Bargaining Models of War and the Stability of Peace in Post-Conflict Societies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margit Bussmann
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Theoretical Work ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Security Guarantees ◽  
Commitment Problems

A major challenge for countries that emerge from civil war is the stabilization of the post-conflict order in a way that fighting does not break out again. Recent empirical and theoretical work on the resolution of civil wars and on the duration of peace strongly rely on the bargaining framework of war emphasizing information asymmetries and commitment problems as main reasons for why in some states civil wars recur repeatedly, whereas in other societies a conflict ends and a transition to a peaceful society is successful. The length of peace spells depends partly on information about the distribution of power that became available during the conflict, captured by the duration and intensity of the fighting as well as the type of conflict ending. Information problems are more relevant at earlier stages and with regard to the initiation of negotiations. In finding bargaining deals and securing their implementation, the conflict parties have to overcome commitment problems. The literature has investigated in more detail third-party security guarantees and power-sharing arrangements as mechanisms to get conflict parties to credibly commit to and adhere to a negotiated agreement. Recently, empirical research moved beyond the conclusion of peace agreements to the study of their implementation. Particular challenges for a peaceful order are the demobilization of ex-combatants, which is aggravated by time-inconsistency problems, the timing of elections, and the redistribution of economic resources. Finally, solutions become more difficult in multiparty conflicts and if the armed groups are fragmented.

Demobilization Challenges After Armed Conflict

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margit Bussmann
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Commitment Problem ◽  
Alternative Means ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
Security Guarantees ◽  
Commitment Problems

Demobilization of ex-combatants is a major obstacle in the transition to a stable postconflict society. The combatants must be convinced to abandon the armed confrontation and hand over their weapons in light of security concerns and a lack of alternative means of income. The challenges to overcoming the commitment problem differ in terms of numbers of combatants who must be demobilized for conflicts that end in a decisive victory and conflicts that reach a military stalemate. Peace agreements can offer several solutions for overcoming the parties’ commitment problems, but often the implementation of the provisions is incomplete. Third parties can offer to monitor an agreement and provide security guarantees. International actors increasingly assist with demobilization and reintegration programs for former combatants and help to overcome security-related concerns and economic challenges. Another solution offered is military power-sharing arrangements and the integration of rebel fighters into the national military. These measures are intended to reduce the pool for potential recruitment for existing or new rebel groups. If ex-combatants are left without means of income to support themselves and their families, the risk is higher that they will remobilize and conflict will recur. Reintegration in the civilian labor market, however, is often difficult in the weak economies of war-affected countries.

The Credible Commitment Problem in the Third-Party Mediation of the Mindanao Peace Process, 1975–2014

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-207
Author(s):  
John Lee Candelaria
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
Credible Commitment ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Commitment Problem ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Monitoring And Enforcement ◽  
Commitment Problems

Abstract Negotiated settlements of civil wars are challenging since incompatibilities take a long time to resolve. Many scholars have approached this puzzle by identifying information asymmetry and commitment problems as critical deterrents to resolution. Similarly, this article argues that third-party mediation could improve or worsen the parties’ credible commitment problems, as illustrated in the Mindanao peace process mediation that spanned almost four decades. Following a contingency framework in analyzing third-party mediation, this article analyzes existing reports, statements, and peace process agreements using a process tracing methodology. The article argues that the success of a peace process could be attributed to how mediation resolves the parties’ credible commitment problems, which are evident in three aspects of the peace process: getting the parties to negotiate, the use of mediator leverage, and the promise of third-party monitoring and enforcement.

Termination and Recurrence of Civil War: Which Outcomes Lead to Durable Peace after Civil War?

