scholarly journals The Seasonal Correlation Between Temperature and Precipitation Over Korea and Europe and the Future Change From RCP8.5 Scenario

Atmosphere ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Uk Kim ◽  
Kyung-On Boo ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Won-Tae Kwon ◽  
Young-Hwa Byun
Keyword(s):  
Future Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Correlation

Future Extreme Climates Projection over Huang-Huai-Hai Region of China

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Future

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.

Future changes in heatwaves over Africa at the convection-permitting scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathryn Birch ◽  
Lawrence Jackson ◽  
Declan Finney ◽  
John Marsham ◽  
Rachel Stratton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Driving Mechanisms ◽  
The Future ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

<p>Mean temperatures and their extremes have increased over Africa since the latter half of the 20th century and this trend is projected to continue, with very frequent, intense and often deadly heatwaves likely to occur very regularly over much of Africa by 2100. It is crucial that we understand the scale of the future increases in extremes and the driving mechanisms. We diagnose daily maximum wet bulb temperature heatwaves, which allows for both the impact of temperature and humidity, both critical for human health and survivability. During wet bulb heatwaves, humidity and cloud cover increase, which limits the surface shortwave radiation flux but increases longwave warming. It is found from observations and ERA5 reanalysis that approximately 30% of wet bulb heatwaves over Africa are associated with daily rainfall accumulations of more than 1 mm/day on the first day of the heatwave. The first ever pan-African convection-permitting climate model simulations of present-day and RCP8.5 future climate are utilised to illustrate the projected future change in heatwaves, their drivers and their sensitivity to the representation of convection. Compared to ERA5, the convection-permitting model better represents the frequency and magnitude of present-day wet bulb heatwaves than a version of the model with more traditional parameterised convection. The future change in heatwave frequency, duration and magnitude is also larger in the convective-scale simulation, suggesting CMIP-style models may underestimate the future change in wet bulb heat extremes over Africa. The main reason for the larger future change appears to be the ability of the model to produce larger anomalies relative to its climatology in precipitation, cloud and the surface energy balance.</p>

scholarly journals Regional climate change scenarios for Greece: future temperature and precipitation projections form ensembles of RCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-421 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Emission ◽  
Spatial Grid ◽  
Of Greece

The potential regional future changes in seasonal (winter and summer) temperature and precipitation are assessed for the greater area of Greece over the 21st century, under A2, A1B and B2 future emission scenarios of IPCC. Totally twenty-two simulations from various regional climate models (RCMs) were assessed; fourteen of them with a spatial grid resolution of 50km for the period 2071-2100 under A2 (9 simulations) and B2 (5 simulations) scenarios and eight of them with an even finer resolution of 25km under A1B scenario for both 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 time periods. The future changes in temperature and precipitation were calculated with respect to the control period (1961-1990). All the models estimated warmer and dryer conditions over the study area. The warming is more intense during the summer months, with the changes being larger in the continental than in the marine area of Greece. In terms of precipitation, the simulations of the RCMs estimate a decrease up to -60% (A2 scenario). Finally it is shown that the changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe play a key role in the changes of the future precipitation and temperature characteristics over the domain of study in a consistent way for the different emission scenarios.

Uncertainty in the future change of extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin: the role of internal climate variability

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1789-1800 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. van Pelt ◽  
J. J. Beersma ◽  
T. A. Buishand ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
J. Schellekens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
The Future

Linking Physical Activity and Aerobic Fitness: Are We Active Because We Are Fit, or Are We Fit Because We Are Active?

2006 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han C.G. Kemper ◽  
Lando L.J. Koppes
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Aerobic Fitness ◽  
Longitudinal Analyses ◽  
Biological Parameters ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
The Future

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that physical activity (PA), measured over a period of 23 years, is beneficial to aerobic fitness (VO2max) in boys and girls (13-36 years) who were enrolled in the Amsterdam Growth and Health Longitudinal Study (AGAHLS). PA was measured using a standardized activity interview. VO2max was assessed directly with a maximal running test on a treadmill. To assess the longitudinal relationship between PA and VO2max, different longitudinal analyses were carried out over different age periods, correcting for various confounders such as lifestyle parameters, biological parameters, and initial VO2max. Highly significant relationships (p < .05) were observed between PA and VO2max in four of the five analyses. However, in an autoregression analysis, when current PA has been related to the future change in VO2max, the results are not any more significant (p > .05). Analysis of the data of PA and VO2max from the AGAHLS population does not fully support the hypothesis that PA affects VO2max.

DOES THE FORWARD PREMIUM/DISCOUNT HELP TO PREDICT THE FUTURE CHANGE IN THE EXCHANGE RATE?

1992 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. E. Goodhart ◽  
Patrick C. McMahon ◽  
Yerima La wan Ngama
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Forward Premium ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Evolution of Rhonegletscher, Switzerland, over the past 125 years and in the future: application of an improved flowline model

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 268-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shin Sugiyama ◽  
Andreas Bauder ◽  
Conradin Zahno ◽  
Martin Funk
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Shape Effects ◽  
Precipitation Records

AbstractTo study the past and future evolution of Rhonegletscher, Switzerland, a flowline model was developed to include valley shape effects more accurately than conventional flowband models. In the model, the ice flux at a gridpoint was computed by a two-dimensional ice-flow model applied to the valley cross-section. The results suggested the underestimation of the accumulation area, which seems to be a general problem of flowline modelling arising from the model’s one-dimensional nature. The corrected mass balance was coupled with the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) change, which was reconstructed for the period 1878–2003 from temperature and precipitation records, to run the model for the past 125 years. The model satisfactorily reproduced both changes in the terminus position and the total ice volume derived from digital elevation models of the surface obtained by analyses of old maps and aerial photographs. This showed the model’s potential to simulate glacier evolution when an accurate mass balance could be determined. The future evolution of Rhonegletscher was evaluated with three mass-balance conditions: the mean for the period 1994–2003, and the most negative (2003) and positive (1978) mass-balance values for the past 50 years. The model predicted volume changes of –18%, –58% and +38% after 50 years for the three conditions, respectively.

Monsoon dynamics in past and future climates: the Holocene is not an analogue of future projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta D'Agostino ◽  
Juergen Bader ◽  
Josephine Brown ◽  
Simona Bordoni ◽  
David Ferreira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
The Relationship

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;In recent decades the paleo-modelling community has sought to identify past warm climates that could provide analogues for greenhouse induced warming. In spite of some similarities in temperature distributions (e.g. Pliocene, Eocene, Cretaceous and summertime Northern Hemisphere mid-Holocene), however, it is unlikely that any past epoch can provide detailed insight into future warming, especially in terms of changes in the hydrological cycle. Reviewing recent work, we show that changes in the atmospheric circulation can dramatically alter the relationship between temperature and precipitation, weakening the possibility for useful climate analogs as envisioned in the literature. We present results of moisture budget decomposition from mid-Holocene and Representative Pathways Scenario RCP8.5, two climates in which monsoons are stronger and wider than the pre-Industrial era. We find that Northern Hemisphere monsoons are much stronger and wider during the Holocene than what projected for the end of the 21st century. This is because the thermodynamic (i.e. moisture changes) and dynamic responses (i.e. mean-flow changes) reinforce each other in the mid-Holocene while they partially cancel out in the future climate. Therefore, the Holocene does not represent an analogue of the future given the opposite dynamical responses in the two climates. Consistent with other studies, our work highlights that changes in atmospheric circulation are the major source of uncertainty for future projection of hydrological cycle, especially at regional scales.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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