scholarly journals Uncertainty assessment based on scenarios derived from static connectivity metrics

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 799-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noémi Jakab

AbstractThe approach presented in this paper characterises the uncertainty related to the outputs of a sequential Gaussian simulation. The input data set was a random subset of a complete CT slice. To outline possible, characteristically different groups of realisations within the outputs, we performed a distance-based classification of the realisations based on their derived connectivity features. Global metrics of connectivity also called geo-body or geoobject connectivity is derivative properties related to the overall structure of the simulated field. Based on these attributes stochastic images, which show the same characteristics from a statistical point of view become distinguishable. The scenarios generated this way are able to bridge the gap of information content between the individual stochastic images and the entirety of the pooled realisations. Scenarios are also capable of highlighting the groups of most probable outcomes from the realisations while screening the effect of ergodic fluctuations of the individual stochastic images. They yield a more realistic representation of the smaller scale heterogeneities than the individual stochastic images. In this sense, our approach is able to resolve the question of how many realisations to choose for the assessment of uncertainty. Besides, it eliminates subjectivity and supports reproducible decision-making when the task is to select stochastic images for dynamic simulation.

2020 ◽  

BACKGROUND: This paper deals with territorial distribution of the alcohol and drug addictions mortality at a level of the districts of the Slovak Republic. AIM: The aim of the paper is to explore the relations within the administrative territorial division of the Slovak Republic, that is, between the individual districts and hence, to reveal possibly hidden relation in alcohol and drug mortality. METHODS: The analysis is divided and executed into the two fragments – one belongs to the female sex, the other one belongs to the male sex. The standardised mortality rate is computed according to a sequence of the mathematical relations. The Euclidean distance is employed to compute the similarity within each pair of a whole data set. The cluster analysis examines is performed. The clusters are created by means of the mutual distances of the districts. The data is collected from the database of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic for all the districts of the Slovak Republic. The covered time span begins in the year 1996 and ends in the year 2015. RESULTS: The most substantial point is that the Slovak Republic possesses the regional disparities in a field of mortality expressed by the standardised mortality rate computed particularly for the diagnoses assigned to the alcohol and drug addictions at a considerably high level. However, the female sex and the male sex have the different outcome. The Bratislava III District keeps absolutely the most extreme position. It forms an own cluster for the both sexes too. The Topoľčany District bears a similar extreme position from a point of view of the male sex. All the Bratislava districts keep their mutual notable dissimilarity. Contrariwise, evaluation of a development of the regional disparities among the districts looks like notably heterogeneously. CONCLUSIONS: There are considerable regional discrepancies throughout the districts of the Slovak Republic. Hence, it is necessary to create a common platform how to proceed with the solution of this issue.


Author(s):  
Richard Heuver ◽  
Ronald Heijmans

In this chapter the authors provide a method to aggregate large value payment system transaction data for executing simulations with the Bank of Finland payment simulator. When transaction data sets get large, simulation may become too time consuming in terms of computer power. Therefore, insufficient data from a statistical point of view can be processed. The method described in this chapter provides a solution to this statistical problem. In order to work around this problem the authors provide a method to aggregate transaction data set in such a way that it does not compromise the outcome of the simulation significantly. Depending on the type of simulations only a few business days or up to a year of data is required. In case of stress scenario analysis, in which e.g. liquidity position of banks deteriorates, long time series are preferred as business days can differ substantially. As an example this chapter shows that aggregating all low value transactions in the Dutch part of TARGET2 will not lead to a significantly different simulation outcome.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingkai Qu ◽  
Weidong Li ◽  
Chuanrong Zhang ◽  
Biao Huang ◽  
Yongcun Zhao

Estimating standard-exceeding probabilities of toxic metals in soil is crucial for environmental evaluation. Because soil pH and land use types have strong effects on the bioavailability of trace metals in soil, they were taken into account by some environmental protection agencies in making composite soil environmental quality standards (SEQSs) that contain multiple metal thresholds under different pH and land use conditions. This study proposed a method for estimating the standard-exceeding probability map of soil cadmium using a composite SEQS. The spatial variability and uncertainty of soil pH and site-specific land use type were incorporated through simulated realizations by sequential Gaussian simulation. A case study was conducted using a sample data set from a 150 km2area in Wuhan City and the composite SEQS for cadmium, recently set by the State Environmental Protection Administration of China. The method may be useful for evaluating the pollution risks of trace metals in soil with composite SEQSs.