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
HIROTAKA OHMURA
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
War Termination ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
Military Victory ◽  
Peace Duration ◽  
Durable Peace

AbstractThis article attempts to answer why some countries experience the recurrence of civil war and others do not. One of the most significant differences between civil war onset and its recurrence is that the latter has once experienced termination of civil war, while the former has not. To find the cause of recurrence, this article examines how different war termination types influence the duration of post-civil war peace. Duration analysis of the civil wars between 1944 and 1999 shows that military victory, supported by peacekeeping operations or power-sharing arrangements, leads to the most durable peace in a post-civil war country. Contrary to the accepted wisdom, negotiated peace settlement, even when supported by peacekeeping operations or power-sharing arrangements, is not positively related to post-conflict peace.

scholarly journals Sri Lanka: Physical Reconstruction and Economic Development as Conflict Prevention Factors

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (69) ◽  
pp. 55-76
Author(s):  
Boženko Đevoić
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Conflict Prevention ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Postconflict Reconstruction ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Government

ABSTRACT This article gives an overview of the 26 year long ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka and examines physical reconstruction and economic development as measures of conflict prevention and postconflict reconstruction. During the years of conflict, the Sri Lankan government performed some conflict prevention measures, but most of them caused counter effects, such as the attempt to provide “demilitarization”, which actually increased militarization on both sides, and “political power sharing” that was never honestly executed. Efforts in post-conflict physical reconstruction and economic development, especially after 2009, demonstrate their positive capacity as well as their conflict sensitivity. Although the Sri Lankan government initially had to be forced by international donors to include conflict sensitivity in its projects, more recently this has changed. The government now practices more conflict sensitivity in its planning and execution of physical reconstruction and economic development projects without external pressure.

Oil Wealth, Post-conflict Elections, and Postwar Peace Failure

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 1021-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Keels
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Oil Wealth ◽  
New Research

New research has emerged that suggests there is a troubling relationship between elections and civil wars; primarily, elections increase the risk of civil war recurrence. I investigate this relationship further by examining the economic factors associated with the connection between postwar elections and peace failure. Specifically, how does the presence of oil wealth impact the risk posed by postwar elections. Drawing on previous findings in the democratization literature, I suggest the immobility of oil wealth dramatically increases the stakes associated with postwar elections. As postwar elites use irregular electioneering to consolidate their control of oil revenue, it increases the incentives for postwar opposition to use violence as a means to achieve their objectives. Using post-civil war data from 1945 to 2005, I demonstrate that postwar elections that occur in oil-rich economies dramatically decrease the durability of postwar peace. Once controlling for petro elections, though, I demonstrate that subsequent postwar elections actually increase the durability of postwar peace.

Beyond Keeping Peace: United Nations Effectiveness in the Midst of Fighting

2014 ◽  
Vol 108 (4) ◽  
pp. 737-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
LISA HULTMAN ◽  
JACOB KATHMAN ◽  
MEGAN SHANNON
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
United Nations Peacekeeping ◽  
Peacekeeping Missions ◽  
The Cold War

While United Nations peacekeeping missions were created to keep peace and perform post-conflict activities, since the end of the Cold War peacekeepers are more often deployed to active conflicts. Yet, we know little about their ability to manage ongoing violence. This article provides the first broad empirical examination of UN peacekeeping effectiveness in reducing battlefield violence in civil wars. We analyze how the number of UN peacekeeping personnel deployed influences the amount of battlefield deaths in all civil wars in Africa from 1992 to 2011. The analyses show that increasing numbers of armed military troops are associated with reduced battlefield deaths, while police and observers are not. Considering that the UN is often criticized for ineffectiveness, these results have important implications: if appropriately composed, UN peacekeeping missions reduce violent conflict.

From Protectionism to Regionalism: Multinational Firms and Trade-Related Investment Measures

2004 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry A. Chase
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Multinational Firms ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Theoretical Work ◽  
Sunk Costs ◽  
Asset Specificity ◽  
The Political ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
Commitment Problems

Trade-related investment measures (TRIMs) have been a key issue in regional and multilateral trade negotiations, but they have received little attention in theoretical work to date. This article analyzes the political economy of TRIMs to illuminate why regional arrangements have been a popular framework for eliminating them. The main argument is that multinational firms often demand safeguards when TRIMs are being liberalized, particularly if they have large sunk costs due to asset specificity. In general, regional arrangements are better equipped than multilateral rules to incorporate the safeguards these firms demand: regionalism requires governments to make binding commitments, and it creates opportunities to discriminate against outsiders. A case study of lobbying by U.S. companies with FDI in Canada from the early twentieth century to the negotiation of the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement illustrates these points. The article concludes that regional arrangements are likely to remain more active, and more successful, than multilateral discussions in managing the commitment problems inherent in liberalizing TRIMs.

