scholarly journals Impact of meteorological drought on hydrological drought in Toruń (central Poland) in the period of 1971–2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Bąk ◽  
Katarzyna Kubiak-Wójcicka
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Middle Part ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Vistula River ◽  
Groundwater Basin

Abstract The paper presents impact of meteorological drought on hydrological drought on the Vistula River in Toruń in the period of 1971-2015. It uses index method for the assessment of hydrological drought threat degree as a result of multi-month lasting meteorological drought. Based on the values of the SPI-24 (24-month standardized precipitation index) it was determined that meteorological drought in Toruń appeared six times and the total time of the phenomenon was 33% of the studied interval. Periods of hydrological drought on the Vistula River in Toruń have been determined based on the values of the SWI-24 (24-month standardized water level index). It has been found out that hydrological drought appeared four times and its total time was 10% longer that the meteorological drought. Based on the values of both indices (SPI-24 and SWI-24) correlation coefficient for months, seasons and years, it was found that the relation between both kind of droughts is weak (r < 0.5). That result is also confirmed in the distribution of both kinds of drought. Only in 32 months (8% of the total time) the intensity of the two simultaneously occurring drought was at least moderate. The achieved results revealed that the hydrological drought was occurring periodically, independent on meteorological drought. Hydrological drought was also influenced by the external factors (hydropower plant in Włocławek, Major Groundwater Basin - GZWP) and climate factors appearing in the upper and middle part of the river basin.

scholarly journals The effect of climate type on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 4649-4665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anouk I. Gevaert ◽  
Ted I. E. Veldkamp ◽  
Philip J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Propagation Time ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Surface Models

Abstract. Drought is a natural hazard that occurs at many temporal and spatial scales and has severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts across the globe. The impacts of drought change as drought evolves from precipitation deficits to deficits in soil moisture or streamflow. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from meteorological drought to soil moisture drought and from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. We did this by cross-correlating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) against standardized indices (SIs) of soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow from an ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by a consistent meteorological dataset. Drought propagation is strongly related to climate types, occurring at sub-seasonal timescales in tropical climates and at up to multi-annual timescales in continental and arid climates. Winter droughts are usually related to longer SPI accumulation periods than summer droughts, especially in continental and tropical savanna climates. The difference between the seasons is likely due to winter snow cover in the former and distinct wet and dry seasons in the latter. Model structure appears to play an important role in model variability, as drought propagation to soil moisture drought is slower in land surface models (LSMs) than in global hydrological models, but propagation to hydrological drought is faster in land surface models than in global hydrological models. The propagation time from SPI to hydrological drought in the models was evaluated against observed data at 127 in situ streamflow stations. On average, errors between observed and modeled drought propagation timescales are small and the model ensemble mean is preferred over the use of a single model. Nevertheless, there is ample opportunity for improvement as substantial differences in drought propagation are found at 10 % of the study sites. A better understanding and representation of drought propagation in models may help improve seasonal drought forecasting as well as constrain drought variability under future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Analysing 21st century meteorological and hydrological drought events in Slovakia

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam Fendeková ◽  
Tobias Gauster ◽  
Lívia Labudová ◽  
Dana Vrablíková ◽  
Zuzana Danáčová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Extreme Values Distribution ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Several quite severe droughts occurred in Europe in the 21st century; three of them (2003, 2012 and 2015) hit also Slovakia. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used for assessment of meteorological drought occurrence. The research was established on discharge time series representing twelve river basins in Slovakia within the period 1981–2015. Sequent Peak Algorithm method based on fixed threshold, three parametric Weibull and generalized extreme values distribution GEV, factor and multiple regression analyses were employed to evaluate occurrence and parameters of hydrological drought in 2003, 2011–2012 and 2015, and the relationship among the water balance components. Results showed that drought parameters in evaluated river basins of Slovakia differed in respective years, most of the basins suffered more by 2003 and 2012 drought than by the 2015 one. Water balance components analysis for the entire period 1931–2016 showed that because of continuously increasing air temperature and balance evapotranspiration there is a decrease of runoff in the Slovak territory.

scholarly journals Pemetaan Indek Kekeringan dan Sebaran Titik Hotspot Daerah Potensi Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan di Propinsi Riau

