scholarly journals Growth at Risk From Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (054) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Michael T. Kiley ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Average Level ◽  
Quantile Regressions ◽  
Effects Of Temperature

How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate change may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.

scholarly journals Assessing climate impacts on English economic growth (1645–1740): an econometric approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Luis Martinez-Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Agricultural Revolution ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
Industrial Economic

<p>British pre-industrial economic growth has traditionally been analysed from the Malthusian point of view and other more optimistic approaches, but in many cases, ignoring environmental factors. This article explores the inclusion of the climate in this general debate, focusing on one of the colder periods of the last 500 years, known as the Maunder Minimum. The provisional results suggest that climate change and the resulting adaptations may have influenced the start of the English Agricultural Revolution, the Energy Transition and the European Divergence. However, from an econometric point of view these results are not fully conclusive, making it necessary to continue working with better primary sources and other alternative methodologies.</p>

scholarly journals Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Pretis ◽  
Moritz Schwarz ◽  
Kevin Tang ◽  
Karsten Haustein ◽  
Myles R. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Income ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Warming World

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Teresa Mannion and the Emergence of Extreme Weather Culture in Ireland

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-150
Author(s):  
Diane Negra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Popular Culture ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Viral Video ◽  
Cultural Information ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Risk Coverage

In this article I consider how registers of weather media carry/convey cultural information, specifically how texts about extreme weather articulate with investment in a supposed post-recession restored normality marked by the Irish government's commitment to deregulated transnational capitalism. I maintain that, in a process of cross-cultural remediation, sensationalist codes of US weather media that discursively manage awareness of systemic climate problems are just starting to infiltrate the Irish broadcasting environment. In early December 2015 RTÉ’s Teresa Mannion covered a strong gale, Storm Desmond, amidst inclement conditions in Salthill, Co Galway. Modelling the kind of ‘body at risk’ coverage consummately performed by US Weather Channel personnel, Mannion could barely speak over the lashing rain and strong winds in a dramatic broadcast that quickly became a viral video. This article analyses the fascination with Mannion's piece and its memetic, and attends to the nature of the pleasure taken in her on-camera discomfiture and the breach of gendered territory committed by Mannion at a time when national popular culture in Ireland is under increased obligation to identify and explain climate change-related extreme weather.

2018 Nobel Economics Prize: Integrating Climate Change Measures into Sustainable Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Thuc An ◽  
Dau Kieu Ngoc Anh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Endogenous Growth Theory ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The 2018 Nobel Economics Prize was awarded to two American economists - William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer - who designed methods for better assessing environmental issues and technological advances on growth. This year’s Laureates, Nordhaus was the first person to create an intergrated model to assess interactions between society and nature and Romer laid the foundation for what is now called endogenous growth theory. According to the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, these two macroeconomists’ research have helped “significantly broaden the scope of economic analysis by constructing models that explain how the market economy interacts with nature and knowledge” which integrates climate change measures into long-term sustainable economic growth. Keywords Nobel in economics, William D. Nordhaus, Paul M. Romer, climate change, endogenous growth theory, economic growth References [1] Y Vân (2018), “Lý lịch 'khủng' của hai nhà khoa học vừa giành giải Nobel Kinh tế 2018”, Vietnambiz, đăng tải ngày 08/10/2018, https://vietnambiz.vn/ly-lich-khung-cua-hai-nha-khoa-hoc-vua-gianh-giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-95776.html[2] Jonas O. Bergman, Rich Miller (2018), “Nordhaus, Romer Win Nobel for Thinking on Climate, Innovation”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/nordhaus-romer-win-2018-nobel-prize-in-economic-sciences [3] Antonin Pottier (2018), “Giải Nobel” William Nordhaus có thật sự nghiêm túc?”, Nguyễn Đôn Phước dịch, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/giai-nobel-william-nordhaus-co-that-su.html[4] Thăng Điệp (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018 về tay hai người Mỹ”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, http://vneconomy.vn/giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-ve-tay-hai-nguoi-my-20181008185809239.htm[5] Lars P. Syll (2018), “Cuối cùng - Paul Romer cũng có được giải thưởng Nobel”, Huỳnh Thiện Quốc Việt dịch, đăng tải ngày 14/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/cuoi-cung-paul-romer-cung-co-uoc-giai.html[6] Phương Võ (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế 2018: Chạm tới bài toán khó của thời đại”, đăng tải ngày 9/10/2018, https://nld.com.vn/thoi-su-quoc-te/nobel-kinh-te-2018-cham-toi-bai-toan-kho-cua-thoi-dai-20181008221734228.htm[7] Đông Phong (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế cho giải pháp phát triển bền vững và phúc lợi người dân”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://news.zing.vn/nobel-kinh-te-cho-giai-phap-phat-trien-ben-vung-va-phuc-loi-nguoi-dan-post882860.html[8] Thanh Trúc (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018: Thay đổi tư duy về biến đổi khí hậu”, https://tusach.thuvienkhoahoc.com/wiki/Gi%E1%BA%A3i_Nobel_kinh_t%E1%BA%BF_2018:_Thay_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_t%C6%B0_duy_v%E1%BB%81_bi%E1%BA%BFn_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_kh%C3%AD_h%E1%BA%ADu[9] Cẩm Anh (2018), “Nobel kinh tế 2018: Lời giải cho tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững”, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://enternews.vn/nobel-kinh-te-2018-loi-giai-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-ben-vung-137600.html.

