scholarly journals Economic and mathematical modeling of long-term development of national industry in the conditions of digitalization with the use of a production function

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (96) ◽  
pp. 5-20
Author(s):  
Oleksiy Okhten ◽  
◽  
Аlla Dasiv ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Production Function ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
National Industry ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Over Time

The article substantiates the expediency of modeling the development of national industry taking into account how the main interconnected key sectors of Ukrainian economy (not only processing and extractive industries, but also agriculture) are developing, as well as taking into account the factors that cause changes in this development over time. Based on previous researches, multiplicative production function has been chosen as the base for building the model, which was modified by taking into account the peculiarities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the specifics of individual industries in Ukraine. The economic-mathematical model of long-term development of specified branches of economy of Ukraine in the conditions of digitalization was proposed, in which the value added in the branch is the dependent variable, and the classic components of production functions (labor and the capital) are the independent variables, as well as the new factor – digitalization, and factors, specific to individual industries (world food price index for agriculture and world raw material price index for the extractive industry). A specific feature of the model is also the use of correction factors that reflect the change in the return of factors over time and increase the accuracy of calculations. In addition, separate models have been developed to calculate each of the main factors, based on the dynamics of investments, taking into account the recursive influence of value added, propensity to invest, the condition of the world economy and other specific factors. The calculation of value added in agriculture, extractive and processing industries of Ukraine in 2010-2019 was performed using the model. The adequacy of the model was validated based on the results of its parameterization, which showed sufficient accuracy for the implementation on practice, as the average absolute error of approximation ranges from 2.94% to 4.14% depending on the industry, with abnormal 2014-2015 excluded from the calculations. The value of GDP in the country as a whole was calculated on the basis of the results of value added calculations by key industries. Taking into account the fact that the proposed set of models does not include all industries, a regression model was used to calculate GDP, to which value added for the identified key industries was used as factor. It is established that the proposed model is quite accurate and can be used to calculate the GDP of Ukraine on the basis of value added calculations in agriculture, extractive and processing industries. Given the prospects of practical use of the model for management decisions, the elasticity of the main driving factor (investments) of the development of individual industries was assessed for the main variables, which, in particular, showed that the exchange rate of hryvnia to the US dollar has a negative impact on investments, and the most pronounced – on investments in fixed assets of the processing industry. This questions the widespread idea that the devaluation of the hryvnia stimulates domestic production.

scholarly journals Modeling the production function with the account for the change of factors’ output over time on the example of manufacturing industry in Germany

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (93) ◽  
pp. 79-91
Author(s):  
Oleksiy Okhten ◽  
◽  
Alla Dasiv ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Production Function ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Weight Coefficients ◽  
Over Time

The article analyzes production functions, investigates the features of the Cobb-Douglas function in its multiple variations. On the basis of the analysis carried out, as well as the practical needs of modeling the production systems, the necessity of modeling the production function with the account for the change in the output of production factors over time, is substantiated. As well as with the account for the factor of the modern industrial revolution, characterized by the digitalization of manufacturing. An approach to the development of a function is proposed, which takes into account the change in the output of production factors over time in the context of digitalization. The corresponding production function was modeled based on the example of the manufacturing industry over 2000-2019 in Germany, which is a country that is among the first to introduce modern technologies, including digital ones. The results of modeling the value added using the production function with and without the account for the change in the weight coefficients of the factors over time are presented. It was found that adding the correction factors that define the change in weight coefficients for the factors of the production function over time increased the accuracy of the calculations. Also, a decrease in the resulting (after taking into account the coefficient change over time) exponent coefficient was revealed in the digitalization factor and its increase in the factor of fixed assets involved in the production process (the cost of machinery and equipment) – the output on fixed assets increases annually, and the output of the digitalization factor decreases by about the same extent. It was found that since the relative output of digitalization decreases over time, if there is a need to achieve growth in output through digitalization, it has to be carried out at a growing pace, that is, investments should increase over time. In addition, the earlier investments are introduced, the greater the effect they will give. When modeling the sectors of the Ukrainian economy, it’s advisable to use correction coefficients calculated based on the German data, rather than calculate them based on past periods on the basis of Ukrainian data. From the point of view of practical calculations, this is justified not only by the belated repetition of the technological development processes of developed countries by developing ones (that is, Ukrainian enterprises are introducing the same technologies, but with a delay of 5-10 years or more), but also by the greater relevance of German statistics to the needs of modeling.

