scholarly journals Distribution of Military Power and Prospects of Post-Conflict Peace

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 385-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margit Bussmann ◽  
Florian Ranft
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Empirical Tests

AbstractThis study focuses on the distribution of military capabilities in the aftermath of civil wars and how it affects the recurrence of further fighting. Using survival analysis the empirical tests cover 48 post-conflict episodes in 33 countries and includes novel measurements on military capabilities. We find that peace is more likely to endure following military victories and peace agreements and when conflict parties are able to credibly signal their intentions to commit laying down arms.

The challenges of post conflict reintegration in Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. S401-S402
Author(s):  
S. Okpaku
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Cognitive Impairments ◽  
Traditional Healing ◽  
Culturally Appropriate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Healing Rituals ◽  
Conflict Situations ◽  
Competing Interest

IntroductionIn the past 50 years, the continent of Africa has witnessed major conflicts ranging from civil wars and liberation wars to chaos from failed States. Increasingly in these political upheavals, kidnapping and abductions of women and young persons have become more prominent.Aims/objectives/methodsIn this paper the consequences of political upheavals will be discussed. For the community there are economic, political and social disruptions. For the individuals there are family disruptions and improvements. For the abducted and kidnapped individuals there are physical, psychological and cognitive impairments, as well as consequences of sexual injuries.FindingsThere is controversy as to prevention, reduction, and management of young victims of war and conflicts. Some workers have suggested that:–the imposition of peace agreements by foreign powers may not be strictly relevant to the parties engaged in the conflicts;–culturally appropriate rituals have efficiency in the readjustment of boy soldiers and abducted girls. Nevertheless the guidelines suggested in international disagreements provide a basis for there adjustment of young war conflict victims.Conclusion–Traditional healing rituals have a place in the healing and reintegration in person's abduction in post conflict situations.– Community approaches are superior to individual approaches.Disclosure of interestThe author has not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

Oil Wealth, Post-conflict Elections, and Postwar Peace Failure

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 1021-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Keels
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Oil Wealth ◽  
New Research

New research has emerged that suggests there is a troubling relationship between elections and civil wars; primarily, elections increase the risk of civil war recurrence. I investigate this relationship further by examining the economic factors associated with the connection between postwar elections and peace failure. Specifically, how does the presence of oil wealth impact the risk posed by postwar elections. Drawing on previous findings in the democratization literature, I suggest the immobility of oil wealth dramatically increases the stakes associated with postwar elections. As postwar elites use irregular electioneering to consolidate their control of oil revenue, it increases the incentives for postwar opposition to use violence as a means to achieve their objectives. Using post-civil war data from 1945 to 2005, I demonstrate that postwar elections that occur in oil-rich economies dramatically decrease the durability of postwar peace. Once controlling for petro elections, though, I demonstrate that subsequent postwar elections actually increase the durability of postwar peace.

Beyond Keeping Peace: United Nations Effectiveness in the Midst of Fighting

2014 ◽  
Vol 108 (4) ◽  
pp. 737-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
LISA HULTMAN ◽  
JACOB KATHMAN ◽  
MEGAN SHANNON
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
United Nations Peacekeeping ◽  
Peacekeeping Missions ◽  
The Cold War

While United Nations peacekeeping missions were created to keep peace and perform post-conflict activities, since the end of the Cold War peacekeepers are more often deployed to active conflicts. Yet, we know little about their ability to manage ongoing violence. This article provides the first broad empirical examination of UN peacekeeping effectiveness in reducing battlefield violence in civil wars. We analyze how the number of UN peacekeeping personnel deployed influences the amount of battlefield deaths in all civil wars in Africa from 1992 to 2011. The analyses show that increasing numbers of armed military troops are associated with reduced battlefield deaths, while police and observers are not. Considering that the UN is often criticized for ineffectiveness, these results have important implications: if appropriately composed, UN peacekeeping missions reduce violent conflict.

Incredible Commitments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anjali Kaushlesh Dayal
Keyword(s):  
United Nations ◽  
Archival Research ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Negotiation Processes ◽  
United Nations Peacekeeping

Why do warring parties turn to United Nations peacekeeping and peacemaking even when they think it will fail? Dayal asks why UN peacekeeping survived its early catastrophes in Somalia, Rwanda, and the Balkans, and how this survival should make us reconsider how peacekeeping works. She makes two key arguments: first, she argues the UN's central role in peacemaking and peacekeeping worldwide means UN interventions have structural consequences – what the UN does in one conflict can shift the strategies, outcomes, and options available to negotiating parties in other conflicts. Second, drawing on interviews, archival research, and process-traced peace negotiations in Rwanda and Guatemala, Dayal argues warring parties turn to the UN even when they have little faith in peacekeepers' ability to uphold peace agreements – and even little actual interest in peace – because its involvement in negotiation processes provides vital, unique tactical, symbolic, and post-conflict reconstruction benefits only the UN can offer.

scholarly journals Peace Governance and Multiculturalism: What role for Peace Education in the Balkans

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lidija Georgieva
Keyword(s):  
Peace Education ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Violent Conflicts

This article will focus on theoretical and practical dilemmas related to the concept of peace governance, and within this context on the possible transformative role of peace education trough facilitation of contact between communities in conflict. The basic assumption is that violent conflicts in the Balkans have been resolved trough negotiated settlements and peace agreements. Yet, education strategy including peace education and its impact on post-conflict peacebuilding and reconciliation are underestimated. Peace governance is recognized as a dynamic but challenging process often based on institutional and policy arrangements aimed to at least settle conflict dynamics or in some cases even to provide more sustainable peace after signing of negotiated settlement in multicultural societies. We will argue that education in general is one of the critical issues of peace governance arrangements that could facilitate peacebuilding and create a contact platform between communities. The first question addressed in this article is to what extend peace agreements refer to education as an issue and the second one relate to the question if education is included in peace agreement to what extent it contributes for contact between different conflicting communities. Although it is widely accepted that contacts between former adversaries contributes for multicultural dialogue it is less known or explained if and in what way peace agreements provisions on education facilitate contact and transformation of conflicting relations.

