Climate-Change Induced Permafrost Degradation in Yakutia, East Siberia

Current climate change in the northern regions is a well-recognized phenomenon. In central Yakutia (the Sakha Republic), the long-term trend displays a consistent mean annual air temperature (MAAT) increase from −9.6˚C (1980) to −6.7˚C (2019), corresponding to an average 0.07˚C annual rise, with pronounced temperature anomalies in the last decade. The analyzed meteorological records of the past 40 years indicate a progressing climate change pattern of increased MAAT and mean annual precipitation (MAP) that occurs in 5 – 7 yr cycles. The complex interactions of regional climatic variations with local geological and environmental conditions influence the frozen ground’s thermal balance, which, in turn, impacts thermokarst development. Co-acting factors of temperature rise and higher precipitation rates activate thermokarst lake dynamics and lake expansion following snow- and rainfall-rich preceding years. April experiences the greatest warming trend with a present (2020) 5˚C rise from 1980 with shortening of the winter season. Climate warming together with natural forest fires and anthropogenic activities (pastoral practices and logging) contribute to the taiga landscape opening due to reduced albedo and the greater exposure to solar radiation. The regional hydrologic network undergoes restructuring caused by drained meltwater released from the degraded cryolithozone with peaks of the fluvial discharge in late spring and early summer generating bank erosion. The negative effects of the progressing ground thaw, which are particularly observed in lowland locations, pose risks to local settlements and generate major environmental and engineering problems in the formerly permafrost-stable central and northern areas of Siberia.

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Detection of annual and seasonal temperature variability and change using non-parametric test- A case study of Bundelkhand region of central India

Journal of Agrometeorology ◽

10.54386/jam.v23i4.144 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 23 (4) ◽

pp. 402-408

Author(s):

SUCHIT K. RAI ◽

SUNIL KUMAR ◽

MANOJ CHAUDHARY

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Economic Status ◽

Winter Season ◽

Central India ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Temperature Variability ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Economic Activities

Consequences of global warming and climate change are major threat to humans and their socio-economic activities. Agriculture of Bundelkhand region is supposed to be more vulnerable due to emerging scenario of climate change and poor socio-economic status of farming community. Many studies carried out elsewhere have shown evidence of regional temperature variability along with global climate changes. This study focuses on the temporal variability and trend in annual and seasonal temperature (1901-2012) at six locations of Bundelkhand region. The results of the analysis reveal that the annual maximum (TMax) and minimum (TMin) temperature has significantly increasing trend in all the locations in the range of 0.5 to 2.0oC 100 year-1 and 0.5 to 1.1 oC 100 year-1, respectively. Seasonal analysis revealed warming trend in both TMax (0.6-2.6oC100 year-1) and TMin (0.9 to 2.3 oC 100 year-1) during post-monsoon and winter season in all the locations. Majority of the locations showed cooling trend (0.3-1.0 oC 100 year-1), in the mean maximum and minimum temperature during monsoon season except at two locations i.e Jhansi and Banda. However, a significant positive trends (2.9 oC) in the TMin was found for the period of hundred years at Banda district during monsoon season.

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Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

10.5194/esd-2017-55 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yannick Le Page ◽

Douglas Morton ◽

Hartin Corinne ◽

Bond-Lamberty Ben ◽

José Miguel Cardoso Pereira ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Amazon Basin ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Burned Area ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Amazon Forest ◽

Fire Activity

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

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Impacts of climate change on Public Health of the Mediterranean population

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.512 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

S Paz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Adaptation Planning ◽

Poor People ◽

Mediterranean Population ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

The Mediterranean

Abstract The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. This populated region is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels, parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk. Consequently, the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks as result of climate change increases significantly. Climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed parallel with adaptation planning that become ever more imperative. In order to achieve these goals, it is essential to define indicators of vulnerability and exposure based on health impact assessment, as well as indicators that will promote adaptation planning and resilience for health risk management. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, such indicators will contribute to correct preparedness at the regional and national levels.

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Temporal-spatial evolution patterns of the annual precipitation considering the climate change conditions in the Sanjiang Plain

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2015.012 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 198-211 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Qiang Fu ◽

Tianxiao Li ◽

Tienan Li ◽

Heng Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Central Area ◽

Periodic Variation ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Sanjiang Plain ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Trend Test ◽

Annual Fluctuation ◽

The Sanjiang Plain

The wavelet theory, Mann-Kendall trend test and ArcGIS spatial analysis theory were used to analyze annual precipitation and mean temperature data that were collected at seven national weather stations in the Sanjiang Plain from 1956 to 2013 to identify the temporal-spatial patterns of annual precipitation changes caused by climate change conditions. The results showed that the climate in the Sanjiang Plain experienced a significant warming trend over the past 50 years, with the temperature increasing by 1.35 °C since the 1960s. Additionally, the precipitation also exhibited certain trend characteristics, which revealed a larger difference in different areas. The annual precipitation exhibited 23-year and 12-year periodic variation characteristics, and the period with above-average annual precipitation levels is expected to continue after 2013. The spatial distributions of the mean annual precipitation for different years were different, whereas the spatial distribution of the multi-year mean precipitation was relatively uniform. The annual variation amplitude of the annual precipitation in the central area was larger than that in the south. The overall inter-annual fluctuation of the annual precipitation was relatively small with a mostly normal distribution. The results can provide guidance for scientific investigations and the reasonable use of rainfall resources in the Sanjiang Plain.

