scholarly journals A Comparison of Incumbency Across Institutions: A Look at the House, Senate, and Governorships

2005 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 287-303
Author(s):  
Brad Lockerbie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Election Studies

Using the American National Election Studies of 1990, 1994, and 1998, we can see that there is an incumbency advantage for governors, senators, and members of the House of Representatives. There is, however, some variability to the magnitude of the incumbency advantage. Moreover, it appears to follow a rather sensible pattern. It appears to be strongest for members of the House and weakest for Governors. When looking at House elections, we can see that incumbency is more powerful than is party identification. When we look at senatorial and gubernatorial elections, the items appear to be more evenly matched. When we look at evaluations of the national parties performance and expectations of performance, the picture becomes much more muddy. Gubernatorial candidates consistently avoid being held accountable for their national parties past economic performance. Candidates for the House and Senate are largely able to avoid responsibility for the past economic performance of their national parties. Economic expectations, however, are modestly more related to vote choice.

Canada Votes: A Quarter Century of Canadian National Election Studies

1992 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Gidengil
Keyword(s):  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Social Categories ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Sociological Approach ◽  
The Social ◽  
Sociological Approaches ◽  
Election Studies

AbstractThis review essay examines the contribution of the Canadian National Election Studies to understanding vote choice in Canada. Analyses using both the sociological approach and the social-psychological approach are discussed. The essay starts with a review of the debates about the role of class, region and religion in Canadian voting and then goes on to discuss the applicability of the concept of party identification to Canada. An evaluation of both recursive and non-recursive models of vote choice follows. The review calls for social psychological approaches to take the social context of political choice more seriously and points to the need for sociological approaches to conceptualize social categories as live social forces.

scholarly journals How negative partisanship affects voting behavior in Europe: Evidence from an analysis of 17 European multi-party systems with proportional voting

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 205316801668663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Jasmin Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Majority Voting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Conservative Christian ◽  
The Comparative Study ◽  
Election Studies

While positive party identification is one of the most used concepts in election studies, negative partisanship (NPID) is rarely analyzed. Evidence from two-party systems or settings with majority voting shows that hostility towards one of the other parties has its own unique impact on voting behavior. However, this effect has not been analyzed in the context of European multi-party systems with proportional voting. In this paper, I utilize data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, Module 3, which demonstrates that negative partisanship has its own positive effect on turnout (about nine percentage points). In addition, negative partisanship affects vote choice by 2–6 percentage points. However, contrary to previous findings, NPID does not always affect voting for one of the other parties; no significant relationship was found between NPID and vote choice for Conservative/Christian Democratic and Liberal parties. The results of this study add to the growing literature on negative partisanship and demonstrate its importance in the analysis of voting behavior in multi-party systems.

scholarly journals Electoral Reinforcement and the Dynamics of Partisanship Strength

2002 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Andrew J. LoTempio
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
National Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

The partisanship strength of individuals is investigated as dependent upon the cumulative effect of their electoral decisions. Using data from the 1956-1960 and 1972-1976 American National Election Studies (NES), voters who reinforce their party identification through loyal presidential vote choices over their life-cycle were found to experience gains in partisanship strength to a larger degree than those who vote for different parties or who do not vote. Additionally, short-term forces such as defecting from one’s party identification in a single election or casting a split-ticket vote hinder life-cycle gains in partisanship. The totality of the evidence shows that the dynamics of partisanship may be better understood if the absence or presence of electoral reinforcement is accounted for across several presidential elections and across the entire ballot in a single election.

An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-545
Author(s):  
Anne M. Cizmar ◽  
John McTague
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Abstract This paper examines the role of authoritarianism in the 2018 US congressional elections. In particular, we assess whether the issues that have historically been central to the authoritarian divide in the American electorate were salient in the campaigns of several important Senate races. We demonstrate that authoritarian attitudes played a consistent, significant role on presidential vote choice, party identification, and numerous policy areas in the 2016 presidential election using data from the American National Election Studies. Using case studies of six Senate races in the 2018 midterm elections, we find that authoritarianism was more muted than in 2016, and that the role of authoritarianism varied considerably depending upon the race. States with stronger Trump support in 2016 featured authoritarianism more heavily than states with less Trump support in 2016, but authoritarianism overall was not as prominent in 2018 as in 2016. Overall, Senate candidates relied on traditional campaign messages related to candidate qualifications, personal attacks, the economy, and other messages less central to authoritarianism.

