Cost-benefit evaluation of management strategies for an invasive amphibian with a stage-structured model

Management strategies for invasive populations should be designed to maximise efficacy and efficiency, i.e. to accomplish their goals while operating with the least resource consumption. This optimisation is often difficult to achieve in stage-structured populations, because costs, benefits and feasibility of removing individuals may vary with stage. We use a spatially-explicit stage-structured model to assess efficacy of past, present and alternative control strategies for invasive guttural toads, Sclerophrys gutturalis, in Cape Town. The strategies involve removal of variable proportions of individuals at different life-history stages and spatial scales. We also quantify the time necessary to implement each strategy as a proxy of financial resources and we correct strategy outcomes by implementation of time to estimate efficiency. We found that the strategy initially pursued in Cape Town, which did not target any specific stage, was less efficient than the present strategy, which prioritises adult removal. The initial strategy was particularly inefficient because it did not reduce the population size despite allocating consistent resources to remove eggs and tadpoles. We also found that such removal might be detrimental when applied at high levels. This counter-intuitive outcome is due to the ‘hydra effect’: an undesired increase in population size caused by removing individuals before overcompensatory density dependence. Strategies that exclusively remove adults ensure much greater management efficiency than those that also remove eggs and tadpoles. Available management resources should rather be allocated to increase the proportion of adult guttural toads that are removed or the spatial extent at which this removal is pursued.

Studies Towards the Synthesis of Peloruside A

<p>In the search for new treatments for cancer, advances in biology have provided targets for the destruction of cancer cells. One such structure the microtubule, a protein required for cell division, has been the target of many successful anticancer agents including the multi-million dollar earning Taxol [trademark] (paclitaxel) and the epothilones, currently in late-stage clinical trials. More recently it has been shown that peloruside A 1, a secondary metabolite isolated from the New Zealand marine sponge Mycale hentscheli, prevents cell division by stabilising microtubules, and thus offers promise as a novel anticancer agent. However, due to its limited natural abundance, significant quantities of peloruside A can only be obtained through chemical synthesis. A retrosynthetic analysis of peloruside A divided the molecule into four key fragments: a) the commercially available C-l to C-2 benzyloxy acetic acid fragment; b) the C-3 to C-7 fragment; c) the C-8 to C-11 fragment and d) the remaining C-12 to C-24 portion of the macrocycle and side chain. The C-3 to C-7 and C-8 to C-11 fragments combine to form a key intermediate pyranose ring. This thesis however, addresses the synthesis of two of these key fragments, namely the C-8 to C-11 and C-12 to C-24 fragments. An efficient synthesis of the C-8 to C-11 fragment of peloruside A, starting from commercially available pantolactone, has been developed. This synthesis proceeds in good overall yield, and has been successfully reproduced on the multigram scale. The significant portion of this thesis, however, is dedicated to the synthesis of the C-12 to C-24 fragment. After our initial strategy proved unviable, a short, facile method for the synthesis of the C-12 to C-24 fragment, involving the formation of a bis-silyl ether, was developed. The protocol for its desired coupling, via a boron_mediated, remote 1,5-anti-induction aldol reaction has also been established. These and subsequent studies provided valuable insight into the origin of 1,5-anti induction in boron-mediated aldol reactions.</p>

Studies Towards the Synthesis of Peloruside A

<p>In the search for new treatments for cancer, advances in biology have provided targets for the destruction of cancer cells. One such structure the microtubule, a protein required for cell division, has been the target of many successful anticancer agents including the multi-million dollar earning Taxol [trademark] (paclitaxel) and the epothilones, currently in late-stage clinical trials. More recently it has been shown that peloruside A 1, a secondary metabolite isolated from the New Zealand marine sponge Mycale hentscheli, prevents cell division by stabilising microtubules, and thus offers promise as a novel anticancer agent. However, due to its limited natural abundance, significant quantities of peloruside A can only be obtained through chemical synthesis. A retrosynthetic analysis of peloruside A divided the molecule into four key fragments: a) the commercially available C-l to C-2 benzyloxy acetic acid fragment; b) the C-3 to C-7 fragment; c) the C-8 to C-11 fragment and d) the remaining C-12 to C-24 portion of the macrocycle and side chain. The C-3 to C-7 and C-8 to C-11 fragments combine to form a key intermediate pyranose ring. This thesis however, addresses the synthesis of two of these key fragments, namely the C-8 to C-11 and C-12 to C-24 fragments. An efficient synthesis of the C-8 to C-11 fragment of peloruside A, starting from commercially available pantolactone, has been developed. This synthesis proceeds in good overall yield, and has been successfully reproduced on the multigram scale. The significant portion of this thesis, however, is dedicated to the synthesis of the C-12 to C-24 fragment. After our initial strategy proved unviable, a short, facile method for the synthesis of the C-12 to C-24 fragment, involving the formation of a bis-silyl ether, was developed. The protocol for its desired coupling, via a boron_mediated, remote 1,5-anti-induction aldol reaction has also been established. These and subsequent studies provided valuable insight into the origin of 1,5-anti induction in boron-mediated aldol reactions.</p>