Author(s):  
Jordi Villoro i Armengol ◽  
Santiago Estaún i Ferrer

<p class="Textoindependiente21">The main purpose of the research has been to dictate the role intuition plays in the decision-making of undergraduate marketing students.</p><p class="Textoindependiente21">The study and process of decision-making has always been focused on statistics and mathematics by the business world and universities, while most psychological aspects have been avoided.</p><p class="Textoindependiente21">In recent years emotions, cognitive processes, intuition, etc., have increased their importance in the decision-making process; but they still have a long way to go.</p><p class="Textoindependiente21">The research, which this article is based on, has been performed under a sample of 404 individuals aged 20 to 25 years; half of which are marketing students in ESIC Business &amp; Marketing School. Their decisions are analysed and compared with other collectives to observe if the information is an accurate significant variable for their decision-making.</p><p class="Textoindependiente21">A questionnaire was administered to the participants in which they were asked the possible success or failure of specific products if they were to be launched on the market. These products were real and chosen by marketing experts.</p><p class="Textoindependiente21">The participation of the individual in physical, cultural, etc. activities was also taken into account as well as their personal profile and psychographic data.</p><p>The results obtained vary significantly from a statistical point of view and prove that training, background, participations on social activities and the perception of one's intuitive capacity are keys to success when it comes to decision-making.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna M. Jensen ◽  
Linda K. Petersson ◽  
Annika Felton ◽  
Magnus Löf ◽  
Maria Persson

AbstractCompetition from neighboring vegetation and browsing by large herbivores are two of the most important factors affecting the structure and dynamics of temperate forests. While the previous literature has been able to identify individual negative effects from competition or browsing, no one has yet identified and quantified both the individual and the joint effects. Still, when plants face both competition and browsing, it is possible that the combined effect is not simply a sum of the individual negative effects, but perhaps a more complicated situation, where plants perform either better (in case there is also a facilitative effect from the neighboring vegetation) or worse (if the effects amplify each other) than they would if experiencing only one of the two factors. In this paper, we focus on regeneration of oak (Quercus robur L) to study these questions. We analyze a rich data set from a large long-term field experiment conducted at multiple sites in mixed temperate forests in southern Sweden over almost a decade. By the use of four separate treatments on each site – (i) neither competition, nor browsing, (ii) only competition, (iii) only browsing, and (iv) both competition and browsing – we can identify and quantify both the individual and combined effects of competition and browsing on oak growth and survival. We find that both competition and browsing individually affect growth and survival negatively. For growth, browsing has the largest effect, while competition is the larger problem from a survival point of view. When the plant experiences both competition and browsing, the combined, negative, effect is larger than either individual effect for survival, but for growth, the relationship is more complicated, and the surrounding woody vegetation offers at least some protection for the oak, reducing the negative effects from browsing.


Author(s):  
D. E. Becker

An efficient, robust, and widely-applicable technique is presented for computational synthesis of high-resolution, wide-area images of a specimen from a series of overlapping partial views. This technique can also be used to combine the results of various forms of image analysis, such as segmentation, automated cell counting, deblurring, and neuron tracing, to generate representations that are equivalent to processing the large wide-area image, rather than the individual partial views. This can be a first step towards quantitation of the higher-level tissue architecture. The computational approach overcomes mechanical limitations, such as hysterisis and backlash, of microscope stages. It also automates a procedure that is currently done manually. One application is the high-resolution visualization and/or quantitation of large batches of specimens that are much wider than the field of view of the microscope.The automated montage synthesis begins by computing a concise set of landmark points for each partial view. The type of landmarks used can vary greatly depending on the images of interest. In many cases, image analysis performed on each data set can provide useful landmarks. Even when no such “natural” landmarks are available, image processing can often provide useful landmarks.


