scholarly journals Assessing vaccination priorities for different ages and age-specific vaccination strategies of COVID-19 using an SEIR modelling approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261236
Author(s):  
Cong Yang ◽  
Yali Yang ◽  
Yang Li
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modelling Approach

In the past year, the global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, showing a trend of continuous expansion. With the research and application of vaccines, there is an urgent need to develop some optimal vaccination strategies. How to make a reasonable vaccination strategy to determine the priority of vaccination under the limited vaccine resources to control the epidemic and reduce human casualties? We build a dynamic model with vaccination which is extended the classical SEIR model. By fitting the epidemic data of three countries—China, Brazil, Indonesia, we have evaluated age-specific vaccination strategy for the number of infections and deaths. Furthermore, we have evaluated the impact of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of the basic reproduction number. At last, we also have evaluated the different age structure of the vaccination priority. It shows that giving priority to vaccination of young people can control the number of infections, while giving priority to vaccination of the elderly can greatly reduce the number of deaths in most cases. Furthermore, we have found that young people should be mainly vaccinated to reduce the number of infections. When the emphasis is on reducing the number of deaths, it is important to focus vaccination on the elderly. Simulations suggest that appropriate age-specific vaccination strategies can effectively control the epidemic, both in terms of the number of infections and deaths.

scholarly journals Preventing the Risk of Hospitalization for Respiratory Complications of Influenza among the Elderly: Is There a Better Influenza Vaccination Strategy? A Retrospective Population Study

Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 344
Author(s):  
Silvia Cocchio ◽  
Tolinda Gallo ◽  
Stefania Del Zotto ◽  
Elena Clagnan ◽  
Andrea Iob ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Protective Role ◽  
The Body ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Respiratory Complications ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Impact

Influenza and its complications are an important public health concern, and vaccination remains the most effective prevention measure. However, the efficacy of vaccination depends on several variables, including the type of strategy adopted. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of different influenza vaccination strategies in preventing hospitalizations for influenza and its related respiratory complications. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on data routinely collected by the health services for six consecutive influenza seasons, considering the population aged 65 years or more at the time of their vaccination and living in northeastern Italy. Our analysis concerns 987,266 individuals vaccinated against influenza during the study period. The sample was a mean 78.0 ± 7.7 years old, and 5681 individuals (0.58%) were hospitalized for potentially influenza-related reasons. The hospitalization rate tended to increase over the years, not-significantly peaking in the 2016–2017 flu season (0.8%). Our main findings revealed that hospitalizations related to seasonal respiratory diseases were reduced as the use of the enhanced vaccine increased (R2 = 0.5234; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed the significantly greater protective role of the enhanced vaccine over the conventional vaccination strategy, with adjusted Odds Ratio (adj OR) = 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59–0.66). A prior flu vaccination also had a protective role (adj OR: 0.752 (95% CI: 0.70–0.81)). Age, male sex, and H3N2 mismatch were directly associated with a higher risk of hospitalization for pneumonia. In the second part of our analysis, comparing MF59-adjuvanted trivalent inactivated vaccine (MF59-TIV) with conventional vaccines, we considered 479,397 individuals, of which 3176 (0.66%) were admitted to a hospital. The results show that using the former vaccine reduced the risk of hospitalization by 33% (adj OR: 0.67 (95% CI: 0.59–0.75)). This study contributes to the body of evidence of a greater efficacy of enhanced vaccines, and MF59-adjuvanted TIV in particular, over conventional vaccination strategies in the elderly.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in comparison with other emerging viral diseases: risk of geographic spread via travel

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Wilder-Smith
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Viral Diseases ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Geographic Spread ◽  
Emerging Viral Diseases

Abstract Purpose of review The COVID-19 pandemic poses a major global health threat. The rapid spread was facilitated by air travel although rigorous travel bans and lockdowns were able to slow down the spread. How does COVID-19 compare with other emerging viral diseases of the past two decades? Recent findings Viral outbreaks differ in many ways, such as the individuals most at risk e.g. pregnant women for Zika and the elderly for COVID-19, their vectors of transmission, their fatality rate, and their transmissibility often measured as basic reproduction number. The risk of geographic spread via air travel differs significantly between emerging infectious diseases. Summary COVID-19 is not associated with the highest case fatality rate compared with other emerging viral diseases such as SARS and Ebola, but the combination of a high reproduction number, superspreading events and a globally immunologically naïve population has led to the highest global number of deaths in the past 20 decade compared to any other pandemic.

scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of vaccination rollout and NPIs lifting on COVID-19 transmission with VOC: a case study in Toronto, Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Aruffo ◽  
Pei Yuan ◽  
Yi Tan ◽  
Evgenia Gatov ◽  
Iain Moyles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
Initial Strategy ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Waning Immunity ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Background: Since December 2020, public health agencies have implemented a variety of vaccination strategies to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, along with pre-existing Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). Initial strategy focused on vaccinating the elderly to prevent hospitalizations and deaths. With vaccines becoming available to the broader population, we aimed to determine the optimal strategy to enable the safe lifting of NPIs while avoiding virus resurgence. Methods: We developed a compartmental deterministic SEIR model to simulate the lifting of NPIs under different vaccination rollout scenarios. Using case and vaccination data from Toronto, Canada between December 28, 2020 and May 19, 2021, we estimated transmission throughout past stages of NPI escalation/relaxation to compare the impact of lifting NPIs on different dates on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, given varying degrees of vaccine coverages by 20-year age groups, accounting for waning immunity. Results: We found that, once coverage among the elderly is high enough (80% with at least one dose), the main age groups to target are 20-39 and 40-59 years, whereby first-dose coverage of at least 70% by mid-June 2021 is needed to minimize the possibility of resurgence if NPIs are to be lifted in the summer. While a resurgence was observed for every scenario of NPI lifting, we also found that under an optimistic vaccination coverage (70% by mid-June, postponing reopening from August 2021 to September 2021can reduce case counts and severe outcomes by roughly 80% by December 31, 2021. Conclusions: Our results suggest that focusing the vaccination strategy on the working-age population can curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, even with high vaccination coverage in adults, lifting NPIs to pre-pandemic levels is not advisable since a resurgence is expected to occur, especially with earlier reopening.

scholarly journals Projetos de extensão fazendo a diferença na formação do profissional de Educação Física na Unioeste

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-117
Author(s):  
Ricardo Brandt ◽  
Alberto Saturno Madureira ◽  
Edilson Hobold
Keyword(s):  
Physical Education ◽  
Young People ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
University Education ◽  
Education Professionals ◽  
The Future ◽  
Making A Difference ◽  
Teaching Learning ◽  
The Impact

INTRODUÇÃO: O processo ensino-aprendizagem extrapola a sala de aula, sendo que a extensão universitária contribui de forma significativa nesse processo, melhorando a condição do egresso na atuação do profissional da Educação Física. OBJETIVO: Este trabalho teve por objetivo apresentar o impacto na vida dos acadêmicos que além de participarem das aulas normais propostas na matriz curricular também se envolvem em projetos de extensão e o quanto estas atividades podem contribuir além de suas formações, mas com a melhora dos seus currículos. MÉTODOS: Este estudo e um relato de experiência que envolve três projetos de extensão que são desenvolvidos no campus da Unioeste de Marechal Cândido Rondon, do curso de Educação Física – Bacharelado. RESULTADOS: Três projetos que atualmente existem no curso de Educação Física – Bacharelado na Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, se destacam entre tantos outros, por impactar de forma positiva na formação dos discentes além de proporcionar a comunidade exercícios de forma gratuita, para populações de diferentes idades, sendo eles o projeto Coração de Ouro, com prática de exercício físico para idosos, o projeto Unioeste Runners que oferece treinamento de corrida de rua para jovens, adultos e idosos e o Projeto Futuro do Judô, que oportuniza esta prática esportiva para crianças, adolescentes e jovens de instituições públicas do município de Marechal Cândido Rondon. CONCLUSÃO: Evidencia-se neste trabalho a importância da participação em projetos de extensão no processo de formação universitária, proporcionando vivencias diferenciadas na vida profissional do egresso. ABSTRACT. Extension projects making a difference in the formation of physical education profissionals at Unioeste. BACKGROUND: Teaching-learning process goes beyond the classroom, and university extension contributes significantly this process, improving the condition of graduates in the performance of Physical Education professionals. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to present the impact in lives of academics who, in addition to participating in the normal classes proposed in the curricular matrix, are also involved in extension projects and how much these activities can contribute beyond their training, but with the improvement of their resumes. METHODS: This study is experience report that involves three extension projects that are developed on the Unioeste campus of Marechal Cândido Rondon, the Bacharelado Physical Education course. RESULTS: Three projects that currently exist in the Bachelor’s Degree in Physical Education at the State University of Western Paraná, stand out among many others, for having a positive impact on the training of students, in addition to providing the community with free exercise, for populations of different ages, being the Heart of Gold project, with physical exercise for the elderly, the Unioeste Runners project, which offers running training for young people, adults and the elderly, and the Future of Judo Project, which provides this sports practice for children , adolescents and young people from public institutions in the municipality of Marechal Cândido Rondon. CONCLUSION: This paper highlights the importance of participate in extension projects on university education process, providing differentiated experiences for the egress of great relevance for the future professional.

scholarly journals Technology: Saving and Enriching Life During COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shubhra Sinha ◽  
Ankita Verma ◽  
Priyanka Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Social Networking ◽  
Elderly People ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Senior Citizens ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