scholarly journals The Hungarian Wood-Based Panel Industry and its Impact on the Environment

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-172
Author(s):  
Gábor Laborczy ◽  
András Winkler
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Forest Products Industry ◽  
Round Wood

Abstract It is well known that worldwide deforestation has a negative impact on the global environment. Forests play an important role in producing oxygen as well as retaining gases that create the greenhouse effect. Forests primarily absorb carbon dioxide, the major air pollutant released by the industrial activities. Energy production is the major source of environmental contamination. In addition to reducing CO2 emissions, another issue this industrial sector must tackle is to decrease the use of fossil fuels by substituting them with renewable, environmentally friendly energy sources. One of the answers to these challenges is the utilization of biomass as energy sources. However, biomass-based fuels include short bolts, split round-wood, pulpwood, bark and by-products of sawmilling, which are the raw materials for the wood-based panel industry as well.Wood utilization of the forest products industry has a major impact on the delayed release of carbon dioxide stored in the wood. All over the world, just as in Hungary, the wood-based panel industry mainly uses low quality wood resources and turns them into value added products. The elongation of the life cycle of low quality wood materials decreases CO2 emissions, thus significantly contributing to environmental protection. Furthermore, it is assumed that raw material demand of the wood-based panel industry could be satisfied by focusing on sustainable forest management and well-planned reforestation. Additionally, special energy-plantations may provide extra wood resources, while waste and other non-usable parts of trees contribute to the effective and economic operation of biomass utilizing power-plants. This paper summarizes the current situation of the Hungarian wood-based panel industry and discusses the effects of the panel manufacturing processes on the environment. Also, it outlines the possible future of this important segment of the forest products industry.

Optimizing the consolidated budget of the development Program for a diversified industrial complex

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Oleg Braginsky
Keyword(s):  
Development Program ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Chemical Complex ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

In a situation of economic downturn, complicated by COVID-19 pandemic, which has covered many countries in the world, including Russia, it is necessary to choose ways to ensure more or less sustainable economic growth. The condition in the Russian chemical complex is analyzed. The choice of the chemical complex as one of the priority ways of the Russian economic development has been substantiated. A conditional long-term development Program for the Russian chemical complex is worked out. This Program takes into account the shortcomings of fragmented government measures for the development of chemical and petrochemical industries. It is argued that the implementation of the Program will allow increasing the domestic supply for high-value-added hydrocarbon products, generally contributing to the reduction of the raw material share of Russian exports. The authors' earlier research to optimize structure of the development program for a large industrial complex in conditions of limited resources is developed. In particular, an approach to the choice of the optimal structure of the development program`s budget, consisting of such sources of financing as assignments from the national budget, private capital, long-term credits, as well as reinvested profit from investment projects participating in the Program is proposed. The results of economic and mathematical modeling and computer experimentation for optimizing structure of this Program`s consolidated budget, which make it possible to significantly improve its target indicators, as well as to involve socially significant low-profit investment projects of small and medium-sized businesses, are presented.

Omission of Data in Wrigley’s “Reconsidering the Industrial Revolution”

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-299
Author(s):  
Manish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Agricultural Change ◽  
England And Wales

In “Reconsidering the Industrial Revolution: England and Wales,” Wrigley omits vital information from the section “Urban Growth and Agricultural Change.” Arguing that by 1800, English agriculture was able to provide not only food for the rising population but also raw material for the industries, he cites wool and leather as the two largest industries in terms of value added in 1801 and leaves out building and cotton entirely. Therein lies the problem.

Intellectual Property Rights on Traditional Knowledge and their Significance in Sustainable Societal Development

2017 ◽  
pp. 157-185
Author(s):  
P. Pushpangadan ◽  
T. P. Ijinu
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Life Support ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Benefit Sharing ◽  
Access And Benefit Sharing ◽  
Special Value ◽  
The Developed Countries

