scholarly journals Electoral Reinforcement and the Dynamics of Partisanship Strength

2002 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Andrew J. LoTempio
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
National Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

The partisanship strength of individuals is investigated as dependent upon the cumulative effect of their electoral decisions. Using data from the 1956-1960 and 1972-1976 American National Election Studies (NES), voters who reinforce their party identification through loyal presidential vote choices over their life-cycle were found to experience gains in partisanship strength to a larger degree than those who vote for different parties or who do not vote. Additionally, short-term forces such as defecting from one’s party identification in a single election or casting a split-ticket vote hinder life-cycle gains in partisanship. The totality of the evidence shows that the dynamics of partisanship may be better understood if the absence or presence of electoral reinforcement is accounted for across several presidential elections and across the entire ballot in a single election.

Macropartisanship: An Empirical Reassessment

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Abramson ◽  
Charles W. Ostrom
Keyword(s):  
Survey Research ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Research Center ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Surveys ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The U.S

To evaluate the comparability of the Gallup and Michigan Survey Research Center measures for studying levels of partisanship among the U.S. electorate we compare the overtime distribution of partisanship and the correlates of partisanship using the results of Gallup surveys, the National Election Studies, and the General Social Surveys. Compared with the Gallup results, both the other two surveys reveal less short-term variation and also less total variation. Compared with the Gallup results, the National Election Studies partisanship results are less related to short-term electoral outcomes and do not appear to be strongly driven by short-term economic and political evaluations. Our analyses suggest that scholars should be cautious about using Gallup results to revise conclusions based upon analyses that employ the Michigan Survey Research Center party identification measure.

Issues and the Dynamics of Party Identification: A Methodological Critique

1993 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 151-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Schickler ◽  
Donald Green
Keyword(s):  
Party Identification ◽  
Information Model ◽  
National Election ◽  
Full Information ◽  
Causal Influence ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Using data from the 1956–60 and 1972–76 National Election Studies (NES), we replicate the issues/party identification (PID) models set forth in Franklin (1992) and Franklin and Jackson (1983). Mild constraints on the signs of the parameters in a full-information model reduce to insignificance the apparent causal influence of issue proximities on partisanship. Furthermore, alternative specifications of the issues/PID relationship yield no evidence that citizens update their partisanship based on their ideological distance from the parties.

A gun gap in voter choice

The Gun Gap ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 50-79
Author(s):  
Mark R. Joslyn
Keyword(s):  
General Social Survey ◽  
National Election ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Political Consequence ◽  
Empirical Regularities ◽  
Voter Choice ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Chapter 2 presents a framework to examine the vote choices of gun owners. Using data from the General Social Survey and American National Election Studies, two important empirical regularities emerge. First, compared to those who do not own a guns, people who do own guns reliably vote Republican. In addition, the divide between the vote choices of gun owners and nonowners is growing. Since 2004, the “gun gap” has nearly doubled. Second, the more guns an individual owns, the more likely he or she is to vote Republican. In this respect, purchasing a gun or guns is an act of some political consequence.

HILLARY CLINTON AND THE WOMEN WHO SUPPORTED HER

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evelyn M. Simien ◽  
Sarah Cote Hampson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
National Election ◽  
General Election ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
The Real ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

AbstractUsing data from the 2008 American National Election Studies (ANES) time series, and the 2008 ANES panel wave, this study examines whether the intragroup emotions Hillary Clinton elicits—gender affinity and pride—are predictive of political engagement for the group she represents: women voters. We focus on voters who report having participated in the primaries and the range of potential voters who proselytize during the primary season and express an intention to vote in the general election. Contrary to the conclusion one might reasonably draw—that is, women rather than men would be more likely to support Clinton—the real question is:whichwomen?

An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-545
Author(s):  
Anne M. Cizmar ◽  
John McTague
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Abstract This paper examines the role of authoritarianism in the 2018 US congressional elections. In particular, we assess whether the issues that have historically been central to the authoritarian divide in the American electorate were salient in the campaigns of several important Senate races. We demonstrate that authoritarian attitudes played a consistent, significant role on presidential vote choice, party identification, and numerous policy areas in the 2016 presidential election using data from the American National Election Studies. Using case studies of six Senate races in the 2018 midterm elections, we find that authoritarianism was more muted than in 2016, and that the role of authoritarianism varied considerably depending upon the race. States with stronger Trump support in 2016 featured authoritarianism more heavily than states with less Trump support in 2016, but authoritarianism overall was not as prominent in 2018 as in 2016. Overall, Senate candidates relied on traditional campaign messages related to candidate qualifications, personal attacks, the economy, and other messages less central to authoritarianism.

