scholarly journals How negative partisanship affects voting behavior in Europe: Evidence from an analysis of 17 European multi-party systems with proportional voting

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 205316801668663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Jasmin Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Majority Voting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Conservative Christian ◽  
The Comparative Study ◽  
Election Studies

While positive party identification is one of the most used concepts in election studies, negative partisanship (NPID) is rarely analyzed. Evidence from two-party systems or settings with majority voting shows that hostility towards one of the other parties has its own unique impact on voting behavior. However, this effect has not been analyzed in the context of European multi-party systems with proportional voting. In this paper, I utilize data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, Module 3, which demonstrates that negative partisanship has its own positive effect on turnout (about nine percentage points). In addition, negative partisanship affects vote choice by 2–6 percentage points. However, contrary to previous findings, NPID does not always affect voting for one of the other parties; no significant relationship was found between NPID and vote choice for Conservative/Christian Democratic and Liberal parties. The results of this study add to the growing literature on negative partisanship and demonstrate its importance in the analysis of voting behavior in multi-party systems.

The Responsible Congressional Electorate: Watergate, the Economy, and Vote Choice in 1974

1985 ◽  
Vol 79 (3) ◽  
pp. 788-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric M. Uslaner ◽  
M. Margaret Conway
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Other ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Political Studies ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Better Than

Most analyses of the 1974 congressional elections have failed to find significant effects for either Watergate or personal financial conditions, despite the prominence of both of these issues in the campaign. An alternative thesis argues that the effect was indirect, through the selection of better-than-usual Democratic candidates and weaker Republican contestants for House seats. Reanalyzing campaign finance data, we challenge this thesis and then move on to a different type of analysis from that which traditionally has been done in retrospective voting studies. With the use of the 1972-1974 panel of the Center for Political Studies, we examine separately the voting behavior of what V. O. Key, Jr. called “standpatters” and “switchers.” The former are motivated primarily by party identification, with small Watergate effects. Our probit analylsis for switchers, on the other hand, finds much weaker party identification effects, but, interestingly, much more pronounced Watergate and economic impacts. Furthermore, an analysis of the sample compared to the population of districts in 1974 suggests that a more representative sample would lead to even more pronounced impacts for Watergate and the economy than even we have found.

The Class Basis of Arqentine Political Parties

1969 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-167
Author(s):  
Peter G. Snow
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The Other ◽  
Industrial Workers ◽  
Middle Classes ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Social

Students of Latin American political parties have long assumed a strong correlation between social class and party identification, yet this assumption has never been tested empirically in any of the Latin American nations. This is probably due in large part to the lack of reliable survey data; however, even the mass of aggregate voting data has seldom been analyzed systematically. As a result, most of what we know—or think we know—about voting behavior in Latin America is based upon the intuitive assumptions of North American scholars. “If I were a member of the Chilean middle class, I would probably vote for the Radicals or Christian Democrats, but on the other hand if I were quite wealthy I would probably vote for the Conservatives.”Students of Argentine politics assume that the Conservative parties, always representing the interests of the nation's aristocracy, have received the bulk of their votes from the large landowners; that the interests of this group consistently have been opposed by the Radical parties who receive their electoral support from the urban middle classes; and that the more recently formed Peronist parties have championed the cause of, and been supported at the polls by, the industrial workers. It is the purpose of this article to test these assumptions, primarily through analysis of aggregate voting data, but also by examining the social backgrounds of party leaders and their actions while in power.

An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-545
Author(s):  
Anne M. Cizmar ◽  
John McTague
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Abstract This paper examines the role of authoritarianism in the 2018 US congressional elections. In particular, we assess whether the issues that have historically been central to the authoritarian divide in the American electorate were salient in the campaigns of several important Senate races. We demonstrate that authoritarian attitudes played a consistent, significant role on presidential vote choice, party identification, and numerous policy areas in the 2016 presidential election using data from the American National Election Studies. Using case studies of six Senate races in the 2018 midterm elections, we find that authoritarianism was more muted than in 2016, and that the role of authoritarianism varied considerably depending upon the race. States with stronger Trump support in 2016 featured authoritarianism more heavily than states with less Trump support in 2016, but authoritarianism overall was not as prominent in 2018 as in 2016. Overall, Senate candidates relied on traditional campaign messages related to candidate qualifications, personal attacks, the economy, and other messages less central to authoritarianism.

The Cross-National Validity of Party Identification: Great Britain and the United States Compared

1981 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mughan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Social Divisions ◽  
Party Support ◽  
Cleavage Structure ◽  
Cross National

The question of party identification's cross-national validity revolves around the issue of whether or not it can be meaningfully distinguished from immediate voting preference in European national contexts. Comparing this relationship in the American and British party systems, however, this article demonstrates that the two forms of party support are behaviourally similar not in the case of national contexts, but of parties that are linked to the host society's cleavage structure. Moreover, it suggests that their behavioural similarity in the case of this type of party is a function of the ideological distance separating one from the other rather than of the two forms of party support tapping the same dimension of party loyalty. But, whatever the reason for the similarity, the conclusion cannot be avoided that party identification cannot serve the same range of powerful theoretical functions in Europe that it does in the United States because the former's party systems all reflect one or more long-standing, sometimes bitter, social divisions in the electorate.