The roles of performance measurement and management in the development and implementation of business ecosystem strategies

PurposePerformance measurement and management (PMM) systems have traditionally enabled strategy execution within and across firms. However, PMM have been criticized as overly static and deterministic and therefore inappropriate for emergent and dynamic contexts, such as those that characterize business ecosystems.The study aims to address the roles of organizational PMM practices in the development and implementation of business ecosystem strategies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors carried out a qualitative, longitudinal study during 2016–2020 at a Japanese multinational technology corporation attempting to create an ecosystem strategy to expand its market and diversify its offering. The authors collected interview, observation and archival data, spanning the period from framing the initial strategy to establishing the ecosystem.FindingsThe process of developing and implementing the ecosystem strategy was emergent and highly iterative, rather than planned and linear, eventually requiring key decision-makers in the company to challenge some of their deeply held assumptions. PMM practices first acted as barriers to ecosystem development by promoting an excessive focus on revenue generation. Once modified, PMM helped capture, convey and reassess the ecosystem strategy. Performance targets, indicators and strategy maps were not just data gathering and reporting mechanisms but key means to express competing perspectives.Practical implicationsWhen developing an ecosystem strategy, managers should adopt a participatory and iterative approach, reviewing the complementary effects of various PMM tools at different points in time.Originality/valueThe study is among the first to provide an in-depth account of ecosystem strategy creation and implementation and to identify the diverse roles and effects of PMM practices in dynamic and complex contexts.

A Nice Tailwind: The EU’s Goal Achievement at the IMO Initial Strategy

In April 2018, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) reached agreement on its Initial Strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping. The Initial Strategy was a success for the EU, as it achieved its long-term objective of reaching an international agreement on greening shipping. However, several factors call into question whether the “success” was the result of the role played by the EU. Using process-tracing, we provide insight into the factors and the mechanism that led the EU to achieve its objective with the Initial Strategy. The article finds that the EU’s goal achievement was the result of a mechanism triggered by (1) its overarching objective for action in the IMO on emissions in international shipping; (2) an entrepreneurial coalition partner; and (3) mounting momentum for action in the IMO. While the EU, including through its member states, played an important role in the negotiations, it only did so relatively late in the process, building on the successful work of the Shipping High Ambition Coalition. Based on this case study, we note implications not only for the proposed aspects of the European Green Deal related to greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, but also our understanding of the EU as an international (climate) actor.

Biomechanical Mechanisms of Improved Balance Recovery to Repeated Backward Slips Simulated by Treadmill Belt Accelerations in Young and Older Adults

Aim: Exposure to repeated gait perturbations improves the balance of older adults (OAs) and decreases their risks of falling, but little is known about the underpinning mechanical adjustments. We aimed to quantify the changing temporo-spatial and kinetic characteristics of balance recovery following repeated backward slips to better understand the mechanical adjustments responsible for improved balance.Methods: We exposed 17 young adults (YAs) (25.2 ± 3.7 years) and 17 OAs (62.4 ± 6.6 years) to 10 backward slips simulated on an instrumented treadmill by unilateral backward belt accelerations. We measured the balance of the participants (margin of stability: MoS), balance recovery (nsteps: number of steps necessary to return to a steady gait for at least three consecutive steps), temporo-spatial (step length), and kinetics [ground reaction force (GRF) angle, lower limb joint moments] for 15 steps following each slip. The results were compared with baseline.Results: Participants in both groups improved their MoS and nsteps with repeated exposure to the slips, but no significant effect of age was detected. During the perturbed step, the GRF vector was directed more posteriorly during mid-stance and more anteriorly during push-off than baseline, which resulted in a longer step. These adjustments were maintained from the first (Slip01) to the last (Slip10) slip, and by Slip10 were correlated with better balance (MoS) on the second recovery step. During the first recovery step following Slip01, participants developed lower plantarflexor and larger knee extensor moments whilst taking a shorter step, these adjustments were correlated with poorer balance and were not maintained with repeated slips. Joint moments and step length of the first recovery step returned to normal levels by Slip10.Conclusion: Young adults and OAs improved their balance with repeated slips. The adjustments that were positively correlated with balance (changes in step length, GRF angle) were maintained whilst those that were not (changes in joint moments) were discarded. All the responses observed in Slip10 were observed in Slip01. The observed balance improvements were achieved by refining the initial strategy rather than by developing a new one. The underlying mechanics were correlated with step length of the first recovery steps, which was associated with balance and should be monitored in fall prevention interventions.

