Employment impacts of the San Francisco sugar-sweetened beverage tax 2 years after implementation

Introduction Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been implemented worldwide to raise revenue and reduce consumption of SSBs, which is associated with health harms. Empirical evaluations have found that these taxes are successful at reducing demand for SSBs; however, SSB taxes face opposition, in part because of claims that they will lead to substantial job losses. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the San Francisco SSB tax, implemented on January 1st, 2018, on employment. Methods Monthly employment counts were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from January 2013 (5-years pre-tax) through December 2019 (2-years post-tax) for the overall economy, private sector, supermarkets and other grocery stores, convenience stores, limited-service restaurants, and beverage manufacturing. A synthetic control analysis was conducted for each employment outcome. The synthetic controls (i.e., estimated counterfactuals) were generated from a pool of urban control counties using pre-tax labor market-related characteristics. Results The synthetic controls had similar labor market-related characteristics and employment outcomes to those in San Francisco in the pre-tax period. Up to 2 years post-tax, differences in employment between San Francisco and the synthetic controls were small and not “statistically significant” based on placebo tests for all employment outcomes. Conclusions Up to two years post-tax, we do not find evidence that the San Francisco SSB tax negatively impacted net employment, employment in the private sector, or employment in specific SSB-related industries.

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Linking a sugar-sweetened beverage tax with fruit and vegetable subsidies: A simulation analysis of the impact on the poor

American Journal of Clinical Nutrition ◽

10.1093/ajcn/nqab330 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Pourya Valizadeh ◽

Barry M Popkin ◽

Shu Wen Ng

Keyword(s):

Low Income ◽

Simulation Analysis ◽

Fruit And Vegetable ◽

Sugar Sweetened Beverage ◽

Subsidy Rate ◽

Sweetened Beverage ◽

Financial Gain ◽

Households With Children ◽

The Impact ◽

Low Income Households

Abstract Background US individuals, particularly from low-income subpopulations, have very poor diet quality. Policies encouraging shifts from consuming unhealthy food towards healthy food consumption are needed. Objectives We simulate the differential impacts of a national sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and its combination with fruit and vegetable (FV) subsidies targeted to low-income households, on SSB and FV purchases of lower and higher SSB purchasers. Design We considered a one-cent-per-ounce SSB tax and two FV subsidy rates of 30% and 50% and used longitudinal grocery purchase data for 79,044 urban/semiurban US households from 2010-2014 Nielsen Homescan. We used demand elasticities for lower and higher SSB purchasers, estimated via longitudinal quantile regression, to simulate policies’ differential effects. Results Higher-SSB purchasing households made larger reductions (per adult equivalent) in SSB purchases than lower SSB purchasers due to the tax (e.g., 4.4 oz/day at SSB purchase percentile 90 vs. 0.5 oz/day at percentile 25; p < 0.05). Our analyses by household income indicated low-income households would make larger reductions than higher-income households at all SSB purchase levels. Targeted FV subsidies induced similar, but nutritionally insignificant, increases in FV purchases of low-income households regardless of their SSB purchase levels. Subsidies, however, were effective in mitigating the tax burdens. All low-income households experienced a net financial gain when the tax was combined with a 50% FV subsidy, but net gains were smaller among higher SSB purchasers. Further, low-income households with children gained smaller net financial benefits than households without children and incurred net financial losses under a 30% subsidy rate. Conclusions SSB taxes can effectively reduce SSB consumption. FV subsidies would increase FV purchases, but nutritionally meaningful increases are limited due to low purchase levels pre-policy. Expanding taxes beyond SSBs, larger FV subsidies, or subsidies beyond FVs, particularly for low-income households with children, may be more effective.

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Bikes or Bust? Analyzing the Impact of Bicycle Infrastructure on Business Performance in San Francisco

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.1177/0361198119850465 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2673 (12) ◽

pp. 277-289

Author(s):

Raleigh McCoy ◽

Joseph A. Poirier ◽

Karen Chapple

Keyword(s):

San Francisco ◽

Business Performance ◽

The United States ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

Grocery Stores ◽

Least Squares Regression ◽

Mode Shift ◽

Bicycle Infrastructure ◽

The Impact ◽

Over Time

Transportation agencies at the local, state, and federal levels in the United States (U.S.) have shown a growing interest in expanding bicycle infrastructure, given its link to mode shift and safety goals. These projects, however, are far from universally accepted. Business owners have been particularly vocal opponents, claiming that bicycle infrastructure will diminish sales or fundamentally change the character of their neighborhoods. Using the case of San Francisco, this research explores the relationship between bicycle infrastructure and business performance in two ways: change in sales over time, and a comparison of sales for new and existing businesses. An ordinary least squares regression is used to model the change in sales over time, isolating the effect of location on bicycle infrastructure while controlling for characteristics of the business, corridor, and surrounding neighborhood. Through a series of t-tests, average sales for businesses that pre-date bicycle infrastructure and for those that opened after the installation of such projects are compared. Ultimately, the research suggests that location on bicycle infrastructure and changes in on-street parking supply generally did not have a significant effect on the change in sales, with a few exceptions. Businesses that sell goods for the home or auto-related goods and services saw a significant decline in sales when located on corridors with bike lanes. New and existing businesses generally had similar sales, though not across the board. New restaurants and grocery stores had significantly higher sales than their existing counterparts, suggesting bicycle infrastructure may attract more upmarket businesses in those industries.

