scholarly journals Profiting from overreaction in soccer betting odds

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-209
Author(s):  
Edward Wheatcroft

AbstractBetting odds are generally considered to represent accurate reflections of the underlying probabilities for the outcomes of sporting events. There are, however, known to be a number of inherent biases such as the favorite-longshot bias in which outsiders are generally priced with poorer value odds than favorites. Using data from European soccer matches, this paper demonstrates the existence of another bias in which the match odds overreact to favorable and unfavorable runs of results. A statistic is defined, called the Combined Odds Distribution (COD) statistic, which measures the performance of a team relative to expectations given their odds over previous matches. Teams that overperform expectations tend to have a high COD statistic and those that underperform tend to have a low COD statistic. Using data from twenty different leagues over twelve seasons, it is shown that teams with a low COD statistic tend to be assigned more generous odds by bookmakers. This can be exploited and a sustained and robust profit can be made. It is suggested that the bias in the odds can be explained in the context of the “hot hand fallacy”, in which gamblers overestimate variation in the ability of each team over time.

1975 ◽  
Vol 34 (03) ◽  
pp. 740-747 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. M Prentice ◽  
C. D Forbes ◽  
Sandra Morrice ◽  
A. D McLaren

SummaryBetting odds for possible carriers of haemophilia have been calculated using data derived from normal and known carrier populations. For each possible carrier the concentration of factor VIII-related antigen and factor VIII biological activity was measured and used to determine the probability of the individual being a carrier. The calculations indicated that, of the 32 possible carriers, 11 were likely to be normal (odds of more than 5:1) while 11 were likely to be haemophilia carriers (again odds of more than 5:1).


1975 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. D. Forbes ◽  
A. D. McLaren ◽  
C. R. M. Prentice

The predictive odds for possible carriers of haemophilia have been calculated using data derived from normal and known carrier populations. For each individual the concentration of factor VII-related antigen (A) and factor VIII biological activity (B) was measured. The data has been studied by linear discriminant analysis linked to a Bayesian calculation of posterior odds using the predictive distributions of both the normal and obligatory carrier populations. The proportion of possible carriers assigned to the definite carrier group or control group is dependent on which betting odds are regarded as most suitable for counselling patients. For instance, if betting odds of 5 : 1 were given it was possible to assign 22 of 32 possible carriers (69 per cent) to control or carrier groups. Of this group of 22 possible carriers, 11 were thought to be normal and 11 were thought to be haemophilia carriers.


2021 ◽  
pp. 095679762097056
Author(s):  
Morgana Lizzio-Wilson ◽  
Emma F. Thomas ◽  
Winnifred R. Louis ◽  
Brittany Wilcockson ◽  
Catherine E. Amiot ◽  
...  

Extensive research has identified factors influencing collective-action participation. However, less is known about how collective-action outcomes (i.e., success and failure) shape engagement in social movements over time. Using data collected before and after the 2017 marriage-equality debate in Australia, we conducted a latent profile analysis that indicated that success unified supporters of change ( n = 420), whereas failure created subgroups among opponents ( n = 419), reflecting four divergent responses: disengagement (resigned acceptors), moderate disengagement and continued investment (moderates), and renewed commitment to the cause using similar strategies (stay-the-course opponents) or new strategies (innovators). Resigned acceptors were least inclined to act following failure, whereas innovators were generally more likely to engage in conventional action and justify using radical action relative to the other profiles. These divergent reactions were predicted by differing baseline levels of social identification, group efficacy, and anger. Collective-action outcomes dynamically shape participation in social movements; this is an important direction for future research.


