scholarly journals Foresight in Public Administration: Methods and Perspectives of Implementation in Ukraine

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 56-70
Author(s):  
S. A. Kvitka
Keyword(s):  
Public Administration ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Social Innovations ◽  
The Future ◽  
Scientific Technical ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Social Prediction ◽  
Administration Methods

The article deals with the main methods of foresight and the possibility of their application in Ukraine. The author tries to systematize prediction methods in the context of foresight. Examples of practical application of foresight methodology and individual technologies of social prediction are given.The author draws attention to the fact that in the field of public administration decisions must be made on the basis of knowledge of long-term trends and opportunities of technology and society. However, very often this knowledge is based only on the study of well-known tendencies. This leads to the fact that sooner or later, factors that are not taken into account because of their novelty and non-traditionality, become key. If they are not included in the timetable in time, then all long-term projects may be doomed to failure.Particular attention is needed to new factors and innovations, in conditions when the state is working on changing the ways of development of the country. In this situation, it is extremely important to focus on scientific, technical and social innovations that can point to new approaches to addressing traditional issues. Also, knowledge of the forecasts about the future may be of interest not only for the whole society, but also for an individual, when choosing a profession, work or ideas about ways to improve their material well-being.However, the main problem is that usually all these forecasts and vision of the future are formed under the influence of a particular group of experts, which offers the result of their research and analysis as a given. The implementation of Forsyth gives a wide range of stakeholders the opportunity to participate themselves in developing new approaches to decisions that shape the future of a country, region, city or family.

Legitimacy

2020 ◽  
pp. 87-105
Author(s):  
George E. Mitchell ◽  
Hans Peter Schmitz ◽  
Tosca Bruno-van Vijfeijken
Keyword(s):  
Stakeholder Expectations ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Governance Transparency ◽  
Over Time

Chapter 5 explores how the foundations for TNGO legitimacy have changed over time, creating imperatives for TNGOs to invest in new capabilities and adopt new practices. In the past, TNGOs derived legitimacy from their espoused principles, representational claims, elite expertise, demonstrated financial stewardship, commitment to charity, and patterns of conformity. More recently, TNGOs themselves have helped to bring about a shift toward new bases for legitimacy that focus on effectiveness, strategy, leadership, governance, transparency, and responsiveness. However, transitioning to the legitimacy practices of the future is complicated by the persistence of an antiquated architecture that still demands that TNGO conform to legacy expectations. Nevertheless, new approaches to enhancing legitimacy provide a wide range of opportunities that invite organizations to proactively align their aspirations with emerging stakeholder expectations.

Knowledge, meaning, and the world's great challenges

2004 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
David F. Ford
Keyword(s):  
Future Generations ◽  
Teaching And Research ◽  
Cambridge University ◽  
The Core ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Value Ethics ◽  
The University ◽  
Critical Questioning

The future of Cambridge University is discussed in the context of the current British and global situation of universities, the main focus being on what the core concerns of a major university should be at this time. After raising issues related to core intellectual values (truth-seeking, rationality in argument, balanced judgement, integrity, linguistic precision and critical questioning) and the sustaining of a long-term social and intellectual ecology, four main challenges are identified: uniting teaching and research fruitfully; interrelating fields of knowledge appropriately across a wide range of disciplines; contributing to society in ways that are responsible towards the long-term flourishing of our world; and sustaining and reinventing collegiality so that the university can be a place where intensive, disciplined conversations within and across generations can flourish. The latter leads into questions of polity, governance and management. Finally, the inseparability of teaching, research and knowledge from questions of meaning, value, ethics, collegiality and transgenerational responsibility leads to proposing ‘wisdom’ as an integrating concept. The relevant sources of wisdom available are both religious and secular, and in a world that is complexly both religious and secular we need universities that can be places where both are done justice. Given the seriousness and long-term nature of the conflicts associated with religious and secular forces in our world, it is especially desirable that universities in their education of future generations contribute to the healing of such divisions.

Are We Investing Enough

1954 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 142-168
Author(s):  
A. K. Cairncross
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Life Assurance ◽  
The Future ◽  
Interesting Discussion ◽  
Long Term Trends

Mr. President and gentlemen, I should like to express my pleasure at being back in the Faculty Hall, where I was privileged to listen to your interesting discussion last year on “The Growth of Pension Rights”. I am glad to find that the number of occasions on which economists and actuaries are not only on speaking terms but able to take counsel of one another is increasing, for I am sure that there are many problems, of which the future of pensions is only one, that can only be satisfactorily resolved through our joint efforts and deliberations. This conviction rests partly on my experience as a member of the Phillips Committee, which was heavily dependent both on the actuaries who served on it and on the members of the profession who, in one way or another, helped it along; but it is a conviction that is just as forcibly brought home to me when I look across the Atlantic to the inquiry that has been in progress since 1950 into the long-term trends in savings and investment in the United States—an inquiry carried out by economists but sponsored and largely financed by the Life Assurance Association of America.