Macropartisanship: An Empirical Reassessment

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Abramson ◽  
Charles W. Ostrom
Keyword(s):  
Survey Research ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Research Center ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Surveys ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The U.S

To evaluate the comparability of the Gallup and Michigan Survey Research Center measures for studying levels of partisanship among the U.S. electorate we compare the overtime distribution of partisanship and the correlates of partisanship using the results of Gallup surveys, the National Election Studies, and the General Social Surveys. Compared with the Gallup results, both the other two surveys reveal less short-term variation and also less total variation. Compared with the Gallup results, the National Election Studies partisanship results are less related to short-term electoral outcomes and do not appear to be strongly driven by short-term economic and political evaluations. Our analyses suggest that scholars should be cautious about using Gallup results to revise conclusions based upon analyses that employ the Michigan Survey Research Center party identification measure.

Conclusion

2019 ◽  
pp. 198-222
Author(s):  
Matthew N. Green ◽  
Douglas B. Harris
Keyword(s):  
New Media ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Ethnically Diverse ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Candidate Emergence ◽  
The Past ◽  
Leadership Elections ◽  
The U.S

This chapter reviews the examination of the factors behind candidate emergence and the analyses of vote choice in fourteen contested leadership elections in the U.S. House of Representatives since 1965. It then discusses additional possible explanations of vote choice, how applicable the present findings may be to other legislative settings, and how the politics of leadership races has changed in the past and may change in the years ahead. The chapter concludes that we may see more ethnically diverse leadership candidates than in the past, with voters, interest groups, and new media playing more significant roles in shaping lawmakers' vote choice. However, so long as the central elements shaping the House's leadership elections—the size of the chamber, the service orientation of party leaders, committees and states as the bases for professional connections—do not change, professional connections and salient goals will remain fundamental to how the rank-and-file decide who will lead them.

The Ideological Foundations of Affective Polarization in the U.S. Electorate

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 621-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven W. Webster ◽  
Alan I. Abramowitz
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
National Election ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Close Connection ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
The Past ◽  
Opposing Party ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The U.S

Democratic and Republican partisans dislike the opposing party and its leaders far more than in the past. However, recent studies have argued that the rise of affective polarization in the electorate does not reflect growing policy or ideological differences between supporters of the two parties. According to this view, though Democratic and Republican elites are sharply divided along ideological lines, differences between the policy preferences of rank-and-file partisans remain modest. In this article, we show that there is a close connection between ideological and affective polarization. We present evidence from American National Election Studies surveys that opinions on social welfare issues have become increasingly consistent and divided along party lines and that social welfare ideology is now strongly related to feelings about the opposing party and its leaders. In addition, we present results from a survey experiment showing that ideological distance strongly influences feelings toward opposing party candidates and the party as a whole.

The Incumbency Advantage in the US Congress: A Roller-Coaster Relationship

Politics ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 220-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Stockemer ◽  
Rodrigo Praino
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
American Politics ◽  
Roller Coaster ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Constant Increase ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The 1960S

While every student in American politics knows that the incumbency advantage grew post-1965, it is less clear as to whether or not this growth has been sustainable throughout the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Focusing on the last three decades, we show that the electoral margins of sitting members of the House of Representatives have not linearly grown over the past 60 years. On the contrary, the constant increase in incumbents' vote shares between the 1960s and 1980s could not be sustained in the 1990s. In fact, in the 1990s, the incumbency advantage dropped sharply to levels experienced in the 1960s. In recent years, the electoral margin of sitting House members seems to have grown again to levels comparable to those in the 1970s.

American Religious Traditions, Orthodoxy, and Commitment in Public Opinion toward Torture

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-59
Author(s):  
H. Whitt Kilburn ◽  
Brian J. Fogarty
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Religious Commitment ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
National Election ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
Evangelical Protestants ◽  
Election Studies

AbstractThe conventional wisdom on evangelical American Protestant support for the use of torture on suspected terrorists is incorrect. With data from the 2008 American National Election Studies survey, we specify the interactive influence of religious traditions on attitudes toward torture by religious commitment and belief orthodoxy. Only at low orthodoxy, and low to average commitment, are Catholics, mainline, and black Protestants more likely to support torture than the unaffiliated; the effect for evangelical Protestants is null. Greater commitment moves most traditions and the unaffiliated toward increased opposition to torture. Stronger orthodoxy, however, leads to support for torture only for the unaffiliated. The findings persist given controls for demographic characteristics, party identification, left-right self-placement, and authoritarian values.

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