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yotta Autika ◽  
Aras Mulyadi ◽  
Yusni Ikhwan Siregar
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Spi Index ◽  
Maximum Duration ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Riau is one of the most vulnerable provinces to forest and land fires in Indonesia. The potency for forest and land fires is inseparable from the presence of peatlands and exacerbated by drought. The purpose of this research is to know the characteristics of meteorological drought using SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) method and its relation with forest and peatland fire as one of disaster management effort in Riau Province. The data used in this research are monthly rainfall data from meteorology station and rainfall posts of BMKG, hotspot data from NOAA satellite, map of Forest Use Agreement (TGHK), peat land map and land use map. Analysis of drought characteristics was done by calculating monthly SPI-1 then determining the maximum duration, intensity, severity and drought exposure. Determination of the severity of the drought by weighting and suspension method was based on duration and intensity while drought exposure was done by overlaying the map of the severity of the drought with the land use map. Meanwhile, to know the potential of forest and land fires began with the selection of hotspots on peatlands and forest areas every month then created a graph of the relationship of meteorological drought with the number of hotspots. Then, to see the relationship of drought distribution to the distribution of hotspots in dry season (MK) and wet season (MH) of 2015 was done by overlaying cover the drought distribution with hotspot distribution. The result shows that drought characteristic in the most of Riau province has maximum duration around 4-6 months, dry category of intensity, high category of severity with exposure area in paddy field, field, habitation, and plantation. Then, negative SPI Index (dry condition) has potential to increase the number of hotspots otherwise positive SPI index (wet condition) leads to low occurrence of hotspot. The drought distribution in the dry season (July, August, September) of 2015 triggers the number of hotspots during drought conditions, while in wet season (April, November, December) of 2015 are dominated by normal conditions, some areas are dry and wet, resulting in lower hotspots distribution compared to the dry season.

scholarly journals Evolution characteristics and relationship of meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wang ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Amgad Elmahdi ◽  
Zhangkang Shu ◽  
Yinghui Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Evolution Characteristics ◽  
Hanjiang River ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the acceleration of the water cycle will increase the risk of basin drought. In this study, to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were selected and applied for the period 1961–2018. In addition, the cross-wavelet method was used to discuss the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological droughts. The results and analysis indicated that: (1) the meteorological drought in the HRB showed a complex cyclical change trend of flood-drought-flood from 1961 to 2018. The basin drought began to intensify from 1990s and eased in 2010s. The characteristics of drought evolution in various regions are different based on scale. (2) During the past 58 years, the hydrological drought in the HRB has shown a significant trend of intensification, particularly in autumn season. Also, the hydrological droughts had occurred frequently since the 1990s, and there were also regional differences in the evolution characteristics of drought in various regions. (3) Reservoir operation reduces the frequency of extreme hydrological drought events. The effect of reducing the duration and intensity of hydrological drought events by releasing water from the reservoir is most obvious at Huangjiagang Station, which is the nearest to Danjiangkou Reservoir. (4) The hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the HRB have the strongest correlation on the yearly scale. After 1990, severe human activities and climate change are not only reduced the correlation between hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, but also reduced the lag time between them. Among them, the hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the basin lags behind the meteorological drought by 1 month, and the hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has changed from 2 months before 1990 to 1 month lagging after 1990.

scholarly journals Application of the Hidden Markov Bayesian Classifier and Propagation Concept for Probabilistic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in South Korea

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1000
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nouman Sattar ◽  
Muhammad Jehanzaib ◽  
Ji Eun Kim ◽  
Hyun-Han Kwon ◽  
Tae-Woong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Bayesian Classifier ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Drought Classes

Drought is one of the most destructive natural hazards and results in negative effects on the environment, agriculture, economics, and society. A meteorological drought originates from atmospheric components, while a hydrological drought is influenced by properties of the hydrological cycle and generally induced by a continuous meteorological drought. Several studies have attempted to explain the cross dependencies between meteorological and hydrological droughts. However, these previous studies did not consider the propagation of drought classes. Therefore, in this study, to consider the drought propagation concept and to probabilistically assess the meteorological and hydrological drought classes, characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), respectively, we employed the Markov Bayesian Classifier (MBC) model that combines the procedure of iteration of feature extraction, classification, and application for assessment of drought classes for both SPI and SRI. The classification results were compared using the observed SPI and SRI, as well as with previous findings, which demonstrated that the MBC was able to reasonably determine drought classes. The accuracy of the MBC model in predicting all the classes of meteorological drought varies from 36 to 76% and in predicting all the classes of hydrological drought varies from 33 to 70%. The advantage of the MBC-based classification is that it considers drought propagation, which is very useful for planning, monitoring, and mitigation of hydrological drought in areas having problems related to hydrological data availability.

