scholarly journals Could the new coronavirus have infected humans prior November 2019?

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0248255
Author(s):  
Aleš Tichopád ◽  
Ladislav Pecen ◽  
Vratislav Sedlák
Keyword(s):  
Medical Journal ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Early Data ◽  
High Confidence ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
The World ◽  
Early Portion

The pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is believed to originate in China from where it spread to other parts of the world. The first cluster of diseased individuals was reported in China as early as in December 2019. It has also been well established that the virus stroke Italy later in January or in February 2020, hence distinctly after the outbreak in China. The work by Apolone et al. published in the Italian Medical Journal in November 2020 and retracted upon expression of concern on 22 March 2021, however propose that the virus could have stroke people already in September 2019, possibly following even earlier outbreak in China. By fitting an early part of the epidemic curve with the exponential and extrapolating it backwards, we could estimate the day-zero of the epidemic and calculated its confidence intervals in Italy and China. We also calculated how probable it is that Italy encountered the virus prior 1 January 2020. We determined an early portion of the epidemic curve representing unhindered exponential growth which fit the exponential model with high determination >0.97 in both countries. We conservatively suggest that the day-zero in China and Italy was 8 December 2019 (95% CI: 3 Dec., 20 Dec.) and 22 January 2020 (95% CI: 16 Jan., 29 Jan.), respectively. Given the uncertainty of the very early data in China and adjusting hence our model to fit the exponentially behaved data only, we can even admit that the pandemic originated through November 2019 (95% CI: 31 Oct., 22 Dec.). With high confidence (p <0.01) China encountered the virus prior Italy. We generally view any pre-pandemic presence of the virus in humans before November 2019 as very unlikely. The later established dynamics of the epidemics data suggests that the country of the origin was China.

scholarly journals Could Italy host the new coronavirus before China?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleš Tichopád ◽  
Ladislav Pecen
Keyword(s):  
Medical Journal ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
High Confidence ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
The World ◽  
Early Portion

AbstractThe pandemic of the COVID-19 disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been believed to originate in China and spread later to other parts of the world. It is well acknowledged that the first diseased individuals appeared in China as early as in December 2019, and possibly even earlier in November. It has also been well established that the virus stroke Italy later in January or in February 2020, distinctly after the outbreak in China. Paper by Apolone et al. published in a local Italian medical journal in November 2020 however exposed this chronology to doubt.By fitting early part of the epidemic curve with the exponential model and extrapolating it backwards in time, we could estimate the day-zero of the epidemic and calculated its confidence intervals in Italy and China. We also calculated how probable it is that Italy encountered the virus prior 1 January 2020.We determined an early portion of the epidemic curve representing unhindered exponential growth which fit the exponential model with high determination >0.97 in both countries. We suggest that the day-zero in China and Italy was 8 December (95% CI: 3 Dec., 20 Dec.) and 22 January (95% CI: 16 Jan., 29 Jan.), respectively. We could with high confidence reject that Italy encountered the virus earlier than China (p <0.01).Based on our analysis we oppose the findings published by Apolone at al. and view the proposed pre-pandemic presence of the virus in Italy as very unlikely.

Causality Then and Now

1993 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-177
Author(s):  
Karen Harding
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Theory ◽  
Common Sense ◽  
Mechanical Model ◽  
Physical World ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
The World ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Universe ◽  
The Way