2019 ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Н. В. Фрадкіна

The purpose and tasks of the work are to analyze the contemporary Ukrainian mass culture in terms of its value and humanistic components, as well as the importance of cultural studies and Ukrainian studies in educational disciplines for the formation of a holistic worldview of modern youth.Analysis of research and publications. Scientists repeatedly turned to the problems of the role of spirituality in the formation of society and its culture. This problem is highlighted in the publications by O. Losev, V. Lytvyn, D. Likhachev, S. Avierintsev, M. Zakovych, I. Stepanenko and E. Kostyshyn.Experts see the main negative impact of mass culture on the quality approach, which determines mass culture through the market, because mass culture, from our point of view, is everything that is sold and used in mass demand.One of the most interesting studies on this issue was the work by the representatives of Frankfurt School M. Horkheimer and T. Adorno «Dialectics of Enlightenment» (1947), devoted to a detailed analysis of mass culture. Propaganda at all socio-cultural levels in the form is similar in both totalitarian and democratic countries. It is connected, according to the authors, with the direction of European enlightenment. The tendency to unify people is a manifestation of the influence of mass culture, from cinema to pop. Mass culture is a phenomenon whose existence is associated with commerce (accumulation in any form – this is the main feature of education), in general, the fact that it exists in this form is related to the direction of the history of civilization.Modern mass culture, with its externally attractive and easily assimilated ideas and symbols, appealing to the trends of modern fashion, becomes a standard of prestigious consumption, does not require intense reflection, allows you to relax, distract, not teach, but entertains, preaches hedonism as the main spiritual value. And as a consequence, there are socio-cultural risks: an active rejection of other people, which leads to the formation of indifference; cruelty as a character trait; increase of violent and mercenary crime; increase in the number of alcohol and drug addicts; anti-patriotism; indifference to the values of the family and as a result of social orphanhood and prostitution.Conclusions, perspectives of research. Thus, we can conclude that modern Ukrainian education is predominantly formed by the values of mass culture. Namely, according to the «Dialectic» by Horkheimer and Adorno, «semi-enlightenment becomes an objective spirit» of our modern society.It is concluded that only high-quality education can create the opposite of the onset of mass culture and the destruction of spirituality in our society. It is proved that only by realizing the importance of cultivating disciplines in the educational process and the spiritual upbringing of the nation, through educational reforms, humanitarian knowledge will gradually return to student audiences.Formation of youth occurs under the influence of social environment, culture, education and self-education. The optimal combination of these factors determines both the process of socialization itself and how successful it will be. In this context, one can see the leading role of education and upbringing. It turns out that the main task of modern education is to spread its influence on the development of spiritual culture of the individual, which eventually becomes a solid foundation for the formation of the individual. Such a subject requires both philosophical and humanitarian approaches in further integrated interdisciplinary research, since the availability of such research will provide the theoretical foundation for truly modern educational and personal development.


2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 556-563
Author(s):  
Adam Burley

This is a personal and reflective piece written from a clinician's point of view on the influence that the developing awareness around the consequences of childhood adversity has had upon the discussions, thinking and practice across the areas in which they are working. It seeks to argue that the increased understanding and recognition of the potential impact of early adversity can not only enhance and deepen the understanding of an individual's difficulties, but can serve to inform how services respond in a way that takes account of this. It suggests that the research and literature on childhood adversity can offer a route map away from a model of mental health that focuses predominantly on the individual as the sole source of interest.


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