The use of statistical methods in the analysis of mobile payment market in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-50
Author(s):  
Artur Borcuch
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Initial Phase ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Mobile Payment ◽  
Human History ◽  
Payment Systems ◽  
Mobile Payments ◽  
Payment Instruments

Payments are an inherent element of economic activity (León and Ortega 2018). However, the evolution of payment instruments and the way individuals and businesses make daily payments has undergone enormous change in human history, particularly due to main innovations in payment systems in last decades (Gandhi 2016). The last innovation in payment system concerns mobile payment. The development of mobile payments market can have a positive impact on economic growth (Leon and Rodriguez 2012). Although the Polish market of mobile payments is in the initial phase of development, it is one of the pioneering and leading in Europe and globally. The main purpose of this article is to analyze, which feature (convenience, speed, availability, ease of use, safety) of mobile payments could be the most important for users from Poland.

Managing African Urbanization in the Context of Environmental Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuaib Lwasa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Governance ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Urbanization Rate ◽  
Development And Management

Africa’s urbanization rate has increased steadily over the past three decades and is reported to be faster than in any other region in the world . It is estimated that by 2030, over half of the African population will be living in urban areas . But the nature of Africa’s urbanization and subsequent form of cities is yet to be critically analyzed in the context of city authorities’ readiness to address the challenges . Evidence is also suggesting that urbanization in African countries is increasingly associated with the high economic growth that has been observed in the last two decades . Both underlying and proximate drivers are responsible for the urbanization, and these include population dynamics, economic growth, legislative designation, increasing densities in rural centers, as well as the growth of mega cities such as Lagos, Cairo and Kinshasa, that are extending to form urban corridors . With the opportunities of urbanization in Sub–Saharan Africa, there are also challenges in the development and management of these cities . Those challenges include provision of social services, sustainable economic development, housing development, urban governance, spatial development guidance and environmental management, climate change adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction . The challenge involves dealing with the development and infrastructure deficit, in addition to required adaption to and mitigation of climate change . This paper examines the current state of urban management in Africa .

scholarly journals Climate Change Inaction and Optimism

Philosophies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Philip J. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Collective Action Problem ◽  
The Public ◽  
Policy Context ◽  
Positive Action ◽  
Ideological Fantasy

The problem of climate change inaction is sometimes said to be ‘wicked’, or essentially insoluble, and it has also been seen as a collective action problem, which is correct but inconsequential. In the absence of progress, much is made of various frailties of the public, hence the need for an optimistic tone in public discourse to overcome fatalism and encourage positive action. This argument is immaterial without meaningful action in the first place, and to favour what amounts to the suppression of truth over intellectual openness is in any case disreputable. ‘Optimism’ is also vexed in this context, often having been opposed to the sombre mood of environmentalists by advocates of economic growth. The greater mental impediments are ideological fantasy, which is blind to the contradictions in public discourse, and the misapprehension that if optimism is appropriate in one social or policy context it must be appropriate in others. Optimism, far from spurring climate change action, fosters inaction.

scholarly journals Post COVID-19 Recovery and 2050 Climate Change Targets: Changing the Emphasis from Promotion of Renewables to Mandated Curtailment of Fossil Fuels in the EU Policies

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1347
Author(s):  
Kyriakos Maniatis ◽  
David Chiaramonti ◽  
Eric van den Heuvel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
European Union ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The European Union

The present work considers the dramatic changes the COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the global economy, with particular emphasis on energy. Focusing on the European Union, the article discusses the opportunities policy makers can implement to reduce the climate impacts and achieve the Paris Agreement 2050 targets. The analysis specifically looks at the fossil fuels industry and the future of the fossil sector post COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis first revises the fossil fuel sector, and then considers the need for a shift of the global climate change policy from promoting the deployment of renewable energy sources to curtailing the use of fossil fuels. This will be a change to the current global approach, from a relative passive one to a strategically dynamic and proactive one. Such a curtailment should be based on actual volumes of fossil fuels used and not on percentages. Finally, conclusions are preliminary applied to the European Union policies for net zero by 2050 based on a two-fold strategy: continuing and reinforcing the implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive to 2035, while adopting a new directive for fixed and over time increasing curtailment of fossils as of 2025 until 2050.

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

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