Ate appearances deceiving? Do objects behave the way they do becauseGod wills it? Ate objects impetmanent and do they only exist becausethey ate continuously created by God? According to a1 Ghazlli, theanswers to all of these questions ate yes. Objects that appear to bepermanent are not. Those relationships commonly tefemed to as causalare a result of God’s habits rather than because one event inevitably leadsto another. God creates everything in the universe continuously; if Heceased to create it, it would no longer exist.These ideas seem oddly naive and unscientific to people living in thetwentieth century. They seem at odds with the common conception of thephysical world. Common sense says that the universe is made of tealobjects that persist in time. Furthermore, the behavior of these objects isreasonable, logical, and predictable. The belief that the univetse is understandablevia logic and reason harkens back to Newton’s mechanical viewof the universe and has provided one of the basic underpinnings ofscience for centuries. Although most people believe that the world is accutatelydescribed by this sort of mechanical model, the appropriatenessof such a model has been called into question by recent scientificadvances, and in particular, by quantum theory. This theory implies thatthe physical world is actually very different from what a mechanicalmodel would predit.Quantum theory seeks to explain the nature of physical entities andthe way that they interact. It atose in the early part of the twentieth centuryin response to new scientific data that could not be incorporated successfullyinto the ptevailing mechanical view of the universe. Due largely ...

scholarly journals Statistical reporting in the "Clujul-Medical" journal

2015 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 483-488
Author(s):  
Daniel-Corneliu Leucuța ◽  
Tudor Drugan ◽  
Andrei Achimaș
Keyword(s):  
Medical Journal ◽  
Medical Research ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Statistical Test ◽  
Statistical Analyses ◽  
Research Needs

Background and aim. Medical research needs statistical analyses to understand the reality of variable phenomena. There are numerous studies showing poor statistical reporting in many journals with different rankings, in different countries. Our aim was to assess the reporting of statistical analyses in original papers published in Clujul Medical journal in the year 2014.Methods. All original articles published in Clujul Medical in the year 2014 were assessed using mainly Statistical Analyses and Methods in the Published Literature guidelines.Results. The most important issues found in reporting statistical analyses were reduced reporting of:  assumptions checking, difference between groups or measures of associations, confidence intervals for the primary outcomes, and errors in the statistical test choice or the descriptive statistic choice for several analyses. These results are similar with other studies assessing different journals worldwide.Conclusion. Statistical reporting in Clujul Medical, like in other journals, have to be improved. 

Culture in Virtual Communities

2008 ◽  
pp. 1009-1013
Author(s):  
Li Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Sharing ◽  
Sense Of Community ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Virtual Communities ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Technological Infrastructure ◽  
Culture Model ◽  
The World ◽  
New Challenges

With exponential growth of virtual communities, more and more studies are carried out to examine how they change people’s life (Bieber et al., 2002; Blanchard & Markus, 2004; Bruckman, 2002; Burnett, 2002; Burnett, Dickey, Kazmer, & Chudoba, 2003). Among those studies, many researchers focus on the architectures and infrastructures to enable knowledge sharing, such as Bieber et al. (2002), Bruckman (2002) and Marshall (2000). The human behavioral side of virtual communities, however, still remains mysterious. While virtual communities are inconceivable without the technological infrastructure and protocols that support them, they are equally inconceivable without human users. It is the users or the sense of community rather than the technologies that give virtual communities their significance (Burnett, 2002). The interactions of users in electronically mediated environments bring up new challenges and questions for researchers. For example, how do we understand culture in virtual communities? What kind of cultural issues are involved in virtual communities? Interacting with people from all over the world, how does one’s national and ethnic culture background influence his or her activities in the virtual communities (Burnett et al., 2003)? The list of questions can go on. This article proposes one possible way to answer the first question of how to understand culture in virtual communities. We argue that the culture model by Schein (1992) can be applied to obtain an understanding of culture in virtual communities. In this article, we first review relevant research on cultural issues in virtual communities. Then we propose that Schein’s model can be applied to understand culture in virtual communities. Next, we analyze the trends for research on the topic and discuss our conclusion.