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Educational Attainment and Nonwage Labor Market Returns in the United States

AERA Open ◽

10.1177/2332858419874056 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 233285841987405

Author(s):

Lauren Schudde ◽

Kaitlin Bernell

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Labor Market ◽

Educational Attainment ◽

The United States ◽

Employment Outcomes ◽

Retirement Plans ◽

Market Returns ◽

Labor Market Returns ◽

Nationally Representative ◽

The Impact

Although decades of research highlight the impact of schooling on earnings, less evidence exists regarding other employment outcomes. Nonwage labor market returns to education are important in the United States, where health insurance and retirement income are typically tied to employment. Using longitudinal, nationally representative data, we examine the role of educational attainment in predicting nonwage employment outcomes and control for a host of individual and institutional measures. Even after controlling for individual and institutional characteristics, results indicate that educational attainment predicts employment and markers of “good” jobs, like access to employer-provided health and dental insurances, retirement plans, and paid leave. Furthermore, by delineating between various subbaccalaureate levels of college attainment, our results illustrate the complex variation in returns to college for those who did not complete a 4-year degree.

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Higher Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Retail Prices After Excise Taxes in Oakland and San Francisco

American Journal of Public Health ◽

10.2105/ajph.2020.305602 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 110 (7) ◽

pp. 1017-1023 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jennifer Falbe ◽

Matthew M. Lee ◽

Scott Kaplan ◽

Nadia A. Rojas ◽

Alberto M. Ortega Hinojosa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

San Francisco ◽

Fixed Effects ◽

Weighted Average ◽

High Dimensional ◽

Difference In Differences ◽

Sugar Sweetened Beverage ◽

Excise Taxes ◽

Sweetened Beverage ◽

Diet Soda ◽

Retail Prices

Objectives. To examine how much sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) excise taxes increased SSB retail prices in Oakland and San Francisco, California. Methods. We collected pretax (April–May 2017) and posttax (April–May 2018) retail prices of SSBs and non-SSBs from 155 stores in Oakland, San Francisco, and comparison cities. We analyzed data using difference-in-differences high-dimensional fixed-effects regressions, weighted by regional beverage sales. Results. Across all beverage sizes, the weighted average price of SSBs increased by 0.92 cents per ounce (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.28, 1.56) in Oakland and 1.00 cents per ounce (95% CI = 0.35, 1.65) in San Francisco, compared with prices in untaxed cities. The tax did not significantly alter prices of water, 100% juice, or milk of any size examined. Diet soda only, among non-SSBs, exhibited a higher price increase for some sizes in taxed cities. Conclusions. Within 4 to 10 months of implementation, Oakland’s and San Francisco’s SSB excise taxes significantly increased SSB retail prices by approximately the amount of the taxes, a key mechanism for reducing consumption.

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Simulating the Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Warning Labels in Three Cities

American Journal of Preventive Medicine ◽

10.1016/j.amepre.2017.11.003 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 54 (2) ◽

pp. 197-204 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Bruce Y. Lee ◽

Marie C. Ferguson ◽

Daniel L. Hertenstein ◽

Atif Adam ◽

Eli Zenkov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Warning Labels ◽

Sugar Sweetened Beverage ◽

Sweetened Beverage ◽

The Impact

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Corporations’ use and misuse of evidence to influence health policy: a case study of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation

Globalization and Health ◽

10.1186/s12992-019-0495-5 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Gary Jonas Fooks ◽

Simon Williams ◽

Graham Box ◽

Gary Sacks

Keyword(s):

South African ◽

Evidence Base ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Economic Modelling ◽

