An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-545
Author(s):  
Anne M. Cizmar ◽  
John McTague
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Abstract This paper examines the role of authoritarianism in the 2018 US congressional elections. In particular, we assess whether the issues that have historically been central to the authoritarian divide in the American electorate were salient in the campaigns of several important Senate races. We demonstrate that authoritarian attitudes played a consistent, significant role on presidential vote choice, party identification, and numerous policy areas in the 2016 presidential election using data from the American National Election Studies. Using case studies of six Senate races in the 2018 midterm elections, we find that authoritarianism was more muted than in 2016, and that the role of authoritarianism varied considerably depending upon the race. States with stronger Trump support in 2016 featured authoritarianism more heavily than states with less Trump support in 2016, but authoritarianism overall was not as prominent in 2018 as in 2016. Overall, Senate candidates relied on traditional campaign messages related to candidate qualifications, personal attacks, the economy, and other messages less central to authoritarianism.

Moral Foundations, System Justification, and Support for Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election

The Forum ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron C. Weinschenk ◽  
Christopher T. Dawes
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political System ◽  
System Justification ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Political ◽  
Moral Foundations ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Voter Decision Making

Abstract We examine the role of moral foundations and system justification in explaining support for Donald Trump in the 2016 general election using data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey. A number of important findings emerge. First, we find that there are important partisan and ideological differences when it comes to moral foundations and system justification. Second, we find that moral foundations predict support for Trump above and beyond traditional determinants of vote choice such as ideology, partisanship, religiosity, and demographic characteristics. Third, we find that a measure of political system justification is not related to vote choice in our sample. This casts doubt on the idea that support for Trump was mostly about protesting the political system. This paper adds to the growing body of research showing that psychological concepts and theories are important in understanding voter decision-making in the 2016 presidential election and in elections more generally.

scholarly journals Between knowing and feeling: emotions and the vote in the 2017 Chilean presidential election

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 452-474
Author(s):  
Carolina Segovia ◽  
Ricardo Gamboa
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Political Knowledge ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Past ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Relevant Factors

How do citizens decide who to vote for in an election? Traditional answers focus on the role of political knowledge, party identification, and evaluations of the past performance of governments as explanatory variables. In this study we evaluate an alternative argument: the role of emotions. Using data from a survey carried out following the Chilean general elections of December 2017, this article investigates the association of emotions with the vote for Sebastián Piñera, and how emotions interact with other relevant factors that correlate with the vote. We conclude that in Chile, together with party identification and the evaluation of past governments, the emotions aroused by candidates are strongly associated with the voting decision.

The Role of Party Identification in Spatial Models of Voting Choice

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 641-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Lachat
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Model ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Choice Models ◽  
Explanatory Factors ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Voting Choice ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

Party identification and issue preferences are central explanatory factors in many voting choice models. Their effects on party preferences are usually understood to be additive. That is, issue preferences’ impact on party utilities is assumed to be the same among both party identifiers and nonidentifiers. This article suggests an alternative model in which party identification moderates the impact of issues on the vote. The impact of issue preferences on party utilities should be weaker among voters who identify with a party. This hypothesis is tested using data from four recent Dutch election studies. The results show that identifying with a party substantially weakens the issue preference effect on party evaluations, particularly for the party with which a voter identifies.

Attitudes toward Mormons and Voter Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Hawley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Voter Behavior ◽  
Latter Day Saints ◽  
Active Member ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Church

AbstractPrior to the 2012 presidential election, some commentators speculated that Mitt Romney's status as a devout and active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints would undermine his presidential aspirations. Using the 2012 American National Election Survey, this study examines the relationship between attitudes toward Mormons and voter behavior in the United States in that election year. It finds that attitudes toward Mormons had a statistically-significant effect on turnout — though these effects differed according to party identification. It additionally finds that these attitudes influenced vote choice. In both cases, the substantive effects were small, indicating that anti-Mormon feelings did play a role in the 2012 presidential election, but they did not determine the final outcome.

Religion and Voter Choice Homogeneity in the Nigerian Presidential Elections of the Fourth Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cletus Famous Nwankwo
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Fourth Republic ◽  
Voter Choice ◽  
Specific Manifestation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This article examines the influence of religion on voter choice homogeneity (VCH) in the Nigerian presidential elections of the fourth republic (1999–2015). The result indicates that in the first two elections, religion did not have a significant impact on VCH but had increasing influence from 2011. Thus, compared with the 1999 and 2003 elections, the effect of faith in 2011 and 2015 elections was positive, but the impact of religion was highest in 2015, having a significant and robust effect on VCH. Thus, the paper demonstrates that impact of faith in the presidential elections in the fourth republic has strengthened over time. This finding is, however, put in the context of each election regarding the role of candidates’ popularity, party-identification, ethnicity, candidates’ performance, the number of candidates contesting the election and the position of prominent leaders of the different regions of the country. The paper demonstrates that placing the influence of religion on vote choice in the context of each election and place-specific manifestation of VCH is pertinent in understanding better how religion shapes voting behaviour in Nigeria.