The State and the Ongoing Struggle Over Coca in Bolivia: Legitimacy, Hegemony, and the Exercise of Power

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Sanabria
Keyword(s):  
Social Space ◽  
Structural Instability ◽  
Current Drive ◽  
The World ◽  
The One ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Year 2000

Dangerous Harvest, the title of this volume, is an especially appropriate metaphor with which to begin to discuss and understand the ongoing, protracted, and increasingly violent struggle over coca in Bolivia—the third most-important coca leaf–producing country in the world (BINM 1998: 65). Such a metaphor—which suggests the reaping of a product that is potentially precarious, menacing, ominous, and even deadly—points to the fact not only that coca is an inherently conflict-ridden arena or social space but also that the most enduring and significant upshot of the current drive against coca, what is being “harvested” by recent counternarcotics efforts, is the potential for long-term structural instability and conflict in Bolivian society. In this chapter I pay special attention to this struggle over coca in Bolivia, particularly from the late 1980s to the early part of 2000. I will argue that the contest over coca in Bolivia reflects and embodies numerous and inherently conflictive claims and counterclaims (social, political, economic, and ideological) by different segments of Bolivian society, many of which entail fundamental questions about legitimacy, hegemony, and challenges to the exercise of power by elites and state elites. That is, to view the coca conflict as essentially one between “evil” or “criminal” coca growers and traffickers, on the one hand, and enlightened, law-abiding authorities and citizens, on the other—precisely the criminal justice perspective that ideologically informs, guides, and justifies current anticoca policy by U.S. and U.S.-funded counternarcotics agencies and programs—is not only not enlightening but also fundamentally counterproductive in that it fails to provide the necessary insights with which to grapple with and arrive at a just solution to some of the most important roots of the current coca strife in Bolivia. I will also try to understand and explain the seemingly successful coca eradication efforts in the late 1990s and first half of the year 2000, as well as how and why resistance to these efforts by coca cultivators in the Chapare appear to have been particularly ineffective in recent years.

Quantum mechanics, interpretation of

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allen Stairs
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Mechanics ◽  
Microscopic Level ◽  
Quantum States ◽  
Quantum Mechanical ◽  
Quantum Superposition ◽  
Ordinary Objects ◽  
Making Sense ◽  
Interpretations Of Quantum Mechanics ◽  
The World

Quantum mechanics developed in the early part of the twentieth century in response to the discovery that energy is quantized, that is, comes in discrete units. At the microscopic level this leads to odd phenomena: light displays particle-like characteristics and particles such as electrons produce wave-like interference patterns. At the level of ordinary objects such effects are usually not evident, but this generalization is subject to striking exceptions and puzzling ambiguities. The fundamental quantum mechanical puzzle is ’superposition of states’. Quantum states can be added together in a manner that recalls the superposition of waves, but the effects of quantum superposition show up only probabilistically in the statistics of many measurements. The details suggest that the world is indefinite in odd ways; for example, that things may not always have well-defined positions or momenta or energies. However, if we accept this conclusion, we have difficulty making sense of such straightforward facts as that measurements have definite results. Interpretations of quantum mechanics are, in one way or another, attempts to understand the superposition of quantum states. The range of interpretations stretches from the metaphysically daring to the seemingly innocuous. But, so far, no single interpretation has commanded anything like universal agreement.

Balanchine, George (1904–1983)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy Reynolds
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
York City ◽  
Violin Concerto ◽  
Classical Dance ◽  
George Balanchine ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Classical Ballet

George Balanchine (Georgii Melitonovich Balanchivadze), arguably the greatest ballet choreographer of the twentieth century, was at once both modernist and traditionalist. Unlike many radical innovators, in charting new ground he did not reject the past. Virtually all of his major works make reference, even if obliquely, to the classical ballet technique in which he was trained. Although born in Russia and active in Europe in the early part of his career, it was in America that he made his greatest impact, directing the New York City Ballet, which he co-founded with Lincoln Kirstein, from its inception in 1948 until his death in 1983. During this time, the company grew from modest beginnings to become one of the most important ballet troupes in the world. Balanchine is credited with creating a particularly American style of classical dance, one that is characterized by speed, precision, energy, daring, and a rough grace more associated with athletes than with sylphs. His more than 400 dance works include Apollo (1928), Serenade (1934), Concerto Barocco (1941), Le Palais de cristal (later renamed Symphony in C) (1948), Orpheus (1948), The Nutcracker (1954), Agon (1957), Symphony in Three Movements (1972), Stravinsky Violin Concerto (1972), Vienna Waltzes (1977), Ballo della Regina (1978), and Mozartiana (1981).