scholarly journals Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2066
Author(s):  
Jin Hyuck Kim ◽  
Jang Hyun Sung ◽  
Eun-Sung Chung ◽  
Sang Ug Kim ◽  
Minwoo Son ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Drought Characteristics

Due to the recent appearance of shares socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, there have been many studies that compare the results between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs). This study attempted to project future drought characteristics in the Cheongmicheon watershed using SSP2-4.5 of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-coupled model (ACCESS-CM2) in addition to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 of ACCESS 1-3 of the same institute. The historical precipitation and temperature data of ACCESS-CM2 were generated better than those of ACCESS 1-3. Two meteorological drought indices, namely, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to project meteorological drought while a hydrological drought index, Standardized Streamflow Index (SDI), was used to project the hydrological drought characteristics. The metrological data of GCMs were bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and the streamflow was obtained using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and bias-corrected meteorological data. As a result, there were large differences of drought occurrences and severities between RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 for the values of SPI, SPEI, and SDI. The differences in the minimum values of drought index between near (2021–2060) and far futures (2061–2100) were very small in SSP2-4.5, while those in RCP4.5 were very large. In addition, the longest drought period from SDI was the largest because the variation in precipitation usually affects the streamflow with a lag. Therefore, it was concluded that it is important to consider both CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in establishing the drought countermeasures for the future period.

scholarly journals Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill in the semi-arid endorheic Heihe River basin in Northwestern China

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Ma ◽  
Lifeng Luo ◽  
Aizhong Ye ◽  
Qingyun Duan
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Drought Forecasting

Abstract. Endorheic and arid regions around the world are suffering from serious drought problems. In this study, a drought forecasting system based on eight state-of-the-art climate models from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and a Distributed Time-Variant Gain Hydrological Model (DTVGM) was established and assessed over the upstream and midstream of Heihe River basin (UHRB and MHRB), a typical arid endorheic basin. The 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) and 1-month Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI1) were used to capture meteorological and hydrological drought, and values below -1 indicate drought events. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated in terms of Anomaly Correlation (AC) and Brier skill score (BSS). The UHRB and MHRB showed season-dependent meteorological drought predictability and forecast skill, with higher values during winter and autumn than that during spring. For hydrological forecasts, the forecast skill in the UHRB was higher than that in MHRB. Predicting meteorological droughts more than 2 months in advance became difficult because of complex climate mechanism. However, the hydrological drought forecasts could show some skills up to 3–6 lead months due to memory of initial hydrologic conditions (ICs) during cold and dry seasons. During wet seasons, there's no skillful hydrological predictions since lead-2 month because the dominant role of meteorological forcings. During spring, the improvement of hydrological drought predictions is the most significant as more streamflow was generated by seasonal snowmelt. Besides meteorological forcings and ICs, human activities have reduced the hydrological variability and increased hydrological predictability during the wet seasons in the MHRB.

scholarly journals The effect of climate on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anouk I. Gevaert ◽  
Ted I. E. Veldkamp ◽  
Philip J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Propagation Time ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Surface Models

Abstract. Drought is a natural hazard that occurs at many temporal and spatial scales and has severe environmental and socio-economic impacts across the globe. The impacts of drought change as drought evolves from precipitation deficits to deficits in soil moisture or streamflow. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from meteorological drought to soil moisture drought, and from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. We did this by cross-correlating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) against standardized indices of soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow from an ensemble of global hydrological models forced by a consistent meteorological dataset. Drought propagation is strongly related to climate, occurring at sub-seasonal timescales in tropical climates and at up to multi-annual timescales in continental and arid climates. Winter droughts are usually related to longer SPI accumulation periods than summer droughts, especially in continental and tropical savanna climates. The difference between the seasons is likely due to winter snow cover in the former and distinct wet and dry seasons in the latter. Model structure appears to play an important role in model variability, as drought propagation to soil moisture drought is slower in land surface models than in global hydrological models, but propagation to hydrological drought is faster in land surface models than in global hydrological models. The propagation time from SPI to hydrological drought in the models was evaluated against observed data at 297 in-situ streamflow stations. On average, errors between observed and modeled drought propagation timescales are small and the model ensemble mean is preferred over the use of a single model. Nevertheless, there is ample opportunity for improvement as substantial differences in drought propagation are found at 20 % of the study sites. A better understanding and representation of drought propagation in models may help improve seasonal drought forecasting as well as constrain drought variability under future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Application of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Indices to Establish Drought Classification Maps of the Ba River Basin in Vietnam