Canada Votes: A Quarter Century of Canadian National Election Studies

1992 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Gidengil
Keyword(s):  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Social Categories ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Sociological Approach ◽  
The Social ◽  
Sociological Approaches ◽  
Election Studies

AbstractThis review essay examines the contribution of the Canadian National Election Studies to understanding vote choice in Canada. Analyses using both the sociological approach and the social-psychological approach are discussed. The essay starts with a review of the debates about the role of class, region and religion in Canadian voting and then goes on to discuss the applicability of the concept of party identification to Canada. An evaluation of both recursive and non-recursive models of vote choice follows. The review calls for social psychological approaches to take the social context of political choice more seriously and points to the need for sociological approaches to conceptualize social categories as live social forces.

The Politics of American Political Scientists

1971 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 135-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Everett Carll Ladd ◽  
Seymour Martin Lipset
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Faculty Members ◽  
The Other ◽  
Political Views ◽  
General Recognition ◽  
The University

At the heart of the debates which have resounded around political science these past few years are charges and countercharges as to the “politics” of the contenders. Terms likeconservative, liberalandradical areno longer reserved for analysis of positions in the larger society; they have become part of the regular vocabulary with which political scientists evaluate their colleagues. This increase in visible and self-conscious political dissensus extends, of course, throughout the university, but it has left a special mark on political science and the other social sciences where the issues and objects of political disagreement are so enmeshed with the regular subject matter of the discipline.In spite of all of the discussion, and the now seemingly general recognition that the politics of members of the profession has a lot to do with its development and contributions, we still don't have very much firm information on the distribution of political views among the approximately 6,000 faculty members regularly engaged in the teaching of political science in the United States. There have been a number of studies, of course, of party identification and voting behavior, showing political science to be one of the most Democratic fields in academe.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Incumbency Across Institutions: A Look at the House, Senate, and Governorships

2005 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 287-303
Author(s):  
Brad Lockerbie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Election Studies

Using the American National Election Studies of 1990, 1994, and 1998, we can see that there is an incumbency advantage for governors, senators, and members of the House of Representatives. There is, however, some variability to the magnitude of the incumbency advantage. Moreover, it appears to follow a rather sensible pattern. It appears to be strongest for members of the House and weakest for Governors. When looking at House elections, we can see that incumbency is more powerful than is party identification. When we look at senatorial and gubernatorial elections, the items appear to be more evenly matched. When we look at evaluations of the national parties performance and expectations of performance, the picture becomes much more muddy. Gubernatorial candidates consistently avoid being held accountable for their national parties past economic performance. Candidates for the House and Senate are largely able to avoid responsibility for the past economic performance of their national parties. Economic expectations, however, are modestly more related to vote choice.

scholarly journals Economic perceptions and voting behavior in US presidential elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 205316802097281
Author(s):  
Colin Lewis-Beck ◽  
Nicholas F. Martini
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Economic Perceptions

The economic voting literature disagrees over the exogeneity of economic perceptions on individual electoral behavior. One side argues that economic perceptions are driven by partisan dispositions, which then calls into question the substantive importance of this factor in assessing electoral behavior. A second side argues that voters rationally assess the economy and accurately use this information to inform their electoral behavior. This article addresses this disagreement by disentangling economic perceptions from partisan dispositions. Using data from the American National Election Study from 1968 to 2016, we link objective macroeconomic indicators to individual economic perceptions, and then assess its explanatory power on vote choice in US presidential elections. The results indicate that objective economic perceptions have a substantive impact on support for incumbent candidates. Moreover, the estimated effect sizes are consistent with previous research estimating the relative importance of party identification and economic perceptions on vote choice.

scholarly journals The Dimensions of Partisanship in Canada

1993 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 445-463
Author(s):  
Eric M. Uslaner
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Historical Account ◽  
Provincial Level ◽  
Form Part ◽  
Distinct Dimension ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
Dual Identification

Canadians are said to have weaker partisanship than Americans. Most particularly, many Canadians identify with different parties at the federal and provincial level. To what extent does this dual identification form part of a syndrome of weak partisanship, as institutionalist theories of Canadian partisanship would suggest? LISREL modeling of attitudes toward parties in the 1974-1979 panel of the Canadian National Election Studies finds little support for such an institutionalist view. Instead, Canadians have complex schemata for evaluating parties. Dual identification forms a distinct dimension. There are four other factors: temporal stability for both party identification and voting behavior, the strength of identification at both the federal and provincial levels, and separate dimensions for federal and provincial partisanship. These results provide support for a cultural/historical account, especially given the distinctiveness of schemata for Quebec and British Columbia.

HISPANICS PARA TRUMP?

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 457-487
Author(s):  
Rudy Alamillo
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Hispanic Americans ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Hispanic Voters ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
2012 Election ◽  
Better Than

AbstractLittle has been written about the Hispanic Americans who voted for Donald Trump. Despite his comments about Mexicans and immigrants, data suggest that Trump performed as well or better than Mitt Romney among Hispanic voters. Using the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, this paper examines Hispanic support for Trump by looking at traditional predictors of vote choice such as party identification and ideology, as well as a novel measure of racism: denial of racism. This paper finds that, like non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanics higher in denial of racism were more likely to vote Trump in 2016, as well as for Romney in the 2012 election. In addition, denial of racism is the strongest predictor of support for Trump among Hispanics, above even party identification and ideology. This suggests that while Trump’s rhetoric may not appeal to most Hispanic voters, it strongly appeals to those that hold disproportionately high levels of denial of racism. I offer some theoretical reasons for these findings and discuss the role that denial of racism plays in predicting voting behavior.

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