The pandemic of COVID-19 has arrested the life of 7.8 million people living on this earth. However, some people are more vulnerable to the risk of this deadly virus. The frailty of senior citizens put them at the top of this list. The past 6 months have not only presented a threat to their physical health but to mental health also. Although lockdown was necessary to check the spread of the coronavirus it culminated in an exponential rise in the problems of loneliness, anxiety, fear, helplessness, and depression. The present paper reviews the role of social networking sites, apps, and other digital platforms in saving and enriching the lives of the elderly, especially those who spent the lockdown alone and were devoid of a regular support system due to unavailability of transport and administrative restrictions on the movement of people. It also analyzes the efficiency of the virtual world in reducing their anxiety of being alone by connecting them with others and also make them feel empowered. The review is based on the online data collected about the insurgence in the percentage of elderly people using such platforms, recent studies analyzing the effects of the COVID 19 pandemic on senior citizens. Besides this personal telephonic discussions were conducted with some elderly people who spent their lockdown alone in their homes. The study was primarily focused on three objectives. Firstly it attempts to understand the ways in which senior citizens made use of social networking sites and various digital platforms for managing life better. Secondly, it analyses the process of adopting technology, and finally, it examined the width and depth of the impact technology created in their life and also the permanence of this change. The analysis clearly suggests an increase in the digital life of elderly people. The process moved in distinct stages from utter confusion to relative ease in using technology, thereby significantly reducing the loneliness, and bringing relatively stable change in the way they lead their life.

scholarly journals A SEIQR Model considering the Effects of Different Quarantined Rates on Worm Propagation in Mobile Internet

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Yonghua Zheng ◽  
Jianhua Zhu ◽  
Chaoan Lai
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Networks ◽  
Manufacturing System ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Mobile Internet ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Smart Manufacturing ◽  
Smart Devices ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Vaccination Strategies

At present, Wi-Fi is a common medium for connecting smart devices to networks in factories. The application of mobile Internet in smart manufacturing system (SMIS) speeds up the process of smart manufacturing but also increases SMIS vulnerability to worm attack from mobile networks. In this paper, we propose a new SLBQR (susceptible-latent-breaking out-quarantined-recovered) model considering vaccination strategies with temporary immunity and quarantined strategies. Based on basic reproduction number, we give expression of quarantined rate φ and obtain the threshold ϕ∗ of quarantined rate φ such that the worm-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable when ϕ≥ϕ∗, implying that the worm dies out eventually and its attack remains under control; the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable when φ<φ∗, namely, the worm is always persistent and spreading within a population. Hence, we give the quarantined strategy ϕ≥ϕ∗ to suppress the spread of virus. In addition, by theoretical analysis, we can conclude that even if the immunity time is unlimited, endemic equilibrium will not become worm-free. In other words, there is a mutation in the virus, which proves that there is no vaccination strategy with permanent immunity. Finally, we simulate our model with different temporary immune time and quarantine rates, and the results verify our theorem.

Modelling the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination regimens on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in Australia

2009 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. GAO ◽  
H. F. GIDDING ◽  
J. G. WOOD ◽  
C. R. MacINTYRE
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Varicella Zoster Virus ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Schedule ◽  
Varicella Zoster ◽  
Dose Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Age Of Infection ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYWe examined the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in Australia, using a mathematical model. Strategies were assessed in terms of varicella (natural and breakthrough) and zoster incidence, morbidity, average age of infection and vaccine effectiveness (VE). Our modelling results suggest that compared to a one-dose vaccination strategy (Australia's current vaccination schedule), a two-dose strategy is expected to not only produce less natural varicella cases (5% vs. 13% of pre-vaccination state, respectively) but also considerably fewer breakthrough varicella cases (only 11·4% of one-dose strategy). Therefore a two-dose infant vaccination programme would be a better long-term strategy for Australia.

41. Youth justice

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesley McAra
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Young People ◽  
Policy Discourse ◽  
Youth Justice ◽  
Children And Young People ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Impact

This chapter explores the founding principles, operational functioning and impact of the institutions which have evolved across the four nations in the United Kingdom to deal with children and young people who come into conflict with the law. It takes as its principal empirical focus the shifting patterns of control that have emerged over the past twenty years—a period characterized by a persistent disjuncture between normative claims about youth justice, evolving policy discourse, and the impact of youth justice practices on the lives of young people. The chapter concludes by arguing that, unless there is better alignment between these dimensions, justice for children and young people cannot and will never be delivered.

scholarly journals A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Buonomo ◽  
Rossella Della Marca ◽  
Alberto d'Onofrio ◽  
Maria Groppi
Keyword(s):  
Characteristic Time ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Information Index ◽  
The Past ◽  
Memory Characteristic ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Information Coverage ◽  
Voluntary Vaccination ◽  
Modelling Approach

In this paper we introduce a compartmental epidemic model describing the transmission of the COVID-19 disease in presence of non-mandatory vaccination. The model takes into account the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination. To this aim, we employ the information index, which mimics the idea that individuals take their decision on vaccination based not only on the present but also on the past information about the spread of the disease. Theoretical analysis and simulations show clearly as a voluntary vaccination can certainly reduce the impact of the disease but it is unable to eliminate it. We also show how the information-related parameters affect the dynamics of the disease. In particular, the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination is better contained in case of large information coverage and small memory characteristic time. Finally, the possible influence of seasonality is also investigated.

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