Comparison analysis on the bilateral efforts of farmers and the third-party organization under multiple contract modes

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 818-834 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lanying Sun ◽  
Xiaoyan Li
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Purchase Price ◽  
Party Organization ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Agricultural Supply

Purpose The purpose of this paper is under the analysis framework of the system theory, analyzing the optimal contract mode of agricultural supply chain to guarantee the stability of agricultural supply chain and the equilibrium of agricultural product market, to analyze the effect of farmers’ risk attitude on the selection of contract modes and to find the way to encourage farmers’ productive effort and to avoid farmers’ hitchhiking behavior, to guarantee the stability of agricultural supply chain. Design/methodology/approach Under the guidance of the system theory, using the Stackelberg model and the nonlinear programming theory, this paper comparatively analyzes farmers’ effort (productive effort and sales effort), farmers’ income and the stability of agricultural supply system of four types of contract modes between farmers, third-party organizations and market. Findings First, in the agricultural market, market-type contract cannot maximize farmers’ income. The main reason is that farmers do not have enough ability to avoid market risk and to bargain. Second, for farmers of risk seeking, choosing a market-type contract and secondary-income contract can increase their income. Third, under the fixed-purchase price contract, the hitchhiking behavior would happen. Fourth, when farmers’ productive efforts are the same, farmers’ income under the secondary-income contract is higher than under the fixed-purchase price contract. Because under the secondary-income contract, farmers have the opportunity to obtain the secondary distribution of benefits, farmers’ hitchhiking behavior could be avoided. Originality/value Analyzing the contract modes between farmers and the third-party organization in the agricultural market could reduce the influence of price fluctuation, avoid the uncertainty of the relationship between the supply and demand, stimulate the productive effort of farmers and provide theoretical guidance for establishing efficient and stable agricultural supply system.

Divergent Systems of Agonistic Behaviour in Lemurid Primates

Behaviour ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 134 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 225-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Pereira ◽  
Peter M. Kappeler
Keyword(s):  
Social Systems ◽  
Study Groups ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Agonistic Interaction ◽  
Agonistic Behaviour ◽  
Adult Males ◽  
Dominance Relations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Ringtailed Lemurs

AbstractTwo semifree-ranging groups of ringtailed lemurs (Lemur catta) and two co-ranging groups of redfronted lemurs (Eulemur fulvus rufus) were studied across a two-year period to characterise and contrast the adult agonistic behaviour these primates exhibit within groups. Temporal analyses of behavioural data distinguished agonistic from non-agonistic behaviour and aggressive from submissive behaviour. The ringtailed lemurs employed a diverse repertoire of behavioural elements to communicate agonistic intent. More than 50% of these elements were signals and nearly 50% of signals were submissive. The agonistic repertoire of the redfronted lemurs, by contrast, was relatively unelaborated: less than 40% of agonistic behaviour in this species comprised signals and less than 20% of signals were submissive. These structural differences underlay marked species differences in agonistic interaction and relationship. All pairs of ringtailed lemurs maintained dominance relations resembling those seen in many anthropoid primates: subordinates consistently signalled submissively to dominant partners, often in the absence of aggression. Dominance relations among members of each sex were seasonally unstable and not always transitive (hierarchical) during periods of stability, however. Redfronted lemurs, by contrast, did not maintain dominance relations, failing to respond agonistically to most aggression received (52% of interactions) and responding with aggression on many other occasions (12%). Even applying relaxed criteria, few adult redfronted dyads (14%) showed consistent asymmetries in agonistic relations and several never exhibited any asymmetry. Lacking dominance, E. f rufus relied heavily on alternate behavioural mechanisms to moderate social conflict as frequent and intense as that seen in study groups of ringtailed lemurs. These included a great inclination not to respond agonistically to aggression, a distinctive behavioural proposal to limit or terminate dyadic conflict (Look away), post-conflict reconciliation, and relatively frequent third-party aggression. The existence of such divergent systems of agonistic behaviour in partially sympatric, closely related and generally similar prosimian primates offers important opportunities for comparative study of the ecology, development, and evolution of mammalian social systems. Future research may reveal ecophysiological factors that promote the use of dominance behaviour among like-sexed ringtailed lemurs and show how the relative absence of dominance relates to other major elements of redfronted lemur biology, including 'special relationships' of variable duration between adult males and females.

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