2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (7) ◽  
pp. 965-981 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmi Schooler ◽  
Leslie J Caplan ◽  
Pakuy Pierre Mounkoro ◽  
Chiaka Diakité

We examine the effects of socio-environmental change on personality in Mali in three ways, using data from a longitudinal two-wave (1994, 2004) survey conducted in rural Mali. Firstly, we compare the between-wave personality stability of Anxiety, Self-confidence, Mastery/Fatalism, and Authoritarianism with that in USA, Japan, Poland, and Ukraine. Secondly, we examine socio-economic hardship and political instability in pre-industrial Mali. Thirdly, we examine patterns of psychological reaction to political and social change during the study period. Our findings have implications for comparisons and generalizations across times and cultures about the contribution of socio-environmental conditions to over-time change in personality.


2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. 160131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Smith ◽  
Mark Dyble ◽  
James Thompson ◽  
Katie Major ◽  
Abigail E. Page ◽  
...  

Humans regularly cooperate with non-kin, which has been theorized to require reciprocity between repeatedly interacting and trusting individuals. However, the role of repeated interactions has not previously been demonstrated in explaining real-world patterns of hunter–gatherer cooperation. Here we explore cooperation among the Agta, a population of Filipino hunter–gatherers, using data from both actual resource transfers and two experimental games across multiple camps. Patterns of cooperation vary greatly between camps and depend on socio-ecological context. Stable camps (with fewer changes in membership over time) were associated with greater reciprocal sharing, indicating that an increased likelihood of future interactions facilitates reciprocity. This is the first study reporting an association between reciprocal cooperation and hunter–gatherer band stability. Under conditions of low camp stability individuals still acquire resources from others, but do so via demand sharing (taking from others), rather than based on reciprocal considerations. Hunter–gatherer cooperation may either be characterized as reciprocity or demand sharing depending on socio-ecological conditions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Bergeri ◽  
Mairead Whelan ◽  
Harriet Ware ◽  
Lorenzo Subissi ◽  
Anthony Nardone ◽  
...  

Background COVID-19 case data underestimates infection and immunity, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We meta-analyzed standardized SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies to estimate global seroprevalence. Objectives/Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, searching MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, preprints, and grey literature for SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies aligned with the WHO UNITY protocol published between 2020-01-01 and 2021-10-29. Eligible studies were extracted and critically appraised in duplicate. We meta-analyzed seroprevalence by country and month, pooling to estimate regional and global seroprevalence over time; compared seroprevalence from infection to confirmed cases to estimate under-ascertainment; meta-analyzed differences in seroprevalence between demographic subgroups; and identified national factors associated with seroprevalence using meta-regression. PROSPERO: CRD42020183634. Results We identified 396 full texts reporting 736 distinct seroprevalence studies (41% LMIC), including 355 low/moderate risk of bias studies with national/sub-national scope in further analysis. By April 2021, global SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 26.1%, 95% CI [24.6-27.6%]. Seroprevalence rose steeply in the first half of 2021 due to infection in some regions (e.g., 18.2% to 45.9% in Africa) and vaccination and infection in others (e.g., 11.3% to 57.4% in the Americas high-income countries), but remained low in others (e.g., 0.3% to 1.6% in the Western Pacific). In 2021 Q1, median seroprevalence to case ratios were 1.9:1 in HICs and 61.9:1 in LMICs. Children 0-9 years and adults 60+ were at lower risk of seropositivity than adults 20-29. In a multivariate model using data pre-vaccination, more stringent public health and social measures were associated with lower seroprevalence. Conclusions Global seroprevalence has risen considerably over time and with regional variation, however much of the global population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. True infections far exceed reported COVID-19 cases. Standardized seroprevalence studies are essential to inform COVID-19 control measures, particularly in resource-limited regions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Bruland ◽  
Sarah Mader ◽  
Céline Hadziioannou