Rich biodiversity and equally rich cultural heritages are the two invaluable assets of most of the Third World Counties (TWC). Biogenetic resources are the primary source of valuable genes, chemicals, drugs, pharmaceuticals, natural dyes, gums, resins, enzymes or proteins of great health, nutritional and economic importance. Biodiversity regulates and maintains overall health of the life support systems on earth and is the source from which human race derives food, fodder, fuel, fibre, shelter, medicine and raw material for meeting his other multifarious needs and industrial goods required for the ever changing and ever increasing needs and aspirations. TWC members are still at the receiving end as far as the development of special value added products and herbal technologies are concerned. The developed countries, on the other hand, are emerging as super powers with their biotechnological strength. IPRs emerged strongly during the industrial revolution and it has been an important driving force behind rapid industrial growth and prosperity of the Western countries during the last 3 centuries. Nowadays Access and Benefit Sharing issues have become a central theme for subsequent detailed discussions and decision making under CBD, TRIPS and the WIPO. It is therefore increasingly urgent for the CBD to make ABS work as was intended. The entry into force of the Nagoya Protocol represents a step in this direction. In India, we can be proud of having the distinction of the first country in experimenting a benefit-sharing model that implemented in Letter and Spirit Article 8(j) of CBD.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DAMPAK HARGA EMAS DUNIA, HARGA MINYAK DUNIA, KURS, INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN (IHK), DAN BI RATE TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (02) ◽  
pp. 7-20
Author(s):  
Muhammad Umar Azyka Alfuadi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Principle ◽  
Islamic Economic

The paper attempts to analyze the impacts of gold price, oil price, exchange rate, consumer price index, and BI rate to Jakarta Islamic Index using VAR- VECM analysis. The result shows that in long term all variables have a significant impact to JII. Gold price has negative impact to JII 4,1% and stable after 12 months, oil price has positive impact 1% and stable after 21 months, exchange rate has positive impact 3,8% and stable after 17 months, consumer price index has positive impact 0,5% and stable after 21 months, and BI rate has negative impact 6,2% and stable after 15 months. BI rate also gives the biggest impact‟s contribution into JII. This result is very contradictory with Islamic economic principle “No-Riba Oriented”.

scholarly journals Formulating a Long Term Strategy for Sustainable Palm Oil Biodiesel Development in Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beny A. Purwanto ◽  
Erliza Hambali ◽  
Yandra Arkeman ◽  
Hendri Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
High Price ◽  
The Government ◽  
Palm Oil Biodiesel

<p class="abstract-1"><strong></strong>Indonesia, the largest producer of palm oil, has been developed palm oil biodiesel as renewable energy in the last decade. Indonesia biodiesel development policies aim to increase domestic value added of palm oil product and reduce the reliance on fossil fuel. Indonesia has embarked on a comprehensive palm oil biodiesel program since 2006 and targeted the 20% biodiesel blend (B20) in 2016. This article explores the strategy formulation by accommodate the stakeholder perspective in the problems and the solutions. This research analyzes the information from in depth interview with biodiesel stakeholders (government, industry and researcher) in Indonesia by combine Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis with a Multi Actor Analysis approach. The results show the problems of biodiesel development are mainly on the high production cost due to high price of raw material, production technology and distribution infrastructure. The government policy, technology development and raw material supply are the driving forces of the biodiesel development in Indonesia. In the long term strategy, government of Indonesia should secure the biodiesel raw material, develop an environmental friendly technology in biodiesel processing, and accommodate any improvement idea from other stakeholders.</p>

Chronology and Projectile Point Neck-Width: An Idaho Example

1998 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
William B. Fawcett
Keyword(s):  
Physical Characteristics ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Projectile Point ◽  
Projectile Points ◽  
Neck Width ◽  
The Past ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Over Time

Projectile point neck-widths are used to estimate the age of specimens from surface assemblages in southern Idaho. Like other attribute-based dating techniques, it is easier to replicate and can be accomplished with more fragmentary artifacts than more typological-based approaches. Estimating the age in years allows us to examine the past in a more continuous way that avoids problems arising from periodization and discrepancies between archaeologists in their definition of sequences. The availability and physical characteristics of the raw material from which the projectile points were manufactured, along with constraints in scheduling other subsistence resources, may have contributed to the long-term empirical trend toward narrower neck-widths over time. This trend transcends the change in projectile technologies from the earlier atlatl thrown darts to later bow propelled arrows. Both technologies coexisted for at least a millennium in southern Idaho.

scholarly journals Effects of Long-Term Use of a Cochlear Implant on the Electrically Evoked Compound Action Potential

