19 pandemic now believed to be based on the mutation of the SARS-CoV virus (first reported in 2002) to SARS-CoV-2 emerging in 2019, is naturally causing extreme worry and concern around the world with sometimes mixed and incoherent messages on how to deal with it. There is a plethora of information from previous epidemics caused by other coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS (2002) and Middle East respiratory syndrome MERS (2012) from which we can extrapolate guidance on how to deal with the current pandemic. In the current absence of specific pharmaceutical agents, we propose assessing the extended tools that we already possess in our biological armoury to combat, prevent and control the spread of this virus. Using a set of precise criteria to locate such possible contenders, we conducted literature searches to find compounds that met these criteria. We have now reduced this to a shortlist of three agents that may be the best candidates. We propose vitamin C, vitamin D and Curcumin fit our criteria well. These compounds are widely available to the general public. They are available online and over-the-counter as supplements. Otherwise healthy individuals are safely able to self-administer these agents as a prophylactic to protect themselves and to enhance their immune response. This would be especially desirable for the elderly and at risk groups. These agents can also be used as adjunct therapy, particularly for those who may have early symptoms. This preventative therapy could be implemented whilst awaiting specific pharmaceutical drugs to emerge as a treatment for COVID-19. Our suggested compounds are a highly cost-effective way to potentially reduce the mortality that is regretfully mounting as a result of COVID-19 infection. The biological mode of action and the dosing of these compounds are summarised.

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