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Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 1237-1246 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Yannick Le Page ◽

Douglas Morton ◽

Corinne Hartin ◽

Ben Bond-Lamberty ◽

José Miguel Cardoso Pereira ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Amazon Basin ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Burned Area ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Amazon Forest ◽

Fire Activity

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

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Continued Hydrothermal and Radiative Pressure on Changed Cropland in China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11143762 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (14) ◽

pp. 3762 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yiming Fu ◽

Yaoping Cui ◽

Yaochen Qin ◽

Nan Li ◽

Liangyu Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Break Line ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Agricultural Water Use ◽

Northern Regions ◽

Increasing Temperature ◽

Over Time

Both cropland and climate change over time, but the potential effects of climate change on cropland is currently not well understood. Here, we combined temporally and spatially explicit dynamics of cropland with air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. China’s cropland showed a clear northward-shifting trend from 1990 to 2015. The cropland decreased south of the break line at 38° N, whereas it increased from the break line to northern regions. Correspondingly, the temperature showed a significant warming trend in the early part of the study period, which slowed down in later years. During the whole study period, both precipitation and solar radiation decreased over time, showed no significant linear characteristics, and the annual fluctuations were very large. The cropland areas in China showed a displacement characteristic with the increasing temperature, precipitation, and radiation. Overall, the cropland was shifting towards the high-temperature, low-precipitation, and low-radiation areas. The cropland dynamics indicate that they are likely to face severe drought and radiation pressure. Our findings imply that more resources such as irrigation may be needed for cropland, which will undoubtedly aggravate the agricultural water use in most northern regions, and the potential impacts on food security will further emerge in the future.

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Environmental Vulnerability Modeling in the Extensively Urbanized Arctic Center Integrating Remote Sensing, Landscape Mapping, and Local Knowledge

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16268 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sébastien Gadal ◽

Moisei Zakharov ◽

Jurate Kamicaityte ◽

Antonina Savvinova ◽

Yuri Danilov

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Natural Hazards ◽

Local Knowledge ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Local Population ◽

Permafrost Degradation ◽

Landscape Classification ◽

Environmental Vulnerability ◽

The Impact

Arctic extensively urbanized centers are subject to the impact of many negative environmental phenomena progressing in terms of global climate change and regional development in Yakutia in the context of poor and missing databases. For this reason, the modeling of the risk exposures is based on combining the remote sensing, and local knowledge of inhabitants. According to the occurrences of the natural hazards, the territorial management and the decision-making system require the identification and assessment of natural risks to which the rural populations localized in the towns and villages are exposed, for example, in the urban center of Khamagatta located at 70km to the North from Yakutsk near the Lena River. The main environmental vulnerability exposures are seasonal: springtime floods between May and June, the forest fires from June to August, the cyclic permafrost degradation, and river erosion impacts.The current vulnerability impacts, damages to the lands and the settlements, and the populations risk exposures are analyzed from the maps of vulnerabilities created from remote sensing satellite Sentinel 2A/B series, with the local knowledge of the inhabitants of Khamagatta who lived and perceived all events. All the data generated, maps, models of vulnerability exposures, and local knowledge are integrated, combined, and merged into the geographic information system (GIS). The GIS modeling combines the risk of natural hazards and the damages, and the risk knowledge and perceptions of the inhabitants. Land uses, Landscape classification, and the land cover is made by Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) using an optical time series of Sentinel 2 images (2015-2020) including the population knowledge for the recognition of the environmental vulnerabilities. The methodological approach included the participation of local people in workshops through discussion and participatory mapping, questionnaires, and interviews in two stages. The first stage included the development of the knowledge database for a comprehensive understanding of the life of the local population, including the forms of adaptation to the negative natural phenomena. The collected information is delocalized and integrated into the GIS. The second stage consisted of validation and discussion, including stakeholders (municipality and rescue services) to increase the reliability and legitimacy of the research results.Perceptions of the inhabitants of Khamagatta are correlated with the maps of risk exposures generated by remote sensing to increase the accuracy of the environmental process modeling and landscape classification. The combination of the environmental change dynamics, the impacts on the towns and villages with the human perception and experience constitutes the main base supporting the prevention mapping of the natural hazards. This data could be very useful in planning the development of Arctic towns and villages and proposing evolution scenarios and urban planning models and strategies for increasing their resilience and adaptation to climate change consequences.

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Impacts of climatic changes on the Mediterranean population: public health aspects

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1709 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Shlomit Paz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Climatic Changes ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Poor People ◽

Mediterranean Population ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

The Mediterranean

The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. This populated region is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels, parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk. Consequently, the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly as a result of climate change.Climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases (such as West Nile virus, chikungunya and zika) and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people and migrants, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed parallel with adaptation plans that become ever more imperative. In order to achieve these goals, it is essential to define indicators of vulnerability and exposure based on health impact assessment, as well as indicators that will promote adaptation planning and resilience for health risk management. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, such indicators will contribute to correct preparedness at the regional and national levels.

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