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doan Quang Tri ◽  
Tran Tho Dat ◽  
Dinh Duc Truong
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Calibration And Validation

The objective of this study was to establish drought classification maps to simulate and calculate the lack of discharge in the Ba River basin in Vietnam. The maps were established using three meteorological drought indices (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Drought Index (J), and the Ped Index (Ped)), the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and the hydrological drought index (KDrought). The results from the calculation of the SPI, Aridity Index (AI), and Ped at three stations (An Khe, Ayunpa, and MDrak) showed that the J index was suitable for the study area. Based on the J index, an extreme drought was predicted to occur at the Ayunpa, An Khe, and MDrak stations. During the calibration process, the SWAT Calibration Uncertainties Program (SWAT-CUP) model, with automatic algorithms, was used to select the parameters to optimize the SWAT model. For the calibration and validation, the observed discharge at two hydrology stations, An Khe and Cung Son, from the periods 1981–1991 and 1992–2002, respectively, were used. The simulated discharge was found to be acceptable, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent bias (PBIAS), and R2 reaching good levels in both calibration and validation. The results from the calculation of the drought index (KDrought), and the established drought classification maps in 2016, showed that the most affected areas were the communes of the Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces. The results from the simulation and calculations were found to be consistent with the situation that occurred in practice. The application of meteorological and hydrological drought indices, as well as the hydrological model, to support impact assessments of drought classification in space and time, as well as the establishment of forecasting and warning maps, will help managers to effectively plan policy responses to drought.

scholarly journals Evaluating skill and robustness of seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale – Case Catalonia (Spain)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henny A.J. Van Lanen ◽  
Theresa C. Van Hateren ◽  
Samuel J. Sutanto
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Large Change ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Catchment Scale

&lt;p&gt;Robust sub-seasonal and seasonal drought forecasts are essential for water managers and stakeholders coping with water scarcity. Many studies have been conducted to evaluate the performance of hydrological forecasts, that is, streamflow. Nevertheless, only few studies evaluated the performance of hydrological drought forecasts, e.g. forecast of deficit volumes in river flow, or duration of deficits. The objective of this study, therefore, was to analyse the skill and robustness of meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale (the Ter and Llobregat rivers in Catalonia, Spain), rather than at a continental or global scale. Meteorological droughts were forecasted using downscaled (5&amp;#160;km) probabilistic seasonal weather reforecasts (ECMWF-SEAS4). These downscaled data were also used to drive the hydrological model (EFAS-LISFLOOD) to produce hydrological drought forecasts, which were derived from time series of simulated streamflow data. This resulted in seasonal hydro-meteorological reforecasts with a lead time up to 7 months, for the time period 2002-2010. These monthly reforecasts were compared to two datasets: 1) droughts derived from a proxy for observed data, including gridded precipitation data and streamflow simulated by the LISFLOOD model; and 2) droughts derived from in situ observed precipitation and streamflow. Results show that the skill of hydrological drought forecasts is higher than the climatology, up to 3-4 months lead time. On the contrary, meteorological drought forecasts, analysed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), do not show added value for short accumulation times (SPI1 and SPI3). The robustness analysis show that using either a less extreme or a more extreme threshold leads to a large change in forecasting skill, which points at a rather low robustness of the hydrological drought forecasts. Because the skill found in hydrological drought forecasts is higher than the meteorological ones in this case study, the use of hydrological drought forecasts in Catalonia is highly recommended to improve drought risk management. The results of this study have already been implemented by the Catalonian Water Agency to forecast reservoir volumes of two big reservoirs located in the Ter and Llobregat catchments, which supply the majority of water to the Barcelona metropolitan area.&lt;/p&gt;

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