scholarly journals RACE, JUSTICE, POLICING, AND THE 2016 AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Drakulich ◽  
John Hagan ◽  
Devon Johnson ◽  
Kevin H. Wozniak
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
War On Crime ◽  
Perceptions Of Police ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
Attitudes Toward The Police ◽  
Modern Era

AbstractScholars have long been interested in the intersection of race, crime, justice, and presidential politics, focusing particularly on the “southern strategy” and the “war on crime.” A recent string of highly-publicized citizen deaths at the hands of police and the emergence of the Black Lives Matter movement have brought renewed visibility to this racially-driven intersection, and in particular to issues involving contact with and attitudes toward the police. Using data from the 2016 Pilot Study of the American National Election Studies, this study explores how contact with the criminal justice system and perceptions of police injustice shape political behavior in the modern era, with a specific emphasis on prospective participation and candidate choice in the 2016 presidential election. The results indicate that being stopped by the police—an experience that can feel invasive and unjust—may motivate political participation, while spending time in jail or prison—an experience associated with a marginalization from mainstream civic life—appears to discourage political participation. Perceiving the police as discriminatory also seems to motivate political engagement and participation, though in opposite directions for conservative versus liberal voters. In addition, perceptions of police injustice were related to candidate choice, driving voters away from Donald Trump. Affective feelings about the police were not associated with candidate choice. Perceptions of the police appear to act in part as a proxy for racial resentments, at least among potential voters in the Republican primary. In sum, the intersection of race, justice, and policing remains highly relevant in U.S. politics.

Angry, Passionate, and Divided: Undecided Voters and the 2016 Presidential Election

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 (9) ◽  
pp. 1056-1076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Schill ◽  
Rita Kirk
Keyword(s):  
Focus Group ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
General Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Election Coverage ◽  
Civil Discourse ◽  
Voter Choice ◽  
Early Primary

During the primary and general election, researchers Schill and Kirk collected focus group insights on how undecided voters came to make choices in the 2016 election. As consultants for CNN’s election coverage, the team researched voters from across the nation—in the early primary states to the conventions and general election. After a review of factors that influence vote choice, this article focuses on the dominant expressions of attitude (pain, loss, joy, nostalgia, pleasure, belonging, and anger) during 2016 election period and explains how voter attitudes toward those themes affected voter choice. Not only were these themes manifested in (un)civil discourse, they were often fueled by the campaigns. Importantly, these assessments come from the voters themselves and provide insights as to how the campaigns unfolded and how campaign messages attempted to influence voters.

Interpreting House Midterm Elections: Toward a Measurement of the In-Party's “Expected” Loss of Seats

1967 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 694-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Hinckley
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Large Majority ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
House Election ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Election Studies

Midterm congressional elections have been subjected to relatively little analysis. This is surprising because these elections exhibit three quite striking features which, when taken together, call for further explanation. First, every midterm House election since the Civil War, with the exception of 1934, has brought a net loss of seats to the President's party. Second, in the large majority of elections the net loss has approximated the gross loss. The in-party (i.e., the President's party) seldom has captured seats from the other party to offset its own loss. And third, although the in-party's loss has been persistent, the number of seats lost has varied widely.Attempts to incorporate midterm elections into a broader interpretive framework of American election studies usually stress one of the first two features outlined above. The fact that only the in-party loses—and that its losses are mainly in marginal districts—has led commentators such as V. O. Key Jr. and the authors of The American Voter to interpret these midterm elections as part of the stable, long-term trends in voters' party allegiance.

scholarly journals How negative partisanship affects voting behavior in Europe: Evidence from an analysis of 17 European multi-party systems with proportional voting

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 205316801668663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Jasmin Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Majority Voting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Conservative Christian ◽  
The Comparative Study ◽  
Election Studies

While positive party identification is one of the most used concepts in election studies, negative partisanship (NPID) is rarely analyzed. Evidence from two-party systems or settings with majority voting shows that hostility towards one of the other parties has its own unique impact on voting behavior. However, this effect has not been analyzed in the context of European multi-party systems with proportional voting. In this paper, I utilize data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, Module 3, which demonstrates that negative partisanship has its own positive effect on turnout (about nine percentage points). In addition, negative partisanship affects vote choice by 2–6 percentage points. However, contrary to previous findings, NPID does not always affect voting for one of the other parties; no significant relationship was found between NPID and vote choice for Conservative/Christian Democratic and Liberal parties. The results of this study add to the growing literature on negative partisanship and demonstrate its importance in the analysis of voting behavior in multi-party systems.

The Mobilization of Campaign Activists By the Party Canvass

1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER W. WIELHOUWER
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Participation ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Political Behavior ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
The Political ◽  
Rational Choice Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

This research examines the role of the personal contacting activities of the political parties as mobilizing forces in what Verba and Nie termed campaign activities. A reformulated rational choice model is discussed in which parties seek to reduce certain avoidable and unavoidable costs associated with political participation. Using data from the 1952 through 1994 American National Election Studies, it is shown that the party contact has been and continues to be a major factor in mobilizing campaign activists. Its influence is remarkably robust, maintaining statistical and substantive significance even after controlling for other important factors usually associated with political behavior.

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