2010 ◽  
Vol 21 (01) ◽  
pp. 005-015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn J. Brown ◽  
Paul J. Abbas ◽  
Christine P. Etler ◽  
Sara O'Brien ◽  
Jacob J. Oleson
Keyword(s):  
Cochlear Implant ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Observation Interval ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Average Increase ◽  
Growth Functions ◽  
Initial Activation ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Compound Action

Background: Since the early 1990s, it has been possible to measure electrically evoked compound action potentials (ECAPs) from Nucleus cochlear implant users. Recording the ECAP does not require active participation by the subject, and the recordings are not adversely affected by attention or sleep, making this response an ideal tool for monitoring long-term changes. Previous research from our laboratory (Hughes et al, 2001) has shown that ECAP thresholds and slope of the ECAP growth functions are relatively stable over time. However, this conclusion was based on results obtained from a fairly limited number of study participants, each of whom used the Nucleus CI24M cochlear implant and were followed for less than two years. Purpose: To evaluate the effect of long-term use of a cochlear implant on ECAP thresholds and slope of the ECAP input/output function for both pediatric and adult cochlear implant recipients. Research Design: A longitudinal study that describes how ECAP thresholds and growth functions change over a period of 96 mo following initial activation. Changes over time in ECAP threshold and slope of the ECAP growth function were analyzed, and effects of the subject's age, type of CI (cochlear implant), and stimulating electrode are included in the analysis. Study Sample: 134 Nucleus CI users participated in this study. All were profoundly deaf. This subject pool included 84 individuals (40 adults and 44 children) who used the Nucleus CI24M cochlear implant and 50 individuals (21 adults and 29 children) who used the Nucleus CI24R cochlear implant. Data Collection and Analysis: Electrodes 5, 10, 15, and 20 were stimulated, and ECAP growth functions were measured for each subject at regular intervals following the initial activation of the device. Results: Small increases in mean ECAP thresholds were observed for both pediatric and adult CI users between an “early” visit that occurred within 3–6 mo following hookup and a “late” visit that occurred 4.8–6 yr later. For adults, the average increase in ECAP threshold was 3.94 CL (clinical programming units for Nucleus CIs). For children, the average increase was 4.16 CL. These differences, while small, were statistically significant. Slope of the ECAP growth functions measured over the same time interval did not change significantly. On average, pediatric CI users had ECAP thresholds that were 4–5 CL units higher than the adult CI recipients. The most striking outcome from this study, however, was the finding that when compared with postlingually deafened adults, pediatric CI users had ECAP growth functions that were substantially steeper. The differences between the results obtained from children and those obtained from adults were statistically significant and largely independent of device type or stimulating electrode. Conclusion: Results from this study show ECAP thresholds and growth functions to change very little over a 5–6 yr observation interval suggesting that long-term use of a CI is not likely to have a significant negative impact on the response of the peripheral auditory system. Pediatric Cl users were shown to have, on average, higher ECAP thresholds and steeper ECAP growth functions than postlingually deafened adult CI users. This finding suggests potential differences between the two patient populations either in terms of the current fields within the cochlea or the effective distance between the stimulating electrode and the stimulable neural tissue.

scholarly journals The negative consequences of failing to communicate uncertainties during a pandemic: The case of COVID-19 vaccines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleonore Batteux ◽  
Avri Bilovich ◽  
Samuel G. B. Johnson ◽  
David Tuckett
Keyword(s):  
Medical Literature ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Online Study ◽  
Conflicting Information ◽  
Health Choices ◽  
The Face ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

AbstractUncertainties pervade our health choices, particularly in the context of a novel pandemic. Despite this, rather little is known about when and how to effectively communicate these uncertainties. The focus in the medical literature so far has been on how patients respond to mentions of uncertainty relating to diagnosis or treatment, showing that these can have detrimental effects on trust and satisfaction. On the other hand, how patients are affected by these communications over time, particularly in the face of conflicting information, has received little attention. This is particularly important in the context a novel pandemic where uncertainty is rife and information changes over time. To fill this gap, we conducted an online study with UK participants on hypothetical communications relating to COVID-19 vaccines. Participants first read a vaccine announcement, which either communicated with certainty or uncertainty, and then received information which conflicted with the announcement. Those who were exposed to the certain announcement reported a greater loss of trust and vaccination intention than those who were exposed to the uncertain announcement. This shows that communicating with unwarranted certainty can backfire in the long-term, whereas communicating uncertainties can protect people from the negative impact of exposure to conflicting information.

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