An Improved Lotka–Volterra Model Using Quantum Game Theory

Human decision-making does not conform to the independent decision-making hypothesis from classical decision-making theory. Thus, we introduce quantum decision-making theory into the Lotka–Volterra model (L–V model), to investigate player population dynamics while incorporating the initial strategy, game payoffs and interactive strategies in an open social system. Simulation results show that: (1) initial strategy, entanglement intensity of strategy interaction, and payoffs impact population dynamics; (2) In cooperative coexistence, game players mutually exceed the initial environmental capacity in an open system, but not in competitive coexistence; (3) In competitive coexistence, an initial strategy containing an entanglement intensity of strategies plays a vital role in game outcomes. Furthermore, our proposed model more realistically delineates the characteristics of population dynamics in competitive or cooperative coexistence scenarios.

Science and policy in extremis: the UK’s initial response to COVID-19

Drawing on the SAGE minutes and other documents, I consider the wider lessons for norms of scientific advising that can be learned from the UK’s initial response to coronavirus in the period January–March 2020, when an initial strategy that planned to avoid total suppression of transmission was abruptly replaced by an aggressive suppression strategy. I introduce a distinction between “normatively light advice”, in which no specific policy option is recommended, and “normatively heavy advice” that does make an explicit recommendation. I argue that, although scientific advisers should avoid normatively heavy advice in normal times in order to facilitate democratic accountability, this norm can be permissibly overridden in situations of grave emergency. SAGE’s major mistake in early 2020 was not that of endorsing a particular strategy, nor that of being insufficiently precautionary, but that of relying too heavily on a specific set of “reasonable worst-case” planning assumptions. I formulate some proposals that assign a more circumscribed role to “worst-case” thinking in emergency planning. In an epilogue, I consider what the implications of my proposals would have been for the UK’s response to the “second wave” of late 2020.

Mathematical modeling of vaccination rollout and NPIs lifting on COVID-19 transmission with VOC: a case study in Toronto, Canada

ABSTRACT Background: Since December 2020, public health agencies have implemented a variety of vaccination strategies to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, along with pre-existing Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). Initial strategy focused on vaccinating the elderly to prevent hospitalizations and deaths. With vaccines becoming available to the broader population, we aimed to determine the optimal strategy to enable the safe lifting of NPIs while avoiding virus resurgence. Methods: We developed a compartmental deterministic SEIR model to simulate the lifting of NPIs under different vaccination rollout scenarios. Using case and vaccination data from Toronto, Canada between December 28, 2020 and May 19, 2021, we estimated transmission throughout past stages of NPI escalation/relaxation to compare the impact of lifting NPIs on different dates on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, given varying degrees of vaccine coverages by 20-year age groups, accounting for waning immunity. Results: We found that, once coverage among the elderly is high enough (80% with at least one dose), the main age groups to target are 20-39 and 40-59 years, whereby first-dose coverage of at least 70% by mid-June 2021 is needed to minimize the possibility of resurgence if NPIs are to be lifted in the summer. While a resurgence was observed for every scenario of NPI lifting, we also found that under an optimistic vaccination coverage (70% by mid-June, postponing reopening from August 2021 to September 2021can reduce case counts and severe outcomes by roughly 80% by December 31, 2021. Conclusions: Our results suggest that focusing the vaccination strategy on the working-age population can curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, even with high vaccination coverage in adults, lifting NPIs to pre-pandemic levels is not advisable since a resurgence is expected to occur, especially with earlier reopening.