scholarly journals Secular stagnation and Google Trends – can we find out what people think?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-313
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Schmidt ◽  
Mateusz Gajtkowski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
American Society ◽  
Clear Statement

The main aim of the study was to verify the thesis that the US economy is measured against the spectre of secular stagnation by determining the mood of American society using Google Trends. While performing the analysis, the authors used data on the American market for the years 2004-2018. The study comprised 42 entries, including 19 entries from the category “social” and 23 entries from the category “financial”. The analyses do not allow for a clear statement that the US economy is facing the spectre of secular stagnation, but they allow us to formulate the observation that the mood of the society is moderately pessimistic, which undoubtedly translates into economic activity and may be the cause of the persisting economic stagnation.

Prospects for the US economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Banking Committee ◽  
Second World

Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2018. Significance In 2018, US GDP should continue growing at the 2017 pace of 2.0-2.5%, and 0.2-0.3% higher if Congress can pass a tax cut. Incoming Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell yesterday gave his first testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, vowing continuity and stability in monetary policy. US economic activity has been expanding for 100 months, the third-longest expansion since 1854 and almost twice the post-Second World War average of 58 months.

Fed policy move will mean lower rates for even longer

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Significance The Fed reduced interest rates to 0-0.25% and almost doubled the size of its balance sheet to offset some of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US economy but clear signs of economic activity rebounding are now prompting the Fed to look further out. Impacts The Fed will reassure markets that there will be no rate increases under virtually any circumstances in the next few years. Eventually the Fed will consider reducing the size of its balance sheet; this will require adroit management to avoid worrying investors. There appears to be little support at the Fed for negative rates; adopting yield-curve control remains possible if the recovery disappoints.

The World Economy: Fiscal expansions in North America

2009 ◽  
Vol 207 ◽  
pp. 18-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
Iana Liadze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Definition Of

According to the formal dating of the business cycle by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the US economy reached a peak of economic activity in December 2007, which marks the beginning of the US recession. While some economists tend to refer to a technical recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP, the NBER uses a broader definition of ‘a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators'. The committee pays particular attention to payroll employment, which has declined by 1.9 per cent since the peak reached in December 2007, allowing the unemployment rate to reach 7.2 per cent in December 2008, the highest rate since 1992. We expect a sharper decline in US employment this year, and see the unemployment rate reaching 10½ per cent in 2010, the highest level since a brief peak in 1982.

Section II. Prospects for North America and Japan

2002 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 15-24
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Economic activity has rebounded strongly in the US economy since the relatively mild recession experienced last year, helped by the accommodative stance of monetary and fiscal policies, and unusually buoyant productivity growth. GDP rose by 1½ per cent in the first quarter, the fastest quarterly rate of growth since the end of 1999. Although recent monthly data have been somewhat mixed, on balance they suggest that economic activity continued to strengthen in the second quarter but at a slower pace than earlier in the year.

scholarly journals Sector size, technical change and stability in the USA (1957-2006): a Schumpeterian approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 956-974 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Konstantakis ◽  
Panayotis G. Michaelides ◽  
Theofanis Papageorgiou
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Data Framework ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate two famous postulates of the Schumpeterian doctrine and its implications for the US economy. Design/methodology/approach – Analytically, the authors investigate whether sector size matters for sectoral: technological change and stability, as expressed through the relevant quantitative measures and variables. To this end, the authors test a number of relevant models that express the various forms of this relationship. More precisely, the authors use panel data for the 14 main sectors of economic activity in the USA over the period 1957-2006, just before the first signs of the US and global recession made their appearance. Findings – The results seem to be in line with the Schumpeterian postulate that market size matters for technological change and economic stability, for the US economy (1957-2006). Clearly, further research would be of great interest. Originality/value – This work contributes to the literature in the following ways: first, it provides an extensive review of the literature on the subject and adopts two relevant methodological approaches. Second, based on these quantitative approaches, the paper offers a complete investigation of two famous postulates of the Schumpeterian theory for the US economy, and it is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to do so by sector of economic activity, in a panel data framework. Third, the paper uses a wide data set (1957-2006) to examine the US economy up until the first signs of the US and global economic recession made their appearance.

