scholarly journals RELATIVE RISK OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19) IN SOUTH SULAWESI PROVINCE, INDONESIA: BAYESIAN SPATIAL MODELING

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-169
Author(s):  
Aswi Aswi ◽  
Andi Mauliyana ◽  
Muhammad Arif Tiro ◽  
Muhammad Nadjib Bustan
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
The World ◽  
Bayesian Spatial Modeling ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
Conditional Autoregressive ◽  
The Mean

The Covid-19 has exploded in the world since late 2019. South Sulawesi Province has the highest number of Covid-19 cases outside Java Island in Indonesia. This paper aims to determine the most suitable Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) localised models in modeling the relative risk (RR) of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Bayesian spatial CAR localised models with different hyperpriors were performed adopting a Poisson distribution for the confirmed Covid-19 counts to examine the grouping of Covid-19 cases. All confirmed cases of Covid-19 (19 March 2020-18 February 2021) for each district were included. Overall, Bayesian CAR localised model with G = 5 with a hyperprior IG (1, 0.1) is the preferred model to estimate the RR based on the two criteria used. Makassar and Toraja Utara have the highest and the lowest RR, respectively. The group formed in the localised model is influenced by the magnitude of the mean and variance in the count data between areas. Using suitable Bayesian spatial CAR localised models enables the identification of high-risk areas of Covid-19 cases. This localised model could be applied in other case studies.

scholarly journals Comparison of Bayesian Spatio-temporal Models of Tuberculosis in Makassar, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2123 (1) ◽  
pp. 012048
Author(s):  
Sukarna ◽  
Maya Sari Wahyuni ◽  
Rahmat Syam
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
Temporal Modelling ◽  
Conditional Autoregressive ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract South Sulawesi province ranks sixth-highest in tuberculosis (TB) in Indonesia. Makassar ranks the highest in South Sulawesi. Spatio-temporal modelling can identify the areas with high risk as well as the temporal relative risk of disease. We analysed the tuberculosis cases data from Makassar City Health Office for 15 districts over seven years from 2012 to 2018. Seven models of Bayesian Spatio-temporal (BST) Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) were applied by using the measures of goodness of fit (GOF) namely, DIC and WAIC. The results showed that BST CAR localised model with G = 3 has the lowest DIC and BST CAR adaptive has the lowest WAIC. Based on the preferred model (Bayesian ST CAR localised with G=3), Panakukang district had the highest relative risk of TB in 2012, 2013, and 2014, while Makassar district had the highest relative risk of TB in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Mamajang had the highest relative risk of TB in 2018.

scholarly journals Non-parametric upper bounds on risk aversion with mean-variance utility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Denny
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Relative Risk Aversion ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Non Parametric

Based on a simple prior, this note derives upper bounds for the coefficient of absolute & relative risk aversion if utility can be written as depending linearly on the mean and variance of income.

Perbedaan Pengetahuan Siswa Tentang Penyakit Hepatitis A Sebelum Dan Sesudah Penyuluhan Di MTsN 02 Bondowoso Tahun 2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Putri Megasari
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis A ◽  
Hepatitis Virus ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Test Design ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Post Test ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Paired T Test

Hepatitis has become a health problem in the world. The hepatitis virus infected many people. According to the teacher of MTsN 02 Bondowoso more than 20 students have hepatitis A viral infection. The purpose of this research was to know the differences of students' knowledge about hepatitis A before and after counseling in MTsN 02 Bondowoso 2015. This study used pre-experimental (pre-post test design). This study used stratified random sampling technique, 127 students from 270 sample involved this research,and 143 students was excluded. We used questionnaires to collect data. The results showed that the mean value of the students 'knowledge about hepatitis A before counseling in MTsN 02 Bondowoso 2015 was 83.96 with the lowest value of 37.5 and the highest value was 100. The mean value of the students' knowledge about hepatitis A after counseling in MTsN 02 Bondowoso 2015 was 93.21 with the lowest value waf 62.5 and the highest value was 100. Paired t test showed that t (-9.07) > t table (1.98), the null hypothesis (H0) was rejected. There was a difference between students' knowledge about hepatitis A before and after counseling in MTsN 02 Bondowoso 2015. This study showed that routine counseling by healthcare provider was important to prevent hepatitis A infection.; Keywords: counseling, knowledge of students, hepatitis

Modern Office Technology Competencies Expected of Office Technology and Management (OTM) Graduate Workers in Delta State.

2019 ◽  
pp. 81-88
Author(s):  
Ozoem Martha ◽  
Chibuike Victoria C. ◽  
Ugwunwoti Emeka P.
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Technology Competencies ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
The World ◽  
Alpha Reliability ◽  
Communication Competencies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Level Of Significance ◽  
Descriptive Survey

This study was carried out to determine the modern office technology competencies expected of office technology and management (OTM) graduate workers by supervisors in Delta State. The study was guided by two research questions and two hypotheses tested at 0.05 level of significance. The respondents consisted of 142 supervisors, made up of 74 heads of department and directors of government establishments, and 68 managers and directors of private establishments in the study area. Descriptive survey research design was used to conduct the study and 28 – items questionnaire were used to collect data from respondents. The instrument was validated by three experts and had a Cronbach Alpha reliability coefficient of 0.77. Means with standard deviations were used to answer the research questions, while t-test was used to test the null hypotheses. The extent of supervisor‟s expectations of information processing competencies did not differ significantly based on the mean ratings of male and female supervisors of OTM graduates in government and private establishments. The findings also revealed that supervisors expect much information processing and communication competencies from the OTM graduate workers. Based on the findings and the implications, it was recommended among others that, curriculum planners, business and OTM education lecturers should ensure that the competencies required for modern office technologies are entrenched and taught in the institutions to prepare the OTM graduates for the world of work.