Culture in Virtual Communities

2011 ◽  
pp. 102-104
Author(s):  
Li Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Sharing ◽  
Sense Of Community ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Virtual Communities ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Technological Infrastructure ◽  
Culture Model ◽  
The World ◽  
New Challenges

With exponential growth of virtual communities, more and more studies are carried out to examine how they change people’s life (Bieber et al., 2002; Blanchard & Markus, 2004; Bruckman, 2002; Burnett, 2002; Burnett, Dickey, Kazmer, & Chudoba, 2003). Among those studies, many researchers focus on the architectures and infrastructures to enable knowledge sharing, such as Bieber et al. (2002), Bruckman (2002) and Marshall (2000). The human behavioral side of virtual communities, however, still remains mysterious. While virtual communities are inconceivable without the technological infrastructure and protocols that support them, they are equally inconceivable without human users. It is the users or the sense of community rather than the technologies that give virtual communities their significance (Burnett, 2002). The interactions of users in electronically mediated environments bring up new challenges and questions for researchers. For example, how do we understand culture in virtual communities? What kind of cultural issues are involved in virtual communities? Interacting with people from all over the world, how does one’s national and ethnic culture background influence his or her activities in the virtual communities (Burnett et al., 2003)? The list of questions can go on. This article proposes one possible way to answer the first question of how to understand culture in virtual communities. We argue that the culture model by Schein (1992) can be applied to obtain an understanding of culture in virtual communities. In this article, we first review relevant research on cultural issues in virtual communities. Then we propose that Schein’s model can be applied to understand culture in virtual communities. Next, we analyze the trends for research on the topic and discuss our conclusion.

Quantum Internet and E-Governance

2020 ◽  
pp. 109-132
Author(s):  
Manan Dhaneshbhai Thakkar ◽  
Rakesh D. Vanzara
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Quantum Cryptography ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Quantum Computer ◽  
Exchange Mechanism ◽  
Social Media Site ◽  
The World ◽  
Governance Challenges ◽  
Quantum Internet

We are leaving in the era where almost everyone in the world uses internet for the communication over social media site, shopping, E-commerce, online transaction and many more. The exponential growth in usage of internet resulted in security related challenges. Since last several years, traditional cryptography algorithms are found working well. Evolution of quantum computer and its high computing capability can break existing cryptography algorithms. To handle the security constraints, this chapter provides details on evolution of quantum cryptography, components involved to design network architecture for quantum internet, quantum key exchange mechanism and functionality wise stages for quantum internet. This chapter also includes challenges involved in evolution of quantum internet. Further, chapter also contains the details on e-governance, challenges in e-governance and solution using quantum cryptography.

The early history and development of functional endoscopic sinus surgery

2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-13
Author(s):  
K J Kane
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Nasal Cavity ◽  
Endoscopic Sinus Surgery ◽  
Functional Endoscopic Sinus Surgery ◽  
Early History ◽  
Sinus Surgery ◽  
Diagnosis And Management ◽  
The World ◽  
English Speaking

AbstractBackgroundThe concept of endoscopic diagnosis and procedures on the nasal cavity had been investigated for several decades in Europe in the early part of the twentieth century. It was Prof Walter Messerklinger and his assistant, Heinz Stammberger, with US colleague, David Kennedy, who brought the science and technique of functional endoscopic sinus surgery to the wider world.MethodsThe author, an English-speaking surgeon, was present at this movement from the commencement of its propagation, and has recorded the remarkable ascendency of this technique throughout the world.ConclusionThe technique revolutionised the diagnosis and management of intranasal, sinus and intracranial conditions.

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