scholarly journals Long Term Trends and the Future Gastric Cancer Mortality in Korea: 1983~2013

2006 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunhee Choi ◽  
Jin Gwack ◽  
Yeonju Kim ◽  
Jisuk Bae ◽  
Jae-Kwan Jun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Trends

Questions That Will Not Go Away: Some Remarks on Long-Term Trends in Architecture and their Impact on Architectural Education

2006 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-19
Author(s):  
N. John Habraken
Keyword(s):  
Architectural Education ◽  
Philosophical Question ◽  
The Past ◽  
Self Image ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Way

I want to raise a more philosophical question. What fundamental images and ambitions have guided us in the past and may guide us in the future? I want to particularly call attention to the way we explain ourselves to ourselves and to those we work with. This question may not seem practical but, ultimately, our self-image determines the way we design: our buildings reflect how we see ourselves. To let you know right from the beginning what I am aiming at, my talk can be summarized as follows: we come from a tradition of monument builders, but today we are almost entirely immersed in design for everyday environments. Where we come from is very different from what we do now. The way we see ourselves is a product of the past and is becoming increasingly counter productive.

scholarly journals Treatment of Parkinson’s disease with agents other than Levodopa and Dopamine Agonists: controversies and new approaches

1984 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 210-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony E. Lang
Keyword(s):  
Parkinson’S Disease ◽  
Parkinson's Disease ◽  
Dopamine Agonists ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Many ◽  
Treatment Alternatives

ABSTRACTParkinson’s disease is associated with a variety of neurotransmitter disturbances which may be further altered by its treatment with dopamine agonists. Based on this information a wide range of pharmacological approaches have been used in search of newer treatment alternatives and in hopes of reducing complications of long-term levodopa use. This paper reviews the various therapies which have had some success in the management of Parkinson’s disease, other than levodopa and dopamine agonists. Special emphasis is placed on the many unresolved questions and controversies that exist in this area of neuropharmacology.

scholarly journals Use of Markov Processes in Predicting Dairy Farm Size Distribution Changes

1979 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-72
Author(s):  
John W. Wysong ◽  
Mahmood Y. Seyala
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Farm ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Farm Production ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Average Size

During the past several decades, a number of research publications have used Markov chain processes to predict changes in number of farm firms, the average size of farms and labor resource productivity in farm production (Conneman, Harris and Wilson, Judge and Swanson, Kottke, Seyala, Willett and Saupe, Wysong and Seyala). The Markov method assumes that the pattern of change exhibited in the past will continue into the future. This method provides information on historical changes by frequency distribution categories as well as for the whole cohort, and allows for projection of these changes into the future. Previous studies have used mainly short-run periods of up to 5 years as the primary data base. This study has considered the use of longer-run base periods of 10 to 20 years combined with periodic updating of sample data in projecting long-term trends in numbers and sizes of dairy farms and revising such projections through time.

scholarly journals An integrated three-layered foresight framework

foresight ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 250-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelis van Dorsser ◽  
Poonam Taneja
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Transitions ◽  
Meta Level ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Changing World

Purpose The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights. Findings The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends. Research limitations/implications The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework. Practical implications The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments. Social implications The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers. Originality/value The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

scholarly journals Subversive Future Seeks Like-Minded Model: On the Mismatch between Visions of Food Sovereignty Futures and Quantified Scenarios of Global Food Futures

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-67
Author(s):  
Yashar Saghai
Keyword(s):  
Food Systems ◽  
Food System ◽  
Food Sovereignty ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Many ◽  
Computer Simulation Models ◽  
Global Food

AbstractWill we, by 2050, be able to feed a rapidly growing population with healthy and sustainably grown food in a world threatened by systemic environmental crises? There are too many uncertainties for us to predict the long-term evolution of the global agri-food system, but we can explore a wide range of futures to inform policymaking and public debate on the future of food. This is typically done by creating scenarios (story lines that vividly describe what different futures could look like) and quantifying them with computer simulation models to get numerical estimates of how different aspects of the global agri-food system might evolve under different hypotheses. Among the many scenarios produced over the last twenty years, one would expect to see the future advocated by the food sovereignty movement, which claims to represent roughly two hundred million self-described “peasants” (small farmers) worldwide. This movement defends a vision of the future based on relocalized, sustainable, and just agri-food systems, self-governed through direct and participatory democratic processes. Yet, food sovereignty is conspicuously absent from quantified scenarios of global food futures. As part of the roundtable, “Ethics and the Future of the Global Food System,” this essay identifies seven obstacles that undermine the creation of food sovereignty scenarios by examining two attempts at crafting such scenarios.

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