Exploring Attendance at a Traditional Cultural Event: The Case of a Holy Week Celebration

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Víctor Lafuente ◽  
José Ángel Sanz ◽  
María Devesa
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Capital ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Data Model ◽  
Social Aspects ◽  
Social Nature ◽  
The World ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
The City ◽  
Complex Expression

Holy Week is one of the most important traditions in many parts of the world and a complex expression of cultural heritage. The main goal of this article is to explore which factors determine participation in Holy Week celebrations in the city of Palencia (Spain), measured through the number of processions attended. For this purpose, an econometric count data model is used. Variables included in the model not only reflect participants' sociodemographic features but other factors reflecting cultural capital, accumulated experience, and social aspects of the event. A distinction is drawn between three types of participants: brotherhood members, local residents, and visitors, among whom a survey was conducted to collect the information required. A total of 248 surveys were carried out among brotherhood members, 209 among local residents, and 259 among visitors. The results confirm the religious and social nature of this event, especially in the case of local participants. However, in the case of visitors, participation also depends on aspects reflecting the celebration's cultural and tourist dimension—such as visiting other religious and cultural attractions—suggesting the existence of specific tourism linked to the event. All of this suggests the need to manage the event, ensuring a balance is struck between the various stakeholders' interests and developing a tourist strategy that prioritizes public-private cooperation.

scholarly journals Weighted statistical binary patterns for facial feature representation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hung Phuoc Truong ◽  
Thanh Phuong Nguyen ◽  
Yong-Guk Kim
Keyword(s):  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Facial Feature ◽  
Input Image ◽  
Feature Representation ◽  
Illumination Variation ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Face Datasets ◽  
Degraded Images

AbstractWe present a novel framework for efficient and robust facial feature representation based upon Local Binary Pattern (LBP), called Weighted Statistical Binary Pattern, wherein the descriptors utilize the straight-line topology along with different directions. The input image is initially divided into mean and variance moments. A new variance moment, which contains distinctive facial features, is prepared by extracting root k-th. Then, when Sign and Magnitude components along four different directions using the mean moment are constructed, a weighting approach according to the new variance is applied to each component. Finally, the weighted histograms of Sign and Magnitude components are concatenated to build a novel histogram of Complementary LBP along with different directions. A comprehensive evaluation using six public face datasets suggests that the present framework outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and achieves 98.51% for ORL, 98.72% for YALE, 98.83% for Caltech, 99.52% for AR, 94.78% for FERET, and 99.07% for KDEF in terms of accuracy, respectively. The influence of color spaces and the issue of degraded images are also analyzed with our descriptors. Such a result with theoretical underpinning confirms that our descriptors are robust against noise, illumination variation, diverse facial expressions, and head poses.

scholarly journals Groups and Individuals: Optical Flow Patterns of Broiler Chicken Flocks Are Correlated with the Behavior of Individual Birds

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 568
Author(s):  
Sabine G. Gebhardt-Henrich ◽  
Ariane Stratmann ◽  
Marian Stamp Dawkins
Keyword(s):  
Optical Flow ◽  
Broiler Chicken ◽  
Average Length ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Water Test ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
The Mean

Group level measures of welfare flocks have been criticized on the grounds that they give only average measures and overlook the welfare of individual animals. However, we here show that the group-level optical flow patterns made by broiler flocks can be used to deliver information not just about the flock averages but also about the proportion of individuals in different movement categories. Mean optical flow provides information about the average movement of the whole flock while the variance, skew and kurtosis quantify the variation between individuals. We correlated flock optical flow patterns with the behavior and welfare of a sample of 16 birds per flock in two runway tests and a water (latency-to-lie) test. In the runway tests, there was a positive correlation between the average time taken to complete the runway and the skew and kurtosis of optical flow on day 28 of flock life (on average slow individuals came from flocks with a high skew and kurtosis). In the water test, there was a positive correlation between the average length of time the birds remained standing and the mean and variance of flock optical flow (on average, the most mobile individuals came from flocks with the highest mean). Patterns at the flock level thus contain valuable information about the activity of different proportions of the individuals within a flock.

scholarly journals Improved inference for areal unit count data using graph-based optimisation

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Lee ◽  
Kitty Meeks ◽  
William Pettersson
Keyword(s):  
Random Effects ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Prior Distribution ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Sharing Rule ◽  
Markov Random ◽  
Spatial Correlation Structure ◽  
Conditional Autoregressive ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Special Case

AbstractSpatio-temporal count data relating to a set of non-overlapping areal units are prevalent in many fields, including epidemiology and social science. The spatial autocorrelation inherent in these data is typically modelled by a set of random effects that are assigned a conditional autoregressive prior distribution, which is a special case of a Gaussian Markov random field. The autocorrelation structure implied by this model depends on a binary neighbourhood matrix, where two random effects are assumed to be partially autocorrelated if their areal units share a common border, and are conditionally independent otherwise. This paper proposes a novel graph-based optimisation algorithm for estimating either a static or a temporally varying neighbourhood matrix for the data that better represents its spatial correlation structure, by viewing the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbour relations as the set of edges. The improved estimation performance of our methodology compared to the commonly used border sharing rule is evidenced by simulation, before the method is applied to a new respiratory disease surveillance study in Scotland between 2011 and 2017.

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