Complex Interplay ◽

Sugar Sweetened Beverage ◽

Sweetened Beverage ◽

Sweetened Beverages ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) are a major source of sugar in the diet. Although trends in consumption vary across regions, in many countries, particularly LMICs, their consumption continues to increase. In response, a growing number of governments have introduced a tax on SSBs. SSB manufacturers have opposed such taxes, disputing the role that SSBs play in diet-related diseases and the effectiveness of SSB taxation, and alleging major economic impacts. Given the importance of evidence to effective regulation of products harmful to human health, we scrutinised industry submissions to the South African government’s consultation on a proposed SSB tax and examined their use of evidence. Results Corporate submissions were underpinned by several strategies involving the misrepresentation of evidence. First, references were used in a misleading way, providing false support for key claims. Second, raw data, which represented a pliable, alternative evidence base to peer reviewed studies, was misused to dispute both the premise of targeting sugar for special attention and the impact of SSB taxes on SSB consumption. Third, purposively selected evidence was used in conjunction with other techniques, such as selective quoting from studies and omitting important qualifying information, to promote an alternative evidential narrative to that supported by the weight of peer-reviewed research. Fourth, a range of mutually enforcing techniques that inflated the effects of SSB taxation on jobs, public revenue generation, and gross domestic product, was used to exaggerate the economic impact of the tax. This “hyperbolic accounting” included rounding up figures in original sources, double counting, and skipping steps in economic modelling. Conclusions Our research raises fundamental questions concerning the bona fides of industry information in the context of government efforts to combat diet-related diseases. The beverage industry’s claims against SSB taxation rest on a complex interplay of techniques, that appear to be grounded in evidence, but which do not observe widely accepted approaches to the use of either scientific or economic evidence. These techniques are similar, but not identical, to those used by tobacco companies and highlight the problems of introducing evidence-based policies aimed at managing the market environment for unhealthful commodities.

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The Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Purchases: Evidence from Four City-Level Taxes in the U.S.

10.3386/w26393 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

John Cawley ◽

David Frisvold ◽

David Jones

Keyword(s):

Sugar Sweetened Beverage ◽

Sweetened Beverage ◽

The Impact ◽

The U.S

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The impact of health warnings for sugar-sweetened beverages on consumer perceptions of advertising

Public Health Nutrition ◽

10.1017/s1368980021001257 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

David Hammond ◽

Rachel B Acton ◽

Samantha Goodman

Keyword(s):

Weight Gain ◽

Health Effects ◽

San Francisco ◽

Binary Logistic Regression ◽

Consumer Perceptions ◽

False Beliefs ◽

Health Warnings ◽

Sugar Sweetened Beverage ◽

Logistic Regression Models ◽

The Impact

Abstract Objective: In February 2020, San Francisco proposed mandatory health warnings for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) advertisements. Industry legal challenges stated that the warning would detract from advertisers’ ability to convey their intended message and mislead consumers into believing that SSB cause weight gain regardless of consumption amount, lifestyle or intake of other energy-dense foods. Design: Online between-group experiments tested the impact of SSB warnings on advertising outcomes and consumer perceptions. Respondents were randomised to view six SSB print advertisements with or without a health warning (‘Warning’ and ‘No Warning’ condition, respectively). Linear and binary logistic regression models tested differences between groups, including ad recall, brand perceptions and beliefs about SSB health effects. Setting: Panelists from the US Nielsen Global Panel. Participants: Sixteen to 65-year-old respondents (n 1064). Results: Overall, 69·2 % of participants in the ‘Warning’ condition recalled seeing warnings on SSB ads. Compared with the ‘No Warning’ condition, participants in the ‘Warning’ condition who reported noticing the warnings were equally likely to recall the brands featured in the SSB ads and to recall specific attributes of the final ad they viewed. Similarly, no differences were observed between groups in perceptions of SSB, such as perceived taste, or in the prevalence of false beliefs regarding the health effects of SSB and intake of other sugary foods on weight gain. Conclusions: Overall, there was no evidence that SSB health warnings detracted from attention to promotional elements in advertisements or that the warnings misled consumers into false beliefs about SSB as the exclusive cause of weight gain.

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PANDEMI COVID 19 DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP PASAR TENAGA KERJA DI INDONESIA

Prosiding Working Papers Series In Management ◽

10.25170/wpm.v12i2.36-46 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 36-46

Author(s):

Pandu Adi Cakranegara

Keyword(s):

Labor Market ◽

Private Sector ◽

Economic Crisis ◽

World Bank ◽

Quantitative Easing ◽

Goods And Services ◽

International Labor ◽

Ministry Of Finance ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

Pandemic Covid 19 is a crisis that begins with health problems. But the crisis is heading towards an economic crisis. This study examines the impact of the economic crisis using various data from various sources such as Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, World Bank, International Labor Organizations, International Monetary Funds and McKinsey. Based on the data collected, the economic impact on the labor market is analyzed. The results of this study conclude that the high unemployment will create a decrease in demand while the Quantitative Easing policy and private sector debt restructuring from Bank Indonesia is directed to the supply sector. Without the demand for goods and services from consumers, the company will not be able to sell its products and recover as usual. The policy suggested from this study is that the government needs to create manpower and whenever it feels necessary to subsidize the salaries of employees, especially in the national leading sectors.

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