The Generalized Low-Quality Syndrome

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 557-611
Author(s):  
Milan Zafirovski
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Structural Property ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Sociological Perspective ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
American Society

Abstract The paper identifies and analyzes what it denotes the generalized low-quality syndrome of the US economy compared with other advanced economies in light of its recent and continuing quality problems. It first posits and demonstrates the existence of the generalized low-quality syndrome in the US economy presenting certain aggregate and specific indicators. Then it explores the effective or possible causes and explanations of the generalized low-quality syndrome, such as the exceptional structural-institutional properties and outcomes of the US economy. In general, the paper finds and infers that the overarching factor and predictor of the generalized low-quality syndrome of products, especially manufactured durable goods, is the structural property of the US economy and in extension the quality of life in American society in comparative sociological perspective by being compared to other Western societies.

Impact of non-performing loans on US product and labor markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amit Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Labor Markets ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Specific Product ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Using time-series data on the US banking industry for the period 1984Q1-2016Q2, the present study aims to examine the impact of both aggregate and sector-specific non-performing loans (NPLs) on aggregate and sectoral product and labor markets. Design/methodology/approach Using both single equation ordinary least squares and instrumental variables regressions, the study compares the sensitivity of sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and employment growth to changes in both aggregate and sectoral NPLs. Moreover, the paper uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to dynamically trace the impact and duration of NPLs on different types of real economic activity.. Findings Rise in total NPLs reduces US real GDP growth that is most accentuated for construction sector GDP. Likewise, total NPLs significantly lowers both total and non-farm employment growth, financial activities and construction sector employment growth, with the latter showing most sensitivity. Moreover, NPLs in commercial and industrial sector, consumer lending, non-farm non-residential, construction and land development, single- and multi-family residential sectors reduce corresponding sectoral employment growth. The VARs largely confirm these findings with shocks to total NPLs having the most immediate and persistent inimical impact on construction-sector GDP growth. Practical implications The deleterious impact of different categories of NPLs on both aggregate as well as sector-specific product and labor markets illustrate that a distressed banking sector is a serious obstacle to the real sector. The findings underscore the need not only to clean up NPLs for the sake of banks financial soundness but also to reduce their pernicious effects on the health of the US economy. For bank regulatory authorities in the USA, it indicates constant monitoring of banks in their jurisdiction and identifying early warning signals to mitigate the potential real sector losses due to rising NPLs. Originality value The extant literature on NPLs has mainly focused on explaining its underlying determinants but not on its real sector consequences. The present paper examines the impact of NPLs on different facets of real economic activity, an issue that has been rarely studied and especially not on the US economy. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of existing literature focuses on aggregate NPLs. The relationships derived in such studies, while useful, can mask important differences between different types of NPLs and real economic activity. The present paper explores the impact of disaggregated NPLs in the US banking industry on corresponding sector-specific product and labor markets, again an issue that has not been studied previously.

scholarly journals Common Ownership and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 322-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Azar ◽  
Xavier Vives
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Mild Condition ◽  
Market Concentration ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
Labor Share ◽  
Sector Model ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Common Ownership ◽  
The Us ◽  
Plausible Values

We extend the model in Azar and Vives (2018) to allow for investment and show that higher effective market concentration (augmented by common ownership) leads to lower equilibrium wages, real interest rates, lower output, lower labor share, and lower capital share as well (under a mild condition). We calibrate a multisector sector model of the US economy and find that the rise in common ownership may account for the broad evolution of labor and capital shares in the period 1985-2015 while measured increases in concentration cannot (under plausible values for elasticity parameters).

scholarly journals Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (11) ◽  
pp. 3352-3384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde ◽  
Pablo Guerrón-Quintana ◽  
Keith Kuester ◽  
Juan Rubio-Ramírez
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Previous Step

We study how unexpected changes in uncertainty about fiscal policy affect economic activity. First, we estimate tax and spending processes for the United States with time-varying volatility to uncover evidence of time-varying volatility. Second, we estimate a VAR for the US economy using the time-varying volatility found in the previous step. Third, we feed the tax and spending processes into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. Both in the VAR and in the model, we find that unexpected changes in fiscal volatility shocks can have a sizable adverse effect on economic activity. An endogenous increase in markups is a key mechanism. (JEL E12, E23, E32, E52, E62)

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