Oil Wealth, Winning Coalitions, and Duration of Civil Wars

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 1077-1105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krista Wiegand ◽  
Eric Keels
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Winning Coalition ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Oil Wealth ◽  
New Research ◽  
Coalition Size

New research has begun to underscore the complicated relationship between democratic institutions and the duration of civil wars. Specifically, greater constraints placed on executives often lead to considerably longer civil wars as leaders are limited in how they bargain with dissidents. This presents a puzzle as democracies are often seen as credible negotiators in international disputes. This article suggests that the size of the government’s winning coalition represents a double-edged sword. Larger winning coalitions allow governments to bargain more credibly but also place constraints on what governments can offer since peace agreements may alienate coalition members. Fortunately, future access to postwar oil wealth provides the feasibility for the governments to compensate hard-liners who may lose out on any settlement, making them more likely to allow concessions to rebels. This combined credibility of large winning coalitions and the feasibility provided by oil wealth allows for peace agreements, therefore shortening the duration of civil wars. We test these propositions by examining the conditional relationship between oil wealth and coalition size on the duration of all civil wars between 1950 and 2009.

Demobilization Challenges After Armed Conflict

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margit Bussmann
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Commitment Problem ◽  
Alternative Means ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
Security Guarantees ◽  
Commitment Problems

Demobilization of ex-combatants is a major obstacle in the transition to a stable postconflict society. The combatants must be convinced to abandon the armed confrontation and hand over their weapons in light of security concerns and a lack of alternative means of income. The challenges to overcoming the commitment problem differ in terms of numbers of combatants who must be demobilized for conflicts that end in a decisive victory and conflicts that reach a military stalemate. Peace agreements can offer several solutions for overcoming the parties’ commitment problems, but often the implementation of the provisions is incomplete. Third parties can offer to monitor an agreement and provide security guarantees. International actors increasingly assist with demobilization and reintegration programs for former combatants and help to overcome security-related concerns and economic challenges. Another solution offered is military power-sharing arrangements and the integration of rebel fighters into the national military. These measures are intended to reduce the pool for potential recruitment for existing or new rebel groups. If ex-combatants are left without means of income to support themselves and their families, the risk is higher that they will remobilize and conflict will recur. Reintegration in the civilian labor market, however, is often difficult in the weak economies of war-affected countries.

Bargaining Models of War and the Stability of Peace in Post-Conflict Societies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margit Bussmann
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Theoretical Work ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Security Guarantees ◽  
Commitment Problems

A major challenge for countries that emerge from civil war is the stabilization of the post-conflict order in a way that fighting does not break out again. Recent empirical and theoretical work on the resolution of civil wars and on the duration of peace strongly rely on the bargaining framework of war emphasizing information asymmetries and commitment problems as main reasons for why in some states civil wars recur repeatedly, whereas in other societies a conflict ends and a transition to a peaceful society is successful. The length of peace spells depends partly on information about the distribution of power that became available during the conflict, captured by the duration and intensity of the fighting as well as the type of conflict ending. Information problems are more relevant at earlier stages and with regard to the initiation of negotiations. In finding bargaining deals and securing their implementation, the conflict parties have to overcome commitment problems. The literature has investigated in more detail third-party security guarantees and power-sharing arrangements as mechanisms to get conflict parties to credibly commit to and adhere to a negotiated agreement. Recently, empirical research moved beyond the conclusion of peace agreements to the study of their implementation. Particular challenges for a peaceful order are the demobilization of ex-combatants, which is aggravated by time-inconsistency problems, the timing of elections, and the redistribution of economic resources. Finally, solutions become more difficult in multiparty conflicts and if the armed groups are fragmented.

scholarly journals Selling Out or Standing Firm? Explaining the Design of Civil War Peace Agreements

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-342
Author(s):  
Deniz Cil ◽  
Alyssa K Prorok
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Political Power ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Military Power ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Settlement Agreements

Abstract When do rebel leaders “sell out” their constituents in the terms of peace by signing agreements that benefit group elites over the rebel constituency, and when do they instead “stand firm,” pushing for settlement terms that benefit the public they claim to represent? This article examines variation in the design of civil war settlement agreements. It argues that constituents, fighters, and rebel elites have different preferences over the terms of peace, and that rebel leaders will push for settlements that reflect the preferences of whichever audience they are most reliant on and accountable to. In particular, leaders of groups that are more civilian-reliant for their military and political power are more likely to sign agreements that favor broad benefits for civilian constituents, while leaders who do not depend on civilian support for their political and military power will sign agreements with fewer public benefits. We test this argument using original data on the design of all final peace agreements reached between 1989 and 2009, and several proxies for the group's level of reliance on civilian supporters. Using a variety of statistical tests and accounting for nonrandom selection into peace agreements, we find strong support for our hypothesis.

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