<p>In the 1960's a peak in the seismic amplitude spectra around 26 s was discovered and detected on stations worldwide. The source was located in the Gulf of Guinea, with approximate coordinates (0,0), and was believed to be generated continuously. A source with similar spectral characteristics was discovered near the Vanuatu Islands, at nearly the antipodal location of the Gulf of Guinea source. Since it was located close to the volcanoes in Vanuatu, this source is commonly attributed to magmatic processes. The physical cause of the 26 s microseism, however, remains unclear.</p><p>We investigate the source location and evolution of the 26 s microseim using data from permanent broadband stations in Germany, France and Algeria and temporary arrays in Morocco, Cameroon and Botswana for spectral analysis and 3-C beamforming to get closer to resolving the source mechanism responsible for this enigmatic signal. We find that the signal modulates over time and is not always detectable, but occasionally it becomes so energetic it can be observed on stations worldwide. Such a burst can last for hours or days. The signal is visible on stations globally approximately 30 percent of the time. Our beamforming analysis confirms that the source is located in the Gulf of Guinea, as shown in previous studies, and that the location is temporally stable. Whenever the signal is detectable, both Love and Rayleigh waves are generated. We discover a spectral glide effect associated with the bursts, that so far has not been reported in the literature. </p><p>The spectral glides last for about two days and are observed on stations globally. Although at higher frequencies, very long period tremors and gliding tremors are also observed on volcanoes as Redoubt in Alaska and Arenal in Costa Rica, suggesting that the origin of the 26 s tremor is also volcanic. However, there is no reported volcanic activity in the area where the source appears to be located.</p><p> </p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (28_suppl) ◽  
pp. 253-253
Author(s):  
Maureen Canavan ◽  
Xiaoliang Wang ◽  
Mustafa Ascha ◽  
Rebecca A. Miksad ◽  
Timothy N Showalter ◽  
...  

253 Background: Among patients with cancer, receipt of systemic oncolytic therapy near the end-of-life (EOL) does not improve outcomes and worsens patient and caregiver experience. Accordingly, the ASCO/NQF measure, Proportion Receiving Chemotherapy in the Last 14 Days of Life, was published in 2012. Over the last decade there has been exponential growth in high cost targeted and immune therapies which may be perceived as less toxic than traditional chemotherapy. In this study, we identified rates and types of EOL systemic therapy in today’s real-world practice; these can serve as benchmarks for cancer care organizations to drive improvement efforts. Methods: Using data from the nationwide Flatiron Health electronic health record (EHR)-derived de-identified database we included patients who died during 2015 through 2019, were diagnosed after 2011, and who had documented cancer treatment. We identified the use of aggressive EOL systemic treatment (including, chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and combinations thereof) at both 30 days and 14 days prior to death. We estimated standardized EOL rates using mixed-level logistic regression models adjusting for patient and practice-level factors. Year-specific adjusted rates were estimated in annualized stratified analysis. Results: We included 57,127 patients, 38% of whom had documentation of having received any type of systemic cancer treatment within 30 days of death (SD: 5%; range: 25% - 56%), and 17% within 14 days of death (SD: 3%; range: 10% - 30%). Chemotherapy alone was the most common EOL treatment received (18% at 30 days, 8% at 14 days), followed by immunotherapy (± other treatment) (11% at 30 days, 4% at 14 days). Overall rates of EOL treatment did not change over the study period: treatment within 30 days (39% in 2015 to 37% in 2019) and within 14 days (17% in 2015 to 17% in 2019) of death. However, the rates of chemotherapy alone within 30 days of death decreased from 24% to 14%, and within 14 days, from 10% to 6% during the study period. In comparison, rates for immunotherapy with chemotherapy (0%-6% for 30 days, 0% -2% for 14 days), and immunotherapy alone or with other treatment types (4%-13% for 30 days, 1%-4% for 14 days) increased over time for both 30 and 14 days. Conclusions: End of life systemic cancer treatment rates have not substantively changed over time despite national efforts and expert guidance. While rates of traditional chemotherapy have decreased, rates of costly immunotherapy and targeted therapy have increased, which has been associated with higher total cost of care and overall healthcare utilization. Future work should examine the drivers of end-of-life care in the era of immune-oncology.


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