Canada Votes: A Quarter Century of Canadian National Election Studies

1992 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Gidengil
Keyword(s):  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Social Categories ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Sociological Approach ◽  
The Social ◽  
Sociological Approaches ◽  
Election Studies

AbstractThis review essay examines the contribution of the Canadian National Election Studies to understanding vote choice in Canada. Analyses using both the sociological approach and the social-psychological approach are discussed. The essay starts with a review of the debates about the role of class, region and religion in Canadian voting and then goes on to discuss the applicability of the concept of party identification to Canada. An evaluation of both recursive and non-recursive models of vote choice follows. The review calls for social psychological approaches to take the social context of political choice more seriously and points to the need for sociological approaches to conceptualize social categories as live social forces.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Incumbency Across Institutions: A Look at the House, Senate, and Governorships

2005 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 287-303
Author(s):  
Brad Lockerbie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Election Studies

Using the American National Election Studies of 1990, 1994, and 1998, we can see that there is an incumbency advantage for governors, senators, and members of the House of Representatives. There is, however, some variability to the magnitude of the incumbency advantage. Moreover, it appears to follow a rather sensible pattern. It appears to be strongest for members of the House and weakest for Governors. When looking at House elections, we can see that incumbency is more powerful than is party identification. When we look at senatorial and gubernatorial elections, the items appear to be more evenly matched. When we look at evaluations of the national parties performance and expectations of performance, the picture becomes much more muddy. Gubernatorial candidates consistently avoid being held accountable for their national parties past economic performance. Candidates for the House and Senate are largely able to avoid responsibility for the past economic performance of their national parties. Economic expectations, however, are modestly more related to vote choice.

American Religious Traditions, Orthodoxy, and Commitment in Public Opinion toward Torture

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-59
Author(s):  
H. Whitt Kilburn ◽  
Brian J. Fogarty
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Religious Commitment ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
National Election ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
Evangelical Protestants ◽  
Election Studies

AbstractThe conventional wisdom on evangelical American Protestant support for the use of torture on suspected terrorists is incorrect. With data from the 2008 American National Election Studies survey, we specify the interactive influence of religious traditions on attitudes toward torture by religious commitment and belief orthodoxy. Only at low orthodoxy, and low to average commitment, are Catholics, mainline, and black Protestants more likely to support torture than the unaffiliated; the effect for evangelical Protestants is null. Greater commitment moves most traditions and the unaffiliated toward increased opposition to torture. Stronger orthodoxy, however, leads to support for torture only for the unaffiliated. The findings persist given controls for demographic characteristics, party identification, left-right self-placement, and authoritarian values.

The Municipal Voter: Voting and Nonvoting in City Elections

1971 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 1135-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard D. Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
National Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Socioeconomic Variables ◽  
Data Support ◽  
General Proposition ◽  
Election Studies

The few case studies of participation in local elections display distinct patterns, but the measurements lack comparability with each other or with national election voting studies. By application of the methodology, variables, and categories of the presidential election studies to a Toledo city election, the composition of the electorate is compared with that in presidential elections and some sharp contrasts which appear to have significant implications are observed. Some data calculated from Merriam and Gosnell's classic Non-Voting reveal some developments since 1923. From two prominent characteristics of municipal elections, nonpartisan form and low turnout, a few hypotheses about participation in city elections are deduced and examined. The data support the general proposition that most of the psychological, demographic, and socioeconomic variables display comparable amplitudes in city and presidential elections, but their significance is much greater in city elections, because the low voting level makes their impact proportionately greater.

Rights and Tolerance Support in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1992–2016

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 424-445
Author(s):  
Clem Brooks ◽  
Kyle Dodson
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
White Identity ◽  
National Election ◽  
Large Influence ◽  
Racial Resentment ◽  
Voter Choice ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
First Time ◽  
New Evidence

Do attitudes toward issues such as abortion, LGBTQ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer) rights, and tolerance of diversity matter to U.S. voters and elections? Scholarship on rights and tolerance support has failed to take into account the potentially confounding influence of racial resentment as a factor behind voter choice. This is a serious limitation that we seek to address with American National Election Studies data for presidential elections from 1992 through 2016. We bring together for the first time rights and tolerance support and racial resentment, alongside further consideration of anti-immigrant sentiments and white identity. Racial resentment and anti-immigrant sentiments shape the behavior of voters, but there is new evidence for the large influence of rights and tolerance attitudes, including with respect to the 2016 presidential election. The results suggest a growing dependence of Democratic candidates on high levels of rights and tolerance support. We discuss implications for theory and research on voter choice.

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